Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had this a toss-up (50% on the Giants); the Giants won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Giants at 40c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game model had a toss-up (50% on the Giants). The Giants won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Giants: -1c — we archived the Giants at 41c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 40c on Sep 12. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
The Giants held the ball for 36:40, converted nine of eleven third downs, went four-for-four in the red zone and never trailed. Jaxson Dart threw three touchdowns without an interception, Isaiah Likely caught all eight balls thrown his way in his New York debut, and Cam Skattebo scored in his first game back from a broken fibula. Dallas closed as a three-point favorite and lost by eight.
Cowboys 20—Giants 28
Final✓ Call hitStart with what the chip above is actually grading, because on this game it is grading a coin flip. Our stored pre-game probability had the Giants at 50.4%. The stored margin, a separate number on the same row, leaned Dallas by less than a fifth of a point, which is why the page’s pre-game headline called the Cowboys the favorite at 50%. The derived grade reads the probability, the Giants won, and it will show a hit. It is a hit by four-tenths of a point on a game the model had no view on, and we should say that rather than take the credit. No position was published: there is no nfl_weekly_edges row for this game, and the final pre-kickoff report carried zero moneyline edges across the whole slate. That is worth sitting with, because the last active Kalshi price in our archive — 36 hours before kickoff — had the Giants at 39–40c against our 50.4%, a ten-point gap that in an earlier week would have printed a HIGH-tier position on the team that won. It did not print, the reason is not in the ledger, and this recap does not invent one. On the player board the final run carried eleven visible calls across the two rooms and they split by sideline. The Dallas side held: CeeDee Lamb under 5.5 and under 6.5 receptions (five catches) and George Pickens under 4.5 (three) all resolved our way. The Giants side was a wipeout. Skattebo over 2.5 receptions (none in the box score) and under 39.5 and under 49.5 rushing yards (81); Likely under 39.5 receiving yards (78) and under 3.5 and under 4.5 receptions (eight); Dart under 1.5 passing touchdowns (three) and under 29.5 rushing yards (54). Eight misses, one explanation: we projected Skattebo at 44.7 yards in his first game since the fibula, Likely at 3.1 catches and 36 yards, Dart at 186 passing yards and 31 on the ground, and the entire Giants offense ran past every one of those numbers together. That is a room-level miss on a first game under a new coaching staff with a new tight end, not eleven independent ones. Passing-yards strikes on both quarterbacks sit in the ledger and none count: the stat is suppressed, the board never showed them, and a call nobody could see is not a record. Four WATCH rows — Skattebo over 14.5 receiving yards and over 1.5 receptions, Theo Johnson over 14.5 receiving yards and over 1.5 receptions — were held back on magnitude and all lost; they are graded apart, as they always are.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 1 to 47.5; the game landed on 48.
Q1
The first Giants points of the Harbaugh era came from the back who broke his right fibula and dislocated his ankle last season. Cam Skattebo scored from the 3 with 6:40 left in the first quarter and brought back the backflip. He finished with 81 yards on 18 carries against a projection that had him under 45.
Q2
Dallas had tied it at 7 on a one-yard throw to CeeDee Lamb with 5:44 left in the half. Dak Prescott then threw to Jevon Holland, and the Giants turned it into a 15-yard touchdown from Jaxson Dart to Isaiah Likely with twenty seconds on the clock. Likely followed Harbaugh from Baltimore and was Dart’s first read all night: eight targets, eight catches.
Q3
Likely scored again from the 2 for 21-7; Javonte Williams answered from a yard out with 37 seconds left in the quarter. The Giants finished with 29 first downs to 21, 394 yards to 244, and 36:40 of possession to 23:20 on seven drives apiece. Dallas went 3-for-3 in the red zone and it did not matter, because it only got there three times.
Q4
Dart’s third touchdown went to Devin Singletary from 9 yards with 7:26 to play. Williams caught a 17-yarder from Prescott two minutes later for 28-20, then drew a taunting flag, and Brandon Aubrey missed the pushed-back extra point. Dallas was flagged nine times for 90 yards. The Giants put the ball on the ground four times and lost one, Tyrone Tracy’s.
Reporting verified 2026-09-15. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Giants roll over Cowboys in Harbaugh’s debut · ESPN — box score · AP — Giants open the season · AP — Skattebo’s return from the broken fibula
Dallas is missing All-Pro guard Tyler Smith for at least a month, right as a pass rush without Micah Parsons has to prove it can get home. On the other side, Andrew Thomas is playing near a career-high level in John Harbaugh's first game as Giants head coach, with a cornerback room that was still being sorted on Friday. The page above already treats the Giants moneyline as its value side despite the ratings gap; the trenches explain some of why.
Cowboys protection · Giants pass rush
All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith had thumb surgery and goes to injured reserve for four to six weeks. T.J. Bass fills in, next to a left tackle who now has Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Kayvon Thibodeaux to think about. Burns finished second in the league in sacks last season, behind only Myles Garrett. The Giants front graded poorly as a unit, but the one player who was elite in it is the one Dallas just lost its best answer to.
