Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
Updated · market price
Thursday, October 15, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of October 6, 2026, Kalshi implies 45% for the Broncos in Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 6 2026, while PredictionMarketsPicks' model has the Seahawks by 0.5 (51% to win; score prediction Seahawks 22, Broncos 21) — a 3.5pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 6 · 2026-10-06No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
SEA
+3.9
DEN
+1.2
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 6 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Seahawks
51%
model win prob
Broncos
49%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
47%
Madden 27
53%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Seahawks at Broncos
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Seahawks vs Broncos power ratings (Week 6)
Seahawks and Broncos season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Seahawks–Broncos is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Broncos rate +1.2 (9th of 32), the Seahawks +3.9 (1st) — 2.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the closest game of the 14 in Week 6. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.2 (favored in 15) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +1.8 (7th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.5 (8th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.5, 15th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.2, 2nd), a 0.7-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +0.9, 1st in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Seahawks are on a 4-day turnaround and the Broncos are on a 4-day turnaround. The Seahawks come in off the 49ers, the Broncos off the Chargers. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Seahawks at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN contract implies 45% for the Broncos against our 49% — a 3.5-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- 45c · 45%
- Our model (Broncos)
- 49%
- Model vs market
- +3.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 45c on the Broncos is an implied 45% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 49%, a 3.5pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Seahawks vs Broncos trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% 45c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket USUS exchange — separate book | 46% 46c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 45% 45c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 45% 45c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Seahawks vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who will win Broncos vs Seahawks?
Our model has the Seahawks at 51% to beat the Broncos in Week 6, with a score prediction of Seahawks 22, Broncos 21.
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Broncos in Week 6?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 0.5 points, a 51% win probability over the Broncos, for a projected score of Seahawks 22, Broncos 21 on a ratings-implied 43.2-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN market implies 45% for the Broncos — a 3.5pp agreement with the model.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Broncos (+1.2, 9th) and Seahawks (+3.9, 1st) are only 2.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 49%/51%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Broncos?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Broncos YES is quoted around 45c against our 49% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday, October 15, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 6, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 11) and the Seahawks at 10.2 (favored in 15). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Broncos?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN. The Broncos YES contract sits around 45c, which is an implied 45% — against our model's 49%. That is a 3.5pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Seahawks vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 6 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Seahawks?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Seahawks at 51% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Broncos moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 49% against a market price implying 45%, an edge of +3.5 points. Model 49% vs market 45% on DEN. We pass — no position.
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After this one
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