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Home/NFL/Week 5/Raiders vs Patriots
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026

Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45

Final. Patriots' next game: Patriots vs Dolphins, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Patriots by 3.5 (62% to win); the Patriots won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Patriots at 63c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Patriots by 3.5 (62% to win). The Patriots won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Patriots: 0c — we archived the Patriots at 63c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 63c on Oct 11. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Raiders moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on LV — kept as the pre-game record.37c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Patriots 45, Raiders 17: Drake Maye threw four touchdowns and ran for a fifth as New England piled up a season-high 536 yards

Maye went 26 of 34 for 374 yards with two touchdowns to DeMario Douglas and one each to Hunter Henry and Kyle Williams, plus a three-yard run, and New England scored on seven of its 11 drives without receiver Mack Hollins or starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III. Las Vegas tied it 7-7 on Kirk Cousins’ 13-yard throw to Brock Bowers and did not score another touchdown until it trailed by 28. In between, Matt Gay’s 49-yard try after a Patriots fumble hit the left upright and Bowers lost a fumble at the New England 34. DraftKings opened New England −8.5 and closed −3.5, five points toward the Raiders, and the Patriots won by 28; 62 points went well over a 45.5 total that never moved.

Raiders 17—Patriots 45

Final✓ Call hit

Here the chip and the model’s own read agree, and both came through. The chip grades our stored probability, which had New England at 62.2%, the market’s own number anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3.5-point line, and New England won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was New England by 7.9, a 4.4-point MODERATE lean toward New England, and the Patriots won by 28: the lean was right. The quarterback gate read PASS. That lean never became a position. The ledger’s only row on this game was a LOW, model-only moneyline voided as never_published, so it counts in neither direction. The player board’s one PLAY row lost, and lost clearly: Maye under 2.5 touchdown passes, HIGH, YES at 22¢ (so the NO cost 78¢), closed 21.5¢, and he threw four. Three visible WATCH rows went 1-2 and are graded apart from the record: Maye under 29.5 rushing yards won on 25, Maye under 1.5 touchdown passes lost on four, and Cousins over 1.5 touchdown passes lost on one. Two passing-yards rows on Maye are suppressed stats the board never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Patriots −8.5 → Patriots −3.5
Total
45.5 → 45.5
Moneyline
LV +330 / NE −425 → LV +285 / NE −360

The spread moved toward the side that lost.

How it happened

Q1

Douglas wide open for 35, Bowers for 13, and Rhamondre Stevenson from five

After a Las Vegas three-and-out, New England needed five plays to go 79 yards, Maye finding Douglas alone for a 35-yard touchdown. The Raiders answered with 80 yards in six plays, a pass-interference flag on Kevin Byard setting up Cousins’ 13-yard touchdown to Bowers. The Patriots then went 84 yards in 11 plays and 6:49, and Stevenson scored from five.

After one
Patriots 14, Raiders 7
New England’s first two drives
5 plays · 79 yds · TD; 11 plays · 84 yds · TD

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Corey Kiner fumbled, Gay hit the upright, and Henry scored with 24 seconds left

Kiner fumbled at the New England 37 and Las Vegas recovered, but the Raiders gained seven yards in six plays and Gay’s 49-yard try hit the left upright. Maye then went 61 yards in five plays and found Henry from 11 yards out with 24 seconds left in the half.

Halftime
Patriots 21, Raiders 7
Henry touchdown drive
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:28

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Williams deep for 34, Maye from three, and Bowers’ fumble

The Patriots opened the half with four plays and 68 yards, Maye hitting Williams for a 34-yard touchdown. Gay’s 46-yarder got Las Vegas on the board again, and Maye ran in from three to finish a nine-play, 71-yard drive. On the next possession Bowers caught a 15-yard pass and lost the ball, and Craig Woodson recovered at the New England 34.

After three
Patriots 35, Raiders 10
Opening drive of the half
4 plays · 68 yds · 2:02 · TD

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Laube scored, the onside kick failed, Douglas scored again, and Fernando Mendoza came in

Andy Borregales’ 28-yarder made it 38-10 early in the fourth, and Dylan Laube’s two-yard run was the Raiders’ first touchdown since the first quarter. Gay’s onside kick went nine yards to Henry, and Maye’s eight-yard throw to Douglas made it 45-17. Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, replaced Cousins and drove Las Vegas to the New England 11, where the drive ended on downs.

