Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Browns by 1 in Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 13 2026 — 53% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.4 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06CINCLE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Browns at 48c or below (or Bengals at 42c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CIN
-0.6
CLE
-2.0
Bengals
47%
model win prob
Browns
53%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06CINCLEhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Browns at 48c or below, or the Bengals at 42c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Bengals–Browns is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Bengals rate -0.6 (21st of 32) against -2.0 for the Browns (25th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.4-point gap between them, so the model lands at 53% for the Browns anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 5th-closest of the 14 games in Week 13, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.9 projected wins for the Browns against 8.6 for the Bengals, favored in 6 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Bengals'.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Bengals grade -2.1 on that side of the ball (25th of 32) against a Browns offense at -3.7 (31st) — 1.6 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Bengals offense (+0.7, 15th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 1.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Bengals grade +0.8, 5th in the league, against -0.2 (31st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the calendar, the Bengals are on 7 days and the Browns are on 7 days. The Browns are 3 games into a home stand. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
On the standings side, AFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC North race.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Browns at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06CINCLE is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 53% / 47% — the tradable window is narrow: Browns at 48c or below, Bengals at 42c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bengals vs Browns — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bengals vs Browns in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Browns by 1 points, a 53% win probability over the Bengals. The Browns rate 25th of 32 (-2.0) and the Bengals 21st (-0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06CINCLE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Browns (-2.0, 25th) and Bengals (-0.6, 21st) are only 1.4 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 53%/47%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Bengals vs Browns?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06CINCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 48c or below, or the Bengals at 42c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Browns host the Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
What does the model project for the Browns and Bengals this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 7.9 wins (favored in 6) and the Bengals at 8.6 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Bengals', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 53% on a team like the Browns?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Browns at 53% over the Bengals sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Bengals–Browns, Week 18 →
More Week 13 matchups
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