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Home/NFL/Week 2/Giants vs Rams
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28

Final. Rams' next game: Rams vs Chargers, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Monday, September 21, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Quick Answer

Final (Monday, September 21, 2026): New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 7 (73% to win); the Rams won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Rams at 74c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 7 (73% to win). The Rams won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Rams: -1c — we archived the Rams at 75c on Sep 15; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 74c on Sep 21. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Los Angeles 28, New York 6: Jaxson Dart left on the Giants’ seventh play, and Stafford threw four touchdowns with Davante Adams going for 195

The Giants lost Dart to a left knee injury on their first possession and managed 182 yards behind Jameis Winston, who went 11 of 27 for 111 with an interception. Los Angeles, playing without Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett, gained 481: Stafford went 22 of 31 for 327 and four scores, Adams caught eight for 195 and two touchdowns — his best night as a Ram — and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ran for 85 and 79. Aaron Donald played his first NFL game in 32 months and made three tackles. The Rams, seven-point favorites at the close after opening at eight and a half, covered by fifteen, and 34 combined points landed thirteen and a half under a 47.5 total that never moved.

Giants 6—Rams 28

Final✓ Call hit

The chip grades the stored pre-game probability, which had Los Angeles at 73.2% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 7-point margin that matches the DraftKings close — and Los Angeles won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was on the same side and it is stated separately: Los Angeles by 7.4, a 0.4-point lean, tier NONE, the model and the market agreeing to within half a point on a game that finished 22 apart. No position was published and no nfl_weekly_edges row exists for 2026_02_NYG_LAR — no entry, no close, no CLV. The matchup page called this the widest raw gap on the Week 2 board, 7.44 points, and it was; a rank is not a position and this page does not pretend it was one. Nothing else went out as a call on the game: no Play of the Day, no article card, and the Thursday play pass came back empty because its one liquid candidate, Cam Skattebo over 80 rushing yards, had been delisted by the time it was re-priced. Skattebo ran twelve times for 36. The prop board was the surface that published, and the deep dive on this page had already written the sentence that decided it: every projection assumed Nacua would play, and if he did not, Adams becomes an over. Nacua was inactive. Adams saw ten targets, and the four Adams receptions UNDERs on the board — 3.5, 4.5, 5.5 and 6.5, all WATCH rows, YES at 61.5c, 36.5c, 29.5c and 18c when captured — lost on his eight catches against a 3.6-catch projection. The tape shows the move: the 4+ receptions contract went from 61.5c at the Sunday-morning capture to 74.5c at the 7:45 PM ET close pass, the inactive priced in, and every Adams under sat on the wrong side of it. That is a stated blind spot resolving against us, and it is owned here rather than filed under WATCH and forgotten. Visible PLAY rows went two and six. Colby Parkinson under 3.5 receptions (YES 39.5c) and Kyren Williams under 2.5 receptions (YES 42.5c) both cleared on two catches apiece. Williams under 59.5 and under 69.5 rushing yards (YES 52.5c and 40.5c) both lost on his 85 against a 55.6-yard projection, on a night the Rams ran 28 times for 163 with a lead from the first quarter on. Isaiah Likely under 3.5 and under 4.5 receptions (YES 64.5c and 45.5c) lost on five catches on ten targets, against a 3.3 projection, with Winston throwing to a tight end because little else was open. And Jaxson Dart over 0.5 and over 1.5 passing touchdowns at 66c and 33.5c lost on zero: Dart threw five passes before the knee, and a strike that resolves on an injury on the seventh play is a loss on the record all the same. Two suppressed Dart passing-yards unders, 199.5 and 224.5, cleared on his 20 yards and count for nothing — a call nobody could see, on a stat nobody could have projected. WATCH rows are graded apart: Parkinson under 2.5 and Williams under 3.5 receptions cleared, Williams under 49.5 rushing lost, the four Adams rows above lost, and on the Giants side Darnell Mooney over 1.5 receptions, Likely under 39.5 receiving yards and Likely under 5.5 receptions all cleared — five and five where a grade exists. Two Tyler Higbee WATCH rows are ungraded: Higbee does not appear in ESPN’s box score, and this recap does not know whether that is a zero-target night or an inactive.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Rams −8.5 → Rams −7
Total
47.5 → 47.5
Moneyline
NYG +295 / LAR −375 → NYG +250 / LAR −310

The spread moved toward the side that lost.