Final
Patriots 45, Raiders 17
Maye
26 of 34 · 374 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT; 7 carries · 25 yds · 1 TD
Cousins
19 of 28 · 243 yds · 1 TD · sacked 3 times
Bowers
8 catches · 110 yds · 1 TD
Total yards
NE 536 · LV 306
New England red zone
4 TD in 5 trips

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the LOW model-only moneyline was voided as never_published), and grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • ESPN’s archived DraftKings close does not agree with itself: the spread closed at New England −3.5, but the closing moneyline (−360 / +285) is a price that normally goes with a line of about a touchdown or more, while the open (−8.5, −425 / +330) is consistent. This page prints the numbers as archived. Our stored anchor (3.5 points, 62.2%) agrees with the spread, not the moneyline. Which half of the close is wrong is not known here.
  • The AP names the Raiders receiver on the tying drive as Coby White; ESPN’s box score lists Cody White. The name is left out of the moments above.
  • TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) and Will Campbell (right knee) left in the second quarter and did not return, and Charles Woods (shoulder) left in the third; for Las Vegas, Tonka Hemingway and Patrick Johnson left with neck injuries. Severity was not known when this was published. Hollins’ absence of at least four games is the AP’s report.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game, and ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, so it does not say what moved the spread five points.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Drake Maye accounts for 5 TDs as Patriots roll past Raiders 45-17

The only 4-0 team against the spread, against the quarterback who just woke up

Las Vegas scores 28.8 points a game and is the one club in the league that has covered every week; New England scores 16.3 and is 30th at it. The market still favours New England, and the reason is that the Patriots have been winning with a defense rather than an offense. The game turns on whether Kirk Cousins gets the play-action looks he has been feasting on, and on whether Drake Maye can repeat a Week 4 that looked nothing like his first three.

Raiders pass offense · Patriots coverage

Kirk Cousins on play-action, against the one thing New England defends badly

Edge: Raiders

Cousins is two different quarterbacks depending on whether the play fakes a run, and the split is enormous. Off play-action he completes 71.8% at 9.6 yards an attempt with the highest touchdown rate in the league; off a static dropback he is 61.9% at 6.2 yards an attempt with a 3.8% interception rate. New England has held up well against the second thing and poorly against the first — 62.5% and 5.6 yards an attempt allowed against static dropbacks, 71.1% and 8.6 against play-action. That is the lever Las Vegas has, and it is the one Klint Kubiak builds his offense around. Three straight top-ten weeks for a 15th-year quarterback is not an accident of schedule.

Cousins, play-action vs static
71.8% / 9.6 Y/A / league-high 15.4% TD rate — vs 61.9% / 6.2 Y/A / 3.8% INT rate
Patriots allowed, play-action vs static
71.1% and 8.6 Y/A (23rd/22nd) — vs 62.5% and 5.6 Y/A (13th/5th)
Raiders scoring
28.8 points per game, 8th — and the only team 4-0 against the spread

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Raiders–Patriots Week 5 worksheet

Raiders pass rush · Patriots pass protection

The fourth-best pressure rate in the league, against a quarterback getting hit on half his dropbacks

Edge: Raiders

Las Vegas pressures the quarterback on 42.5% of dropbacks, fourth in the league, and Maye was pressured on 47.6% of his even in the win that fixed his season. The reason it has not buried New England is that Maye has been excellent when left alone and merely ordinary when hit: 8.6 yards an attempt from a clean pocket in Week 4 against 5.3 under pressure. Las Vegas has the inverse profile — they are tenth in the league at 4.8 yards an attempt allowed when they get home, and 24th at 8.3 when they do not. So both sides of this are the same question asked twice, and whoever wins it probably wins the game. The tell to watch is play-action usage: Maye went to it on 35.1% of dropbacks in Week 4 after 21.3% in the three weeks before, which is how a staff protects a quarterback it does not trust to stand in.

