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Home/NFL/Week 3/Seahawks vs Commanders
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33

Final. Commanders' next game: Commanders vs Eagles, Week 8 →Upset: Commanders closed +320 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 8 (76% to win); the Commanders won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Seahawks at 78c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 8 (76% to win). The Commanders won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Seahawks: +5c — we archived the Seahawks at 73c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 78c on Sep 27. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game is a pass until Seattle names its quarterback. Fourteen other calls inside.

Washington 33, Seattle 31: Medrano’s 50-yard interception return with 3:57 left ended the champions’ 12-game winning streak, on a day the line had moved five points toward the team that lost

Marcus Mariota, starting for the injured Jayden Daniels, threw three touchdown passes, and a Washington defense that lost Leo Chenal to a neck injury in the second quarter forced three turnovers — Jadarian Price’s fumble on Seattle’s second possession, Sonny Styles’ interception, and Kain Medrano’s pick-six. Sam Darnold, back from his Week 1 glute injury, threw for 379 and four touchdowns, two of them to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (10 for 128), and Seattle outgained Washington 437-258 and lost. Rachaad White’s 19-yard run on third-and-9 and Mariota’s nine on third-and-7 ran out the clock.

Seahawks 31—Commanders 33

Final✗ Call missed

The chip grades the stored probability, which had Washington at 24.0% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from an 8-point Seattle line — so it picked Seattle, and Washington won: a miss. The model’s own read was Seattle by 8.05, the anchor almost to the decimal, tier NONE; the model and the market were wrong together. This row also carried the QB gate’s FORK for Seattle — Darnold in was the 8-point branch, Drew Lock the alternate at Seattle by 3.5 — and Darnold started, so the primary branch is the one that grades; Saturday’s article said a fork carries no position until it collapses and called the game a Pass. The ledger nonetheless holds a position that predates all of that. 2026_03_SEA_WAS_moneyline is a MODERATE row on the Seahawks, entered at 54.5c on Wednesday 2026-09-16, when the anchored line was Seattle by 2.5: 41.25% Washington against a Kalshi price of 44.5c, a 3.25-point edge to Seattle. It closed at 77.5c. That is a CLV of plus 23c, the largest on any Week 3 row by a wide margin — the market spent eleven days walking toward Seattle as Daniels went out and Darnold came back, DraftKings from Seahawks minus 3.5 to minus 8.5 — and the position lost, because Seattle lost 33-31. The code’s verdict on the move is toward-loser. Closing-line value is a claim about the price; it is not a result, and this page states both. The player board published nothing on this game — no PLAY row in either room — and eight WATCH rows went 5-3, graded apart; two of them were Stefon Diggs over 3.5 and over 4.5 receptions, and his four catches split them.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Seahawks −3.5 → Seahawks −8.5
Total
46.5 → 40.5
To win
SEA −198 / WAS +164 → SEA −410 / WAS +320

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 6 to 40.5; the game landed on 64.

How it happened

Q1

Price lost the ball on Seattle’s second possession, and Mariota cashed it to White inside two minutes

Seattle’s second drive lasted one play: rookie back Price fumbled at his own 20 and Washington scored four plays later, Mariota to White from six. Price did not touch the ball again until the second half. A Jacory Croskey-Merritt touchdown run that would have made it 14-0 came back on an illegal formation, and Seattle answered with 90 yards in nine plays, Darnold to Smith-Njigba from the 1 early in the second quarter.

After one
Commanders 7, Seahawks 0
Price
5 carries · 15 yds · 1 fumble lost
Seattle’s answer
9 plays, 90 yards, 4:58

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Burks from 11, Seattle stopped on fourth down at the 2, and 57-yard field goals by both kickers inside the final minute

Mariota found Treylon Burks from 11 for 14-7. Seattle drove 78 yards in twelve plays and turned it over on downs at the Washington 2, then forced a three-and-out from there and got a 57-yarder from Jason Myers with 52 seconds left. Drew Stevens matched it from 57 as the half ended, 17-10. Chenal was carted off late in the quarter with his teammates around him; Dan Quinn said afterwards he was at the hospital with feeling in his extremities.

