New York Jets vs Detroit Lions
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 9 in New York Jets vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 3 2026 — 70% to win, and the 16th-widest model gap in Week 3. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 65c or below (or Jets at 25c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYJ
-4.0
DET
+2.5
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Jets
30%
model win prob
Lions
70%
model win prob
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23%
Madden 27
77%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 65c or below, or the Jets at 25c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Why the model has the Lions by 9
The model does not think this one is close. The Lions rate 7th of 32 at +2.5, the Jets 31st at -4.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Lions by 9 — 70% to win. That is the 16th-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 3 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Jets need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Lions grade +0.7 on that side of the ball (6th of 32) against a Jets offense at -3.1 (30th) — 3.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Jets defense (-2.1, 26th), a 3.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.6 (11th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4) — 3.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Jets'. It is the softest spot on the Lions' entire schedule.
On the calendar, the Jets are on 7 days and the Lions are on 10 days. The Jets come in off the Packers, the Lions off the Bills. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
One team has owned this series: the Jets are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Lions won 20-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 70% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Lions 70%, Jets 30%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Lions contracts a buy at 65c or below and Jets contracts a buy at 25c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Jets vs Lions on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET
- Market-implied (Lions)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Lions)
- 70%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Lions at 65c or below, or the Jets at 25c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Jets vs Lions trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Jets vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Jets vs Lions in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Lions by 9 points, a 70% win probability over the Jets. The Lions rate 7th of 32 (+2.5) and the Jets 31st (-4.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Jets to win?
The 9-point line comes from a 6.5-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Jets still project at 30% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Jets vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 65c or below, or the Jets at 25c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Jets?
New York Jets visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Jets this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Jets at 6.7 (favored in 4). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Jets', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Jets vs Lions?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Lions at 65c or below or the Jets at 25c or below, off a 9-point line.
Can you trade Jets vs Lions on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27NYJDET. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 70% on a team like the Lions?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Lions at 70% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 9-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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