Raiders defense pressure rate
42.5% — 4th
Raiders Y/A allowed, pressure vs clean
4.8 (10th) with pressure · 8.3 (24th) from a clean pocket
Maye, Week 4
Pressured on 47.6% of dropbacks · 8.6 Y/A clean, 5.3 Y/A pressured · play-action up to 35.1% from 21.3%

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Raiders–Patriots Week 5 worksheet

Patriots defense · Raiders scoring

New England wins by ending drives, and that is the whole case for them

Edge: Patriots

Strip out the offense and New England looks like a contender: sixth in points allowed, third in the league at forcing a punt on 46.5% of opponent drives, fifth in pass-defense success rate, and fourth-fewest opponent plays per game. They do it by keeping games short — 57.3 opponent plays a game — and by never giving the ball back. That is a real identity and it is why our rating has them where it does. It also has a specific weakness against this opponent: Las Vegas is fourth in the league in pace at 67 plays a game and starts fast, scoring 3.29 points per drive in first halves, third-best. New England wants a 110-play afternoon of punts; Las Vegas wants to be up ten before the Patriots offense has found anything. Whichever half this game is decided in tells you which model was right.

Patriots defense
19.3 points allowed per game (6th) · punt forced on 46.5% of drives (3rd) · 61.2% pass-defense success rate (5th)
Tempo mismatch
Raiders 67.0 plays per game (4th) vs Patriots 57.3 opponent plays allowed (4th-fewest)
Raiders by half
3.29 points per drive in first halves (3rd) · 1.97 in second halves (18th)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Raiders–Patriots Week 5 worksheet

What this read does not know

  • Our model likes New England by considerably more than the market does, and the gap is a rating artefact we can name. Our power ratings have New England fourth in the league. That rating is built almost entirely on a defense — sixth in points allowed, third in forcing punts — attached to an offense that is 30th in scoring at 16.3 points a game. The market is pricing the offense and we are pricing the defense, and on a team four games into a season those are two different claims about which half is real. This is also the one lean of two-plus points this week that sits on a favorite rather than an underdog, which makes it the opposite of the usual failure mode and not obviously better for it. We publish no position here.
  • Nobody has a game-status designation yet, on either team. Today is Thursday. Official OUT, DOUBTFUL and QUESTIONABLE designations land Friday. Everything above rests on Wednesday’s practice participation, which for a Wednesday is often an estimate rather than a count.
  • Drake Maye’s shoulder is the single biggest unpriced risk on this page, in both directions. He is on the official report with a right shoulder, was a full participant Wednesday, and carries no designation. He has also said publicly that the shoulder is fine. We take him at his word because there is nothing else to take — but New England carries exactly one quarterback with projected volume in our slate this week, so a Friday change of status does not degrade this game, it voids it.
  • Week 4 is one week. Maye finished as the top fantasy quarterback in the league with 26.2 points after finishing 27th, 25th and 32nd in the three weeks before, and he lost a full point of EPA or worse on 9.5% of dropbacks against 21.2% through Week 3. We do not know which of those is the player. Our rating is a blend that mostly has not seen the good version yet, and a market that has moved toward New England has.
  • Mack Hollins did not practise Wednesday with a calf, and New England’s receiving room is thin behind him. Hunter Henry is the only Patriots pass-catcher to have forced a missed tackle after a reception all season — one, total. If Hollins is out, the yards-after-catch problem that already has Maye 28th in the share of his passing yards coming after the catch gets worse, and the play-action crutch gets harder to lean on.
  • We have no read on the Raiders’ interior offensive line and three of its pieces were limited Wednesday. Spencer Burford (knee), Jackson Powers-Johnson (groin) and Trey Zuhn (knee) were all limited. Las Vegas is 30th in rushing success rate at 30.3% already; whether that is the line or the scheme we cannot separate, and a patched interior against a New England front that ends drives is the quiet way this game gets away from Las Vegas.
  • The Raiders’ 4-0 against-the-spread record is a fact about four games and we should not dress it as a signal. It is the kind of number that reads as predictive and is not. It is in the module because it frames how the market has been wrong about this team, not because it forecasts week five.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: Sharp Football Analysis — Raiders–Patriots Week 5 worksheet · patriots.com — Week 5 injury report, Patriots vs. Raiders (2026-10-07) · raiders.com — Raiders–Patriots Week 5 injury report (2026-10-07) · NBC Sports — Raiders officially name Kirk Cousins their starting quarterback · ESPN — Patriots’ Drake Maye says the shoulder is fine · Sports Illustrated — Week 5 start ’em, sit ’em quarterbacks (2026-10-07) · Sharp Football Analysis — Week 5 practice reports, all 32 teams (2026-10-07) · 98.5 The Sports Hub — five cornerbacks highlight a 15-player Patriots injury report (2026-10-07) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 New England Patriots · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Las Vegas Raiders

