Updated · model ratings
Thursday, October 15, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
Final (Thursday, October 15, 2026): Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (OT) — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 2.5 (59% to win); the Broncos won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Seahawks at 57c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (OT)Final / OT
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 2.5 (59% to win). The Broncos won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Seahawks: +1c — we archived the Seahawks at 56c on Oct 9; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 57c on Oct 15. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Denver gained 168 yards to Seattle’s 353 and still won on Thursday night. The Broncos led 14-3 at halftime on J.K. Dobbins’ 4-yard run and RJ Harvey’s 1-yard direct-snap touchdown, and Seattle went scoreless from the first quarter until George Holani’s 1-yard run and Darnold’s two-point pass to Rashid Shaheed with 5:41 left. Jason Myers tied it from 34 yards with three seconds to go, but on the Seahawks’ first overtime possession McMillian picked off Darnold, and Lutz won it with 4:53 left in the extra period. Denver hit Darnold 17 times and sacked him five, per the AP. DraftKings opened the Broncos as 2.5-point home underdogs and closed them +3; they won outright, and 31 points finished under both the opening 43.5 and the closing 40.5.
Seahawks 14—Broncos 17
Final / OT✗ Call missedThe chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had Denver at 41.3%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 2.5-point Seattle line. Denver won. The model’s own read was close to a coin flip (Seattle by 0.1), a 2.4-point lean toward Denver, tier WATCH, and the Broncos won by three as the underdog: the lean was right. It was a WATCH lean, so it is graded apart and never folded into the record. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position: its two Seahawks moneyline rows were voided on 2026-10-08 and 2026-10-12 (no longer an edge), and count in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried one PLAY row, and it lost: Darnold over 1.5 touchdown passes, HIGH, YES at 42¢, closed 43.5¢ (CLV +1.5¢). He threw none, and two interceptions. Nine visible WATCH rows went 8-1 and are graded apart. Bo Nix under 9.5, 14.5, 19.5 and 24.5 rushing yards all won on four carries for two yards; Marvin Mims Jr. over 1.5 catches won on two; Shaheed over 1.5 catches won on five; AJ Barner under 24.5 receiving yards won on 16; and Dobbins over 4.5 receiving yards won on five. The one loss was Emanuel Wilson over 1.5 catches: one target, no catches. Four passing-yards rows on Nix and a Jaxon Smith-Njigba touchdown row are suppressed stats the board never displayed, and they count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 3 to 40.5; the game landed on 31.
Q1
Myers opened the scoring with a 55-yard field goal at 6:31 of the first quarter. Denver answered with its longest drive of the night by plays, 16 plays and 74 yards over 8:39, and Dobbins ran in from four yards early in the second quarter for a 7-3 lead.
Q2
Denver went 79 yards in nine plays and Harvey took a direct snap in from the 1 at 5:15 for a 14-3 lead. Seattle’s best first-half reply reached the Denver 30, where Bonitto forced Shaheed’s fumble and Justin Strnad recovered at the 34. Tight end Elijah Arroyo was hurt on the same play.
Q4
Myers hit the right upright from 47 in the third quarter, and Seattle did not score again until an 11-play, 67-yard drive ended with Holani’s 1-yard run and Darnold’s two-point pass to Shaheed: 14-11 with 5:41 left. Kris Abrams-Draine intercepted Darnold with 1:31 to go, but Denver gained two yards and punted, Shaheed returned it 31 yards to the Seattle 46, and Myers made the 34-yarder with three seconds left.
Overtime
Seattle got the ball first in overtime and went six plays before McMillian intercepted Darnold’s throw for Shaheed. Denver ran four plays for eight yards and Lutz made the 53-yard field goal with 4:53 left. “Defensively, we were magnificent,” Sean Payton said.
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Broncos beat the Seahawks 17-14 in OT on Ja’Quan McMillian’s pick, Wil Lutz’s 53-yarder
The gate is quiet here: neither starter is on an injury report, which on a Thursday in Week 6 is rarer than it sounds. What is left is a genuine collision. Seattle has the league’s most concentrated receiver and the defense that allows fewer yards per completion than anyone, and Denver has a secondary missing its best two players and a quarterback whose throws have gotten shorter in every direction a throw can be measured.
