Updated · model ratings
Forked Thu 10/1 on Lamar Jackson (back, limited Wednesday); collapsed Fri 10/2 after he returned to full practice Thursday and was on the field in full again Friday.
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 11.5 (85% to win); the Ravens won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Ravens at 86c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 11.5 (85% to win). The Ravens won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Ravens: -1c — we archived the Ravens at 87c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 86c on Oct 4. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
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No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Jackson threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns in the first half, and Derrick Henry scored against his former team. Jackson was hurt on the snap before Tyler Loop’s career-long 64-yard field goal ended the half, and Tyler Huntley played the second half on a drizzly day. Tennessee scored 11 points after halftime, the last eight on Cam Ward’s touchdown pass to Wan’Dale Robinson and a two-point pass to Gunnar Helm with 1:12 left, but Malaki Starks recovered the onside kick. The Titans are 0-4.
Titans 18—Ravens 24
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. The stored probability had Baltimore at 84.6% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from an 11.5-point line — and the Ravens won. The model’s own read was Baltimore by 7.6, a 3.9-point MODERATE lean toward Tennessee, and the Titans lost by six: the lean was right. The ledger’s position took the Titans to win outright, and that is a different claim. 2026_04_TEN_BAL_moneyline is a MODERATE row on Tennessee, entered at 25.5c on Tuesday 2026-09-22; as stored it carries Baltimore at 82.4% against a Kalshi price of 85.5c, a 3.14-point edge to the Titans. DraftKings moved from Baltimore minus 8.5 to minus 11.5 over the week, the Titans contract closed at 14.5c for a CLV of minus 11c, and Tennessee lost, which the score grades a loss. The preview on this page said it published no position on this game line; the ledger row and the page disagree, and that is flagged below. Saturday’s article made one call here, and it lost: Cam Ward under 10 rushing yards, the NO at 49c, PLAY, HIGH. Ward ran four times for 27 yards with a long of 22 — the scramble risk the article named. The final player board held no PLAY row on this game; the one WATCH row that counts lost.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 6 to 41.5; the game landed on 42.
Q1
Ward’s flip to Tony Pollard went through Pollard’s arms on the Titans’ second snap and Trenton Simpson intercepted it. Henry powered through Kevin Winston Jr. for a five-yard touchdown on fourth-and-1. Tennessee answered with a 70-yard drive and Pollard’s three-yard run.
Q2
Jackson hit Zay Flowers from 19. Tennessee was stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 2 on a direct snap to Pollard, and Baltimore went 98 yards for Jackson’s three-yard touchdown to Mark Andrews. Jackson’s ankle rolled under a defender on a sack late in the half, and Loop made a career-long 64-yarder on the next play.
Q3
Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards. Jesse Minter said the Ravens played more conservatively in the second half because of the weather and the lead. Joey Slye’s 33-yarder at 6:52 was the only score of the quarter.
Q4
Baltimore drove to the Tennessee 22 and missed a field goal. The Titans went 70 yards in seven plays, Ward hitting Robinson from three with 1:12 left and Helm for the two-point conversion. Starks recovered the onside kick.
Reporting verified 2026-10-04. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Ravens beat Titans 24-18 but lose Lamar Jackson to ankle injury · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Baltimore listed Jackson as limited with a back injury on Wednesday, two reports disagreed about whether he was even on the field, and by Thursday he was a full participant; the club’s Friday update has him on the field in full again. So this is one line, not two — and the market sits beyond it, pricing a rout our ratings do not see. Underneath the quarterback question is a Baltimore offensive line about to start its fourth centre of the season, and a Tennessee team that arrives 0-3 having scored fewer points than all but two offenses in football.
Ravens quarterback · fork closed
This game opened the week as an Oracle Fork, and for a plain reason: on Wednesday nobody could say who was playing quarterback. Baltimore’s first Week 4 report listed Jackson as a limited participant with a back injury, Jesse Minter called it "something small", and a separate account had him off the field entirely while ESPN’s Jamison Hensley wrote that he "spoke like he was playing Sunday". Thursday settled it: Jackson returned to full participation, and the club’s Friday update has him on the field in full again. So the fork is closed and there is one line on this game. What is left is the gap between that line and the market, which is priced past us — the market is saying this is a rout regardless of who plays quarterback, and that is a stronger claim than our ratings make. Two things the market is weighting that three weeks of ratings data cannot yet: Tennessee’s offense has been the worst in football for three weeks, and Baltimore gets Jackson at full health behind a line that has been losing centres, not quarterbacks.
Titans interior rush · Ravens protection
Whoever plays quarterback for Baltimore has to take the snap from a rookie guard making his first start at centre, and this is the matchup most likely to decide the game. The Ravens lost both of their centres in Brazil — Jovaughn Gwyn was carted off with an ankle injury and Ethan Pocic went down with a knee — and Minter said on Monday that both "look like they’ll be a little bit long term". Baltimore had already lost Danny Pinter to a torn patellar tendon in camp and Tyler Linderbaum in free agency, so Olaivavega Ioane, the 14th overall pick and the season’s starting right guard, is the fourth man up. Tennessee’s counter is one of the most disruptive interior defenders in the league: Simmons had a career-high ten tackles with a sack and two tackles for loss against the Giants and sits on 44.5 career sacks. The hopeful note for Baltimore is that Jackson spent the injury timeout in Rio taking practice snaps from Ioane and told Minter, "I’ll make it work" — and that John Franklin-Myers (back) did not practise Wednesday, which if he sits would free the Ravens to double Simmons on most snaps. Baltimore also signed centre Andre James and guard Kyle Hergel to the practice squad on Wednesday, which is what a team does when it is not sure.