How it happened

Q1

Dart took the hit on New York’s seventh play, and Adams scored from 31 on the Rams’ second real drive

The Giants’ opening series went seven plays and ended in a punt; on the seventh, Byron Young and Josaiah Stewart hit Dart, and he left with a left knee injury that ESPN’s injury listing later carried as an MCL sprain. Winston took over for the second series. After a three-and-out, Los Angeles went 80 yards in eight plays, Adams making a two-handed catch above his head and taking it 31 yards for the score with eleven seconds left in the quarter.

After one
Rams 7, Giants 0
Dart
3/5 · 20 yds before leaving
Attendance
73,773 at SoFi Stadium

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

A 64-yard catch set up Williams’ touchdown, then three turnovers in three and a quarter minutes produced a field goal

Adams went 64 yards on the Rams’ next drive and Stafford found Kyren Williams from ten for 14-0. The Giants answered with a nine-play drive that ended in Trent McDuffie’s end-zone interception of Winston; Jevon Holland intercepted Stafford two plays later; after a Giants punt, Williams fumbled on the first play of the Rams’ next series and Holland forced and recovered it at the Los Angeles 11. Donald stopped Najee Harris on third down, and New York settled for Dominic Zvada from 24. Harrison Mevis missed a field goal as the half ended.

Halftime
Rams 14, Giants 3
Holland
1 INT · 1 forced fumble · 1 recovery
Giants red zone
0 for 2 on the night

ESPN — box score

Q3

Adams tracked down an 11-yard fade for Stafford’s 426th touchdown pass

Los Angeles went 86 yards in seven plays, Adams adjusting to an eleven-yard fade in the corner for 21-3 with 6:21 left in the quarter — Stafford’s 426th career touchdown pass, moving him past Philip Rivers into sixth all-time per the AP. Zvada answered from 52 for the Giants’ last points. New York converted three of fourteen third downs on the night; the Rams converted five of nine and went three for three in the red zone.

After three
Rams 21, Giants 6
Stafford
22/31 · 327 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT
Adams
8 rec · 195 yds · 2 TD on 10 targets

ESPN — box score

Q4

Ferguson from five with 8:57 left, the Giants turned it over on downs, and the Rams ran out the last 6:12

A nine-play, 64-yard drive ended with Stafford’s fourth touchdown pass, to tight end Terrance Ferguson from five. New York’s reply went seven plays and died on downs with 6:12 to play, and the Rams ran nine plays to the end of the game without giving the ball back. Brian Burns went down with a lower left leg injury in the quarter and declined a cart afterward.

Final
Rams 28, Giants 6
Total offense
LAR 481 · NYG 182
Donald
3 tackles in his first game since January 2024

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game — result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on every Week 2 prop row when this was written, and no game-level nfl_weekly_edges row exists for 2026_02_NYG_LAR. Every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The two Tyler Higbee WATCH rows (over 14.5 receiving yards, over 1.5 receptions) are ungraded here because Higbee does not appear in ESPN’s box score. An active player with no targets grades both as losses; an inactive grades them void. This recap has not checked the inactives list and does not guess.
  • Dart’s injury is "left knee" in the AP’s account and "Knee - MCL Sprain" in ESPN’s post-game injury listing. Neither states a timeline, and this recap does not either. The Dart passing-touchdown rows are graded losses on zero because that is what the box score says; the strike existed and it resolved.
  • The turnover spots — McDuffie’s interception in the end zone, Holland’s recovery at the Los Angeles 11 — are the AP’s. ESPN’s scoring log carries no non-scoring plays. Adams’ eight catches and 195 yards being his best as a Ram, and Stafford passing Rivers for sixth all-time, are the AP’s claims and were not independently checked.
  • Nacua’s absence is taken from the box score, in which he does not appear, and the AP’s "played without injured All-Pros Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett". The deep dive on this page listed him as a game-time decision as late as Monday morning, and every prop projection on the page was priced with him active; no projection was re-run after the inactives.
  • The stored fair-value row carries updated_at 2026-09-21 12:02 UTC, eight hours before kickoff, and its fair_margin of 7 equals the DraftKings close. That is consistent with a pre-kickoff anchor; the Tuesday 08:00 ET refresh should not move it, and the render pin for this page will say so if it does.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block for a game played indoors. Attendance is ESPN’s figure. This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game; nothing above is a live price, and the Adams close of 74.5c is the 7:45 PM ET capture, not a settlement.

