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Home/NFL/Week 4/Chiefs vs Raiders
Gridiron EdgeWeek 4 · 2026AFC West rivalry

Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 4.5 (65% to win); the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Chiefs at 69c. The graded call and the settled contract are below.

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Settled

Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 4.5 (65% to win). The Chiefs won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Chiefs: +3c — we archived the Chiefs at 66c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 69c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board

Week 4 · 2026-10-06

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Raiders moneylineModel 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 31% on LV — kept as the pre-game record.31c35%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Two 3-0 teams, one left tackle: Maxx Crosby against an undrafted rookie, and the league’s rushing leader against a front that grades better than its yardage

Kansas City and Las Vegas are both unbeaten, both already own a division win, and the Raiders’ own radio partner is calling this the biggest game since the move to Las Vegas. The two matchups that decide it sit on the edges of the Chiefs’ line: Josh Simmons is out with a bulging disc, so undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson protects Mahomes’ blind side against Maxx Crosby, while Kenneth Walker III — the NFL’s leading rusher and AFC Offensive Player of the Month — runs at a Raiders front that allows a middling 116 yards a game but grades sixth in the league. On the other side, Kirk Cousins has thrown three touchdowns in every game behind a Chiefs pass rush that ranks near the bottom in pressure.

Injury and practice participation

Simmons out at left tackle for Kansas City, Powers-Johnson out at guard for Las Vegas, both quarterbacks full

Close to even

The Chiefs ruled out left tackle Josh Simmons, who has not practised since August with a bulging disc and is not expected back before the bye; Benson starts on the left and Jaylon Moore on the right. Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Chris Jones and L’Jarius Sneed are all on the report and all practised in full Friday, and Chamarri Conner is set for his first game of the season. Las Vegas ruled out guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, who left Week 3 in the fourth quarter; Caleb Rogers is the expected fill-in. Brock Bowers, back from a meniscus trim with 13 targets in his first game, was limited Friday with the knee and carries no designation. Cousins is not listed.

Josh Simmons, LT (back)
OUT — DNP all week; earliest return Oct 18
Mahomes (knee), Rice (knee), C. Jones (calf), Sneed (knee)
Full Friday — no designation
Jackson Powers-Johnson, G (groin)
OUT — DNP all week; Caleb Rogers expected
Brock Bowers (knee)
Full Thursday, limited Friday — no designation

Source: chiefs.com — Week 4 injury report, Chiefs vs. Raiders (2026-10-02)

Chiefs protection · Raiders pressure

Maxx Crosby and the Raiders’ pass rush against an undrafted rookie at left tackle

Edge: Raiders

Mahomes has been sacked four times through three games, his fewest at this point since 2020, and was 14-of-14 off play-action at Miami — a line that says the protection has held even with Simmons gone. The test gets harder here. Las Vegas has ten sacks, fourth in the league, a 42.5 percent pressure rate under first-year coordinator Rob Leonard, and Crosby carries the best pass-rush grade in football; Malcolm Koonce has eleven pressures and three sacks from the other side. Benson has been good enough to be named the conference’s rookie of the month, and Chris Jones’s own line about the Chiefs’ offense — "when they’re throwing the ball that quick, it’s tough for anyone" — is the plan: the ball comes out before Crosby arrives, or it does not.

Mahomes
67-of-98, 812 yds, 7 TD, 2 INT; 4 sacks taken — fewest through 3 games since 2020
Raiders pass rush
10 sacks (4th), 42.5% pressure rate; Crosby 89.9 PFF grade; Koonce 11 pressures, 3 sacks
Kahlil Benson, LT
Undrafted rookie; AFC Offensive Rookie of the Month
Raiders turnovers
4 INT, NFL-best +5 margin

Source: PFF — New faces, unexpected contributors fueling the Raiders’ stingy defense amid a 3-0 start (2026-09-28)

Both run games · both pass rushes

Kenneth Walker III against a front that grades sixth, and Cousins against a Chiefs pass rush that is not getting home

