New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Sunday, September 13, 2026 · Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Saints

36%

model win prob

Lions

64%

model win prob

Model line

Lions −4.5

Kalshi (Lions)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Lions — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New Orleans Saints-1.022ndAverage

Detroit Lions+1.28thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 1, the New Orleans Saints travel to face the Detroit Lions at Ford Field, Detroit, MI. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Lions 8th of 32 (Playoff tier, +1.2) and the Saints 22nd (Average tier, -1.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Lions by 4.5 — a 64% win probability for the Lions.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 64% (Lions) / 36% (Saints) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Saints vs Lions — frequently asked

Who is favored in Saints vs Lions in Week 1?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Lions by 4.5 points and gives them a 64% win probability over the Saints. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Saints vs Lions?

Home win probability 64% (Lions), away 36% (Saints). That comes from a power-rating differential of +2.2 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Lions rate 8th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Saints 22nd (Average tier).

Can you trade Saints vs Lions on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.