Source: Ravens Wire — Ravens need a plan to stop Titans’ Jeffery Simmons
Titans offense · Ravens defense
Tennessee is 0-3 and the offense is the reason: 12.3 points a game, 30th in the league, on the fewest snaps per game of any team. Ward is averaging 5.1 yards a passing attempt through three starts and ended the 12-7 loss at the Giants with an interception, and he said on Wednesday that he "didn’t play his best in critical situations" and has to attack that this week. The problem is what he walks into. Baltimore’s defense has not generated much pressure, but it leans on disguised coverages and varied blitz looks that have historically given inexperienced quarterbacks trouble with pre-snap identification — and Tennessee arrives with Tyjae Spears (ankle) questionable on the final injury report, Tony Pollard (foot) cleared with no designation after missing Wednesday’s practice, and guards Fernando Carmona Jr. and Jackson Slater on injured reserve. The counterweight, and it is a real one, is that this Baltimore defense gave up 31 points and 148 rushing yards to Dallas last week, and Kyle Hamilton said so publicly afterwards. This is a bad matchup for Tennessee. It is not a closed one.
Source: Baltimore Beatdown — Ravens Week 4 injury report (both teams, Wednesday)
Reporting verified 2026-10-03. Further sources: Baltimore Ravens — Hendrickson ruled out vs. Titans; Jackson and Flowers back at full practice Friday (2026-10-02) · CBS Sports — Ravens’ Lamar Jackson: back to full participation Thursday (2026-10-01) · NBC Sports — Ravens list Jackson as limited with back injury (2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Ravens got bad Lamar Jackson news ahead of Week 4 (Hensley: "spoke like he was playing Sunday") · Baltimore Beatdown / SB Nation — Ravens Week 4 injury report, both clubs (Wednesday 2026-09-30) · Yahoo Sports — Ravens Week 4 injury report: Ronnie Stanley returns to practice · Russell Street Report — Injury report: Ravens vs. Titans (Wednesday) · CBS Sports — NFL Week 4 injury report (Titans at Ravens section) · baltimoreravens.com — Gwyn and Pocic suffer longer-term injuries; Ioane poised to remain at centre · Yahoo Sports — Ravens moving rookie Vega Ioane from guard to centre · Ravens Wire — Ravens need a plan to stop Titans’ Jeffery Simmons · tennesseetitans.com — Game preview: Titans travel to Baltimore to face Ravens · Athlon Sports — Cam Ward about to face the Ravens behind a weakened offensive line · Yahoo Sports / The Spun — Cam Ward admits he has to play better · Sharp Football Analysis — Titans vs. Ravens Week 4 worksheet (team efficiency ranks) · Yahoo Sports — Winners and losers from the Ravens’ Week 3 win over the Cowboys · FOX Sports — QB Stock Market, Week 4 (Cam Ward 32nd, Lamar Jackson 4th)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
TEN
-4.9
BAL
+1.2
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Titans
15%
fair value (books)
Ravens
85%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
21%
Madden 27
79%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 — the graded call is above.
The model does not think this one is close. The Ravens rate 11th of 32 at +1.2, the Titans 32nd at -4.9, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Ravens by 7.5 — 70% to win. That is the 2nd-widest gap among the 16 games on the Week 4 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Titans need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Ravens offense grades +2.0 (10th of 32) against a Titans defense at -2.3 (26th) — 4.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.9, 31st) meets the Ravens defense (-1.1, 17th), a 1.8-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Titans at 4.5 (favored in 1) — 4.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Ravens' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Titans'. It is the softest spot on the Ravens' entire schedule.
The series is dead level: 5-5 across 10 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Ravens won 24-16 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Ravens are 2-2. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 10 Baltimore home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 66°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 70% Ravens number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04TENBAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 85% for the Ravens. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Ravens | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 85% 85c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game — international book | Informational |
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| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
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Tennessee Titans 18, Baltimore Ravens 24 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Ravens by 11.5 (85% to win), and the Ravens won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Ravens by 11.5 points, a 85% win probability over the Titans. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04TENBAL market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
The 7.5-point line comes from a 6.1-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Titans still project at 15% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Titans defense (-2.3, 26th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04TENBAL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Ravens at 83c or below, or the Titans at 13c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Tennessee Titans visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Ravens at 9.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Titans at 4.5 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Ravens' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Titans', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04TENBAL, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04TENBAL has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Ravens at 70% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 7.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 15% against a market price implying 14%, an edge of +1.4 points. Model 15% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 14% on TEN — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2
Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5
Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5
Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5
Cowboys at TexansModel: Texans −2.5
Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5
Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5
Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5
Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5
Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5
Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8
Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5
Lions at PanthersModel: even
Falcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
