Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 4 in Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Commanders, NFL Week 3 2026 — 62% to win, and Commanders 23rd of 32, Seahawks 3rd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Commanders at 33c or below (or Seahawks at 57c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SEA
+5.2
WAS
-1.5
Seahawks
62%
model win prob
Commanders
38%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAShasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Commanders at 33c or below, or the Seahawks at 57c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Seahawks at Commanders
The Seahawks travel to face the Commanders in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Commanders 23rd of 32 at -1.5 (Average tier) and the Seahawks 3rd at +5.2 (Playoff tier) — a 6.7-point gap that home field narrows to a 4-point line on the Seahawks, 62% to win. It rates as the 8th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.9 (30th) — 5.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 0.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against +0.4 (20th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16) — 3.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-4 in the Commanders' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 38-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Washington home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 72°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Commanders 38%, Seahawks 62%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Commanders contracts a buy at 33c or below and Seahawks contracts a buy at 57c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Commanders — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Commanders in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 4 points, a 62% win probability over the Commanders. The Commanders rate 23rd of 32 (-1.5) and the Seahawks 3rd (+5.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Seahawks vs Commanders?
Seahawks offense (+2.3, 7th of 32) against Commanders defense (-2.9, 30th) — 5.1 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Seahawks (+1.2, 2nd).
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Commanders?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 33c or below, or the Seahawks at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Commanders host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.
What does the model project for the Commanders and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 7.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Seahawks?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Seahawks at 62% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 3 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 3 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.