Halftime
Commanders 17, Seahawks 10
Myers · Stevens
57-yard field goals, 0:52 and 0:00
Seattle fourth down
0 for 1 (at the Washington 2)

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Styles’ interception, McLaurin for 30, and the Saubert catch that survived a fumble at the goal line

Rookie Styles intercepted Darnold and three plays later, on a drive that began at the Seattle 43, Mariota hit Terry McLaurin from 30, 24-10. Seattle went 60 yards in eight plays and Darnold found Eric Saubert from 13 — Saubert appeared to lose the ball nearing the goal line and regained it in the end zone, a play ESPN’s log records as an own-fumble recovery — then 80 more in seven for Smith-Njigba from 11 early in the fourth. Twenty-four apiece with 11:53 to play.

McLaurin
6 rec · 77 yds · 1 TD
Total yards
SEA 437 · WAS 258
Darnold
31/45 · 379 yds · 4 TD · 2 INT

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

Stevens from 36, Medrano 50 yards the other way, Kupp with 2:51 left, and two third-down runs

Washington held the ball for twelve plays and 7:19 for Stevens’ 36-yarder, 27-24. On Seattle’s third play after that, Medrano — Chenal’s replacement — stepped in front of Darnold’s throw and went 50 yards; a celebration penalty pushed the extra point back and Stevens missed it. Darnold went straight back down the field, three completions to Smith-Njigba and a seven-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp, 33-31 with 2:51 left. Washington, 1 for 11 on third down to that point, converted twice on the final drive: White for 19 on third-and-9 on an audible against an all-out blitz, Mariota for 9 on third-and-7.

Medrano
50-yard interception return TD
Smith-Njigba
10 rec · 128 yds · 2 TD on 14 targets
Washington third down
3 of 13

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has graded this game’s position: 2026_03_SEA_WAS_moneyline graded LOSS (minus 55c) at 2026-09-28 00:55 UTC (20:55 ET Sunday), via the canonical settle pass (gridiron_edge/scripts/capture_edge_clv.py --season 2026 --week 3 --mode settle --tables game), run by Cowork once Kalshi had finalized the contracts — the same code the Tue/Wed launchd schedule runs. That grade matches the outcome stated above; the P/L figure is the ledger’s number, not this page’s. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The Seattle game-winner row was created 2026-09-16, before the quarterback fork existed. By Saturday the page published two lines and no position, so whether any reader could see a Seattle position on Sunday morning is not verified. The row is a ledger loss either way, and the plus-23c CLV is the row’s entry-to-close, not a settled profit.
  • The fair-value row’s primary branch assumed Darnold (fork_qb_in) and Darnold started; the alternate Lock branch at Seattle by 3.5 is stated for completeness and did not grade. When the fork was collapsed in the database was not seen.
  • The Saubert touchdown is logged by ESPN as “Fumble Recovery (Own)” and described by the AP as a catch he lost near the goal line and regained in the end zone; the AP description is used. The negated Croskey-Merritt touchdown is AP only.
  • Chenal’s condition beyond Quinn’s postgame remark is not known. Nick Emmanwori (hamstring), Lucas Patrick (ankle) and Percy Butler (concussion protocol) also left.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (64,027) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entry and close quoted are the ledger’s captures and the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Commanders snap Seattle’s 12-game winning streak, beat the Seahawks 33-31 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

An Oracle Fork on Sam Darnold: a full Thursday practice, two lines, and Seattle’s call still to come

Seattle has not said who is playing. Darnold returned to practice on Wednesday for the first time in two weeks, was a full participant on Thursday, and Mike Macdonald said the call comes before the weekend. Rather than hold a number back, we publish both — one line with Darnold, one with Drew Lock — in the fork block above. Washington is the settled half of this game and it is settled downward: Jayden Daniels is out and Marcus Mariota starts.

