Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 41% for the Commanders in Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 3 2026, while our model has the Seahawks by 4 (63% to win) — a 3.9pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 3 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
SEA
+5.5
WAS
-1.5
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 3 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Seahawks
63%
model win prob
Commanders
37%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
57%
Madden 27
43%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Seahawks at Commanders
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commanders −3.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7 more rungsCommanders −4.5 → Commanders −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Seahawks at Commanders
The Seahawks travel to face the Commanders in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Commanders 23rd of 32 at -1.5 (Average tier) and the Seahawks 2nd at +5.5 (Contender tier) — a 7.0-point gap that home field narrows to a 4-point line on the Seahawks, 63% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 0.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.4 (20th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16) — 3.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-4 in the Commanders' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 38-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Washington home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 72°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS contract implies 41% for the Commanders against our 37% — a 3.9-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS
- Market-implied (Commanders)
- 41c · 41%
- Our model (Commanders)
- 37%
- Model vs market
- -3.9pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 41c on the Commanders is an implied 41% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 37%, a 3.9pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Seahawks vs Commanders trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Commanders | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 41% 41c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 41% 41c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 41% 41c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Seahawks vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Commanders in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 4 points, a 63% win probability over the Commanders, for a projected score of Seahawks 26, Commanders 22 on a ratings-implied 48.2-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS market implies 41% for the Commanders — a 3.9pp agreement with the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Seahawks vs Commanders?
Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th of 32) against Commanders defense (-2.8, 29th) — 5.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Seahawks (+1.2, 2nd).
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Commanders?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Commanders YES is quoted around 41c against our 37% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.6 wins (favored in 3) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Commanders?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS. The Commanders YES contract sits around 41c, which is an implied 41% — against our model's 37%. That is a 3.9pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Seahawks?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Seahawks at 63% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Seahawks moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 63% against a market price implying 59%, an edge of +3.9 points. Model 63% vs market 59% on SEA. We pass — no position.
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