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Home/NFL/Week 1/Saints vs Lions
Gridiron EdgeWeek 1 · 2026

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Updated · market price

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Quick Answer

This game has been played (Sunday, September 13, 2026). Our pre-game model had the Lions by 7.5 (65% to win) in New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions, NFL Week 1 2026, and Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET contract has settled — there is no live price and no position to take. The numbers on this page are the record of that call; a graded recap is added once the final score is verified.

Every NFL edge on the board →

Settled

Our pre-game model had the Lions by 7.5 (65% to win). A graded result is added once the final score is verified; Kalshi has settled the contract at $1 or $0.

Closing-line value on the Lions: +1c — we archived the Lions at 74c on Sep 7; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 75c on Sep 12. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board

Week 1 · 2026-09-13

1 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 17.6pp on Saints moneyline.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Saints moneylineModel 35% vs market 18% on NO.17.5c35%Attack5.3%

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

The trench read: Detroit's own secondary is a bigger problem than New Orleans' offense is a threat

Detroit is missing both starting safeties, the cornerback it expected to start opposite D.J. Reed, and — as of this week — its starting center. New Orleans is missing its top rookie receiver and its longest-tenured pass rusher, with Alvin Kamara a game-time call. The board already likes the Saints side of the moneyline; the trenches explain some of why, in a game the ratings still clearly favor Detroit.

Lions edge · Saints offensive tackles

Aidan Hutchinson vs Kelvin Banks Jr. and Taliese Fuaga

Edge: Lions

Hutchinson set a career high in sacks last season and enters this one fully past the fractured leg that ended the year before it. He faces a rookie left tackle in Banks and a third-year right tackle in Fuaga on a Saints line PFF grades as solid rather than dominant — and explicitly flags as needing a step forward from Fuaga. With Cam Jordan ruled out on the other side, this is the one pass-rush matchup in the game that runs clearly one way.

Hutchinson sacks, 2025
14.5 — career high
Saints offensive line, PFF preseason rank
16th of 32

Source: Detroit Lions Podcast — Hutchinson's recovery and Goff's new coordinator

Lions interior line · Saints defensive front

Detroit's interior line just lost its starting center

Close to even

Starting center Cade Mays is out for roughly two months with a wrist injury, which forces a first-week-only combination: right guard Tate Ratledge slides to center, with Ben Bartch and Christian Mahogany at guard. PFF dropped Detroit's line several spots specifically because of this, despite Penei Sewell posting a career-high grade last season. New Orleans counters with Chase Young and Carl Granderson on the edge but loses Cam Jordan to a hamstring for this game.

Mays
Out 8–10 weeks — wrist
Sewell PFF grade, 2025
95.1 — career high
Lions offensive line, PFF preseason rank
19th of 32

Source: Athlon Sports — Lions test new line combination after Mays injury

Saints secondary · Lions receivers and tight end

A top-five Saints pass defense against Detroit's receivers

Close to even

New Orleans finished last season with one of the league's best pass defenses, led by cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry. It faces a Detroit passing game built around Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta, who is back from a hip contusion and locked in as the starting tight end. This is genuine strength on strength, and neither side gets the edge on paper.

Saints pass defense, 2025 rank
4th
McKinstry PFF coverage grade, 2025
71.4
Lions offense, 2025 rank
2nd

Source: FanDuel Research — Lions vs Saints Week 1 preview

Lions secondary · Saints receivers

Detroit's secondary is missing both safeties and a starting corner

Edge: Saints

Detroit released cornerback Terrion Arnold in June after his arrest on kidnapping and armed-robbery charges, which he denies; veteran Rock Ya-Sin is the likely replacement. The bigger hole is behind him: both starting safeties, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, are on reserve/PUP and out for at least four games. New Orleans' ability to exploit it is thinner than it should be, though — top rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve and misses the opener.

Branch and Joseph
Reserve/PUP — out at least 4 games
Arnold
Released, June 2026
Tyson (NO WR)
Injured reserve

Source: Heavy — Lions catch a break on Week 1 opponent's injury report

Lions run game · Saints run defense

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery against a generous Saints run defense

Edge: Lions

Detroit ran the ball well all of last season, with Gibbs clearing 1,200 yards on five a carry and Montgomery scoring eight times as the closer. New Orleans gave up more than two thousand rushing yards last season, among the most in the league. Even with the reshuffled interior, this is the clearest statistical mismatch in the game.

Gibbs, 2025
1,223 rush yds · 5.0 YPC · 13 TD
Lions rushing yards per game, 2025
120.1
Saints rushing yards allowed, 2025
2,050

Source: StatMuse — Saints rushing yards allowed, 2025

Saints run game · Lions run defense

Alvin Kamara is the swing variable on the other side

Close to even

Kamara has been out since spraining his MCL in an August joint practice, and the Saints listed him Questionable on Friday after a full practice — his first of the week following two limited days. Coach Kellen Moore stopped short of clearing him. Detroit's run defense was middling by yardage last season, not a strength, so a healthy Kamara has a real path even in a game the ratings tilt toward Detroit.

