Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 4.5 (65% to win); the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Chiefs at 69c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 4.5 (65% to win). The Chiefs won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Chiefs: +3c — we archived the Chiefs at 66c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 69c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Las Vegas led 13-10 at the half and 19-17 with 4:53 left, on four Matt Gay field goals and a defense that had not given up a fourth-quarter point all season. Then Tyquan Thornton caught a 55-yard pass and was carted off with a left-ankle injury, Walker scored from two, the Raiders lost the ball on the ensuing kickoff, and Walker scored again from 22. Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and got it back to 30-27, but Xavier Nwankpa intercepted him on the final drive. The line moved two points toward the Raiders before kickoff, and they covered it and lost.
Chiefs 30—Raiders 27
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. Our stored probability had Las Vegas at 34.5%, the market’s number anchored at weight zero to Chiefs −4.5, and the Chiefs won. The model’s own read was Kansas City by 0.7, a 3.8-point MODERATE lean toward the Raiders. Las Vegas lost by three, inside the points the market gave it, though the final margin sat closer to the market’s number than to the model’s. There is no game-line position on this game. A LOW-tier Raiders moneyline row was captured but never published, and it was voided on 2026-10-07; it is not a record. The player board carried no PLAY row. Sixteen WATCH rows that count went 7-9, graded apart from the record. Seven of the nine losses were the Walker under ladder, from 59.5 to 119.5 rushing yards, every rung of it beaten by a 177-yard day that included a 76-yard run. The wins included Ashton Jeanty over 2.5 and 3.5 catches and over 14.5 and 24.5 receiving yards (6 for 68), and Thornton and Xavier Worthy on catches. Jalen Nailor’s catch row is ungraded because he does not appear in ESPN’s box score. Two suppressed rows on Cousins’ passing yards lost and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 4 to 47.5; the game landed on 57.
Q2
Cousins hit Thomas for 27 yards and a 7-0 lead, and Patrick Mahomes answered with a two-yard touchdown to Thornton. Gay and Harrison Butker traded field goals, and Gay’s 48-yarder with no time left sent the Raiders in up three. Las Vegas held the ball for an eight-minute, 15-play drive in the second quarter.
Q4
A scoreless third quarter ended with Walker breaking free for 76 yards before cornerback Taron Johnson caught him at the 8. Two plays later Mahomes found Thornton for an eight-yard touchdown and Kansas City’s first lead, 17-13, the first fourth-quarter points the Raiders had allowed this season. Gay answered with field goals from 44 and 48 for a 19-17 lead with 4:53 left.
Q4
Thornton caught a 55-yard pass and was carted off with a left-ankle injury. On the next play Walker scored from two for 23-19, and the two-point pass failed. Las Vegas fumbled the kickoff, and Walker ran 22 yards for a touchdown on the next snap, 30-19 with 3:02 left. Cousins drove 65 yards and hit Brock Bowers from 20, then found Cody White for two, making it 30-27 with 1:46 left. The Raiders got one more chance, and Nwankpa intercepted Cousins.
Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Chiefs beat the Raiders 30-27 to move to 4-0 behind Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Kansas City and Las Vegas are both unbeaten, both already own a division win, and the Raiders’ own radio partner is calling this the biggest game since the move to Las Vegas. The two matchups that decide it sit on the edges of the Chiefs’ line: Josh Simmons is out with a bulging disc, so undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson protects Mahomes’ blind side against Maxx Crosby, while Kenneth Walker III — the NFL’s leading rusher and AFC Offensive Player of the Month — runs at a Raiders front that allows a middling 116 yards a game but grades sixth in the league. On the other side, Kirk Cousins has thrown three touchdowns in every game behind a Chiefs pass rush that ranks near the bottom in pressure.
Injury and practice participation
The Chiefs ruled out left tackle Josh Simmons, who has not practised since August with a bulging disc and is not expected back before the bye; Benson starts on the left and Jaylon Moore on the right. Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Chris Jones and L’Jarius Sneed are all on the report and all practised in full Friday, and Chamarri Conner is set for his first game of the season. Las Vegas ruled out guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, who left Week 3 in the fourth quarter; Caleb Rogers is the expected fill-in. Brock Bowers, back from a meniscus trim with 13 targets in his first game, was limited Friday with the knee and carries no designation. Cousins is not listed.
