Arizona Cardinals 30, San Francisco 49ers 36

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread

49ers −11.5 → 49ers −7.5

Total

46.5 → 48.5

To win

ARI +470 / SF −650 → ARI +310 / SF −395

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 2 to 48.5; the game landed on 66.

How it happened

What this recap does not know

• —The ledger has graded this game’s position: 2026_03_ARI_SF_moneyline graded LOSS (minus 20c) at 2026-09-28 00:55 UTC (20:55 ET Sunday), via the canonical settle pass (gridiron_edge/scripts/capture_edge_clv.py --season 2026 --week 3 --mode settle --tables game), run by Cowork once Kalshi had finalized the contracts — the same code the Tue/Wed launchd schedule runs. That grade matches the outcome stated above; the P/L figure is the ledger’s number, not this page’s. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
• —The HIGH Arizona row (2026-09-16, 19.5c) and Saturday’s Lean (23c, resting at 21) are the same side at different prices, eleven days apart. Both lost. Which price a Sunday-morning reader saw was not checked against a page snapshot.
• —The hook-and-ladder is split differently by the two sources: ESPN’s scoring log records a two-yard pass and an 80-yard lateral; the AP a six-yard pass flipped back four. It is 82 yards either way and the play is described without the split above.
• —The muffed punt: ESPN’s fumbles table charges Siran Neal with a lost fumble and credits Simi Fehoko with the recovery; the AP calls it a muffed punt; the spot (San Francisco 28) is the drive chart’s.
• —Evans (ribs), Williams (stinger — carted off, returned to the sideline, did not re-enter) and Dre Greenlaw (quadriceps) had no confirmed severity when this was published. San Francisco was already without Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling and Demarcus Robinson.
• —ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (70,687) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
• —This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entry and close quoted are the ledger’s captures, the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grades are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

What this read does not know

• —Brissett has practised in full all week and carries no designation, so the quarterback question that could have swamped this game did not materialise.
• —San Francisco lost a pass rusher on Thursday. Nick Bosa hurt his calf in practice, is listed doubtful and is expected to miss a few weeks; Romello Height (hand) did not practise either. Mike Evans (hip) is questionable after returning to practice Friday.
• —San Francisco’s receiver situation could not be itemised. One preview referred to injury concerns in the 49ers’ receiver corps without naming players, and no club source confirming it was found. We are not repeating it as fact.
• —One source summary mixed Week 3 and Week 4 language in describing Arizona’s secondary. The individual player statuses above are from the club’s reports through Thursday; treat the framing around them with a little care.
• —We publish no position on this game — the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.