Kansas City Chiefs: 2026 Win Total & Market Edge
Board as of · prices live
The prediction-market read on the Chiefs: our 10,000-season simulation projects 11.2 wins in 2026 (3rd of 32, Playoff tier; model 11.2), beside the live Kalshi win-total line. Full schedule, per-game win probabilities and AFC West standing below.
This week on the boardNFL Week 7 predictions →NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines →Week 6 results →
Week 7 gamesPatriots at BearsSteelers at Saints49ers at FalconsBengals at RavensBuccaneers at PanthersGiants at TexansColts at VikingsDolphins at JetsBrowns at TitansBroncos at CardinalsPackers at LionsRams at RaidersChiefs at SeahawksCowboys at Eagles
Entering Week 7: experts 2 · market-implied 7 · PMP 14 — a 12-place split between Experts and PMP. Experts vs. market on the Chiefs →
2026 win total: our model vs. Kalshi
Kansas City Chiefs
± 1.7 · 3rd of 32
Model agrees with the market
Divergence is projected wins minus the ladder-implied market line, in wins — LOW on the one ladder every season-wins surface grades on (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); OVER / UNDER fires at ±2.0. Projected wins are the 10,000-season simulation mean; the model — wins already banked plus the rest of the season — reads 11.2. No single rung sits near 50¢.
See all 32 teams on the win-totals board → Informational only — verify the market and trade responsibly.
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The consensus spread
Three independent estimates of the same season on one line: the expected wins implied by the live Kalshi ladder, our 10,000-season simulation, and EA’s Madden 27 simulation. Where they disagree is the whole signal.
Both independent models sit on the same side of the market line — our sim at 11.20 and the Madden simulation at 9.96 against 12.18 implied wins. That is the cleanest version of this signal.
Madden is a bit higher on the Chiefs than our model, 6 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Where the season actually lands
A point estimate cannot tell a trader whether to take a position — the full distribution against the contract line can. Bars are the Madden 27 simulation over 10,000 seasons; the dashed marker is the live contract.
of clearing 12.18
-21.1pp vs a coin flip
Our probability from the 10,000-season simulation (mean 11.20 wins; model, banked wins plus the rest of the season, 11.15 ± 1.69). Bars: Madden 27 sim-2026, 10,000 iterations. Two methods, no shared inputs.
The Ladder — Chiefs
All ladders →The season simulation at every Kalshi win-total rung, then the widest player-prop gap on this club this week. The rungs the market has not listed two-sided yet are drawn from the simulation alone.
Kalshi prices 13+ wins at 49¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 17+winsthin—outside band
- 16+wins—outside band
- 15+wins—outside band
- 14+wins—outside band
- 13+wins—outside band
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 12–13
- 12+wins——
- 11+wins——
- 10+wins—outside band
- 9+wins—outside band
- 8+wins—outside band
- 7+winsthin—outside band
- 6+winsthin—outside band
- 5+winsthin—outside band
- 3+winsthin—outside band
- 2+winsthin—outside band
- 1+winsthin—outside band
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 4+ rec at 45¢ — a coin flip. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 6+rec——
- 5+rec——
- 4+rec42¢—
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 3–4
- 3+rec——
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 4+ rec Kalshi's YES costs 45¢, the books imply 42¢ — 2.4 points above the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Kalshi prices 2+ rec at 57¢. Where the Oracle line sits on each rung is Pro.
- 3+rec——
- Kalshi's 50% line · it expects 1–2
- 2+rec59¢—
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
At 2+ rec Kalshi's NO costs 43¢, the books imply 41¢ — 1.0 points below the book read.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Market edges
The season contract and the single game most likely to move it, graded on the same thresholds every other Gridiron Edge surface uses.
Season wins under 12.18
Our 10,000-season simulation projects 11.20 (model 11.15), the Madden 27 simulation 9.96, against 12.18 market-implied wins — a -0.98-win gap. LOW on the wins ladder (STRONG ≥2.0 · HIGH ≥1.5 · MODERATE ≥1.0); a side is flagged only at the 2.0-win STRONG rung, so the honest read is no position.