Source: chiefs.com — Week 4 injury report, Chiefs vs. Raiders (2026-10-02)
Chiefs protection · Raiders pressure
Mahomes has been sacked four times through three games, his fewest at this point since 2020, and was 14-of-14 off play-action at Miami — a line that says the protection has held even with Simmons gone. The test gets harder here. Las Vegas has ten sacks, fourth in the league, a 42.5 percent pressure rate under first-year coordinator Rob Leonard, and Crosby carries the best pass-rush grade in football; Malcolm Koonce has eleven pressures and three sacks from the other side. Benson has been good enough to be named the conference’s rookie of the month, and Chris Jones’s own line about the Chiefs’ offense — "when they’re throwing the ball that quick, it’s tough for anyone" — is the plan: the ball comes out before Crosby arrives, or it does not.
Both run games · both pass rushes
Walker leads the league in rushing — 360 yards on 65 carries at 5.5 a pop, plus 442 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in September — and Kansas City is second in the NFL in total offense. Las Vegas allows 116 rushing yards a game, tied for 19th, but PFF grades it the sixth-best run defense, which is the gap a one-game sample leaves open. The Raiders’ own offense is the inverse: Cousins is tied for the league lead with nine touchdown passes and has thrown three in every game, Bowers caught ten of thirteen targets for 116 yards in his return, and Ashton Jeanty is doing most of his damage as a receiver while the ground game runs at a league-worst 34 percent success rate. The Chiefs’ defense allows the fourth-fewest yards in football but has four sacks and a pressure rate ranked in the twenties — Cousins has time, and Bowers’ knee decides what he does with it.
Source: KCTV5 — Walker, Benson honored as AFC’s best in debut month with Chiefs (2026-10-01)
Reporting verified 2026-10-03. Further sources: chiefs.com — Week 4 injury report, Chiefs vs. Raiders (2026-10-02) · raiders.com — Raiders vs. Chiefs Week 4 injury report (2026-10-02) · AP via KY3 — Chiefs LT Josh Simmons out with bulging disk, timetable uncertain (2026-09-30) · KTNV — Kirk Cousins silences placeholder talk as the Raiders roll into the Chiefs game (2026-10-01) · KCTV5 — Walker, Benson honored as AFC’s best in debut month (2026-10-01) · PFF — New faces fueling the Raiders’ stingy defense amid a 3-0 start (2026-09-28) · KCTV5 — Mahomes uses heavy dose of play-action for undefeated Chiefs (2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Chris Jones on the Chiefs’ pass rush (2026-10-02) · KC Kingdom — Chiefs pass rush remains a major weakness despite 3-0 record (2026-09-30) · NBC Sports — Cousins throws 3 TDs, Raiders move to 3-0 with win over Saints (2026-09-27) · raiders.com — Game preview: Raiders seek to keep rolling in showdown with Chiefs (2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Chiefs, Raiders meet in Week 4 with the AFC West lead on the line (2026-09-28)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
KC
+0.4
LV
-4.2
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Chiefs
65%
fair value (books)
Raiders
35%
fair value (books)
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57%
Madden 27
43%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — the graded call is above.
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Raiders rate -4.2 (29th of 32), the Chiefs +0.4 (16th) — 4.6 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 48%/52%, and this rates as the 9th-closest game of the 16 in Week 4. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Raiders at 6.9 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Chiefs at 10.6 (favored in 10) — 3.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Raiders' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Chiefs'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Chiefs offense grades +1.3 (12th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -3.1 (29th) — 4.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 27th) meets the Chiefs defense (-1.0, 16th), a 0.3-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 18, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the AFC West race.
One team has owned this series: the Chiefs are 34-14 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 14-12 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Raiders are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Chiefs at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 35% for the Raiders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Raiders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 33% 33c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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41:41NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 1, 2026
ShortCardinals vs Raiders Preseason: Why We Took the Over 42.5 on KalshiAug 13, 2026
45:52NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14Jul 28, 2026Kansas City Chiefs 30, Las Vegas Raiders 27 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Chiefs by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Chiefs won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Chiefs by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Raiders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Raiders (-4.2, 29th) and Chiefs (+0.4, 16th) are only 4.6 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 35%/65%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Raiders at 33c or below, or the Chiefs at 63c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Raiders at 6.9 wins (favored in 3) and the Chiefs at 10.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Raiders' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Chiefs', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04KCLV has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Chiefs at 52% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 31%, an edge of +3.5 points. Model 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 31% on LV — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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They run it back in Week 18. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chiefs–Raiders, Week 18 →
Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2
Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5
Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5
Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5
Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5
Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5
Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5
Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5
Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5
Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8
Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5
Lions at PanthersModel: even
Falcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