Cowboys pass rush · Giants protection
Parsons went to Green Bay in August of last year for two first-round picks and Kenny Clark. The replacement plan is Donovan Ezeiruaku and Rashan Gary on the edges with Quinnen Williams and Clark inside, in new coordinator Christian Parker's 3-4. Their first assignment is Andrew Thomas, who tied his career-high grade last season and practiced fully all week while managing a knee. The talent is real on both sides; the Dallas front has simply never played a snap together.
Cowboys secondary · Giants top receiver
Nabers is questionable with the knee he had rebuilt last October and cleaned out again for scar tissue. He practiced fully Wednesday through Friday, Harbaugh says he is ready, and Nabers himself says the decision is his and that sitting remains possible. If he goes, history says it matters: three career games against Dallas, three big ones, against a secondary rebuilt under Parker with no shadow assignment reported. If he sits, this unit disappears and the Giants' passing game shrinks with it.
Giants secondary · Cowboys receivers
The unofficial depth chart lists Greg Newsome II and Deonte Banks as the starting corners, with Banks — whose fifth-year option was declined after a rough 2025 — ahead of $54 million signing Paulson Adebo. Harbaugh has not announced a duo and has not ruled out rotating Banks and Adebo. Whoever is out there faces CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and a quarterback coming off a 30-touchdown season. The question is whether a rotating pairing holds up against two receivers who both cleared 1,000 yards.
Source: Big Blue View — Giants depth chart, Banks wins the starting job
Cowboys run offense · Giants run defense
Dallas averaged 4.6 yards a carry last season behind Javonte Williams, and the Giants allowed 5.3 — second-worst in the league. New York traded Dexter Lawrence to Cincinnati and signed DJ Reader, Leki Fotu and Shelby Harris specifically to fix that number. Whether three veterans and a new coordinator fix it in one offseason is untested, and Week 1 is the test.
Giants run offense · Cowboys run defense
New York ran for the second-most yards in the league last season behind Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Dallas's full-season run defense looks poor, but the split hides the story: before the Quinnen Williams trade the Cowboys ranked 26th in yards per carry allowed to backs, and from Week 11 on they were 19th and fourth in yards before contact. Whether the after-Williams version shows up in an opener under a brand-new 3-4 is the open question.
Giants quarterback · coaching
Jaxson Dart enters his second season in Matt Nagy's system, which Nagy describes as its own thing rather than a carry-over from anywhere. Harbaugh brought fourteen of his Baltimore staffers with him, including coordinator Dennard Wilson, who has promised to bring violence. Dallas counters with year two under Brian Schottenheimer and a first-year defensive coordinator. Two staffs installing new things on a Sunday night is a recipe for variance, and variance is the whole reason the page above is not sure who wins.
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: Giants — injury report statuses vs Cowboys · CBS Sports — Nabers on his Week 1 decision · Big Blue Interactive — Cowboys at Giants preview · Big Blue View — Giants depth chart, Banks wins the starting job · PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings · NFL.com — Week 1 injury report · Dallas Cowboys — Micah Parsons traded to Green Bay
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
DAL
-0.8
NYG
-1.0
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Cowboys
50%
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Giants
50%
our model
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Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 — the graded call is above.
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Giants rate -1.0 (24th of 32), the Cowboys -0.8 (22nd) — 0.2 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 50%/50%, and this rates as the 9th-closest game of the 16 in Week 1. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Giants at 9.5 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Cowboys at 7.7 (favored in 6) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Giants' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Cowboys'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +3.5 (3rd of 32) against a Giants defense at -1.5 (21st) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Giants offense (+0.2, 16th) meets the Cowboys defense (-4.6, 32nd), a 4.8-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 17, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-18 in the Cowboys' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Giants won 34-17 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Cowboys at 50% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13DALNYG contract implies 50% for the Giants against our 50% — a 0.4-point gap. No position on this game.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
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This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 50% for the Giants. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Giants | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 39% 39c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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55:162026 NFL Futures Board: Win Totals, Division Winners & MVP Odds | Fade The Field Ep. 16Sep 8, 2026Dallas Cowboys 20, New York Giants 28 — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had this a toss-up (50% on the Giants), and the Giants won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Giants by 0 points, a 50% win probability over the Cowboys. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13DALNYG market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Giants (-1.0, 24th) and Cowboys (-0.8, 22nd) are only 0.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 50%/50%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13DALNYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Giants YES is quoted around 50c against our 50% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Dallas Cowboys visit the New York Giants on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 9.5 wins (favored in 7) and the Cowboys at 7.7 (favored in 6). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Cowboys', by win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13DALNYG. The Giants YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our ratings line's 50%. That is a 0.4pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13DALNYG has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Cowboys at 50% over the Giants sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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They run it back in Week 17. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Cowboys–Giants, Week 17 →
Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Bears at PanthersBears −0.5
Buccaneers at BengalsBengals −2.5
Saints at LionsLions −7.5
Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsJaguars −7.5
Falcons at SteelersSteelers −2.5
Jets at TitansTitans −3
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
Packers at VikingsPackers −3
Commanders at EaglesEagles −6.5
Broncos at ChiefsChiefs −0.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
