New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Giants by 3.5 in New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants, NFL Week 6 2026 — 62% to win, and Giants 22nd of 32, Saints 25th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Giants at 57c or below (or Saints at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NO
-2.3
NYG
-1.3
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Saints
38%
model win prob
Giants
62%
model win prob
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44%
Madden 27
56%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Giants at 57c or below, or the Saints at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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What the model sees in Saints at Giants
The Saints travel to face the Giants in Week 6. Our power ratings put the Giants 22nd of 32 at -1.3 (Average tier) and the Saints 25th at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) — a 1.0-point gap that home field widens to a 3.5-point line on the Giants, 62% to win. It rates as the 14th-widest of the 14 games in Week 6.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.8 (14th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (13th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.5, 27th) meets the Giants defense (-2.2, 27th), a 0.7-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.7 projected wins for the Giants against 7.8 for the Saints, favored in 6 and 7 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Saints'.
One team has owned this series: the Saints are 9-4 in 13 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Saints won 26-14 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 New York home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 62°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Giants here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Giants 62%, Saints 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Giants contracts a buy at 57c or below and Saints contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Saints vs Giants on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG
- Market-implied (Giants)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Giants)
- 62%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Giants at 57c or below, or the Saints at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Saints vs Giants trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Giants | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Saints vs Giants — frequently asked
Who is favored in Saints vs Giants in Week 6?
Our power-rating model favors the Giants by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Saints. The Giants rate 22nd of 32 (-1.3) and the Saints 25th (-2.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Saints vs Giants?
Giants offense (+0.8, 14th of 32) against Saints defense (-0.5, 13th) — 1.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Saints vs Giants?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 57c or below, or the Saints at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Giants host the Saints?
New Orleans Saints visit the New York Giants on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Giants and Saints this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6) and the Saints at 7.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Saints', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Saints vs Giants?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Giants at 57c or below or the Saints at 33c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Saints vs Giants on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 6 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Giants?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Giants at 62% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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