Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
Wednesday, November 25, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 6 in Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams, NFL Week 12 2026 — 67% to win, and Rams 1st of 32, Packers 5th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Rams at 62c or below (or Packers at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
GB
+2.9
LA
+6.3
Packers
33%
model win prob
Rams
67%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLARhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Rams at 62c or below, or the Packers at 28c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Wednesday night's number, and what would make it a position
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams kicks off on Wednesday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Rams at +6.3 (1st of 32, Playoff tier) against the Packers at +2.9 (5th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Rams by 6 and 67% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.5 (15th) — 4.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+3.2, 5th) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 1.3-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.5 (15th) — 4.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+3.2, 5th) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 1.3-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Rams at 11.3 wins (favored in 16 of 17) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 10th-hardest game on the Rams' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Packers'. Nothing on the Packers' schedule projects harder than this one.
One team has owned this series: the Packers are 10-3 in 13 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Packers won 24-19 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Rams are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Rams here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Rams 67%, Packers 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Rams contracts a buy at 62c or below and Packers contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Rams — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Rams in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Rams by 6 points, a 67% win probability over the Packers. The Rams rate 1st of 32 (+6.3) and the Packers 5th (+2.9); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Packers vs Rams?
Rams offense (+4.2, 1st of 32) against Packers defense (-0.5, 15th) — 4.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Rams?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Rams at 62c or below, or the Packers at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Rams host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the Los Angeles Rams on Wednesday, November 25, 2026 — a Wednesday game in NFL Week 12, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Rams and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Rams at 11.3 wins (favored in 16) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Rams?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Rams at 67% over the Packers sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.