Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 18, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Saints by 0.5 (52% to win); the Saints won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Saints at 51c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Saints by 0.5 (52% to win). The Saints won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Saints: -2c — we archived the Saints at 53c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 51c on Oct 18. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
The Giants led 10-0 at MetLife Stadium with 90 seconds left in the first half. Daniel Carlson’s 58-yard field goal, Isaiah Stalbird’s forced fumble on the ensuing kickoff and Shough’s 2-yard touchdown to Bryce Lance with one second left tied it, and Shough added touchdowns to Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave and one on the ground. Jameis Winston threw two interceptions and was replaced by McCarthy, who threw for 243 yards and led three scoring drives before his last possession ended on downs. Martin Emerson had two interceptions. DraftKings opened New York −2.5 and closed New Orleans −1.5; the Saints won by seven, and 61 points finished over both totals.
Saints 34—Giants 27
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had the Giants at 48.2%, so New Orleans at 51.8%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a half-point line, and the Saints won. The model’s own read was New York by 0.3, a 0.8-point lean toward the Giants, tier NONE, and the Saints won by seven: the lean was wrong. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED, with Winston priced as the Giants’ starter. The ledger holds no position: there is no nfl_weekly_edges row on this game at all. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Nine visible, gradable WATCH rows went 1-8 and are graded apart, never folded into the record, and six of the eight losses are one player. Isaiah Likely under 4.5 and 5.5 catches and under 39.5, 49.5, 59.5 and 69.5 receiving yards all lost on six catches for 99 yards, four of those catches and 55 of the yards from Winston. Noah Fant over 1.5 catches and over 14.5 receiving yards lost on zero from one target. The one win was Najee Harris under 24.5 rushing yards (four carries, two yards). Two Cam Skattebo overs (1.5 catches, 14.5 receiving yards) are left ungraded because the box score carries no line for him. One suppressed touchdown row was never displayed and counts in neither direction.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 1 to 46.5; the game landed on 61.
Q1
After the teams traded punts, the Giants put together the longest drive of the first half, 93 yards in 12 plays and 6:44, and Winston hit Tracy for a 17-yard touchdown. The Saints’ first three possessions gained 16 yards combined and ended in punts.
Q2
Carlson missed a 55-yarder wide left and Dominic Zvada’s 34-yarder made it 10-0. Carlson then made a 58-yarder with 1:18 left, and on the kickoff Stalbird forced a fumble by Charlie Jones that Oscar Delp recovered at the Giants’ 28. Shough scrambled 25 yards to the 3, and his 2-yard throw to Lance, the rookie’s first NFL touchdown catch per the AP, tied it with one second left.
Q3
New Orleans opened the half with five plays and 79 yards, Kamara taking a short pass 31 yards for the lead. A nine-play, 52-yard drive ended with Shough’s 1-yard run, Emerson intercepted Winston’s throw for Malik Nabers, and Carlson’s 51-yarder made it 27-10.
Q4
Blackmon intercepted Winston and returned it to the Giants’ 21, and Shough found Olave for an 18-yard touchdown and the 34th straight Saints point. McCarthy’s first drive ended in an Emerson interception, but after the Giants recovered a Saints fumble, Tracy scored from 5 with a two-point catch by Likely, Likely caught a 24-yard touchdown, and Zvada’s 41-yarder made it 34-27 with 2:04 left. McCarthy’s last drive reached Saints territory and ended on downs.
AP via ESPN — Tyler Shough and Saints score 34 consecutive points, hold on to beat Giants 34-27
Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Tyler Shough and Saints score 34 consecutive points, hold on to beat Giants 34-27 and end skid
Jaxson Dart is on injured reserve and the Giants’ rating was built on him, so this is a QB-adjusted game on our board: the lean is capped at a WATCH and we publish no position on the line. The football is a mirror image. Winston just posted a 300-yard, three-touchdown, 60-dropback game to pull a 14-point deficit back to a tie, and he may do it this week behind two backup tackles. Tyler Shough, cleared from last week’s fork, is coming off 96 passing yards and two interceptions against a defense that can actually rush him — and faces one this week that cannot.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
The input that governs the page. Dart went on injured reserve on 24 September and Winston, who signed a two-year extension on 7 September, has started every game since — this is his fourth. Last week he became the first Giant since 1950 to throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns while adding 25 rushing yards, on a league-high 60 dropbacks, with two scores in the last eight minutes of regulation to erase a 14-point hole and force the 27-27 tie at Washington. Harbaugh said afterwards the tempo offense may have "unlocked something" and will stay. None of that changes the gate: the Giants’ power rating still reflects Dart, so every number on this game is QB-adjusted and we take no side on the line. On the other sideline, Shough practised in full on Wednesday with the left hand still listed and no designation, so last week’s Oracle Fork is closed. His Week 5 is the concern — 16-of-25 for 96 yards, 3.8 a throw and two interceptions after the attempts were cut from a 45-dropback average to 25.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Saints–Giants Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Saints pass rush · Giants pass protection
This is the matchup the Wednesday report created. Thomas did not practise with a groin injury and Eluemunor did not practise with a calf; Harbaugh said Monday that Eluemunor is day-to-day with a chance to play, and said nothing about Thomas. If both sit, Winston — who holds the ball and takes hits by nature — plays behind two substitutes against a New Orleans front that is itself banged up: Anfernee Jennings did not practise with a knee and Tyree Wilson was limited with an ankle. The Giants also changed centres last week and will again start Bryan Hudson there. Winston’s own answer to protection problems last week was personnel: the Giants ran two-tight-end sets on a season-high 40% of snaps and half their passes came from it, and he went 22-of-28 for 227 yards out of those looks. With Isaiah Likely in-line on under 5% of snaps, that is a spread offense wearing a heavy costume, and it is where the Giants hide a bad tackle.
