Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

These two have played 58 times going back through the record we hold, 2 of them in the playoffs, and the modern-era series is 4-3 to the Seahawks since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +1.2 against +5.2, Seahawks by 1.5, 54% to win.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 1.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 1.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 4th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Seahawks'.

On the calendar, the Seahawks are on a 4-day turnaround and the Broncos are on a 4-day turnaround. The Seahawks come in off the 49ers, the Broncos off the Chargers. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.

Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Seahawks at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 46% / 54% — the tradable window is narrow: Broncos at 41c or below, Seahawks at 49c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.