Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD

Seahawks

52%

model win prob

Commanders

48%

model win prob

Model line

Seahawks −0.5

Kalshi (Commanders)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Seahawks — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Seattle Seahawks+2.73rdPlayoff

Washington Commanders-0.520thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 3, the Seattle Seahawks travel to face the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Commanders 20th of 32 (Average tier, -0.5) and the Seahawks 3rd (Playoff tier, +2.7). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Seahawks by 0.5 — a 52% win probability for the Seahawks.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 48% (Commanders) / 52% (Seahawks) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Seahawks vs Commanders — frequently asked

Who is favored in Seahawks vs Commanders in Week 3?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 0.5 points and gives them a 52% win probability over the Commanders. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Seahawks vs Commanders?

Home win probability 48% (Commanders), away 52% (Seahawks). That comes from a power-rating differential of -3.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Commanders rate 20th of 32 (Average tier), the Seahawks 3rd (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.