Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 2.5 (59% to win); the Broncos won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Rams at 55c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 2.5 (59% to win). The Broncos won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Rams: -1c — we archived the Rams at 56c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 55c on Sep 27. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Every game · Week 3
The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in
This game: Bo Nix under 2 TD passes (NO), rest 58¢, walk away above 61¢.
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
The Rams outgained Denver 482 yards to 257 and led 16-0 at the half, but they reached the red zone four times and scored one touchdown there. Nix threw two third-quarter touchdowns, each followed by a two-point conversion, to tie it at 16. Hufanga returned a Matthew Stafford pass 66 yards for Denver’s first lead with 4:49 left. Stafford answered with a 48-yarder to Konata Mumpfield, Nix took it back with a one-yard run, and Hufanga intercepted Stafford again in the end zone on the last play. The line moved from Rams −2.5 at the open to Broncos −1.5 at the close, so the market finished on the winner.
Rams 26—Broncos 30
Final✗ Call missedAll three claims on this page backed the Rams, and all three were wrong. The chip grades our stored probability, which had Denver at 41.25%. That number is the market’s own: it was anchored at weight zero to a Rams −2.5 line read at 10:41 a.m. ET on Sunday. Denver won, so the chip reads a miss. Note that DraftKings closed with the Broncos favored by 1.5, so by kickoff the market had already moved off the number the chip grades. The model’s own read had the Rams by 0.4, a 2.1-point lean toward Denver at WATCH tier, below the bar for a published lean. The ledger held one game position: a HIGH-tier Rams moneyline entered at 54.5¢. The contract closed at 50.5¢, a CLV of minus 4¢, and the ledger graded it a loss on 2026-09-29. A LOW-tier total row on this game was never published and was voided on 2026-10-07. It counts for nothing. The player board carried one PLAY row: Nix under 1.5 touchdown passes, MODERATE, YES at 41.5¢. Nix threw two, and the ledger graded it a loss. Eleven WATCH rows that count went 8-3 and are graded apart from the record, never folded into it. The wins included Nix under 14.5, 19.5 and 29.5 rushing yards (he had seven), Kyren Williams over 14.5 receiving yards (70) and Terrance Ferguson under 4.5 and 5.5 catches. The three losses were the Davante Adams under ladder on catches; he had seven. Five more WATCH rows were on stats the board suppresses (passing yards, anytime touchdown), went 3-2, and count in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 1 to 44.5; the game landed on 56.
Q2
Stafford found Tyler Higbee from five yards for a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. After that the Rams settled for field goals: Harrison Mevis kicked from 36, 35 and 40, the last one at the gun. Denver missed a field goal on its second drive and punted on three others.
Q3
Denver went three-and-out to start the half, then went 42 yards for Nix’s five-yard touchdown to Pat Bryant, with Jaylen Waddle catching the conversion. On the next Broncos possession, 52 yards in seven plays, Nix hit Nate Adkins from eight and found Bryant for two. The Rams punted on all three of their third-quarter possessions, one of them a five-play drive that lost nine yards.
Q4
Mevis put the Rams back up 19-16 from 48 yards. Then Hufanga, who had dropped two interceptions earlier, stepped in front of a throw meant for Williams and took it 66 yards for a 23-19 Denver lead with 4:49 left. Stafford needed four plays and 1:11 to go 77 yards, finding Mumpfield for 48 and a 26-23 lead. Denver went 65 yards in ten plays and Nix reached the ball over the pile from the 1 with 47 seconds left. Stafford got the Rams to the Denver 14. A false start pushed them back to the 19, and Hufanga intercepted the last throw in the end zone.
Reporting verified 2026-10-09. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Bo Nix and Talanoa Hufanga lead the Broncos past the Rams 30-26 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Both teams lost badly on the road in Week 1 and won at home in Week 2, which tells you almost nothing. What is concrete is the injury report: Puka Nacua did not practise all week and Sean McVay says he is doubtful, while Denver’s backfield is healthier than it was on Wednesday. Neither quarterback is on either report, so the game turns on who is available to catch and carry.
Rams pass offense · Broncos secondary
Nacua (hip) did not practise all week and is doubtful, and he was not alone — Colby Parkinson (TE, knee) also sat out Thursday and Jordan Whittington (WR, quadriceps) was limited. That is most of the group Matthew Stafford throws to. Los Angeles won 28-6 over the Giants in Week 2 with the offense functioning; the question for Sunday night is how much of that group is on the field to repeat it.
Broncos run offense · Rams front
J.K. Dobbins (hip), who left Week 2 early, and RJ Harvey (hamstring), who missed Week 2 entirely, were limited Wednesday and full in the latest official report; Jonah Coleman (ankle) had not practised. Denver rallied from ten down to beat Jacksonville 20-13 last week, and it is not obvious who carries the ball on Sunday night if the three of them do not improve. Against a Rams front that held the Giants to six points, that is a difficult way to start a game.
Season shape
Los Angeles lost 27-7 at San Francisco and won 28-6 at home over the Giants. Denver lost 31-10 at Kansas City and came back to win 20-13 at home over Jacksonville. Both teams are 1-1 with a blowout road loss and a comfortable home win, which is the least informative shape a two-game record can take. Denver has home field on Sunday night; that is the one asymmetry that has actually predicted anything for either of them so far.
Source: NFL.com — Los Angeles Rams 2026 schedule and results
Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: Yahoo Sports — Rams-Broncos injury report · Denver Gazette — Broncos injury report · therams.com — First look: Rams head to Denver for Sunday Night Football · NFL.com — Los Angeles Rams 2026 schedule · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
LAR
+3.0
DEN
+1.8
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Rams
59%
fair value (books)
Broncos
41%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
54%
Madden 27
46%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 — the graded call is above.
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Broncos rate +1.8 (9th of 32), the Rams +3.0 (3rd) — 1.2 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 3rd-closest game of the 16 in Week 3. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 10.9 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Rams at 8.8 (favored in 13) — 2.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 7th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Rams'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +2.9 (5th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +1.2 (5th) — 1.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.4, 17th) meets the Rams defense (+0.3, 6th), a 0.1-point gap.
One team has owned this series: the Rams are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Rams won 51-14 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Rams at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 41% for the Broncos. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 49% 49c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Los Angeles Rams 26, Denver Broncos 30 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Broncos won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Rams by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Broncos. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Broncos (+1.8, 9th) and Rams (+3.0, 3rd) are only 1.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 41%/59%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 39c or below, or the Rams at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Los Angeles Rams visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 10.9 wins (favored in 13) and the Rams at 8.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Rams', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Rams at 51% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 55%, an edge of +3.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 55% on LAR — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6
Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5
Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5
Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6
Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5
Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1
Titans at GiantsModel: even
Bengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2
Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8
Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5
Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5
Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5
Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5
Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
