NFL Week 7 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 7 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 14 games is the Rams at 78% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 7 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Patriots at Bears — Model winner: Patriots (53%)
- Steelers at Saints — Model winner: Steelers (55%)
- 49ers at Falcons — Model winner: Falcons (54%)
- Bengals at Ravens — Model winner: Ravens (64%)
- Buccaneers at Panthers — Model winner: Panthers (56%)
- Giants at Texans — Model winner: Texans (65%)
- Colts at Vikings — Model winner: Vikings (51%)
- Dolphins at Jets — Model winner: Jets (55%)
- Browns at Titans — Model winner: Titans (54%)
- Broncos at Cardinals — Model winner: Broncos (57%)
- Packers at Lions — Model winner: Lions (56%)
- Rams at Raiders — Model winner: Rams (78%)
- Chiefs at Seahawks — Model winner: Seahawks (68%)
- Cowboys at Eagles — Model winner: Eagles (58%)
All 14 Week 7 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
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Week 7 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Patriots over Bears53%—
- Steelers over Saints55%—
- Falcons over 49ers54%—
- Ravens over Bengals64%—
- Panthers over Buccaneers56%—
- Texans over Giants65%—
- Vikings over Colts51%—
- Jets over Dolphins55%—
- Titans over Browns54%—
- Broncos over Cardinals57%—
- Lions over Packers56%—
- Rams over Raiders78%—
- Seahawks over Chiefs68%—
- Eagles over Cowboys58%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 7 projected scores
- PatriotsatBears25.6–24.249.8
- SteelersatSaints22.3–20.542.9
- 49ersatFalcons25.0–26.151.1
- BengalsatRavens21.8–26.348.1
- BuccaneersatPanthers22.3–24.246.5
- GiantsatTexans18.8–24.343.1
- ColtsatVikings22.4–22.444.8
- DolphinsatJets21.3–22.944.2
- BrownsatTitans18.0–19.037.0
- BroncosatCardinals24.5–22.046.4
- PackersatLions23.2–25.248.4
- RamsatRaiders27.1–18.345.4
- ChiefsatSeahawks18.2–26.945.1
- CowboysatEagles23.8–26.550.3
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 7 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 7 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 7 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 14 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 7 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 7 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 7 games, with its win probability. Patriots over Bears (53%); Steelers over Saints (55%); Falcons over 49ers (54%); Ravens over Bengals (64%); Panthers over Buccaneers (56%); Texans over Giants (65%); Vikings over Colts (51%); Jets over Dolphins (55%); Titans over Browns (54%); Broncos over Cardinals (57%); Lions over Packers (56%); Rams over Raiders (78%); Seahawks over Chiefs (68%); Eagles over Cowboys (58%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 7?
Projected scores, winner first: Patriots 25.6, Bears 24.2; Steelers 22.3, Saints 20.5; Falcons 26.1, 49ers 25.0; Ravens 26.3, Bengals 21.8; Panthers 24.2, Buccaneers 22.3; Texans 24.3, Giants 18.8; Vikings 22.4, Colts 22.4; Jets 22.9, Dolphins 21.3; Titans 19.0, Browns 18.0; Broncos 24.5, Cardinals 22.0; Lions 25.2, Packers 23.2; Rams 27.1, Raiders 18.3; Seahawks 26.9, Chiefs 18.2; Eagles 26.5, Cowboys 23.8. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 7 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.