Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
Sunday, January 10, 2027 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 4 in Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 18 2026 — 62% to win, and the second AFC West meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LACDEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 57c or below (or Chargers at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
LAC
-0.4
DEN
+1.2
Chargers
38%
model win prob
Broncos
62%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LACDENhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 57c or below, or the Chargers at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Chargers and Broncos already played in Week 5, and now the Chargers make the return trip in Week 18. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: +1.2 against -0.4, plus home field, equals the Broncos by 4 (62%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Broncos grade +0.4 on that side of the ball (8th of 32) against a Chargers offense at -0.7 (22nd) — 1.0 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th) meets the Chargers defense (-0.1, 10th), a 0.7-point gap.
On the standings side, AFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 5, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC West race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.0 projected wins for the Broncos against 8.2 for the Chargers, favored in 9 and 9 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Chargers'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 27-21 in the Broncos' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2025: Broncos won 19-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Broncos here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LACDEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Broncos 62%, Chargers 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Broncos contracts a buy at 57c or below and Chargers contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chargers vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Chargers vs Broncos in Week 18?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 4 points, a 62% win probability over the Chargers. The Broncos rate 13th of 32 (+1.2) and the Chargers 17th (-0.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LACDEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 5. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Broncos by 4 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Chargers vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN10LACDEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 57c or below, or the Chargers at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Chargers?
Los Angeles Chargers visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, January 10, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 18, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Chargers this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.0 wins (favored in 9) and the Chargers at 8.2 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Chargers', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Broncos?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Broncos at 62% over the Chargers sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 5. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Chargers–Broncos, Week 5 →
More Week 18 matchups
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