NFL Week 15 2026 Predictions & Picks
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi has not listed Week 15 game markets yet, so there is no price to grade a pick against. The model's strongest side of the 16 games is the Packers at 69% to win.
Every game below carries the model line, win probability, straight-up winner and projected score; picks light up the moment Kalshi opens the markets.
Calls by Benny Ricciardi and The 7 Oracles · DAEPA model
Thursday edge sheet: all 16 Week 15 games, our number vs Kalshi. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
- 49ers at Chargers — Model winner: Chargers (53%)
- Seahawks at Eagles — Model winner: Seahawks (52%)
- Bears at Bills — Model winner: Bills (65%)
- Bengals at Panthers — Model winner: Panthers (56%)
- Dolphins at Packers — Model winner: Packers (69%)
- Jaguars at Texans — Model winner: Texans (55%)
- Browns at Giants — Model winner: Giants (62%)
- Ravens at Steelers — Model winner: Steelers (53%)
- Saints at Buccaneers — Model winner: Buccaneers (63%)
- Colts at Titans — Model winner: Colts (52%)
- Falcons at Commanders — Model winner: Commanders (55%)
- Jets at Cardinals — Model winner: Cardinals (58%)
- Cowboys at Rams — Model winner: Rams (66%)
- Broncos at Raiders — Model winner: Broncos (64%)
- Lions at Vikings — Model winner: Lions (57%)
- Patriots at Chiefs — Model winner: Patriots (61%)
All 16 Week 15 games with our DAEPA model win probabilities, the Kalshi price, and our pick on every game. Tap any game for the full breakdown, the Kalshi line and the edge.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Week 15 straight-up picks
The model's winner in all 16 games. Kalshi has not priced this week yet, so favorites and upsets are labelled the moment the markets open.
- Chargers over 49ers53%—
- Seahawks over Eagles52%—
- Bills over Bears65%—
- Panthers over Bengals56%—
- Packers over Dolphins69%—
- Texans over Jaguars55%—
- Giants over Browns62%—
- Steelers over Ravens53%—
- Buccaneers over Saints63%—
- Colts over Titans52%—
- Commanders over Falcons55%—
- Cardinals over Jets58%—
- Rams over Cowboys66%—
- Broncos over Raiders64%—
- Lions over Vikings57%—
- Patriots over Chiefs61%—
Winner = the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability. Kalshi = the mid price of that side’s contract, in cents. An upset is a model winner priced under 50¢; that is a straight-up call, not the play — the play on each game is the edge side in the board above.
Week 15 projected scores
- 49ersatChargers24.3–25.149.4
- SeahawksatEagles22.1–21.043.1
- BearsatBills23.3–28.651.9
- BengalsatPanthers22.9–24.847.7
- DolphinsatPackers20.1–28.949.0
- JaguarsatTexans20.0–21.841.8
- BrownsatGiants18.8–22.341.1
- RavensatSteelers22.3–22.945.2
- SaintsatBuccaneers20.1–24.444.5
- ColtsatTitans23.3–22.245.5
- FalconsatCommanders23.5–25.348.8
- JetsatCardinals21.2–24.045.2
- CowboysatRams24.6–30.455.0
- BroncosatRaiders23.5–18.642.0
- LionsatVikings22.6–20.042.5
- PatriotsatChiefs25.4–22.047.4
Projected score = the model margin split around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings). The total is a derivation from the power ratings, not a stored engine number; the margin is the same one behind the model line above. One decimal, so a projection is never mistaken for a final score.
NFL Week 15 predictions — frequently asked
Who does the model pick in NFL Week 15 2026?
Kalshi hasn't listed Week 15 game markets yet, so there is no market price to grade a pick against. The board shows the DAEPA model line and win probability on all 16 games, and the picks light up the minute those markets open.
How are these NFL Week 15 predictions made?
Every game runs through DAEPA (Defense-Adjusted Expected Points Added), the play-by-play engine behind our PWR power ratings. It produces a neutral-field margin and a home win probability for each matchup, then the pick is wherever that probability and the Kalshi price disagree. Backtested on 3,266 games from 2013 to 2024, DAEPA picks the straight-up winner 59.6% of the time.
What does the edge on each game mean?
Edge is the model win probability minus the Kalshi price for the same side, in percentage points. A +8pp edge means the model has a team at 62% while the market prices its contract at 54¢. We only call a pick when the gap is 5 points or more; anything smaller sits inside the noise of both numbers, so the row shows no edge.
Who wins straight up in NFL Week 15 2026?
The model's straight-up winner in each of the 16 Week 15 games, with its win probability. Chargers over 49ers (53%); Seahawks over Eagles (52%); Bills over Bears (65%); Panthers over Bengals (56%); Packers over Dolphins (69%); Texans over Jaguars (55%); Giants over Browns (62%); Steelers over Ravens (53%); Buccaneers over Saints (63%); Colts over Titans (52%); Commanders over Falcons (55%); Cardinals over Jets (58%); Rams over Cowboys (66%); Broncos over Raiders (64%); Lions over Vikings (57%); Patriots over Chiefs (61%). The winner is the side with the higher DAEPA model win probability; an upset is a model winner priced under 50¢ on Kalshi. The straight-up winner and the play are different calls — the play is the side where the model and the price disagree by 5 points or more.
What are the projected scores for NFL Week 15?
Projected scores, winner first: Chargers 25.1, 49ers 24.3; Seahawks 22.1, Eagles 21.0; Bills 28.6, Bears 23.3; Panthers 24.8, Bengals 22.9; Packers 28.9, Dolphins 20.1; Texans 21.8, Jaguars 20.0; Giants 22.3, Browns 18.8; Steelers 22.9, Ravens 22.3; Buccaneers 24.4, Saints 20.1; Colts 23.3, Titans 22.2; Commanders 25.3, Falcons 23.5; Cardinals 24.0, Jets 21.2; Rams 30.4, Cowboys 24.6; Broncos 23.5, Raiders 18.6; Lions 22.6, Vikings 20.0; Patriots 25.4, Chiefs 22.0. Each score splits the model margin around a ratings-implied total (league baseline 44 points plus both offensive ratings, minus both defensive ratings) — the total is derived from the power ratings, not a stored engine number, which is why scores carry one decimal.
How often are the Week 15 picks updated?
Daily through kickoff. Kalshi prices are re-captured and the model reruns against them, so the Updated stamp under the title is the last time a number on this page actually moved; it is never a render clock. Power ratings refresh weekly once games are played.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.