Close to even

Walker leads the league in rushing — 360 yards on 65 carries at 5.5 a pop, plus 442 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in September — and Kansas City is second in the NFL in total offense. Las Vegas allows 116 rushing yards a game, tied for 19th, but PFF grades it the sixth-best run defense, which is the gap a one-game sample leaves open. The Raiders’ own offense is the inverse: Cousins is tied for the league lead with nine touchdown passes and has thrown three in every game, Bowers caught ten of thirteen targets for 116 yards in his return, and Ashton Jeanty is doing most of his damage as a receiver while the ground game runs at a league-worst 34 percent success rate. The Chiefs’ defense allows the fourth-fewest yards in football but has four sacks and a pressure rate ranked in the twenties — Cousins has time, and Bowers’ knee decides what he does with it.

Kenneth Walker III
65 carries, 360 yds, 5.5 ypc — NFL rushing leader; 18-70-1 at Miami
Raiders run defense
116.3 rush yds/g allowed (T-19th); 6th by PFF grade
Kirk Cousins
9 TD (tied 1st), 67.4%, 107.2 rating; 22-of-33, 248, 3 TD in Week 3
Chiefs pass rush
4 sacks on the season; 12.1% pressure rate (28th, NFL Savant)
Raiders ground game
Jeanty 206 yds at 3.3 ypc; 34% rush success rate — NFL-worst

Source: KCTV5 — Walker, Benson honored as AFC’s best in debut month with Chiefs (2026-10-01)

What this read does not know

  • Our injury feed is practice participation, not game-status designations. The slate behind this page was run Friday at 16:51 ET; the two OUTs above are the clubs’ Friday filings and everything else is a practice line.
  • Bowers’ workload is the swing variable on the Raiders’ side. Limited Friday after thirteen targets in his first game back from a meniscus trim; Las Vegas has not said how it will manage him, and Cousins’ three-touchdown streak has run through Bowers once and through others twice.
  • How Las Vegas aligns Crosby — over Benson, over Moore, or moving — is not reported, and Benson’s pressures allowed are not published. The rookie-of-the-month award is a result, not a grade. If Crosby lives on the left, the Chiefs’ quick game has to be quicker still.
  • The Chiefs’ pass-rush numbers conflict by source. Four sacks on NFL.com and SI, two on one local count; pressure-rate rank 19th on one tracker and 28th on another. The read above uses the lower numbers because they agree with Chris Jones’s own description of the problem.
  • The power ratings behind the model line are this week’s board (as-of 2026-09-30, written by the Week 4 pipeline run). Both teams are 3-0 and the Raiders won six games last season, so Las Vegas’s rating is still carrying last year’s roster forward more than its own three games.
  • Our model leans toward the Raiders and we publish no game-line position on it. The model has this closer than the market does, which is the underdog lean our game model has shown in every week of the season, including the Week 1 board that went ten for ten the wrong way. Until that pattern is fixed rather than masked, a Raiders lean is a note, not a call.
  • Should you take Kenneth Walker under 99.5 rushing yards? We hold it at WATCH, and here is the fork. Our model projects 67 yards on 13.6 carries; Walker has carried 23, 24 and 18 times and run for 173, 117 and 70. The model is not projecting him to get the ball as often as Kansas City has given it to him, and that is the whole disagreement. Under wins if the Raiders’ front plays to its PFF grade and Mahomes throws early; over wins if the Chiefs run the way they have for a month.

Reporting verified 2026-10-03. Further sources: chiefs.com — Week 4 injury report, Chiefs vs. Raiders (2026-10-02) · raiders.com — Raiders vs. Chiefs Week 4 injury report (2026-10-02) · AP via KY3 — Chiefs LT Josh Simmons out with bulging disk, timetable uncertain (2026-09-30) · KTNV — Kirk Cousins silences placeholder talk as the Raiders roll into the Chiefs game (2026-10-01) · KCTV5 — Walker, Benson honored as AFC’s best in debut month (2026-10-01) · PFF — New faces fueling the Raiders’ stingy defense amid a 3-0 start (2026-09-28) · KCTV5 — Mahomes uses heavy dose of play-action for undefeated Chiefs (2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Chris Jones on the Chiefs’ pass rush (2026-10-02) · KC Kingdom — Chiefs pass rush remains a major weakness despite 3-0 record (2026-09-30) · NBC Sports — Cousins throws 3 TDs, Raiders move to 3-0 with win over Saints (2026-09-27) · raiders.com — Game preview: Raiders seek to keep rolling in showdown with Chiefs (2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Chiefs, Raiders meet in Week 4 with the AFC West lead on the line (2026-09-28)

