Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 4 in Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 3 2026 — 63% to win, and Commanders 23rd of 32, Seahawks 2nd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 32c or below (or Seahawks at 58c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SEA
+5.5
WAS
-1.5
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Seahawks
63%
model win prob
Commanders
37%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
57%
Madden 27
43%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 32c or below, or the Seahawks at 58c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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What the model sees in Seahawks at Commanders
The Seahawks travel to face the Commanders in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Commanders 23rd of 32 at -1.5 (Average tier) and the Seahawks 2nd at +5.5 (Contender tier) — a 7.0-point gap that home field narrows to a 4-point line on the Seahawks, 63% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 0.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.4 (20th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16) — 3.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-4 in the Commanders' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 38-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Washington home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 72°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Commanders 37%, Seahawks 63%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Commanders contracts a buy at 32c or below and Seahawks contracts a buy at 58c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS
- Market-implied (Commanders)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Commanders)
- 37%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Commanders at 32c or below, or the Seahawks at 58c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Seahawks vs Commanders trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Commanders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Seahawks vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Commanders in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 4 points, a 63% win probability over the Commanders. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Seahawks 2nd (+5.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Seahawks vs Commanders?
Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th of 32) against Commanders defense (-2.8, 29th) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Seahawks (+1.2, 2nd).
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 32c or below, or the Seahawks at 58c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Commanders?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Commanders at 32c or below or the Seahawks at 58c or below, off a 4-point line.
Can you trade Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Seahawks?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Seahawks at 63% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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