Kamara, Week 1 designation
Questionable — knee (MCL)
Kamara practice, Wed / Thu / Fri
Limited / Limited / Full
Lions rushing yards allowed, 2025
1,947

Source: Heavy — Saints give Kamara his Week 1 status

Coaching

Kellen Moore and Dan Campbell, with a shared history on opposite sidelines

Close to even

Saints coach Kellen Moore signed with Detroit as an undrafted free agent and spent three seasons as a Lions backup quarterback; Lions coach Dan Campbell was New Orleans' assistant head coach and tight ends coach from 2016 to 2020. Detroit also enters with its third offensive coordinator in three years — Drew Petzing, hired to replace John Morton after one season — calling plays for Jared Goff.

Moore
Former Lions UDFA and backup QB
Campbell
Saints assistant HC / TEs coach, 2016–2020
Petzing
Detroit's 3rd offensive coordinator in 3 years

Source: NewOrleansSaints.com — Week 1 game preview

What this read does not know

  • Kamara's status moved after this read was drafted: he practiced in full on Friday, September 11, and remains Questionable rather than cleared. Reporting has him ahead of his original four-to-six-week timeline, but there is no snap-count expectation published either way.
  • No league-wide rank was confirmed for either team's 2025 rushing offense or defense beyond the raw yardage cited, so the run-game units carry yardage, not ranks. The draft's per-game figures for rushing yards allowed did not reconcile to a 17-game season, so season totals are printed instead.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams do not appear on any injury report. Their availability is an inference from absence, not a confirmed full-participant status.
  • No PFF grades were found for Detroit's reshuffled interior — Ratledge, Bartch, Mahogany — individually; the unit rank is the only sourced number for that group.
  • Our own prop model is under a publication block for pass-yards and receiving-yards legs this week — the passing and receiving sides of the same run do not reconcile. No projection-based passing or receiving call appears anywhere in this read for that reason.

Reporting verified 2026-09-11. Further sources: NewOrleansSaints.com — Week 1 injury report vs Detroit · Heavy — Saints give Kamara his Week 1 status · PFF — 2026 offensive line rankings · Heavy — Lions catch a break on Week 1 opponent's injury report · FanDuel Research — Lions vs Saints Week 1 preview · CBS Sports — Terrion Arnold released, potential replacements · Athlon Sports — Lions test new line combination after Mays injury · Detroit Lions Podcast — Hutchinson's recovery and Goff's new coordinator · Fox Sports — Lions hire Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator · StatMuse — Lions rushing yards per game, 2025 · StatMuse — Lions rushing yards allowed, 2025

PMP · WK 1 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 13
AWAY NO -2.3
vs DET -7.5
HOME DET +2.5
Model · DET 65% home win prob
Kalshi · DET 83¢ yes mid
Edge -17.6pp model − market
📍 Detroit, MI PASS — no edge

Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 1 card free, every game priced against our model.

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Saints

35%

model win prob

Lions

65%

model win prob

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →

26%

Madden 27

74%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Saints at Lions

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Saints at LionsSpreadLOCATIONBuy YES · Lions −2.5 →
0255075100%Lions −2.5Lions +14.5Lions +4.5Lions −1.5Lions −6.5Lions −27.5KALSHIPMP MODEL
Widest gap
🔒
at Lions −2.5
Market
80%
Kalshi · P(YES) at Lions −2.5
PMP Model
🔒
display-calibrated

We think the median sits somewhere else than the market does.

RungMarketModelGap
10 more rungsLions +14.5 → Lions +2.5 · outside our published band, market only
Lions +14.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +13.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +10.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +9.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +7.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +6.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +5.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +4.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +3.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +2.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions +1.5🔒outside range—NO →
Lions −0.5—🔒—not listed
Lions −1.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −2.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −3.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −4.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −5.5🔒——YES →
Lions −6.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −7.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −9.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −10.5🔒🔒🔒YES →
Lions −13.5🔒outside range—YES →
6 more rungsLions −14.5 → Lions −27.5 · outside our published band, market only
Lions −14.5🔒outside range—YES →
Lions −16.5🔒——YES →
Lions −17.5🔒——YES →
Lions −20.5🔒——YES →
Lions −23.5🔒——YES →
Lions −27.5🔒——YES →

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier
New Orleans Saints-2.325thBelow Avg
Detroit Lions+2.57thPlayoff

Season outlook

NODET
Average wins7.99.8
Make playoffs34%58%
Win division22%34%
Win Super Bowl1.3%5.0%

10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

Prop ladders in this game

All ladders →

Every Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.

Chris OlaveReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%5+ rec7+ rec8+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
54%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 5+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Tyler ShoughRush YdsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%10+ rush yds20+ rush yds30+ rush yds50+ rush ydsKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
62%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 10+ rush yds
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Juwan JohnsonReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%3+ rec4+ rec6+ rec7+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
63%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 3+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Jahmyr GibbsReceptionsONE STRIKE PRICED
0255075100%4+ recKALSHIBOOKS
Widest gap
—
one strike priced
Market
51%
Kalshi · P(YES) at 4+ rec
PMP Model
—
display-calibrated
Model pending

Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.

Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →

Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

Saints vs Lions: where the prop prices are

The market’s prices, not ours: each Kalshi strike beside the sportsbook consensus read at the same line, and where the cheaper price for each side actually is. A gap is a price difference, not a call — the Oracle calls above are the opinion.

Saints vs Lions: where the prop prices are — Kalshi mid vs sportsbook consensus per strike, widest gap first
PlayerPropKalshiConsensusGapBest price
Chris Olave7+ rec21.0¢46%-24.5¢over · Kalshi 27.4¢under · Novig 57.1¢
Tyler Shough250+ pass yds29.0¢47%-18.1¢over · Kalshi 32.5¢under · Novig 61.5¢
Jameson Williams60+ rec yds33.0¢50%-17.0¢over · Kalshi 37.6¢
Tyler Shough20+ rush yds32.0¢49%-16.5¢over · Kalshi 35.6¢under · ProphetX 54.1¢
Amon-Ra St. Brown80+ rec yds34.0¢49%-15.5¢over · Kalshi 40.7¢
Juwan Johnson4+ rec45.0¢59%-13.8¢over · Kalshi 49.8¢under · ProphetX 44.1¢
Travis Etienne Jr.15+ rec yds41.0¢51%-9.6¢over · Kalshi 48.7¢under · ProphetX 51.2¢
Jahmyr Gibbs4+ rec51.0¢57%-5.6¢over · Kalshi 53.8¢under · Novig 49¢

All 100 priced prop strikes for this game →+ 118 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced.

Why the model has the Lions by 7.5

The model does not think this one is close. The Lions rate 7th of 32 at +2.5, the Saints 25th at -2.3, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Lions by 7.5 — 65% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 1 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Saints need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Lions grade +0.7 on that side of the ball (6th of 32) against a Saints offense at -1.5 (27th) — 2.2 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Saints defense (-0.5, 13th), a 1.7-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Saints at 7.8 (favored in 7) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the Lions' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Saints'. Nothing on the Saints' schedule projects harder than this one.

Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Lions' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2023: Lions won 33-28 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Lions are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 65% on the Lions here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET contract implies 83% for the Lions against our 65% — a 17.6-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Lions as the value side.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Saints vs Lions on Kalshi

Kalshi event
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET
Market-implied (Lions)
83c · 83%
Our model (Lions)
65%
Model vs market
-17.6pp

This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game model number was 65% for the Lions. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

Where Saints vs Lions trades

3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

VenueLionsTrade
Kalshi83% 83cTrade on Kalshi →
Novig74% 74cOpen Novig →
Polymarketinternational book75% 75cOpen Polymarket →
Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract83% 83cOpen Robinhood →
Coinbasesame Kalshi contract83% 83cOpen Coinbase →
DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
Fanatics Marketsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

Saints vs Lions — frequently asked

Who did the model favor in Saints vs Lions before kickoff?

Before kickoff our power-rating model favored the Lions by 7.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Saints. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

What would it take for the Saints to win?

The 7.5-point line comes from a 4.8-point rating gap, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Saints still project at 35% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the unit matchup they win on paper. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

How do you take a position on Saints vs Lions?

The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Lions YES is quoted around 83c against our 65% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

When and where do the Lions host the Saints?

New Orleans Saints visit the Detroit Lions on Sunday, September 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 1, at Ford Field, Detroit, MI.

What does the model project for the Lions and Saints this season?

Across all 17 games the model projects the Lions at 9.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Saints at 7.8 (favored in 7). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Lions' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Saints', by model win probability.

What are the Kalshi odds for Saints vs Lions?

Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET. The Lions YES contract sits around 83c, which is an implied 83% — against our model's 65%. That is a 17.6pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

Could you trade Saints vs Lions on Kalshi?

This game has been played, so the Week 1 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Lions?

59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Lions at 65% over the Saints sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

Is Saints moneyline worth a position?

Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 18%, an edge of +17.6 points. Model 35% vs market 18% on NO. We rate it attack, sized at 5.3% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.

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More Week 1 matchups

Patriots at SeahawksSeahawks −2.5
49ers at RamsRams −4
Bears at PanthersBears −0.5
Buccaneers at BengalsBengals −2.5
Bills at TexansTexans −0.5
Ravens at ColtsColts −1.5
Browns at JaguarsJaguars −7.5
Falcons at SteelersSteelers −2.5
Jets at TitansTitans −3
Cardinals at ChargersChargers −5.5
Dolphins at Raiderseven
Packers at VikingsPackers −3
Commanders at EaglesEagles −6.5
Cowboys at Giantseven
Broncos at ChiefsChiefs −0.5

Full Week 1 board →Next: NFL Week 2 predictions →

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