Reporting verified 2026-09-21. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Davante Adams, Matthew Stafford lead Rams past Giants 28-6 after Jaxson Dart’s injury · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

Myles Garrett is a Ram — and he's on IR, so Aaron Donald's comeback may headline this one instead.

The Rams traded Jared Verse and three picks for Myles Garrett in June, then lost him to arthroscopic knee surgery and injured reserve after a 27-7 opening beatdown by San Francisco in Melbourne. Los Angeles is 0-1 with no sacks and 174 rushing yards allowed in that game; John Harbaugh's Giants are 1-0 off a ball-control win over Dallas in which Jaxson Dart went 23-of-29 for three scores. The trench story on Monday is a Rams front missing its centerpiece against a Giants line that added a top-10 pick, with Aaron Donald carrying no injury designation and saying of his first game since January 2024, "That's the plan." The receiver rooms are the late story on both sides: Puka Nacua is questionable and a game-time decision, Jordan Whittington doubtful, and the Giants lost Paulson Adebo to injured reserve with Deonte Banks questionable. One thing changes every number on this page: whether Puka Nacua plays. He is a game-time decision, and the prop projections here assume he does — with Nacua out, his targets flow to Davante Adams and the other options, and their overs move accordingly. Do not follow the projections without the inactives (Benny, Sept. 21).

Rams pass rush · Giants protection

The Rams' edge room without Myles Garrett — and the Aaron Donald question

Edge: Giants

Garrett is confirmed as a Ram — Los Angeles sent Jared Verse, a 2027 first, a 2028 second and a 2029 third to Cleveland in June — but he is on injured reserve after arthroscopic knee surgery and must miss at least four games, so he will not play Monday. That leaves Byron Young and second-year man Josaiah Stewart as the edge pair, with Desjuan Johnson and rookie Wesley Bailey behind them and Kobie Turner/Braden Fiske available to kick outside on run downs. Aaron Donald, who unretired in late August and did not travel to Australia, is the wild card: Sean McVay said on Sept. 14 the team had not decided whether he would play, and reporting since has described his chance as "realistic." Los Angeles registered zero sacks, one tackle for loss and two quarterback hits in Week 1.

Garrett trade cost
Jared Verse + 2027 1st + 2028 2nd + 2029 3rd
Rams Week 1 pass rush
0 sacks, 1 TFL, 2 QB hits
Donald status
Unretired Aug. 30; no injury designation — Donald on playing: "That's the plan"

Source: CBS Sports — Garrett to IR, trade terms

Giants protection · Rams interior rush

Andrew Thomas, a rookie right guard, and a reshaped Rams interior

Edge: Giants

The Giants' projected five is Andrew Thomas (LT), Jon Runyan Jr. (LG), John Michael Schmitz Jr. (C), rookie Francis Mauigoa (RG) and Jermaine Eluemunor (RT), with Marcus Mbow, Daniel Faalele, Aaron Stinnie and J.C. Davis in reserve. Mauigoa was the No. 10 overall pick acquired in the Dexter Lawrence trade, and New York allowed only two sacks for a net one yard in the opener while holding the ball 36:40. Thomas (ankle) and Mauigoa (shoulder) were both limited on the first Week 2 injury report, which matters more than usual given how dependent this line has been on Thomas's availability. The Rams counter with Kobie Turner and Poona Ford inside, plus Donald if he plays.

Giants Week 1 sacks allowed
2 for 1 yard (Dart 23-of-29)
Giants time of possession
36:40, 9-of-11 on third down
Practice status
A. Thomas (ankle) and Mauigoa (shoulder) limited Wed.

Source: ESPN box score, Giants 28-20 Cowboys

Giants pass rush · Rams protection

Carter, Burns and Thibodeaux against a Rams line that has one new starter

Close to even

New York's edge trio is Abdul Carter, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, fronted by DJ Reader, Shelby Harris and Chauncey Golston inside — but the Giants also generated zero sacks and only three quarterback hits against Dallas, so both defenses arrive without a sack to their name. The Rams return ten of eleven Week 1 starters from 2025 on offense, the one change being Warren McClendon Jr. at right tackle after Rob Havenstein retired; Alaric Jackson, Steve Avila, Coleman Shelton and Kevin Dotson fill out the group. Los Angeles did not allow a sack in Melbourne either, though San Francisco logged eight quarterback hits and PFF charted 14 pressures. Golston (neck) was limited in the first Week 2 practice report.