Seahawks quarterback · the unresolved input

The fork: Sam Darnold or Drew Lock, and the call due before the weekend

Close to even

Darnold strained a glute on 9 September and Wednesday was his first practice back. He was a limited participant and, in Macdonald’s words, "he’s not going to take every rep today. We’ll ramp it up as the week goes" — sharing first-team work with Lock — and on Thursday he was a full participant. The coach was explicit that the decision would not wait: "I don’t think we’d go into the weekend not knowing if he’s going to play," and that it is "a function at this point of, does he feel good enough to play?" The complication is that Lock has not been the problem. Seattle is 2-0 in his starts and he carries the second-best quarterback grade in the league through two weeks. This is a health decision, not a performance one, and it is genuinely open — which is why there are two lines above instead of one.

Darnold, Wednesday 09-23
Limited (glute) — first practice in two weeks, split first-team reps
Darnold, Thursday 09-24
Full participant; no starter named as of Friday afternoon
Macdonald on timing
"I don’t think we’d go into the weekend not knowing if he’s going to play"
Drew Lock, two starts
Seattle 2-0; 2nd-best QB grade in the league (92.1)

Source: Washington Times — Darnold returns to practice, no decision yet

Commanders offense · Seahawks defense

Washington is already down its quarterback, and this line is adjusted for it in both branches

Edge: Seahawks

Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow — the second such injury in two years — did not practise Wednesday, and Dan Quinn said he will be out "one week at the very least" while specialists evaluate him. Quinn named Mariota the starter on Monday, which makes Washington the settled side of this game: confirmed, but not the quarterback the Commanders’ rating was built on. That correction sits inside both of our Seattle branches, so it is not what the fork is about. Mariota went 11-of-16 for 111 yards and a touchdown in relief against Dallas.

Jayden Daniels
OUT — left elbow dislocation; not going on IR, week-to-week
Mariota named starter
By Dan Quinn, Monday 2026-09-21
Mariota in relief vs Dallas
11/16, 111 yds, 1 TD

Source: NFL.com — Mariota to start for Commanders with Daniels out

Seahawks defense · Commanders offense

The league’s best pass defense against a Washington offense missing pieces everywhere

Edge: Seahawks

Seattle allows 124.5 passing yards a game, the fewest in the league, and 8.5 points a game, second-fewest. Washington brings a backup quarterback into that with guard Sam Cosmi (concussion), linebacker Frankie Luvu (groin), tackle Javon Kinlaw (back/shoulder) and tight end Chig Okonkwo (hamstring) all held out of Wednesday’s practice — Okonkwo is now doubtful and Cosmi and Luvu did not practise in the latest official report — and safety Nick Cross already ruled out for Sunday after an internal injury that kept him in a Dallas hospital overnight. Where Washington can live is on third down: its own defense allows a 52 percent conversion rate, 29th in the league, against a Seattle offense that has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 277 yards and four touchdowns already.

Seahawks pass defense
124.5 yds/game — 1st in the NFL
Commanders third-down defense
52% allowed — 29th
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two games
277 yds, 4 TD

Source: commanders.com — Commanders vs Seahawks preview, Week 3

What this read does not know

  • The fork is the blind spot, stated as a number instead of hidden. Seattle had not named a starter as of the most recent reporting we could source, and the club said the call comes before the weekend ends. When it comes, the fork collapses to one line and this page keeps a one-line history of having been forked.
  • Our two branches are a league-average starter against a league-average backup — they are not Darnold against Lock specifically. The two lines sit exactly one flat quarterback term apart by construction. A player-specific value needs either an archive of market moves on quarterback news or an EPA-per-dropback comparison, and we have neither yet. That cuts particularly hard here, because Lock has the second-best grade in the league through two weeks and a flat term charges him as an average backup. Treat the gap between the branches as the shape of the uncertainty, not as a measurement of these two men.
  • Thursday moved the fork toward Darnold without closing it. He was a full participant and the beat coverage reads him as trending to start, but Seattle had not named him as of Friday afternoon. Safeties Julian Love (calf) and Ty Okada (hamstring) did not practise Thursday.
  • Because the starter is unresolved, no position publishes on this game at all — not on the line and not on a player. A position would have to hold on the same side in both branches to qualify, and for props we cannot yet run the slate twice with each quarterback pinned. Every Seattle prop stays flagged this week for that reason.
  • Jayden Daniels’s return timeline is open. "One week at the very least" is a floor with no ceiling attached, and this is his second elbow dislocation in two seasons.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: Washington Times — Darnold returns to practice, no decision yet · Yahoo Sports — Seahawks Wednesday injury report · NFL.com — Mariota to start for Commanders with Daniels out · commanders.com — Week 3 injury report · commanders.com — Commanders vs Seahawks preview, Week 3 · Yahoo Sports — Commanders rule out a starter (Nick Cross), 2026-09-24 · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY SEA +4.1
vs SEA -8
HOME WAS -1.8
Fair (books) · WAS 24% home win prob
Kalshi · WAS — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Landover, MD PASS — no position

