Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 6.5 in Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots, NFL Week 17 2026 — 69% to win, and a New England January game that has run a median 35°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03DENNE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Patriots at 64c or below (or Broncos at 26c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
NE
+5.4
Broncos
31%
model win prob
Patriots
69%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03DENNEhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Patriots at 64c or below, or the Broncos at 26c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Cold-weather math: Broncos at Patriots in January
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 11 New England home games in January since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 35°F with 6 mph of wind, and 64% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 24°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +5.4 for the Patriots, +1.2 for the Broncos, and lands on the Patriots by 6.5 (69%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Broncos defense at +0.4 (8th) — 3.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 0.7-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Patriots at 11.0 wins (favored in 15 of 17) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9) — 1.9 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Patriots' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Broncos'. Nothing on the Broncos' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 15 regular-season meetings since 2002, 9-6 in the Patriots' favour, plus 6 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Patriots won 26-23 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Patriots are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03DENNE, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Patriots 69%, Broncos 31%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Patriots contracts a buy at 64c or below and Broncos contracts a buy at 26c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Patriots — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Patriots in Week 17?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 6.5 points, a 69% win probability over the Broncos. The Patriots rate 2nd of 32 (+5.4) and the Broncos 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03DENNE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for New England games in January?
Across 11 New England home games in January since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 35°F with 6 mph wind, 64% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 24°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 6.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Patriots?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03DENNE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Patriots at 64c or below, or the Broncos at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Patriots host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the New England Patriots on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA.
What does the model project for the Patriots and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Patriots at 11.0 wins (favored in 15) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Patriots' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
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