Bitcoin Edge
Same underlying. Two pricing channels. We surface the gap on every active Kalshi bitcoin strike, in real time.
Every signal is logged and auto-graded at settlement. 22 settled so far — we publish the full W-L once it clears a meaningful sample.
Already settled — Bitcoin Edge
latest Sep 4The last 6 calls this engine made that have already resolved, win or lose, with the price it flagged and the model probability behind it. Every pick is logged when it is made and graded automatically at settlement.
| Settled | Market | Side | Kalshi | Model | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4 | Bitcoin KXBTCD-26SEP0411 @ 78899.99 | YES | 82¢ | 95% | +13.4pp | Hit |
| Sep 4 | Bitcoin KXBTCD-26SEP0410 @ 78999.99 | YES | 84¢ | 96% | +12.8pp | Hit |
| Sep 3 | Bitcoin KXBTCD-26SEP0316 @ 81399.99 | YES | 32¢ | 42% | +10.6pp | Hit |
| Sep 3 | Bitcoin KXBTCD-26SEP0311 @ 78999.99 | YES | 27¢ | 35% | +8.1pp | Hit |
| Sep 2 | Bitcoin KXBTCD-26SEP0216 @ 77499.99 | YES | 22¢ | 32% | +10.7pp | Miss |
| Sep 2 | Bitcoin KXBTCD-26SEP0215 @ 77499.99 | YES | 22¢ | 30% | +8.2pp | Miss |
Settled calls only — live flags are the Pro board. See today’s scan with Pro → $7.50 first month, then $14.99/mo.
Quick Answer
Bitcoin Edge surfaces every strike where the IBIT-options-implied probability and the Kalshi YES price diverge on KXBTCD, Kalshi's hourly bitcoin market that settles on the CF Benchmarks BRTI rate. It runs across the seven hourly settles per weekday and flags HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence — treat a flag as a shortlist to investigate, not an automatic trade.
What Is the Bitcoin Edge Tool?
Kalshi's KXBTCD market settles a new bitcoin contract at the top of every hour on a public CF Benchmarks bitcoin reference index. IBIT options on the same underlying settle through a different microstructure with the same outcome. The Bitcoin Edge tool extracts the probability the IBIT options book is implying, compares it to the Kalshi YES contract price on every active strike, and flags the gaps.
The free tier shows the headline — spot, ATM IV, hours to close, and the direction of the current top edge. The Pro grid below shows every strike with the signed edge in percentage points, the rationale, and direct trade links to Kalshi (with referral) and Robinhood (for the IBIT options hedge).
Version 2.1 — Momentum, Shrunk and Checked
The model carries a short-horizon momentum term, and it is deliberately small. An earlier version leaned on it much harder: for a week it claimed an average probability near 79% on contracts the market was pricing near 50, and those signals resolved at 48%. The market was right and the model was not. In August 2026 we cut the momentum influence by roughly 60%, capped how far it can move any single estimate, and reset the published track record so this version is measured only on its own results.
The tool also scores itself against its own settled record every week, fitting a correction curve from what it claimed against what actually happened. That correction only takes over the published numbers once it beats both the uncorrected model and the market's own accuracy on signals it has never seen. Until it clears that bar it runs in the background, and the tool holds its own confidence tier down rather than advertising conviction it has not earned.
How to Use It
Start with the HIGH confidence rows — those passed all four liquidity guards (edge, distance from spot, spread, volume). Cross-check the rationale for any caveat. Click through to Kalshi to verify the live market before sizing. Then optionally enter the matching IBIT option on Robinhood as a directional hedge.
Engine's doing NFL research
Markets are closed. Live signals resume Tuesday at 10:05 AM ET.
Table below shown as historical reference — click-throughs disabled until reopen.
No snapshot available yet
The Bitcoin Edge pipeline runs in real time during US options market hours and pauses overnight while the IBIT chain is closed. Live edge calculations resume Tuesday at 10:05 AM ET — check back when markets are open, or read the methodology below for how the tool works.