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 4 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 4
AWAY KC +0.5
vs KC -4.5
HOME LV -2.7
Fair (books) · LV 35% home win prob
Kalshi · LV — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Paradise, NV PASS — no position

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Chiefs

65%

model win prob

Raiders

35%

model win prob

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57%

Madden 27

43%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Chiefs at Raiders

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Chiefs at RaidersSpreadMARKET READ

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Chiefs vs Raiders power ratings (Week 4)

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Kansas City Chiefs+0.513thAverage
    Las Vegas Raiders-2.729thBelow Avg

    Chiefs and Raiders season outlook

    KCLV
    Average wins10.58.1
    Make playoffs76%33%
    Win division54%13%
    Win Super Bowl4.3%0.9%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Before kickoff: Chiefs–Raiders is a coin flip on our numbers

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — the graded call is above.

    There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Raiders rate -2.7 (29th of 32), the Chiefs +0.5 (13th) — 3.2 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 5th-closest game of the 16 in Week 4. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 7.2 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Chiefs at 8.7 (favored in 9) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Chiefs'.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chiefs offense grades +0.8 (13th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -0.8 (19th) — 1.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-2.1, 30th) meets the Chiefs defense (-0.6, 15th), a 1.5-point gap.

    On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.

    One team has owned this series: the Chiefs are 34-14 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 14-12 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 52% on the Chiefs here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Raiders 35%, Chiefs 65%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Raiders contracts a buy at 33c or below and Chiefs contracts a buy at 63c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

    Full division picture on the AFC West hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Chiefs vs Raiders on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV
    Market-implied (Raiders)
    not listed yet
    Our model (Raiders)
    35%
    Model vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 35% for the Raiders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Chiefs vs Raiders trades

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueRaidersTrade
    Kalshinot listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the gameTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig33% 33cOpen Novig →
    Polymarketno captured price for this game — international bookSign-up offer →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    A live tile locked to Chiefs vs Raiders, Week 4 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

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    Chiefs vs Raiders — frequently asked

    Who won Chiefs vs Raiders in Week 4?

    Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The graded call and the settled Kalshi contract are on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Chiefs vs Raiders before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Chiefs by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Raiders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Raiders (-2.7, 29th) and Chiefs (+0.5, 13th) are only 3.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 35%/65%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Chiefs vs Raiders?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 33c or below, or the Chiefs at 63c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Raiders host the Chiefs?

    Kansas City Chiefs visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.

    What does the model project for the Raiders and Chiefs this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 7.2 wins (favored in 3) and the Chiefs at 8.7 (favored in 9). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Chiefs', by model win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Chiefs vs Raiders?

    Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Raiders at 33c or below or the Chiefs at 63c or below, off a 0.5-point line.

    Could you trade Chiefs vs Raiders on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Chiefs?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Chiefs at 65% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Raiders moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 31%, an edge of +3.5 points. Model 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 31% on LV — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Raiders hub →Chiefs hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 4 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chiefs–Raiders, Week 18 →

    Next up for each team

    Chiefs: Week 6 vs ChargersModel line →Raiders: Week 5 at PatriotsModel line →

    More Week 4 matchups

    Steelers at BrownsBrowns −2Colts at CommandersColts −5Titans at RavensRavens −7.5Patriots at BillsBills −2.5Jets at BearsBears −2.5Jaguars at BengalsJaguars −0.5Cowboys at TexansTexans −2.5Cardinals at GiantsCardinals −0.5Rams at EaglesRams −0.5Packers at BuccaneersPackers −3.5Dolphins at VikingsVikings −5Chargers at SeahawksSeahawks −8Broncos at 49ers49ers −3.5Lions at PanthersevenFalcons at SaintsSaints −2

    Full Week 4 board →Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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