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Home/NFL/Week 3/Jets vs Lions
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31

Final. Lions' next game: Lions vs Vikings, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 6.5 (72% to win); the Lions won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Lions at 73c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 6.5 (72% to win). The Lions won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Lions: -1c — we archived the Lions at 74c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 73c on Sep 27. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game: Sam LaPorta under 5 receptions (NO), rest 52¢, walk away above 55¢.

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Jets to winModel 28% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 27% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record.27c28%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Detroit 31, New York 24: Gibbs’ third touchdown with 2:25 left, after the Jets had wiped out a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit

Jahmyr Gibbs ran for two touchdowns and caught the go-ahead one, an 11-yard pass from Jared Goff that ended a four-play, 65-yard drive 1:41 after Geno Smith had tied it at 24. Smith went 31 of 37 for 321 and three touchdowns against the defense his own head coach used to run, and the Jets’ last chance ended at the Detroit 28 when Chuck Clark sacked him and the ball came out. Detroit has scored 31 in each of its three games; New York has lost a fourth-quarter lead one week and a fourth-quarter tie the next.

Jets 24—Lions 31

Final✓ Call hit

The chip grades the stored probability, which had Detroit at 71.7% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 6.5-point line — and Detroit won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was Detroit by 6.0, half a point shy of the anchor, tier NONE: agreement, not a call, and the Lions won by seven. No position was published — no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_03_NYJ_DET, and the board published the read in points. The market’s own movement is the thing worth recording: DraftKings opened the Lions minus 9.5 and closed minus 7, two and a half points toward the Jets, with the total rising five points from 44.5 to 49.5; the code’s verdict on the spread move is toward-loser, and a seven-point Detroit win landed on the closing number exactly. The one call the house did publish here cleared. Saturday’s article took Sam LaPorta under five receptions, the NO at 53c, PLAY, MODERATE, rest at 52 and walk away above 55; he caught three on four targets. The same strike sat on the final board a tier higher — DET LaPorta receptions 4.5 UNDER, HIGH, the YES at 49.5c so the NO cost 50.5c, the YES closing 49.5c, CLV flat — and it is the only visible player call in either room. Sixteen WATCH rows went 10-6 and are graded apart; three of them were LaPorta receiving-yards unders at 39.5, 49.5 and 59.5, and his 44 yards split them.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Lions −9.5 → Lions −7
Total
44.5 → 49.5
To win
NYJ +340 / DET −440 → NYJ +280 / DET −355

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 5 to 49.5; the game landed on 55.

How it happened

Q2

Five punts to open the game, then four straight Smith completions and Sadiq’s full-extension catch

Nothing happened in the first quarter — five punts, the longest of the five drives 36 yards — and Jake Bates opened the scoring from 30. Smith then completed passes on four straight snaps for 72 yards and rookie Kenyon Sadiq fully extended for a 24-yard touchdown in tight coverage, 7-3 New York. Detroit converted fourth-and-2 from the Jets 9 with a throw to Isaac TeSlaa and Goff found Amon-Ra St. Brown’s back shoulder from four, 10-7 at the half; it was Goff’s 26th straight game with a touchdown pass.

Halftime
Lions 10, Jets 7
Sadiq
7 rec · 105 yds · 1 TD
Detroit fourth down
1 of 2

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Gibbs took a toss sweep right, reversed field for 17, and Goff blocked for him

Detroit opened the half with an 80-yard drive in seven plays that Gibbs finished by reversing a toss sweep all the way to the left side of the end zone, with his quarterback running interference. Jason Sanders’ 42-yarder cut it to 17-10, and an 11-play, 62-yard Lions drive ended with Gibbs scoring from the 1 three seconds into the fourth quarter. Barry Sanders was in the building, and Gibbs said so afterwards.

Gibbs rushing
20 carries · 99 yds · 2 TD
Detroit rushing
30 carries · 131 yds
After Gibbs’ second touchdown
Lions 24, Jets 10 (14:57, Q4)

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

Ruckert from 4, Wilson from 23, Shepard on the two-pointer: 24-24 with 4:06 left

New York went 80 yards in nine plays to Jeremy Ruckert’s four-yard touchdown and missed the two-point try. Detroit’s next drive died on downs at the Jets 45, and Smith went 54 yards in eight plays, hit Garrett Wilson from 23 and Sterling Shepard for two. Fourteen points in 7:11, and a game the Jets had trailed by two touchdowns was level.