Bitcoin across venues
Every prediction market we can quote a Bitcoin contract from, with that venue’s own price on its own contract. These are different questions — Kalshi settles hourly on the BRTI, Polymarket’s ladders settle daily, monthly or on a touch — so nothing here is subtracted from anything else. The edge on this page stays where the question is identical: IBIT options against KXBTCD.
KXBTCD — hourly, settles on the CF Benchmarks BRTI at the top of each hour. The contract Bitcoin Edge prices above.
no live KXBTCD snapshot right now
Daily "above $X on <date>" ladders, monthly "reach/dip" touches and up-or-down contracts, each on its own settlement time and reference — not the hourly KXBTCD question.
| Contract | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 6?daily | 100% 100–100c | Trade → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 6?daily | 1% 0–1c | Trade → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 6?daily | 0% 0–0c | Trade → |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?dip | 2% 2–2c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on September 6?daily | 70% 69–70c | Trade → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 6?daily | 100% 100–100c | Trade → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 6?daily | 100% 100–100c | Trade → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 6?daily | 52% 51–52c | Trade → |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?dip | 53% 52–53c | Trade → |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 31-September 6?dip | 1% 1–1c | Trade → |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?reach | 7% 7–7c | Trade → |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7?daily | 94% 93–94c | Trade → |
as of Sep 6, 6:50 AM ET · two-sided books only, by 24h volume
A separate CFTC-regulated exchange with its own order book — prices are not interchangeable with the international book above.
| Contract | YES | |
|---|---|---|
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k? | 5% 4–6c | Trade → |
| When will Bitcoin hit $150k? | 12% 5–18c | Trade → |
| How high will Bitcoin get this year?reach | 25% 19–30c | Trade → |
| How high will Bitcoin get this year?reach | 7% 5–8c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 6% 4–8c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 26% 25–27c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 9% 8–10c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 3% 2–3c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 3% 2–3c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 5% 3–6c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 2% 1–3c | Trade → |
| Bitcoin price at the end of 2026? | 7% 6–7c | Trade → |
as of Sep 6, 7:28 AM ET · two-sided books only, by 24h volume
Lists the same Kalshi KXBTCD contract (Kalshi is the exchange; Coinbase is the front end).
same Kalshi contract
Resells Kalshi event contracts inside its prediction-markets hub.
open Robinhood → Predictions and search Bitcoin
Polymarket prices come from its international book and, separately, Polymarket US — two exchanges, two order books. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes a price or the model. Disclosure.
Preseason offer
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$75 for the first year, or $7.50 for the first month. Code applies automatically. Ends Sep 10.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Related Tools
Why IBIT Options and Kalshi Disagree on Bitcoin
Bitcoin is the rare commodity-style market where two different US venues quote the same outcome with materially different microstructures. Kalshi's KXBTCD hourly flow is dominated by retail directional traders sizing in 1–10 contract clips. IBIT options are priced by professional market makers running risk-neutral hedging books with deep institutional flow. Two different markets, two different price discovery channels, one underlying asset.
When retail flow leaves a Kalshi strike at 25¢ and the IBIT options book is implying 45% on the same outcome, the gross gap is 20pp. Round-trip trading cost on Kalshi (bid-ask + fees) is typically 5pp on liquid bitcoin contracts, leaving roughly +15pp of expected-value edge after slippage. That is not noise — it is two markets on the same asset that have not agreed on the same number yet.
The Edge in pp
The Bitcoin Edge tool reports gaps in percentage points (pp). A +20pp edge on a BUY YES means the options book is pricing the YES outcome 20 percentage points higher than the Kalshi YES contract. The Kalshi contract pays out $1 if the event happens — pricing it below the options-implied probability is a direct expected-value edge.
Confidence tiers gate the rows by liquidity, not just edge size. A 40pp edge on a strike with zero 24h volume is not actionable. We require ≥100 contracts of recent volume, a tight bid-ask, and a strike within ±5% of spot for the HIGH tier. Outside those guards, the rationale field flags the specific reason the row dropped to MEDIUM or LOW.
