Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos
Updated · model ratings
Thursday, October 15, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 2 in Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 6 2026 — 55% to win, and the 58th meeting between these two. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 40c or below (or Seahawks at 50c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SEA
+5.5
DEN
+1.2
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Seahawks
55%
model win prob
Broncos
45%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
47%
Madden 27
53%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 40c or below, or the Seahawks at 50c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Seahawks at Broncos
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsBroncos −7.5 → Broncos −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Seahawks–Broncos, 58 games in
These two have played 58 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 4-3 to the Seahawks since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +1.2 against +5.5, Seahawks by 2, 55% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 1.3-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 3rd-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks'.
On the calendar, the Seahawks are on a 4-day turnaround and the Broncos are on a 4-day turnaround. The Seahawks come in off the 49ers, the Broncos off the Chargers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Seahawks at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 45% / 55% — the tradable window is narrow: Broncos at 40c or below, Seahawks at 50c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Broncos)
- 45%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Broncos at 40c or below, or the Seahawks at 50c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Seahawks vs Broncos trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Seahawks vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Broncos in Week 6?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 2 points, a 55% win probability over the Broncos, for a projected score of Seahawks 23, Broncos 21 on a ratings-implied 44.6-point total. The Broncos rate 12th of 32 (+1.2) and the Seahawks 2nd (+5.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the all-time record between the Seahawks and Broncos?
Our records hold 58 meetings, 2 of them in the playoffs. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 4-3 for the Seahawks over 7 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 40c or below, or the Seahawks at 50c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday, October 15, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 6, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16). This game ranks 3rd-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Broncos?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Broncos at 40c or below or the Seahawks at 50c or below, off a 2-point line.
Can you trade Seahawks vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 6 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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