Updated · market price
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 13, 2026): New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31 (OT) — NFL Week 1, 2026. Our pre-game model had the Lions by 7.5 (65% to win); the Lions won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Lions at 75c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31 (OT)Final / OT
Model call: HITOur pre-game model had the Lions by 7.5 (65% to win). The Lions won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Lions: +1c — we archived the Lions at 74c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 75c on Sep 12. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
New Orleans out-gained Detroit by a hundred yards, converted both fourth downs, scored on the last play of overtime and lost by one because the two-point pass fell incomplete. The line said Detroit by seven from open to close. The model said Detroit at 64.9%. Both were right about the winner and neither was close to the game.
Saints 30—Lions 31
Final / OT✓ Call hitThe derived grade holds — the model had Detroit at 64.9% and Detroit won. The published position is a different animal and it lost. Our engine priced New Orleans above the market, called it a 9.6-point gap, tiered it HIGH and published New Orleans at 23.5c; the contract closed at 25.5c, so the market came two cents our way before the game disagreed by a single point. A one-point overtime loss on a position taken at 23.5c is the closest thing to vindication a losing position gets, and it is still a loss, and the record will say so. The number worth keeping is the total. DraftKings opened 48.5 and closed 49.5 and the game produced sixty-one; we published no total position on it. That is now three of the first four games in this write-up where the largest mispricing on the board was in a market we had no position in. The spread never moved off seven in either direction, which is a market that was confident and, on the side, correct by exactly the wrong margin: Detroit won and did not cover.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread did not move. The total rose 1 to 49.5; the game landed on 61.
Q3
Jahmyr Gibbs scored from a yard out in the first and again eleven minutes into the third, and Jared Goff found Amon-Ra St. Brown from nineteen to make it 21-0. Gibbs carried twenty-nine times for 156. Detroit did not score another touchdown in regulation.
Q4
Shough went thirty-five of fifty-six for 410 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions and two fumbles, taking five sacks. Chris Olave caught ten for 182. The tying score was a nine-yard throw to Juwan Johnson with 1:07 on the clock, capping seventeen unanswered.
Overtime
Detroit won the toss and Goff found St. Brown from four with 5:04 left in the extra period. St. Brown finished with ten catches on fourteen targets for sixty-seven yards and both Detroit receiving scores — a target share that carried a low yards-per-catch and two touchdowns, which is what a red-zone offense looks like when the field shortens.
Overtime
New Orleans answered from eight yards with 1:34 remaining in overtime and went for two rather than extend it. The pass was incomplete. Detroit 31, New Orleans 30. Under the current overtime rules a tie was not on the table once Detroit had scored, so the decision was forced, not brave.
Reporting verified 2026-09-13. Further sources: ESPN box score — Saints at Lions · ESPN game page — Saints at Lions · ESPN — Week 1 highlights: best plays, moments, touchdowns
Detroit is missing both starting safeties, the cornerback it expected to start opposite D.J. Reed, and — as of this week — its starting center. New Orleans is missing its top rookie receiver and its longest-tenured pass rusher, with Alvin Kamara a game-time call. The board already likes the Saints side of the moneyline; the trenches explain some of why, in a game the ratings still clearly favor Detroit.
Lions edge · Saints offensive tackles
Hutchinson set a career high in sacks last season and enters this one fully past the fractured leg that ended the year before it. He faces a rookie left tackle in Banks and a third-year right tackle in Fuaga on a Saints line PFF grades as solid rather than dominant — and explicitly flags as needing a step forward from Fuaga. With Cam Jordan ruled out on the other side, this is the one pass-rush matchup in the game that runs clearly one way.
Source: Detroit Lions Podcast — Hutchinson's recovery and Goff's new coordinator
Lions interior line · Saints defensive front
Starting center Cade Mays is out for roughly two months with a wrist injury, which forces a first-week-only combination: right guard Tate Ratledge slides to center, with Ben Bartch and Christian Mahogany at guard. PFF dropped Detroit's line several spots specifically because of this, despite Penei Sewell posting a career-high grade last season. New Orleans counters with Chase Young and Carl Granderson on the edge but loses Cam Jordan to a hamstring for this game.