The Hedge
The Robinhood link on each row goes to the IBIT option position that mirrors the Kalshi contract. Entering both legs neutralizes most of the directional risk and turns the trade into a pure mispricing capture. Sizing is 2% of trading account per Kalshi leg, 5% combined across correlated strikes — the methodology block below has the exact thresholds and caveats.
Kalshi Bitcoin Markets by Frequency
Kalshi runs bitcoin contracts at six cadences — 15-minute, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly — all settled on the same CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index. This tool prices the hourly rung, where a live IBIT options chain gives an independent second opinion; daily/weekly/monthly coverage is in progress. The full breakdown:
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Kalshi bitcoin hourly edge?
The Kalshi bitcoin hourly edge is the gap between an independent options-implied fair probability and Kalshi's own YES price on the KXBTCD hourly market — the strike ladder that settles a fresh 'bitcoin above $X?' contract at the top of every hour. Bitcoin Edge computes that gap for each live strike across the seven hourly settles per weekday (10 AM–4 PM ET, while the US options market is open), nets it against the round-trip trading cost, and flags the survivors BUY YES / BUY NO / PASS at HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence. It is the one Kalshi market with an independent second opinion on fair value, which is why the hourly edge exists there and not on most contracts.
What is the Bitcoin Edge tool?
The Bitcoin Edge tool compares the model-implied probability of bitcoin closing above each strike on Kalshi's hourly KXBTCD market against Kalshi's own YES contract price for that strike, for the seven hourly settles per weekday that are covered by a live IBIT options chain. When the two diverge by more than the round-trip trading cost, the tool flags the strike as a tradeable edge — BUY YES, BUY NO, or PASS — with HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW confidence. The snapshot updates in real time during US options market hours.
How does Kalshi settle the KXBTCD bitcoin market?
Kalshi's KXBTCD market is a strike ladder that settles a new contract at the top of every hour, around the clock. Each strike is a 'Bitcoin price above $X at the close?' binary contract. Settlement reads CF Benchmarks' BRTI bitcoin reference index as a 60-second TWAP over the minute leading up to the hour — published in the Kalshi series metadata under settlement_sources. Our spot reference is the canonical Crypto.BTC/USD feed from Pyth Hermes, which tracks the same underlying market. Bitcoin Edge only signals on the seven hourly settles per weekday from 10 AM through 4 PM ET, when the IBIT options chain is open for trading.
Where do the options-implied probabilities come from?
We run real-time market analysis on the IBIT (BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF) option market — the most liquid US spot-BTC ETF. IBIT tracks BTC at a known ETF-to-spot ratio. We compute the implied volatility per strike and back-solve from quoted mid using Brent's method on Black-Scholes where needed. The risk-neutral probability that spot finishes above strike K is then N(d2) from the Black-Scholes formula.
Why pause snapshots overnight if bitcoin trades 24/7?
Bitcoin spot trades 24/7 but US options on IBIT trade 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET only. Outside those hours the IBIT chain freezes — running edge math against a stale IV smile while spot keeps moving would surface basis-mismatch artifacts that look actionable but aren't. The engine deliberately pauses snapshot writes overnight and resumes at the next US market open. The 60-minute burst window before each KXBTCD event close still fires.
What confidence levels does the Bitcoin Edge tool use?
HIGH — edge ≥ 15pp, strike within ±5% of spot, option bid-ask spread tight, Kalshi 24h volume ≥ 100 contracts. MEDIUM — edge ≥ 10pp with one liquidity guard failing. LOW — edge between 5pp and 10pp or wide spreads. PASS — edge below 5pp or insufficient liquidity. BTC IV runs higher than the metal commodities (typically 50–80% annualized vs 25–35% for silver/gold), so the tier thresholds are tighter than the silver/gold version of the tool.
What's the practical workflow for trading a Bitcoin Edge call?
Take the BUY YES position on Kalshi at the listed strike. Optionally hedge the directional exposure with the matching IBIT option position on Robinhood — same spot-BTC exposure, settles inside the same US options window. Hold to the KXBTCD hourly close (the BRTI print at the top of the hour). Size to no more than 2% of trading account per position. Do not stack multiple correlated strikes in the same direction beyond 5% combined.
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