Giants Week 1 defense
0 sacks, 1 TFL, 3 QB hits, 1 INT (Jevon Holland)
Rams Week 1 protection
0 sacks allowed, 8 QB hits conceded
Rams OL change
McClendon replaces retired Rob Havenstein at RT

Source: ESPN box score, 49ers 27-7 Rams

Giants run offense · Rams run defense

Skattebo, Ricard and a Harbaugh ground plan against a front that got run over

Edge: Giants

The Giants ran 37 times for 165 yards against Dallas: Cam Skattebo 18-81-1 in his first game back from a broken fibula, Jaxson Dart 11-54, Devin Singletary 6-16, Tyrone Tracy Jr. 2-14 with a fumble that got him benched. Fullback Patrick Ricard, a Harbaugh import from Baltimore, is central to the design and was a full practice participant despite a toe issue; Najee Harris was a healthy scratch in Week 1 and may swap in for Tracy. San Francisco gashed the Rams for 174 yards on 30 carries (5.8 per) in the opener, and Rams inside linebackers Nate Landman (shoulder) and Omar Speights (hip) were both limited Wednesday.

Giants Week 1 rushing
37-165, 4.5 per carry, 1 TD
Rams Week 1 run defense
30-174 allowed, 5.8 per carry
Backfield split
Skattebo 18 carries, Singletary 6, Tracy 2, Harris inactive

Source: ESPN box score, 49ers 27-7 Rams

Rams run offense · Giants run defense

Kyren Williams and Blake Corum into Reader, Harris and Edmunds

Close to even

The Rams' backfield split was close to even in Week 1 — Blake Corum 10-54, Kyren Williams 11-41 with the touchdown, Ronnie Rivers 5-19 — for 122 yards on 29 carries, which was one of the few things that worked in Melbourne. New York's front held Dallas to 69 yards on 18 carries (3.8 per) behind nose tackle DJ Reader, Shelby Harris and Chauncey Golston, with Tremaine Edmunds and rookie No. 5 pick Arvell Reese at linebacker. The Giants defense is doing this without Dexter Lawrence, who was traded to Cincinnati in April for the No. 10 pick; Roy Robertson-Harris is on the reserve list.

Rams Week 1 rushing
29-122, 4.2 per carry, 1 TD
Giants Week 1 run defense
18-69 allowed, 3.8 per carry
Giants interior
Reader/Harris/Golston — no Dexter Lawrence (traded to CIN)

Source: Giants.com — Dexter Lawrence trade details

Rams coverage · Giants receivers

Trent McDuffie's Rams debut season against Malik Nabers

Close to even

The Rams traded four picks (including No. 29 overall) to Kansas City for Trent McDuffie and extended him; he lines up at right corner with Jaylen Watson at left corner, Quentin Lake in the slot and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. as the next man in. McDuffie's inside-outside flexibility under Chris Shula means he is the most likely travel candidate for Malik Nabers, though I could not confirm any reported shadow plan for Monday. Nabers was a full participant with a lingering knee concern after going 6-of-9 targets for 69 yards in Week 1; tight end Isaiah Likely, signed away from Baltimore, led the Giants with 8 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns. Watson's toe was described as uncertain in Week 2 reporting.

McDuffie acquisition
Traded from KC for No. 29 + 2026 5th/6th + 2027 3rd, then extended
Rams CB alignment
McDuffie RCB, Watson LCB, Lake nickel, Forbes next up
Nabers Week 1
6 rec, 69 yds on 9 targets; full practice participant

Source: ESPN — Chiefs trade McDuffie to Rams

Rams passing game · Giants coverage

A banged-up Giants corner room against Nacua, Adams and Whittington

Edge: Rams

New York's Week 1 outside starters were Greg Newsome II (signed in March) and Deonte Banks, with Paulson Adebo rotating and Dru Phillips in the slot — and the room got thinner rather than healthier. Adebo (knee) is on injured reserve; Banks (calf) is questionable after sitting out Friday and Saturday; Newsome (rib) and Chauncey Golston (neck) each closed the week full and will play. The Giants added a corner off the Chargers' practice squad. The Rams have their own hole at receiver: Puka Nacua is questionable — the club lists a hip, McVay described groin soreness — and is a game-time decision, and slot man Jordan Whittington is doubtful with a quad. Davante Adams (rest) practiced full. Nacua led the Rams with 5 catches for 74 yards on 9 targets in the opener, so if he is out or limited the target share moves to Adams and a tight-end group of Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee and rookie Terrance Ferguson — against a corner room already down its rotational starter.

