New York Giants vs Detroit Lions
Monday, December 28, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 6 in New York Giants vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 16 2026 — 67% to win, and Lions 8th of 32, Giants 22nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC28NYGDET yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Lions at 62c or below (or Giants at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NYG
-1.0
DET
+2.4
Giants
33%
model win prob
Lions
67%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC28NYGDEThasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Lions at 62c or below, or the Giants at 28c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
New York Giants at Detroit Lions kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Lions at +2.4 (8th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Giants at -1.0 (22nd, Average tier), which after home field comes out Lions by 6 and 67% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.2 (10th of 32) against a Giants defense at -2.1 (26th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Lions defense (+0.6, 7th), a 0.4-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to +0.1 (29th).
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.2 (10th of 32) against a Giants defense at -2.1 (26th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+1.0, 12th) meets the Lions defense (+0.6, 7th), a 0.4-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to +0.1 (29th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Giants at 7.7 (favored in 6) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Giants'.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Lions' favour. They last met in 2025: Lions won 34-27 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 4-0. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC28NYGDET, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Lions 67%, Giants 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Lions contracts a buy at 62c or below and Giants contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Giants vs Lions — frequently asked
Who is favored in Giants vs Lions in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Lions by 6 points, a 67% win probability over the Giants. The Lions rate 8th of 32 (+2.4) and the Giants 22nd (-1.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC28NYGDET yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Giants vs Lions?
Lions offense (+1.2, 10th of 32) against Giants defense (-2.1, 26th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Lions (+0.6, 11th).
How do you take a position on Giants vs Lions?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC28NYGDET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Lions at 62c or below, or the Giants at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Lions host the Giants?
New York Giants visit the Detroit Lions on Monday, December 28, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 16, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
What does the model project for the Lions and Giants this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Giants at 7.7 (favored in 6). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Giants', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Lions?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Lions at 67% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.