Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
Updated · model ratings
Wednesday, November 25, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 4.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams, NFL Week 12 2026 — 64% to win, and Rams 3rd of 32, Packers 5th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Rams at 59c or below (or Packers at 31c or below) is where the model would take a position.
GB
+3.0
LAR
+5.1
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Packers
36%
model win prob
Rams
64%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
35%
Madden 27
65%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Rams at 59c or below, or the Packers at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Packers at Rams
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Rams −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Rams −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Wednesday night's number, and what would make it a position
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams kicks off on Wednesday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Rams at +5.1 (3rd of 32, Contender tier) against the Packers at +3.0 (5th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Rams by 4.5 and 64% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.5 (14th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+3.3, 5th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 2.6-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a Packers defense at -0.5 (14th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+3.3, 5th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 2.6-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.6 projected wins for the Rams against 9.7 for the Packers, favored in 16 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Packers'.
One team has owned this series: the Packers are 10-3 in 13 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2024: Packers won 24-19 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Rams are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 64% on the Rams here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Rams 64%, Packers 36%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Rams contracts a buy at 59c or below and Packers contracts a buy at 31c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Packers vs Rams on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR
- Market-implied (Rams)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Rams)
- 64%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Rams at 59c or below, or the Packers at 31c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Packers vs Rams trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Rams | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Packers vs Rams — frequently asked
Who is favored in Packers vs Rams in Week 12?
Our power-rating model picks the Rams by 4.5 points, a 64% win probability over the Packers, for a projected score of Rams 28, Packers 23 on a ratings-implied 51.4-point total. The Rams rate 3rd of 32 (+5.1) and the Packers 5th (+3.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Packers vs Rams?
Rams offense (+4.3, 1st of 32) against Packers defense (-0.5, 14th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Packers vs Rams?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Rams at 59c or below, or the Packers at 31c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Rams host the Packers?
Green Bay Packers visit the Los Angeles Rams on Wednesday, November 25, 2026 — a Wednesday game in NFL Week 12, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.
What does the model project for the Rams and Packers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Rams at 10.6 wins (favored in 16) and the Packers at 9.7 (favored in 13). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Packers', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Packers vs Rams?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Rams at 59c or below or the Packers at 31c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
Can you trade Packers vs Rams on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 12 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV25GBLAR. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 64% on a team like the Rams?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Rams at 64% over the Packers sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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