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY LV -4.2
vs NE -3.5
HOME NE +3.0
Fair (books) · NE 62% home win prob
Kalshi · NE — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Foxborough, MA PASS — no position

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Raiders

38%

fair value (books)

Patriots

62%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

35%

Madden 27

65%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Raiders at Patriots How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Raiders at PatriotsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Raiders at Patriots Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Raiders–Patriots spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Raiders vs Patriots power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Las Vegas Raiders-4.229thBelow Avg
    New England Patriots+3.04thPlayoff

    Raiders and Patriots season outlook

    LVNE
    Average wins6.910.1
    Make playoffs12%74%
    Win division3%41%
    Win Super Bowl0.3%6.9%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Raiders vs Patriots — player pages

    All players →

    A.J. Brown

    WR

    Ashton Jeanty

    RB

    Brock Bowers

    TE

    Rhamondre Stevenson

    RB

    TreVeyon Henderson

    RB

    Drake Maye

    QB

    Hunter Henry

    TE

    Jalen Nailor

    WR

    Tre Tucker

    WR

    Mike Washington Jr.

    RB

    DeMario Douglas

    Michael Mayer

    Eli Raridon

    Kirk Cousins

    Connor Heyward

    Cody White

    Dont'e Thornton Jr.

    LV Raiders D/ST

    Corey Kiner

    Efton Chism III

    Kyle Williams

    NE Patriots D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the Patriots by 8

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 — the graded call is above.

    The model does not think this one is close. The Patriots rate 4th of 32 at +3.0, the Raiders 29th at -4.2, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Patriots by 8 — 71% to win. That is the widest gap among the 15 games on the Week 5 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Raiders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.0 (4th of 32) against a Raiders defense at -3.1 (29th) — 6.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Raiders offense (-1.3, 27th) meets the Patriots defense (-0.3, 12th), a 1.0-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 10.1 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3) — 3.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Raiders'. Nothing on the Raiders' schedule projects harder than this one.

    Recent history, for context only: 10 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-4 in the Patriots' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Raiders won 20-13 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 New England home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 57°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Patriots number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Raiders vs Patriots on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE
    Market-implied (Patriots)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Patriots)
    62%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 62% for the Patriots. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Raiders vs Patriots trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenuePatriotsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig63% 63cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Raiders vs Patriots, Week 5 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/raiders-vs-patriots-week-05-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Raiders vs Patriots

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    Raiders vs Patriots — frequently asked

    Who won Raiders vs Patriots in Week 5?

    Las Vegas Raiders 17, New England Patriots 45 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Patriots by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Patriots won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Raiders vs Patriots before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Patriots by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Raiders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Raiders to win?

    The 8-point line comes from a 7.2-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Raiders still project at 38% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Raiders defense (-3.1, 29th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Raiders vs Patriots?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 60c or below, or the Raiders at 36c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Patriots host the Raiders?

    Las Vegas Raiders visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.

    What does the model project for the Patriots and Raiders this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Raiders at 6.9 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Raiders', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Raiders vs Patriots?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Raiders vs Patriots on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11LVNE has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Patriots?

    71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Patriots at 71% over the Raiders sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Raiders moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 37%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 37% on LV — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Raiders: Week 6 vs BillsModel line →Patriots: Week 6 vs JetsModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Colts at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

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