Source: neworleanssaints.com — Saints Wednesday injury report, Week 6 vs New York Giants (2026-10-14)
Giants pass rush · Saints pass protection
Both halves of this are true and they cancel. Since Kelvin Banks Jr. went to injured reserve, Shough has been pressured on 45% of his dropbacks, 27th in the league, and the splits are stark: 4.2 yards an attempt under pressure against 6.5 from a clean pocket, and neither number is good. The Giants are the one defense that may not be able to find him — a 25.8% pressure rate, last in the NFL, with Brian Burns on injured reserve and Abdul Carter a non-participant Wednesday with a calf. They did get to Jayden Daniels five times last week, so the floor is not zero. New Orleans compounds its own problem by throwing more than anyone but one team, 65% of snaps, with a 10-plus-yard run rate that is the league’s lowest, so the pass rush always knows what is coming. If Carter plays, this tilts toward the Giants; if he does not, Shough gets the cleanest pocket he has seen in a month.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Saints–Giants Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Both defenses · drive quality
New Orleans allows 30.2 points a game, 31st, and 2.75 points a drive, 30th; it has allowed the opponent to score first in every game, a distinction it shares only with Miami; and it gives up a 70.6% completion rate. Against a normal offense that is a problem. The Giants are not a normal offense: 30% of their possessions end in three plays and a punt, the highest rate in football, and they gain twenty yards on under 4% of plays, 31st. They have also not faced a team with a winning record all year. So the question is which bad trait wins, and the Giants’ defense is the tiebreaker — 21.2 points allowed (9th), 9.9 yards per completion allowed (5th), under thirteen passing points allowed to every quarterback but Matthew Stafford. New Orleans’ health matters here too: Chris Olave did not practise with an illness, and Alvin Kamara was limited with the back that kept him out of practice last week.
Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Saints–Giants Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)
Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: neworleanssaints.com — Saints Wednesday injury report, Week 6 vs New York Giants (2026-10-14) · giants.com — Week 6 tracker: news, notes and roster moves (Dart IR 9/24, Winston extension, Harbaugh 10/12 remarks) · Sharp Football Analysis — Saints–Giants Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Audacy / WWL — Saints initial Week 6 injury report: Olave misses practice, Zach Wood returns · Heavy — Saints give Tyler Shough hand injury update before Giants game · NBC Sports — 2026 NFL Week 6 injury report roundup (Shough’s hand will not affect his throwing) · SI — Saints vs Giants Week 6 preview (records, Shough season line) · ESPN — 2026 NFL standings (used in place of Pro Football Reference, which 403’d this session)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
NO
-2.7
NYG
-0.7
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Saints
52%
fair value (books)
Giants
48%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
44%
Madden 27
56%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 — the graded call is above.
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Giants rate -0.7 (20th of 32), the Saints -2.7 (26th) — 2.0 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 51%/49%, and this rates as the 8th-closest game of the 14 in Week 6. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge. One input in this line is not a rating: the Giants are without their usual starting quarterback (Jameis Winston starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 4.2 points toward the Saints — already inside the number above.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Giants at 9.8 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Saints at 6.2 (favored in 5) — 3.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Giants' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Saints'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.7 (13th of 32) against a Saints defense at -1.5 (20th) — 2.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-0.9, 26th) meets the Giants defense (-1.4, 19th), a 0.5-point gap.
One team has owned this series: the Saints are 9-4 in 13 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2025: Saints won 26-14 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 New York home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 62°F and the median wind 6 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Giants at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 48% for the Giants. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Giants | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 50% 50c | Open Novig → |
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| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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41:41NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 1, 2026New Orleans Saints 34, New York Giants 27 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Saints by 0.5 (52% to win), and the Saints won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Saints by 0.5 points, a 52% win probability over the Giants. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Giants (-0.7, 20th) and Saints (-2.7, 26th) are only 2.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 48%/52%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 46c or below, or the Saints at 50c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New Orleans Saints visit the New York Giants on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 9.8 wins (favored in 7) and the Saints at 6.2 (favored in 5). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Saints', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18NONYG has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Giants at 51% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 0.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 52% against a market price implying 51%, an edge of +0.8 points. Model 52% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 51% on NO — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Seahawks at BroncosModel: even
Texans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5
Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5
Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5
Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5
Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5
Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5
Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2
Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5
Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5
Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3
Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5
Commanders at 49ersModel: 49ers −7The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