Source: Athlon Sports — Lions test new line combination after Mays injury
Saints secondary · Lions receivers and tight end
New Orleans finished last season with one of the league's best pass defenses, led by cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. It faces a Detroit passing game built around Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, who is back from a hip contusion and locked in as the starting tight end. This is genuine strength on strength, and neither side gets the edge on paper.
Lions secondary · Saints receivers
Detroit released cornerback Terrion Arnold in June after his arrest on kidnapping and armed-robbery charges, which he denies; veteran Rock Ya-Sin is the likely replacement. The bigger hole is behind him: both starting safeties, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, are on reserve/PUP and out for at least four games. New Orleans' ability to exploit it is thinner than it should be, though — top rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve and misses the opener.
Source: Heavy — Lions catch a break on Week 1 opponent's injury report
Lions run game · Saints run defense
Detroit ran the ball well all of last season, with Gibbs clearing 1,200 yards on five a carry and Montgomery scoring eight times as the closer. New Orleans gave up more than two thousand rushing yards last season, among the most in the league. Even with the reshuffled interior, this is the clearest statistical mismatch in the game.
Saints run game · Lions run defense
Kamara has been out since spraining his MCL in an August joint practice, and the Saints listed him Questionable on Friday after a full practice — his first of the week following two limited days. Coach Kellen Moore stopped short of clearing him. Detroit's run defense was middling by yardage last season, not a strength, so a healthy Kamara has a real path even in a game the ratings tilt toward Detroit.
Coaching
Saints coach Kellen Moore signed with Detroit as an undrafted free agent and spent three seasons as a Lions backup quarterback; Lions coach Dan Campbell was New Orleans' assistant head coach and tight ends coach from 2016 to 2020. Detroit also enters with its third offensive coordinator in three years — Drew Petzing, hired to replace John Morton after one season — calling plays for Jared Goff.
Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: NewOrleansSaints.com — Week 1 injury report vs Detroit · Heavy — Saints give Kamara his Week 1 status · PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings · Heavy — Lions catch a break on Week 1 opponent's injury report · FanDuel Research — Lions vs Saints Week 1 preview · CBS Sports — Terrion Arnold released, potential replacements · Athlon Sports — Lions test new line combination after Mays injury · Detroit Lions Podcast — Hutchinson's recovery and Goff's new coordinator · Fox Sports — Lions hire Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator · StatMuse — Lions rushing yards per game, 2025 · StatMuse — Lions rushing yards allowed, 2025
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
NO
-1.7
DET
+1.2
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Saints
35%
model win prob
Lions
65%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
26%
Madden 27
74%
Madden 27
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10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31 (OT) — the graded call is above.
The model does not think this one is close. The Lions rate 10th of 32 at +1.2, the Saints 27th at -1.7, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Lions by 7.5 — 69% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 1 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Saints need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.5 (11th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.8 (18th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-0.7, 21st) meets the Lions defense (-0.7, 17th), a 0.0-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.4 (12th of 32) to -0.2 (32nd).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Saints at 8.1 (favored in 8) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Saints'.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Lions' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2023: Lions won 33-28 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 69% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET contract implies 50% for the Lions against our 65% — a 14.9-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Lions as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 65% for the Lions. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Lions | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% 50c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 74% 74c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 50% 50c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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New Orleans Saints 30, Detroit Lions 31 (OT) — final, played Sunday, September 13, 2026; our pre-game model had the Lions by 7.5 (65% to win), and the Lions won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Lions by 7.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Saints. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
The 7.5-point line comes from a 2.9-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Saints still project at 35% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Saints defense (-0.8, 18th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Lions YES is quoted around 50c against our 65% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
New Orleans Saints visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Saints at 8.1 (favored in 8). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Saints', by model win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET. The Lions YES contract sits around 50c, which is an implied 50% — against our model's 65%. That is a 14.9pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Lions at 65% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Bears at PanthersBears −0.5
Buccaneers at BengalsBengals −2.5
Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsJaguars −7.5
Falcons at SteelersSteelers −2.5
Jets at TitansTitans −3
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
Packers at VikingsPackers −3
Commanders at EaglesEagles −6.5
Cowboys at Giantseven
Broncos at ChiefsChiefs −0.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