Giants CB status (final)
Adebo on IR (knee); Banks questionable (calf); Newsome full
Rams WR status (final)
Nacua questionable (hip) — game-time decision; Whittington doubtful (quad)
Rams WR Week 1
Nacua 5-74 (9 tgts), Adams 3-26 (6 tgts)

Source: Rams final Week 2 injury report — Kinchens out, Whittington doubtful, Nacua questionable

Quarterback duel

Jaxson Dart's efficient debut against Matthew Stafford's worst opener in years

Close to even

Both starters are confirmed: Jaxson Dart for New York, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles. Dart went 23-of-29 for 230 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 134.2 rating, adding 54 rushing yards on 11 carries in Matt Nagy's offense under new head coach John Harbaugh. Stafford was 15-of-25 for 155 yards, no touchdowns, one interception and a 61.2 rating with a 31.3 QBR; the Rams went 2-of-9 on third down, 1-of-3 in the red zone, turned it over twice and scored nothing after the first play of the second quarter. Context matters: the "home" game was played at Melbourne Cricket Ground, and the Rams landed roughly 24 hours before kickoff while San Francisco arrived a week early.

Dart Week 1
23/29, 230 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 134.2 rtg, +54 rush
Stafford Week 1
15/25, 155 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 61.2 rtg, 31.3 QBR
Rams Week 1 efficiency
290 total yards, 2-of-9 third down, 1-of-3 red zone

Source: ESPN box score, 49ers 27-7 Rams

What this read does not know

  • The projections assume Nacua plays. Every prop number on this page and on the board was priced with Puka Nacua in the lineup. He is a game-time decision; if he is inactive, his target share redistributes — Davante Adams and the other options become overs relative to the published lines — and no projection on this page has been re-run for that. Check the inactives (released ~90 minutes before kickoff) before acting on any prop here.
  • Aaron Donald's snap count. He carries no injury designation on the final report (rest) and said of playing Monday, "That's the plan" — but no source gives a projected snap load for a 35-year-old two years removed from football, and the Rams had a two-game roster exemption for him.
  • Who covers for the Giants at corner. Adebo is on IR and Banks is questionable after missing Friday and Saturday. If Banks is inactive, whether Colton Hood or the corner signed off the Chargers' practice squad takes those snaps is unreported.
  • Whether Puka Nacua plays, and at what workload. Questionable, a game-time decision on a Monday night, and McVay said on Sept. 18 that Nacua "felt good but didn't feel totally like himself" and could not go full speed. Nothing published resolves it before inactives (roughly 90 minutes to kickoff), and no source projects a snap or route share if he is active.
  • Jaylen Watson's toe. Reporting described it as "uncertain." If he sits, the Rams' left corner job likely goes to Emmanuel Forbes Jr., and I found no confirmation of that plan.
  • Whether Trent McDuffie travels with Malik Nabers. No source I found states a shadow assignment for this game; McDuffie has the versatility, but this is inference, not reporting.
  • Giants RB3. Najee Harris was a healthy scratch in Week 1 and Tyrone Tracy Jr. fumbled and was benched; whether they swap on the Week 2 inactives list is openly speculated but unconfirmed.
  • Exact pressure and blitz rates. PFF charted 14 pressures for San Francisco against the Rams' line; I could not find a comparable charted pressure figure for the Giants' line or for either defense's blitz rate in Week 1.
  • How much of the Rams' Week 1 collapse was travel. The Melbourne trip (roughly 24 hours on the ground vs. San Francisco's week) is widely cited, but no source separates that from scheme or personnel.
  • Rams safety configuration. Kamren Kinchens (hamstring) is ruled out and Kam Curl (ankle) practiced limited with no designation; the fallback alongside Curl appears to be Jaylen McCollough, unconfirmed.
  • Whether Justin Dedich and Keagen Trost's absences thin the Rams' OL depth in-game. Both appear on the Rams' injury list; their designations and roles are unclear.

