Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Monday, December 14, 2026 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 5.5 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 14 2026 — 66% to win, and Jaguars 6th of 32, Steelers 19th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC14PITJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 61c or below (or Steelers at 29c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PIT
-0.5
JAX
+2.7
Steelers
34%
model win prob
Jaguars
66%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC14PITJAChasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 61c or below, or the Steelers at 29c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Jaguars at +2.7 (6th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Steelers at -0.5 (19th, Average tier), which after home field comes out Jaguars by 5.5 and 66% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.5 (13th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.5 (13th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.8 (9th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.5 (13th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 0.5-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.5 (13th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 9.5 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Steelers at 8.2 (favored in 10) — 1.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Steelers'.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Steelers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Jaguars won 20-10 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC14PITJAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jaguars 66%, Steelers 34%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jaguars contracts a buy at 61c or below and Steelers contracts a buy at 29c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Steelers vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who is favored in Steelers vs Jaguars in Week 14?
Our power-rating model favors the Jaguars by 5.5 points, a 66% win probability over the Steelers. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 (+2.7) and the Steelers 19th (-0.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC14PITJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Steelers vs Jaguars?
Jaguars offense (+1.8, 9th of 32) against Steelers defense (-0.5, 13th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Jaguars (+0.9, 3rd).
How do you take a position on Steelers vs Jaguars?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC14PITJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 61c or below, or the Steelers at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jaguars host the Steelers?
Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday, December 14, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 14, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Steelers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.5 wins (favored in 11) and the Steelers at 8.2 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Steelers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 66% on a team like the Jaguars?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Jaguars at 66% over the Steelers sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.