Week 15 vs Patriots
The truest coin flip on the schedule at 50%. Games this close are where a season win total is actually decided — and where a live in-week contract is most likely to be mispriced. Full read →
Informational only. Contracts can settle at $0 — verify the market and trade responsibly.
Power rating breakdown
Diverging from league average rather than four flat numbers, so a positive reads as a positive at a glance. Points per game.
Overall +1.2 ranks 12th of 32 (Playoff tier). How Chiefs rank on the points scale → Re-weight the model yourself →
Methodology: DAEPA model docs → (59.6% backtested straight-up accuracy across 3,266 games, no market line used).
The season path
Seventeen weeks as a heat ribbon — the shape of the season in one glance, each cell linking to that game’s full read. The sortable table stays below it.
Roster shape vs the league
Nine position groups against league average. Each axis is scaled on its own league range — a shared 0-100 scale flattens every roster into the same circle.
Dashed violet ring = league average. Number chip = rank of 32. Source: Madden 27 launch team composites (derived unit aggregates, no per-player data).
2026 schedule & model win probabilities
All 17 regular-season games. Played games show the final; the rest show Our %, the DAEPA margin (power-rating differential + 2.5-point home-field) run through a Normal model, σ=14.4 — those numbers plus the 5-0 already banked sum to the model's 11.2 wins; the 11.2-win headline above is the 10,000-season simulation, which adds rating uncertainty (and fits its own home-field, 2.0) on top of these same ratings. Madden % is the same question asked of Madden 27 talent composites, a model that shares none of our inputs.
Chiefs player props vs the Kalshi line
Our projection against the live Kalshi contract. Every prop is an “X or more” contract that pays $1 if the player gets there, so the price of the side we call, in cents,is the market’s implied probability — the edge is the gap between that and ours, in percentage points. Closest strike to our projection first.
| Player | Contract | Call | Our odds | Mkt | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB | 80+ rush ydsover 79.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB | 4+ receptionsover 3.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB | 20+ rec ydsover 19.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
| Patrick MahomesQB | 15+ rush ydsover 14.5 | NO | Pro subscribers only | Pro subscribers only | MODERATE |
All 57 player-prop edges for Week 7 →Locked numbers are Pro.
Chiefs props: where the market prices are
The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — our Oracle calls are the opinion.
No Kalshi strike in this slice is 5¢+ off the sportsbooks right now — the market agrees with itself.
| Player | Prop | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth WalkerRBKC v SEA | 4+ rec | 44.5¢ | 42.1%6bk | +2.4¢ | over · ESPN Bet 43.5¢under · Novig 56.5¢ |
| Noah GrayKC v SEA | 2+ rec | 57.5¢ | 58.5%6bk | -1.0¢ | over · Kalshi 59.7¢under · DK 41.8¢ |
| Noah GrayKC v SEA | 15+ rec yds | 52.0¢ | 52.9%2bk | -0.9¢ | over · Kalshi 54.7¢under · Novig 49¢ |
| Kenneth WalkerRBKC v SEA | 20+ rec yds | 52.0¢ | 52.7%4bk | -0.7¢ | over · DK 53.9¢under · Novig 46.9¢ |
| Patrick MahomesQBKC v SEA | 15+ rush yds | 56.0¢ | 56.6%3bk | -0.6¢ | over · ESPN Bet 56.5¢under · Novig 44.1¢ |
| Xavier WorthyKC v SEA | 50+ rec yds | 50.5¢ | 50.0%3bk | +0.5¢ | over · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 50¢ |
| Jalen RoyalsKC v SEA | 3+ rec | 40.0¢ | 40.3%5bk | -0.3¢ | over · BetRivers 40.8¢under · Novig 60.9¢ |
| Kenneth WalkerKC v SEA | 40+ rec yds | 21.0¢ | 23.1%exch | -2.1¢ | over · Kalshi 23.2¢under · Novig 80¢ |
See all 76 priced prop strikes on the board →+ 80 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.
