Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 14 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots, NFL Week 5 2026 — 81% to win, and the 15th-widest model gap in Week 5. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Patriots at 76c or below (or Raiders at 14c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-6.0
NE
+5.5
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Raiders
19%
model win prob
Patriots
81%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
35%
Madden 27
65%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Patriots at 76c or below, or the Raiders at 14c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Raiders at Patriots
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 more rungsPatriots −0.5 → Patriots −3.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Patriots −14.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Why the model has the Patriots by 14
The model does not think this one is close. The Patriots rate 1st of 32 at +5.5, the Raiders 32nd at -6.0, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Patriots by 14 — 81% to win. That is the 15th-widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 5 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -2.0 (24th) — 6.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-4.2, 32nd) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 5.5-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 10.9 wins (favored in 15 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1) — 5.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Raiders'. Nothing on the Raiders' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Patriots' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 New England home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 57°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Patriots YES is only worth buying at 76c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 81%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 14c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Patriots on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE
- Market-implied (Patriots)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Patriots)
- 81%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Patriots at 76c or below, or the Raiders at 14c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Raiders vs Patriots trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Patriots | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Raiders vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Patriots in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Patriots by 14 points, a 81% win probability over the Raiders, for a projected score of Patriots 29, Raiders 15 on a ratings-implied 44.5-point total. The Patriots rate 1st of 32 (+5.5) and the Raiders 32nd (-6.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 14-point line comes from a 11.5-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 19% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Raiders defense (-2.0, 24th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Patriots?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 76c or below, or the Raiders at 14c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Patriots host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
What does the model project for the Patriots and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 10.9 wins (favored in 15) and the Raiders at 5.7 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Patriots?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Patriots at 76c or below or the Raiders at 14c or below, off a 14-point line.
Can you trade Raiders vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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