NFL Week 7 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated Β· market prices
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, our Week 7 calls: the model sides with the market favorite in all 11 called games straight up. The model disagrees with the Kalshi price on 4 of 14 games; the widest gap is Colts at 33% to win versus Kalshi's 32Β’. 3 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed.
Next widest: Browns at 55% to win versus Kalshi's 53Β’; Packers at 38% to win versus Kalshi's 37Β’.
Every game below carries the published win probability, the Kalshi price, and the gap between them β plus the straight-up winner and the model's lean.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles Β· DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 7 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Patriots at Bears β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Steelers at Saints β Winner: Steelers (55%)
- 49ers at Falcons β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Bengals at Ravens β QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmed
- Buccaneers at Panthers β Winner: Panthers (59%)
- Giants at Texans β Winner: Texans (75%)
- Colts at Vikings β Winner: Vikings (67%) Β· The play: Colts β€ 32Β’
- Dolphins at Jets β Winner: Jets (65%)
- Browns at Titans β Winner: Browns (55%) Β· The play: Browns β€ 53Β’
- Broncos at Cardinals β Winner: Broncos (67%)
- Packers at Lions β Winner: Lions (62%) Β· The play: Packers β€ 37Β’
- Rams at Raiders β Winner: Rams (72%)
- Chiefs at Seahawks β Winner: Seahawks (59%) Β· The play: Seahawks β€ 57Β’
- Cowboys at Eagles β Winner: Eagles (50%)
All 14 Week 7 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the modelβs own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market β β the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week β the defensive injury cluster board.
This week's Oracle Forks
A starting quarterback isn't confirmed, so we publish both lines. They collapse to one when the team names its starter.
- Patriots at Bears β Caleb Williams unconfirmed βWith Caleb WilliamsBears by 1Without Caleb WilliamsPatriots by 3.5MarketBears by 2.5
- 49ers at Falcons β Michael Penix unconfirmed βWith Michael PenixPick'emWithout Michael Penix49ers by 4.5Market49ers by 4.5
- Bengals at Ravens β Lamar Jackson unconfirmed βWith Lamar JacksonRavens by 3Without Lamar JacksonBengals by 1.5MarketRavens by 3.5
Live: every Week 7 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board β
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
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All tools βWeek 7 straight-up picks
Kalshi has priced 11 of these 14 games and our published probability is anchored to the market on each, so the straight-up pick matches the market favorite by construction β that agreement is the method, not a finding. Widest disagreement this week: our own ratings line sits 4.6 points closer to the Panthers than the market's, a read we grade separately and never publish as an edge. 3 games are held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, so they carry no call yet.
- Patriots at Bears Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ53.5Β’
- Steelers over Saints55%57Β’
- 49ers at Falcons Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ67.5Β’
- Bengals at Ravens Β· QB pending: updates when both starters are confirmedβ62.5Β’
- Panthers over Buccaneers59%60Β’
- Texans over Giants75%75Β’
- Vikings over Colts67%70Β’
- Jets over Dolphins65%66Β’
- Browns over Titans55%53Β’
- Broncos over Cardinals67%69Β’
- Lions over Packers62%64.5Β’
- Rams over Raiders72%73Β’
- Seahawks over Chiefs59%56.5Β’
- Eagles over Cowboys50%51.5Β’
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored β it is the marketβs number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the modelβs own read. The modelβs separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winnerβs contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play β the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
NE
+3.9
CHI
+2.2
IND
-0.7
MIN
+0.0
CLE
-0.9
TEN
-4.9
What moved on Kalshi since yesterday
Change in the Kalshi contract price for that side to win, in cents of probability, between the two most recent daily captures (as of October 15, 2026). A move is a price change, not a call.
NFL Week 7 predictions β frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 7 2026?
The fair value (books) disagrees with the Kalshi price by 2 points net of the book's spread on 4 of 14 Week 7 games. The biggest gap is Colts at Vikings, where the pick is the Colts at a 33% win probability against a Kalshi price of 32Β’. Every game's pick, line and edge is in the board above.
How are these NFL Week 7 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability β the fair value (books) once a game is priced β minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54Β’. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 7 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 7 games, with its win probability. Patriots at Bears (QB pending); Steelers over Saints (55%); 49ers at Falcons (QB pending); Bengals at Ravens (QB pending); Panthers over Buccaneers (59%); Texans over Giants (75%); Vikings over Colts (67%); Jets over Dolphins (65%); Browns over Titans (55%); Broncos over Cardinals (67%); Lions over Packers (62%); Rams over Raiders (72%); Seahawks over Chiefs (59%); Eagles over Cowboys (50%). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50Β’ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls β the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
How often are the Week 7 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the modelβs own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β trade responsibly.