New York Jets vs Detroit Lions
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 69% for the Lions in New York Jets vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 3 2026, while our model has the Lions by 9 (70% to win) — a 1.3pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 3 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
NYJ
-4.0
DET
+2.5
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 3 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Jets
30%
model win prob
Lions
70%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
23%
Madden 27
77%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Jets at Lions
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Lions −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Lions by 9
The model does not think this one is close. The Lions rate 7th of 32 at +2.5, the Jets 31st at -4.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Lions by 9 — 70% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 3 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Jets need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Lions grade +0.7 on that side of the ball (6th of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 3.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th), a 3.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.6 (11th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4) — 3.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Lions' entire schedule.
On the calendar, the Jets are on 7 days and the Lions are on 10 days. The Jets come in off the Packers, the Lions off the Bills. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
One team has owned this series: the Jets are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Lions won 20-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 70% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET contract implies 69% for the Lions against our 70% — a 1.3-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- 69c · 69%
- Our model (Lions)
- 70%
- Model vs market
- +1.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 69c on the Lions is an implied 69% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 70%, a 1.3pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Jets vs Lions trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 69% 69c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 69% 69c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 69% 69c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jets vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Lions in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Lions by 9 points, a 70% win probability over the Jets, for a projected score of Lions 26, Jets 17 on a ratings-implied 43.5-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET market implies 69% for the Lions — a 1.3pp agreement with the model.
What would it take for the Jets to win?
The 9-point line comes from a 6.5-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Jets still project at 30% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Jets vs Lions?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Lions YES is quoted around 69c against our 70% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Lions?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET. The Lions YES contract sits around 69c, which is an implied 69% — against our model's 70%. That is a 1.3pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Jets vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 70% on a team like the Lions?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Lions at 70% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 9-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Lions moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 70% against a market price implying 69%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 70% vs market 69% on DET. We pass — no position.
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