Reporting verified 2026-09-21. Further sources: CBS Sports — Garrett to IR, trade terms · NBC Sports — McVay undecided on Donald · ESPN box score, Giants 28-20 Cowboys · Big Blue View — Week 2 storylines · ESPN box score, 49ers 27-7 Rams · Yahoo Sports — Rams' McClendon at right tackle · Giants.com — Dexter Lawrence trade details · ESPN — Chiefs trade McDuffie to Rams · Ourlads — Rams depth chart · Rams final Week 2 injury report — Kinchens out, Whittington doubtful, Nacua questionable · NBC Sports Bay Area — Rams arrived ~24 hours before kickoff · ESPN — 49ers 27-7 Rams recap

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Mon, Sep 21
AWAY NYG -0.7
vs LAR -7
HOME LAR +3.0
Fair (books) · LAR 73% home win prob
Kalshi · LAR — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Inglewood, CA PASS — no position

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Giants

27%

fair value (books)

Rams

73%

fair value (books)

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27%

Madden 27

73%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Giants at Rams How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Giants at RamsSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Giants at Rams Kalshi spread ladder for Week 2: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Giants–Rams spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Giants vs Rams power ratings (Week 2) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    New York Giants-0.720thAverage
    Los Angeles Rams+3.03rdPlayoff

    Giants and Rams season outlook

    NYGLAR
    Average wins9.88.8
    Make playoffs66%42%
    Win division60%9%
    Win Super Bowl3.0%3.7%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Giants vs Rams — player pages

    All players →

    Puka Nacua

    WR

    Malik Nabers

    WR

    Blake Corum

    RB

    Kyren Williams

    RB

    Cam Skattebo

    RB

    Matthew Stafford

    QB

    Isaiah Likely

    TE

    Konata Mumpfield

    Tyler Higbee

    Colby Parkinson

    Davis Allen

    LA Rams D/ST

    Tutu Atwell

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the Rams by 7.5

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 — the graded call is above.

    The model does not think this one is close. The Rams rate 3rd of 32 at +3.0, the Giants 20th at -0.7, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Rams by 7.5 — 70% to win. That is the 3rd-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 2 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Giants need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +2.9 (5th of 32) against a Giants defense at -1.4 (19th) — 4.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+0.7, 13th) meets the Rams defense (+0.3, 6th), a 0.4-point gap.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Rams against 9.8 for the Giants, favored in 13 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 15th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Giants'.

    On the calendar, the Giants are on 8 days and the Rams are on 11 days. The Giants come in off the Cowboys, the Rams off the 49ers. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 70% on the Rams here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Giants vs Rams on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR
    Market-implied (Rams)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Rams)
    held — QB pending
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 73% for the Rams. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Giants vs Rams trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueRamsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig72% 72cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

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    Watch the breakdown: Giants vs Rams

    Jameis Winston's Secret Weapons: Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields | Kalsi Props and Fantasy Adds — video thumbnail2:56Jameis Winston's Secret Weapons: Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields | Kalsi Props and Fantasy AddsSep 23, 2026Can Jameis Save the Giants? + Tatyana Ali 1¢ to Win DWTS | Prediction Markets LIVE — video thumbnail44:20Can Jameis Save the Giants? + Tatyana Ali 1¢ to Win DWTS | Prediction Markets LIVESep 23, 2026Fade the Field Ep. 11 — video thumbnail37:32Fade the Field Ep. 11Jun 23, 2026

    Giants vs Rams — frequently asked

    Who won Giants vs Rams in Week 2?

    New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28 — final, played Monday, September 21, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 7 (73% to win), and the Rams won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Giants vs Rams before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Rams by 7 points, a 73% win probability over the Giants. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Giants to win?

    The 7.5-point line comes from a 3.7-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Giants still project at 27% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Giants defense (-1.4, 19th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Giants vs Rams?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Rams at 71c or below, or the Giants at 25c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Rams host the Giants?

    New York Giants visit the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, September 21, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 2, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.

    What does the model project for the Rams and Giants this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Rams at 8.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Giants at 9.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Giants', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Giants vs Rams?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Giants vs Rams on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 70% on a team like the Rams?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Rams at 70% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

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    Next up for each team

    Giants: Week 3 vs TitansModel line →Rams: Week 3 at BroncosModel line →

    More Week 2 matchups

    Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5

    Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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