Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles
Updated · model ratings
Monday, October 26, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Eagles by 2.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Week 7 2026 — 58% to win, and a NFC East game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Eagles at 53c or below (or Cowboys at 37c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DAL
+1.4
PHI
+2.4
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Cowboys
42%
model win prob
Eagles
58%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
41%
Madden 27
59%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Eagles at 53c or below, or the Cowboys at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Cowboys at Eagles
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Eagles −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsEagles −10.5 → Eagles −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
NFC East math: Cowboys at Eagles
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles is a NFC East game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 12. The model has the Eagles by 2.5 (58%) off a +2.4 to +1.4 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC East, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.5 (32nd) — 3.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+4.1, 3rd) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 2.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Cowboys grade +0.7, 7th in the league, against +0.2 (24th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 12, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC East race.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.6 projected wins for the Eagles against 8.8 for the Cowboys, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Cowboys'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Eagles at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 58% / 42% — the tradable window is narrow: Eagles at 53c or below, Cowboys at 37c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cowboys vs Eagles on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI
- Market-implied (Eagles)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Eagles)
- 58%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Eagles at 53c or below, or the Cowboys at 37c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Cowboys vs Eagles trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Eagles | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Cowboys vs Eagles — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cowboys vs Eagles in Week 7?
Our power-rating model picks the Eagles by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Cowboys, for a projected score of Eagles 26, Cowboys 24 on a ratings-implied 50.3-point total. The Eagles rate 8th of 32 (+2.4) and the Cowboys 11th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 12. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Eagles by 2.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Eagles?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Eagles at 53c or below, or the Cowboys at 37c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Eagles host the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday, October 26, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 7, at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA.
What does the model project for the Eagles and Cowboys this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Eagles at 9.6 wins (favored in 11) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Eagles' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Cowboys', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Cowboys vs Eagles?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Eagles at 53c or below or the Cowboys at 37c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Cowboys vs Eagles on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT26DALPHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Eagles?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Eagles at 58% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 12. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Cowboys–Eagles, Week 12 →
More Week 7 matchups
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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