Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 44% for the Broncos in Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 3 2026, while our model has the Rams by 1.5 (54% to win) — a 2.3pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 3 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
LAR
+5.1
DEN
+1.2
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 3 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Rams
54%
model win prob
Broncos
46%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
54%
Madden 27
46%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Rams at Broncos
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Broncos −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsBroncos −7.5 → Broncos −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Rams at Broncos
The Rams travel to face the Broncos in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Broncos 12th of 32 at +1.2 (Playoff tier) and the Rams 3rd at +5.1 (Contender tier) — a 3.9-point gap that home field narrows to a 1.5-point line on the Rams, 54% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.3 (1st of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Rams defense (+0.7, 7th), a 0.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 4th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Rams'.
One team has owned this series: the Rams are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Rams won 51-14 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Rams at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN contract implies 44% for the Broncos against our 46% — a 2.3-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- 44c · 44%
- Our model (Broncos)
- 46%
- Model vs market
- +2.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 44c on the Broncos is an implied 44% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 46%, a 2.3pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Rams vs Broncos trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Broncos | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% 44c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 44% 44c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 44% 44c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Rams vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Broncos in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Rams by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Broncos, for a projected score of Rams 25, Broncos 23 on a ratings-implied 47.8-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN market implies 44% for the Broncos — a 2.3pp agreement with the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Rams vs Broncos?
Rams offense (+4.3, 1st of 32) against Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Broncos?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Broncos YES is quoted around 44c against our 46% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Rams at 10.6 (favored in 16). This game ranks 4th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Rams vs Broncos?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN. The Broncos YES contract sits around 44c, which is an implied 44% — against our model's 46%. That is a 2.3pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Rams vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Rams?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Rams at 54% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Broncos moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 46% against a market price implying 44%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 46% vs market 44% on DEN. We pass — no position.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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