Updated · market price
Monday, October 26, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
Final (Monday, October 26, 2026): Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Cowboys by 4.5 (65% to win); the Cowboys won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Cowboys at 67c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Cowboys by 4.5 (65% to win). The Cowboys won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Cowboys: 0c — we archived the Cowboys at 67c on Oct 19; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 67c on Oct 26. The market did not move on our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Philadelphia led 21-20 late in the third quarter on Monday night and did not score again. Prescott went 15 of 27 for 212 yards with two touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb and one to George Pickens, ran in the two-point try after Lamb’s second, and was not sacked; Williams carried 25 times for a career-high 155 yards, per the AP, and Dallas ran for 204. Tanner McKee, starting with Jalen Hurts on injured reserve, went 23 of 35 for 211 yards with a touchdown to Makai Lemon and an interception by DeMarvion Overshown that ended Philadelphia’s last real chance. DraftKings opened the Eagles as 3-point home favorites and closed them 4.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point move; Dallas won by 17, and 59 points finished over both the opening 48.5 and the closing 43.5.
Cowboys 38—Eagles 21
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Dallas at 65.5% (Philadelphia 34.5%): the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 4.5-point Cowboys line. Dallas won. The quarterback gate read ADJUSTED on Philadelphia, McKee for Hurts, so the model’s own read was capped at WATCH: it had Dallas by only 0.9, a 3.6-point lean toward the Eagles, and the Cowboys won by 17. The lean was wrong, and badly. It is a WATCH lean, graded apart and never folded into the record. The ledger holds no position of any kind on this game. The preview on this page said Philadelphia’s only path was the ground against the league’s worst run defense; the Eagles ran for 121 yards, Saquon Barkley 62 on seven carries, and it was Dallas that won the game on the ground. The final pre-kickoff player run carried no PLAY rows on this game. It carried 22 WATCH rows, graded apart as always and never folded into the record. Four are suppressed stats the board never displays (McKee over 174.5 and 199.5 passing yards, Pickens not to score, Williams to score) and they count in neither direction. The 18 visible rows went 6-12. Lamb under 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5 catches (five) and Ryan Flournoy under 4.5 and 5.5 catches (four) were right. Jake Ferguson was targeted once and caught nothing, so all seven of his overs lost; Williams over 9.5 and 14.5 receiving yards lost (no catches), Flournoy under 2.5 and 3.5 catches lost, and Prescott under 1.5 touchdown passes lost when he threw three.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 5 to 43.5; the game landed on 59.
Q1
Brandon Aubrey opened the scoring with a 55-yard field goal. Philadelphia went 75 yards in four plays and Barkley, back from a hamstring injury, ran in from the 8. Dallas answered with a nine-play, 82-yard drive that ended with Prescott’s 9-yard throw to Lamb.
Q2
A 13-play Philadelphia drive ended with Pierce’s 5-yard run early in the second quarter. Tyler Goodson returned the next kickoff 91 yards for a touchdown that was called back for holding, and Dallas went 81 yards in 14 plays anyway, Pickens finishing it from 21 in the back of the end zone. Aubrey added a 27-yarder on the last play of the half after an eight-play, 78-yard drive in 1:14.
Q3
Philadelphia opened the second half with 17 plays and 84 yards over 9:16, and McKee’s 4-yard throw to Lemon put the Eagles up 21-20. On the next drive Tariq Woolen returned an apparent Prescott fumble 73 yards for a touchdown, but replay ruled the ball an incomplete forward pass. Two plays later Prescott hit Lamb from 16 in the corner and ran in the two-point try himself.
Q4
Aubrey’s 24-yarder made it 31-21. Philadelphia’s next drive reached Dallas territory before Overshown, in his first game back from a Week 1 hamstring injury per the AP, intercepted McKee’s throw for Dallas Goedert at the Dallas 30. On their next possession the Eagles turned it over on downs at their own 16, after Quinnen Williams sacked McKee, and Javonte Williams scored from 2 with 2:21 left.
Reporting verified 2026-10-27. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Dak Prescott throws 3 TD passes, Javonte Williams runs for 155 yards as Cowboys beat Eagles 38-21
Two 2-4 teams on Monday night, and the Eagles are a different team than the one the ratings were built on — Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve with blood clots in both lungs and Tanner McKee is expected to start. Our line on this game is QB-adjusted and our lean is capped at WATCH; no position that depends on it publishes. The football: Philadelphia has rushed for fifty-seven yards in two games combined and now meets the one defense in the league that cannot stop the run.
Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture
Philadelphia and Hurts’s agent announced on Monday that he has deep vein thrombosis and blood clots in both lungs, that he cannot play contact sports while on blood thinners, and that he is expected to make a full recovery. He is on injured reserve. One account says he will likely miss the rest of the season; another states flatly that it is season-ending. Either way this is not a week-to-week question, which is why this game carries one QB-adjusted line rather than two — a confirmed-out starter is not an Oracle Fork. What it does mean is that Philadelphia’s power rating was built on a quarterback who is not playing, so the number on this page is adjusted, the lean is held at WATCH, and nothing that depends on the game line publishes. McKee started Week 6 and lost 25-14 to Carolina: 26 of 45 for 215 yards, a touchdown, a 77.5 rating, and two sacks on five under-center snaps, both on unblocked pressure. He also took 48 dropbacks, nearly four more than any other starter has averaged this season. His backup is Joe Milton III, signed off the Cowboys’ practice squad.
Eagles run offense · Cowboys run defense
With a backup quarterback taking 48 dropbacks a game, Philadelphia’s obvious plan is to stop doing that — and the opponent could not be better chosen. Dallas concedes 149.8 rushing yards a game, last in the league, is thirtieth in total yards and twenty-fifth in points allowed. The problem is that Philadelphia has not been able to run at all: fifty-seven rushing yards across its last two games combined, with an offense twenty-eighth in scoring and thirtieth in total yards. This is the game’s central question and it is genuinely open — the worst run defense in football against a run game that has disappeared. Whichever of those two facts is more real decides the game.
Source: Fox Sports — 2026 NFL defense rankings (through Week 6, 2026-10-20)
Eagles pass protection · Cowboys offense
Philadelphia is last in the league in success rate from under center at 15.2 percent against a league average of 49.5, and leads the league in the share of pass plays on which it allows unblocked pressure at 20.7 percent. That is a protection scheme problem rather than a personnel one, and it is where McKee’s first start was lost — both of his sacks on five under-center snaps came from unblocked rushers. On the other side Dallas is eighth in expected points per play against an Eagles pass defense twenty-fifth in expected points per pass and twenty-sixth in passing yards allowed, which should be the easiest matchup on the field for the visitors. The caveat is form: Prescott threw eight touchdowns against one interception in the first four games, then two against four in the last two.
Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: Philadelphia Inquirer — What we know (and don’t) about the Eagles entering Week 7 (2026-10-22) · Yahoo Sports — Eagles QB Jalen Hurts reportedly out for the 2026 season after being diagnosed with blood clots in the lungs · ESPN — Eagles’ Jalen Hurts expected to miss the season over blood clots · SI — Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 preview (2026-10-21) · Fox Sports — 2026 defense rankings, through Week 6 (2026-10-20) · CBS Sports — Week 7 quarterback preview, McKee’s dropback volume (2026-10-20) · NFL.com — Eagles’ Tanner McKee ready to make the most of a starting chance (about 2026-10-15) · Yahoo Sports — Report: Saquon Barkley expected to practice (2026-10-22, 1:41 p.m. UTC) · Pro Football Talk — Week 7 2026 power rankings, records (2026-10-20)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
DAL
-0.6
PHI
-1.6
This one's been played. Get the full Week 7 card free, every remaining game priced against the market.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Cowboys
65%
fair value (books)
Eagles
35%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
41%
Madden 27
59%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 — the graded call is above.
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Eagles rate -1.6 (23rd of 32), the Cowboys -0.6 (19th) — 1.0 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 47%/53%, and this rates as the 3rd-closest game of the 14 in Week 7. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge. One input in this line is not a rating: the Eagles are without their usual starting quarterback (Tanner McKee starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 2.5 points toward the Cowboys — already inside the number above.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Eagles at 6.6 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6) — 1.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Eagles' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Cowboys'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Cowboys offense grades +3.5 (3rd of 32) against a Eagles defense at -1.2 (18th) — 4.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Cowboys defense (-4.6, 32nd), a 3.8-point gap.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Cowboys at 53% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI contract implies 35% for the Eagles against a fair value (books) of 35% — a 0.0-point gap. No position on this game.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 35% for the Eagles. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Eagles | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 35% 35c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 33% 33c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 35% 35c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 35% 35c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
A live tile locked to Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
A live card locked to Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free to preview on your own page; publishing runs on an Enterprise license, and the credit line stays on.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Eagles, Week 7 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-eagles-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Dallas Cowboys 38, Philadelphia Eagles 21 — final, played Monday, October 26, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Cowboys by 4.5 (65% to win), and the Cowboys won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Cowboys by 4.5 points, a 65% win probability over the Eagles. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Because the Eagles (-1.6, 23rd) and Cowboys (-0.6, 19th) are only 1.0 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 35%/65%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Eagles YES is quoted around 35c against a fair value (books) of 35%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Dallas Cowboys visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday, October 26, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 7, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 6.6 wins (favored in 9) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Cowboys', by win probability.
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI. The Eagles YES contract sits around 35c, which is an implied 35% — against our books-anchored fair value of 35%. That is a 0.0pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Cowboys at 53% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 33%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 35% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 33% on PHI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 7 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Cowboys–Eagles, Week 12 →
Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
49ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2
Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5
Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Chiefs at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
