Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Rams by 2.5 in Los Angeles Rams vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 3 2026 — 58% to win, and Broncos 13th of 32, Rams 1st. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 37c or below (or Rams at 53c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LA
+6.3
DEN
+1.2
Rams
58%
model win prob
Broncos
42%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDENhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 37c or below, or the Rams at 53c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Rams at Broncos
The Rams travel to face the Broncos in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Broncos 13th of 32 at +1.2 (Average tier) and the Rams 1st at +6.3 (Playoff tier) — a 5.1-point gap that home field narrows to a 2.5-point line on the Rams, 58% to win. It rates as the 9th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +4.2 (1st of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Rams defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 1.3-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16) — 2.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 2nd-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Rams'.
One team has owned this series: the Rams are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Rams won 51-14 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Denver home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 84°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Rams at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 42% / 58% — the tradable window is narrow: Broncos at 37c or below, Rams at 53c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Rams vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Rams vs Broncos in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Rams by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Broncos. The Broncos rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Rams 1st (+6.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Rams vs Broncos?
Rams offense (+4.2, 1st of 32) against Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th) — 3.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Rams vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27LARDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 37c or below, or the Rams at 53c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Rams?
Los Angeles Rams visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Rams this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9) and the Rams at 11.3 (favored in 16). This game ranks 2nd-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Rams', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Rams?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Rams at 58% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 3 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 3 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.