Smith
31/37 · 321 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Wilson
10 rec · 107 yds · 1 TD on 13 targets
Jets sacks allowed
5 for 44 yards

ESPN — box score

Q4

Four plays, 65 yards, Gibbs from 11 — then Clark got to Smith at the 28

Detroit needed 1:41 and four plays to go back ahead, Goff finding Gibbs for 11 with 2:25 left after what the AP called two blown coverages by the Jets. New York drove to the Detroit 28 with a chance to tie or win; Clark came on a blitz, sacked Smith and the ball came loose, Jack Campbell recovering. Wilson was on the sideline for that last snap being evaluated for a head injury. Aaron Glenn: “We’re fighting to close that gap and we will.”

Winning drive
4 plays, 65 yards, 1:41
Goff
25/32 · 269 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
Gibbs receiving
7 rec · 65 yds · 1 TD

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • No game-level row exists in nfl_weekly_edges for 2026_03_NYJ_DET, so the ledger has nothing to grade on the game itself; the chip above is derived on this page from the stored probability and the final score. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • There is no weekly-edges ledger row for 2026_03_NYJ_DET, so there is no entry, no close and no CLV to report. The 71.7% the chip graded is the anchored (market) probability, not the model’s; the model’s own 6.0-point read is stated above and was not a lean.
  • The “two blown coverages” on Detroit’s winning drive are the AP’s characterisation. ESPN’s drive chart gives four plays and 65 yards and says nothing about coverage.
  • Why the DraftKings total rose five points from open to close is not known from the sources this recap read.
  • Breece Hall (thigh) and Dylan Parham (knee) were hurt during the game and Wilson was evaluated for a head injury on the final possession; no severity is known for any of them.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block (Ford Field is indoors). Attendance (63,193) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grade is a resolution against the box score, not a settlement read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Jahmyr Gibbs’ 3rd touchdown with 2:25 left lifts Lions to 31-24 win over Jets · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Detroit’s secondary is down to its reserves, and the Jets have a rookie edge rusher pointed at a hobbled right tackle

Both teams are 1-1 and both lost in ways that pointed at the same weakness: Detroit has been giving up better than 310 passing yards a game while its safety room sits on injured reserve and the physically-unable-to-perform list. New York has moved the ball and not finished drives. Neither quarterback is on the injury report, so the game turns on whether the Jets can convert field position into points against a pass defense ranked 31st.

Jets pass rush · Lions right tackle

David Bailey against Blake Miller’s knee

Edge: Jets

Bailey, the second overall pick of the 2026 draft, has eight pressures and two sacks in the first two games of his career and projects to spend most of Sunday across from Detroit right tackle Blake Miller — who was himself a limited participant on Wednesday with a knee. Detroit’s line has other Wednesday entries too: Tate Ratledge (elbow) and Christian Mahogany (hip) were limited, and Ben Bartch (foot) did not practise. A rookie edge rusher against a managed tackle is the single most exploitable individual matchup on the field.

David Bailey, two career games
8 pressures, 2 sacks
Blake Miller (knee)
Limited Wednesday and Thursday
Lions O-line on the report
Bartch DNP Thursday; Ratledge, Mahogany, Miller limited Thursday

Source: Yahoo Sports — Lions-Jets preview: who takes advantage of a key weakness?

Jets pass offense · Lions secondary

Detroit’s 31st-ranked pass defense, with its safety room gone

Edge: Jets

The Lions are allowing more than 310 passing yards per game, 31st in the league, and the reason is largely attrition: Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee) opened the year on the physically-unable-to-perform list and Avonte Maddox (foot) is out for the season. What Detroit still has is cornerback Azareye’h Thomas, who has broken up a pass in eight consecutive games. New York’s problem has not been moving the ball — it is that the drives have been ending in something other than touchdowns.

Lions pass defense
310+ yds/game allowed — 31st
Lions safeties unavailable
Branch (PUP), Joseph (PUP), Maddox (season)
Jets scoring
20 PPG despite moving the ball

Source: Yahoo Sports — Lions-Jets preview

Jets run offense · Lions front

Breece Hall behind the best-graded run blocker in the league so far

Close to even

Jets left guard Dylan Parham carries a 92.5 PFF run-blocking grade, the highest of any offensive lineman in the league through two weeks, and he is the reason New York’s ground game has been the functional part of the offense. Detroit’s front is intact where the secondary is not, but the Lions are also without Isiah Pacheco on their own side of the ball. Whether the Jets can turn a run-game advantage into red-zone points against a team that scored 31 in a shootout loss last week is the whole question.