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Seahawks

76%

fair value (books)

Commanders

24%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

57%

Madden 27

43%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Seahawks at Commanders How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Seahawks at CommandersSpreadWATCH · capped MODERATEMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Seahawks at Commanders Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Seahawks–Commanders spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Seahawks vs Commanders power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Seattle Seahawks+4.11stContender
    Washington Commanders-1.825thAverage

    Seahawks and Commanders season outlook

    SEAWAS
    Average wins10.16.1
    Make playoffs62%8%
    Win division22%5%
    Win Super Bowl7.4%0.5%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Seahawks vs Commanders — player pages

    All players →

    Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    WR

    Jayden Daniels

    QB

    Rachaad White

    RB

    Sam Darnold

    QB

    Stefon Diggs

    WR

    Chig Okonkwo

    TE

    Rashid Shaheed

    WR

    Zach Charbonnet

    RB

    Antonio Williams

    WR

    AJ Barner

    TE

    Emanuel Wilson

    RB

    Dyami Brown

    Austin Ekeler

    Jeremy McNichols

    Cooper Kupp

    Eric Saubert

    George Holani

    Tory Horton

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the Seahawks by 8

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 — the graded call is above.

    The visitors are the ones with the rating edge, and it is big enough that home field does not touch it. The Seahawks grade +4.1 (1st of 32) to -1.8 for the Commanders (25th); even after handing the Commanders their 2.5 points, the line is Seahawks by 8 and 71% to win. Road favorites of this size are the 8th-widest gap on the 16-game Week 3 board. The caution is the usual one: a preseason rating knows nothing about who is healthy in September.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +0.6 (14th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.4 (27th) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+0.3, 18th) meets the Seahawks defense (+2.3, 2nd), a 2.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.1, 1st in the league, against +0.3 (18th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Commanders at 6.1 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.1 (favored in 14) — 4.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Commanders' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Seahawks'.

    Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-4 in the Commanders' favour, plus 3 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 38-14 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Commanders are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Washington home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 72°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 71% Seahawks number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS
    Market-implied (Commanders)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Commanders)
    24%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 24% for the Commanders. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Seahawks vs Commanders trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueCommandersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig23% 23cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Seahawks vs Commanders

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    Seahawks vs Commanders — frequently asked

    Who won Seahawks vs Commanders in Week 3?

    Seattle Seahawks 31, Washington Commanders 33 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 8 (76% to win), and the Commanders won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Seahawks vs Commanders before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Seahawks by 8 points, a 76% win probability over the Commanders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Commanders to win?

    The 8-point line comes from a 5.9-point rating gap, less 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Commanders still project at 24% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Commanders defense (-2.4, 27th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Commanders?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Commanders at 22c or below, or the Seahawks at 74c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Commanders host the Seahawks?

    Seattle Seahawks visit the Washington Commanders on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD.

    What does the model project for the Commanders and Seahawks this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Commanders at 6.1 wins (favored in 7) and the Seahawks at 10.1 (favored in 14). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Commanders' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Seahawks', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Commanders?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Seahawks vs Commanders on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27SEAWAS has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 71% on a team like the Seahawks?

    71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Seahawks at 71% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 8-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

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    Next up for each team

    Seahawks: Week 4 vs ChargersModel line →Commanders: Week 4 vs ColtsModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenBengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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