Chiefs player pages
All players →Kenneth Walker III
RB — Rush Yds · Receptions · Rec Yds
Patrick Mahomes
QB — Rush Yds
Travis Kelce
TE
Rashee Rice
WR
Xavier Worthy
WR
Emmett Johnson
RB
Noah Gray
Jalen Royals
Cyrus Allen
KC Chiefs D/ST
Andrew Armstrong
Brashard Smith
Chris Oladokun
Elijah McGuire
Emari Demercado
Jake Briningstool
Jared Wiley
Jason Brownlee
Justin Fields
Kenneth Walker
Mason Pline
Nikko Remigio
Tyquan Thornton
One page per player: every Kalshi strike, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
AFC West ladder
Projected wins across the division, leader in gold — and four internal reads a click away.
Chiefs
11.2
+1.2
Broncos
10.2
+1.3
Raiders
7.5
-3.2
Chargers
4.3
-3.2
Model has the Chiefs 1st in the AFC West. Division hub →
Division odds: Chiefs 67¢ to win the AFC West on Kalshi.
10,000-season simulation
How it works →Our current board, with the 94 games already played locked in and the remaining schedule played out 10,000 times with the league's actual tiebreaker procedure. The projection above is the middle of this; these are the odds around it. The sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games) — a separate fit from the +2.5 the game model uses on matchup pages.
Sim average wins
11.2
10,000 seasons · 77% reach 10+
Make playoffs
83%
1% win 6 or fewer
Win division
60%
19% take the 1 seed
Win Super Bowl
5.3%
7th of 32 · 11% reach it
The Chiefs draw a 0.477 opponent win rate — the 30th-hardest schedule in the league.
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings. Real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule. No injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices.
Madden 27 outlook
Full board →A second opinion, built from Madden 27 launch ratings alone and played across the real 2026 schedule 10,000 times. It knows nothing about our own model — which is what makes the disagreement worth reading.
Madden rank
6
83.7 composite · QB 93
Simulated wins
10.0
57% reach 10+
Playoffs
66%
42% win division
Super Bowl
6.9%
SoS 0.499 (18th hardest)
Madden is a bit higher on the Chiefs than our model, 6 places apart — a real but modest difference of opinion.
Madden-only inputs — no injuries, no in-season roster change, no market prices. Average error on a season win total is 2.27 wins, so the distribution is the product, not the mean. The 10,000-season simulation →
Chiefs 2026 — frequently asked
What is the Kansas City Chiefs win total for 2026?
The Kalshi KXNFLWINS-27 ladder implies an expected 12.2 wins for the Chiefs in 2026. Our 10,000-season simulation on our DAEPA power ratings projects 11.2 wins — a 1.0-win agreement with the market (LOW on our wins ladder).
Where do the Chiefs rank in our 2026 power ratings?
The Chiefs sit at a +1.2-point power rating — 12th of 32 — in the Playoff tier. That rating (offense +1.3, defense -0.3, special teams +0.3) is the input behind every Chiefs prediction-market edge we publish.
Can you trade Kansas City Chiefs games on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists Chiefs season win totals (KXNFLWINS), individual game winners (KXNFLGAME, which for 2026 opened months ahead of kickoff), plus division, conference and Super Bowl champion markets — available to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position that settles at $1 or $0.
What division are the Chiefs in for 2026?
The Chiefs play in the AFC West, alongside Broncos, Raiders, Chargers. Our model has them projected 1st in the AFC West on 11.2 expected wins.
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Every NFL team
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More Chiefs markets
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 8 predictions — early lines — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 6 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
This team in the first-quarter report
Record, point differential, the market price then and now, our simulation and the next three games, on one card. Read the report →