Dylan Parham
92.5 PFF run-block grade — best O-lineman in the league
Lions RB Isiah Pacheco
Out to December (MCL/back)
Records
Both 1-1; Detroit lost 41-31 at Buffalo

Source: Yahoo Sports — Lions-Jets preview

What this read does not know

  • Detroit’s line is managed into the weekend. Ben Bartch (foot) did not practise Thursday and Tate Ratledge, Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller were limited; the official report’s latest practice column lists the last three as full, so the direction is good. Game designations are the Friday/Saturday ruling.
  • New York ruled out Mason Taylor (thumb), Minkah Fitzpatrick and Kiko Mauigoa on Friday. Losing Fitzpatrick at safety cuts against the one thing New York’s defense has been doing well. Adonai Mitchell (finger) was limited Friday.
  • Alim McNeill’s Wednesday absence was listed as personal , not injury, and nothing establishes whether he plays.
  • The PFF and pass-defense-ranking numbers come from a single preview piece and were not cross-checked against a second source.
  • We publish no position on this game — the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: Yahoo Sports — Lions vs Jets Week 3 injury report · Yahoo Sports — Lions-Jets preview: who takes advantage of a key weakness? · newyorkjets.com — Geno Smith seeks to continue offense’s growth vs Lions · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY NYJ -2.7
vs DET -6.5
HOME DET +0.6
Fair (books) · DET 72% home win prob
Kalshi · DET — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Detroit, MI PASS — no position

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Jets

28%

fair value (books)

Lions

72%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

23%

Madden 27

77%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Jets at Lions How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Jets at LionsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Jets at Lions Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Jets–Lions spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Jets vs Lions power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    New York Jets-2.727thBelow Avg
    Detroit Lions+0.613thAverage

    Jets and Lions season outlook

    NYJDET
    Average wins6.39.6
    Make playoffs10%55%
    Win division3%17%
    Win Super Bowl0.5%2.9%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Jets vs Lions — player pages

    All players →

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR

    Breece Hall

    RB

    Garrett Wilson

    WR

    Jameson Williams

    WR

    Sam LaPorta

    TE

    Jared Goff

    QB

    Kenyon Sadiq

    TE

    Omar Cooper Jr.

    WR

    Geno Smith

    QB

    Isaac TeSlaa

    WR

    Braelon Allen

    RB

    Adonai Mitchell

    Sione Vaki

    RB

    Brock Wright

    DET Lions D/ST

    Jacob Saylors

    Isaiah Davis

    Mason Taylor

    NY Jets D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: A 3-day rest edge, sized: Jets at Lions

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31 — the graded call is above.

    The Lions come in with 3 more days off — 10 days' rest for the Lions against 7 days' rest for the Jets. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 3.3-point ratings gap, which has the Lions by 6, 66% to win.

    The Jets come in off the Packers, the Lions off the Bills. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +2.1 (9th of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.0 (25th) — 4.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-1.4, 28th) meets the Lions defense (-2.0, 24th), a 0.6-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.6 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Jets at 6.3 (favored in 3) — 3.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Jets'.

    One team has owned this series: the Jets are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Lions won 20-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 66% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Jets vs Lions on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET
    Market-implied (Lions)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Lions)
    72%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 72% for the Lions. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Jets vs Lions trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueLionsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig73% 73cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Jets vs Lions

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    Jets vs Lions — frequently asked

    Who won Jets vs Lions in Week 3?

    New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Lions by 6.5 (72% to win), and the Lions won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Jets vs Lions before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Lions by 6.5 points, a 72% win probability over the Jets. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Does the rest advantage change the model line?

    Barely. The Lions have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 6-point line and 72% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.

    How do you take a position on Jets vs Lions?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 70c or below, or the Jets at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Lions host the Jets?

    New York Jets visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.

    What does the model project for the Lions and Jets this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Jets at 6.3 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Jets', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Lions?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Jets vs Lions on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Lions?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Lions at 66% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Jets to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 28% against a market price implying 27%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 28% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 27% on NYJ — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Jets: Week 4 at BearsModel line →Lions: Week 4 at PanthersModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenBengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

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