Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 13.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots, NFL Week 5 2026 — 84% to win, and the 1st-widest model gap in Week 5. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Patriots at 79c or below (or Raiders at 11c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LV
-5.8
NE
+5.4
Raiders
16%
model win prob
Patriots
84%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNEhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Patriots at 79c or below, or the Raiders at 11c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Why the model has the Patriots by 13.5
The model does not think this one is close. The Patriots rate 2nd of 32 at +5.4, the Raiders 32nd at -5.8, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Patriots by 13.5 — 84% to win. That is the 1st-widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 5 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -1.9 (24th) — 5.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-4.1, 32nd) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 5.4-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 11.0 wins (favored in 15 of 17) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1) — 5.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Raiders'. Nothing on the Raiders' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Patriots' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 New England home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 57°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Patriots YES is only worth buying at 79c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 84%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Raiders at 11c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Raiders vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Raiders vs Patriots in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 13.5 points, a 84% win probability over the Raiders. The Patriots rate 2nd of 32 (+5.4) and the Raiders 32nd (-5.8); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What would it take for the Raiders to win?
The 13.5-point line comes from a 11.2-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 13.5-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 16% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Raiders defense (-1.9, 24th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
How do you take a position on Raiders vs Patriots?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 79c or below, or the Raiders at 11c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Patriots host the Raiders?
Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
What does the model project for the Patriots and Raiders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 11.0 wins (favored in 15) and the Raiders at 5.6 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Raiders', by model win probability.
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