Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Broncos
33%
model win prob
Patriots
67%
model win prob
Model line
Patriots −6
Kalshi (Patriots)
—
Edge
pending
Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff
KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.
Power-rating comparison
The prediction-market read
In Week 17, the Denver Broncos travel to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Patriots 1st of 32 (Playoff tier, +3.8) and the Broncos 13th (Average tier, +0.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 6 — a 67% win probability for the Patriots.
Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 67% (Patriots) / 33% (Broncos) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Patriots in Week 17?
Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 6 points and gives them a 67% win probability over the Broncos. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.
What does the model project for Broncos vs Patriots?
Home win probability 67% (Patriots), away 33% (Broncos). That comes from a power-rating differential of +3.5 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Patriots rate 1st of 32 (Playoff tier), the Broncos 13th (Average tier).
Can you trade Broncos vs Patriots on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.
When and where do the Patriots host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, January 3, 2027 in NFL Week 17, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.