Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Raiders
25%
model win prob
Patriots
75%
model win prob
Model line
Patriots −9
Kalshi (Patriots)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 5, the Las Vegas Raiders travel to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Patriots 1st of 32 (Playoff tier, +3.8) and the Raiders 31st (Below Avg tier, -2.9). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 9 — a 75% win probability for the Patriots.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 75% (Patriots) / 25% (Raiders) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Patriots in Week 5?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 9 points and gives them a 75% win probability over the Raiders. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Raiders vs Patriots?
Home win probability 75% (Patriots), away 25% (Raiders). That comes from a power-rating differential of +6.6 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Patriots rate 1st of 32 (Playoff tier), the Raiders 31st (Below Avg tier).
Can you trade Raiders vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Patriots host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 11, 2026 in NFL Week 5, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.