Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 8, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 5.5 in Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 9 2026 — 65% to win, and Commanders 23rd of 32, Rams 1st. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LARWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 30c or below (or Rams at 60c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LA
+6.3
WAS
-1.5
Rams
65%
model win prob
Commanders
35%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LARWAShasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 30c or below, or the Rams at 60c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Rams at Commanders
The Rams travel to face the Commanders in Week 9. Our power ratings put the Commanders 23rd of 32 at -1.5 (Average tier) and the Rams 1st at +6.3 (Playoff tier) — a 7.8-point gap that home field narrows to a 5.5-point line on the Rams, 65% to win. It rates as the 5th-widest of the 15 games in Week 9.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.9 (30th) — 7.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 0.9-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16) — 3.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 4th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Rams'.
Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-6 in the Rams' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Rams won 28-20 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
On conditions: Washington home games in November have run a median 50°F and 5 mph of wind across 10 games since 2015, with 20% at or below 40°F and a low of 33°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Rams here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LARWAS, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Commanders 35%, Rams 65%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Commanders contracts a buy at 30c or below and Rams contracts a buy at 60c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Commanders in Week 9?
Our power-rating model favors the Rams by 5.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Commanders. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Rams 1st (+6.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LARWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Rams vs Commanders?
Rams offense (+4.2, 1st of 32) against Commanders defense (-2.9, 30th) — 7.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV08LARWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 30c or below, or the Rams at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, November 8, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 9, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16). This game ranks 4th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Rams?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Rams at 65% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 5.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 9 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 9 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.