Seahawks pass offense · Broncos coverage
Smith-Njigba is not a high target share, he is the highest in football, and the air-yards number is the one that matters: more than half of everything Seattle throws travels to him. Denver would normally answer that with Patrick Surtain II, and Surtain is out with an ankle, as is Talanoa Hufanga; Riley Moss is questionable with a rib injury. The consequence is already measurable in how Denver calls coverage — with Surtain and Moss off the field its man-coverage rate collapsed from a quarter of snaps to roughly one in nine, which means zone, which means Smith-Njigba sees the ball in front of him with room to run. He is averaging 37.8 yards after the catch a game, the best of his young career. The caveat is that Denver’s pass defense has held up anyway on the efficiency numbers, third in completion rate allowed and tenth in yards per attempt, and it gets there with a top-ten pressure rate rather than with coverage. He tweaked the ankle on Sunday, practised without restrictions and is expected to play.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Seahawks–Broncos Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Broncos pass rush · Seahawks protection
This is the split that decides whether Seattle scores enough to make the rest academic. Clean, Darnold has completed 80% at 9.2 yards an attempt, third in football. Pressured, he is at 39.5% and 5.3, twenty-fifth and nineteenth. Denver pressures on 40.5% of dropbacks, seventh, and it is the part of the Denver defense that has actually travelled. The supporting evidence is not kind to Seattle: Darnold has lost a full point of expected value on 25.5% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league, he was sacked eight times across the last two games, and he sits twenty-ninth in QBR. The turnover ledger is the same story told at team level — Seattle is 15-0 under Mike Macdonald when it wins the turnover battle, and it committed seven turnovers in its two losses, both by a combined five points. Seattle has scored 44 points off takeaways, the most in football, and allowed 44 off its own, tied for the most. Nothing about this game is close if Denver gets home and Seattle gives the ball away.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Seahawks–Broncos Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Broncos pass offense · Seahawks pass defense
Nix has not just been inefficient, he has been short in every direction a throw can be measured: air yards per attempt down to 5.6 from a 7.3 career mark, air yards to the sticks at minus 2.3, deep targets on 7.4% of throws against a 12.6% career rate, and only 34.3% of his throws between the numbers against 44.8% for his career. His pressure rate is a career high and his scramble rate a career low, which is the profile of a quarterback getting the ball out early because he has to. Week 5 was 16-of-27 for 123 yards at 4.6 an attempt, and he has averaged 5.5 or less in four of five games. Denver as a team has 20 plays of 15+ yards, tied for last, eleven of 20+, ahead of only Arizona, and a league-low 0.88 first-half points per drive. Now it draws the defense that is first in yards per play and allows 8.6 yards per completion, the lowest figure in the league, with opponents reaching a first down or touchdown on 26.8% of attempts, second-best. The honest tension is that Seattle has bent for chunks anyway — 18 plays of 15+ allowed is second-most and ten of 20+ is third-most — so the shape is a lot of short completions punctuated by something Seattle gives up.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Seahawks–Broncos Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Seahawks run offense · Broncos run defense
On the surface this is the opening: Denver allows 4.5 yards a carry to running backs, twenty-fifth, and has given up the most rushing yards per game of any defense Seattle has drawn. Underneath, the shape is specific. Denver is third in the league at limiting yards before contact and dead last in yards allowed after it, which means the front holds and the tackling does not. That is a defense beaten by a back who breaks tackles, and Seattle does not have one available. Emanuel Wilson has taken roughly three-quarters of the backfield touches in each of the last two games and is twenty-seventh of thirty-one qualifying backs at 3.4 yards a carry, twenty-fourth in success rate, and twenty-eighth in the share of his runs going ten or more yards; 53% of his carries have been hit at or behind the line, the fourth-highest rate in football. He also fumbled in Week 5. Zach Charbonnet is out with a knee, Jadarian Price is on injured reserve and George Holani is probable, so the rotation behind Wilson is thin. The matchup says run it; the personnel says Seattle may not be able to.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Seahawks–Broncos Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: Sharp Football Analysis — Seahawks–Broncos Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Sharp Football Analysis — Week 6 injury report, all 32 teams (Wednesday practice; Darnold and Nix both absent, Lock listed) · seahawks.com — What to watch in the Seahawks’ Thursday night game at Denver · NBC Sports — Seahawks vs Broncos: team and player news, trends and stats (Denver injury table, Nix splits) · Yahoo Sports — Seahawks vs Broncos Week 6: how to watch, injury news, storylines (Darnold back from the glute)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
SEA
+4.1
DEN
+1.8
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Seahawks
59%
fair value (books)
Broncos
41%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
47%
Madden 27
53%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (OT) — the graded call is above.
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Broncos rate +1.8 (9th of 32), the Seahawks +4.1 (1st) — 2.3 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the closest game of the 14 in Week 6. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.9 projected wins for the Broncos against 10.1 for the Seahawks, favored in 13 and 14 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 5th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Seahawks grade +2.3 on that side of the ball (2nd of 32) against a Broncos offense at +0.4 (17th) — 2.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Seahawks offense (+0.6, 14th) meets the Broncos defense (+1.2, 5th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.1, 1st in the league, against +0.3 (21st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Seahawks are on a 4-day turnaround and the Broncos are on a 4-day turnaround. The Seahawks come in off the 49ers, the Broncos off the Chargers. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Scheduling note: this is a Thursday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Seahawks at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 41% for the Broncos. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 43% 43c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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3:52Will the Broncos Win 11 Games? NFL Win Total Predictions on KalshiJul 18, 2026Seattle Seahawks 14, Denver Broncos 17 (OT) — final, played Thursday, October 15, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Broncos won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Seahawks by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Broncos. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Broncos (+1.8, 9th) and Seahawks (+4.1, 1st) are only 2.3 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 41%/59%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 39c or below, or the Seahawks at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Seattle Seahawks visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday, October 15, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 6, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 10.9 wins (favored in 13) and the Seahawks at 10.1 (favored in 14). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Seahawks', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT15SEADEN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Seahawks at 50% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 57%, an edge of +1.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 57% on SEA — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5
Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5
Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5
Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
