NFL Week 7 Predictions vs Results 2026: Every Score & How Our Calls Graded
Updated · market prices
Quick Answer
As of October 26, 2026, Week 7 is final. The model went 10–4 straight up and 0–0 on published positions (Kalshi vs book consensus) — every game below is graded against its final score.
Each game links to its own page with the final score and how our call held up; the full record lives on the track record.
This week: NFL Week 8 predictions.
Week 7 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 14 games, graded below against the final scores. Each row shows the pre-game call.
- Bears over Patriots · pre-game call60%—
- Steelers over Saints · pre-game call60%—
- 49ers over Falcons · pre-game call59%—
- Bengals over Ravens · pre-game call60%—
- Panthers over Buccaneers · pre-game call60%—
- Texans over Giants · pre-game call82%—
- Vikings over Colts · pre-game call72%—
- Jets over Dolphins · pre-game call65%—
- Browns over Titans · pre-game call55%—
- Broncos over Cardinals · pre-game call65%—
- Lions over Packers · pre-game call62%—
- Rams over Raiders · pre-game call62%—
- Seahawks over Chiefs · pre-game call60%—
- Cowboys over Eagles · pre-game call65%65.5¢
Winner = the side with the higher published win probability. Once Kalshi prices a game that probability is market-anchored — it is the market’s number, which is why the Model and Kalshi columns sit within a point of each other and why no upset is labelled. Before a market opens it is the model’s own read. The model’s separate opinion is the lean, in points, graded on its own and never published as an edge. Kalshi = the mid price of the winner’s contract, in cents. A straight-up call is not the play — the play on each game is the edge side on its matchup page.
Week 7 in numbers
- 10–4 straight up for the model, every game graded below.
- 4 upsets by closing line among the 14 games recapped, led by the Giants at +390 (+10): Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT).
- The line moved toward the winner in 8 of 14, toward the loser in 5, flat in 1; season to date, toward the winner in 49 of 105, toward the loser in 41, flat in 15.
Biggest moves of Week 7
- Cowboys at Eagles: moved 7.5 toward the Cowboys (Eagles −3 → +4.5); Cowboys won by 17toward winner
- Bengals at Ravens: moved 6.5 toward the Bengals (Ravens −3.5 → +3); Bengals won by 22toward winner
- Browns at Titans: moved 5 toward the Browns (Titans −2.5 → +2.5); Browns won by 3toward winner
One line source: DraftKings, via ESPN — the opening and closing spread on each game, not a consensus of every platform. Every 2026 upset →
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 14 Week 7 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
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- Patriots at Bears — Final: Patriots 24, Bears 30 · model had Bears (60%, pre-game)
- Steelers at Saints — Final: Steelers 16, Saints 10 · model had Steelers (60%, pre-game)
- 49ers at Falcons — Final: 49ers 20, Falcons 29 · model had 49ers (59%, pre-game)
- Bengals at Ravens — Final: Bengals 35, Ravens 13 · model had Bengals (60%, pre-game)
- Buccaneers at Panthers — Final: Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13 · model had Panthers (60%, pre-game)
- Giants at Texans — Final: Giants 27, Texans 21 (OT) · model had Texans (82%, pre-game)
- Colts at Vikings — Final: Colts 10, Vikings 16 · model had Vikings (72%, pre-game)
- Dolphins at Jets — Final: Dolphins 28, Jets 25 · model had Jets (65%, pre-game)
- Browns at Titans — Final: Browns 27, Titans 24 · model had Browns (55%, pre-game)
- Broncos at Cardinals — Final: Broncos 30, Cardinals 16 · model had Broncos (65%, pre-game)
- Packers at Lions — Final: Packers 17, Lions 20 · model had Lions (62%, pre-game)
- Rams at Raiders — Final: Rams 35, Raiders 21 · model had Rams (62%, pre-game)
- Chiefs at Seahawks — Final: Chiefs 3, Seahawks 20 · model had Seahawks (60%, pre-game)
- Cowboys at Eagles — Final: Cowboys 38, Eagles 21 · model had Cowboys (65%, pre-game)
All 14 Week 7 games with the published win probability (fair value (books) once priced), the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the model’s own line and the edge.
Who's overrated this week? Experts vs. market → — the Kalshi contracts behind every price are on the Kalshi NFL markets board, and the NFL power ratings are the numbers underneath every model line on this page.
Injury report, by unit: which defenses have lost several starters from the same front seven or secondary this week — the defensive injury cluster board.
How to use these pages: what every box on a game page means →
Live: every Week 7 game where our model and Kalshi disagree enough to call. Full edge board →
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 7 primetime, live
Run Week 7 yourself
All tools →Rankings NFL power rankings (Week 8)
Week 7 players to watch
All players →One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Watch the Week 7 breakdown
NFL Week 7 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 7 2026?
Week 7 is in progress: 14 of 14 games are final and graded on this page, and the model makes no call on the 0 remaining games. The full record lives on the track record.
How are these NFL Week 7 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the published win probability — the fair value (books) once a game is priced — minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means that number has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap clears 2 points net of the book's spread; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who will win each NFL Week 7 game?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 14 Week 7 games, with its win probability (0 still to play; a game that has kicked off is listed as its pre-game call). Bears over Patriots (60%, pre-game); Steelers over Saints (60%, pre-game); 49ers over Falcons (59%, pre-game); Bengals over Ravens (60%, pre-game); Panthers over Buccaneers (60%, pre-game); Texans over Giants (82%, pre-game); Vikings over Colts (72%, pre-game); Jets over Dolphins (65%, pre-game); Browns over Titans (55%, pre-game); Broncos over Cardinals (65%, pre-game); Lions over Packers (62%, pre-game); Rams over Raiders (62%, pre-game); Seahawks over Chiefs (60%, pre-game); Cowboys over Eagles (65%, pre-game). The winner is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced); an upset is a winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where that number and the price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread.
What are the NFL Week 7 picks straight up?
Week 7 picks straight up: Bears over Patriots (pre-game call), Steelers over Saints (pre-game call), 49ers over Falcons (pre-game call), Bengals over Ravens (pre-game call), Panthers over Buccaneers (pre-game call), Texans over Giants (pre-game call), Vikings over Colts (pre-game call), Jets over Dolphins (pre-game call), Browns over Titans (pre-game call), Broncos over Cardinals (pre-game call), Lions over Packers (pre-game call), Rams over Raiders (pre-game call), Seahawks over Chiefs (pre-game call), Cowboys over Eagles (pre-game call). Each pick is the side with the higher published win probability (the fair value (books) once a game is priced) — the model's straight-up call, not a position. The play on each game is the side where that number and the Kalshi price disagree by 2 points net of the book's spread, on its matchup page.
How often are the Week 7 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Win probabilities are the market-anchored fair value (books) once a game is priced; the model’s own line is the lean. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.