2026 Season Edition · The 7 Oracles
NFL 2026: The Complete Market Guide
All 32 teams priced against the live market — win totals, playoff odds, MVP, Week 1, and a 153-player half-PPR draft board.
61 pages. Numbers current as of August 29, 2026. Every board in the book has a free live version on this site, linked from the page it appears on.
32
Team chapters
153
Players ranked
10K
Seasons simulated
61
Pages
Get the guide
The PDF is included with a Pro membership. Already a member? The button below downloads it. Not a member yet, and the two ways in are right underneath.
What's inside — 15 chapters
- 01
How to read this book in five minutes
The short version: where we agree with the market, where we do not, and which three things to read if you only have five minutes.
- 02
What a prediction market actually is
A contract that pays a dollar if something happens. Why the price is the probability, and why a win total is a ladder of yes/no questions, not an over/under.
- 03
The ten biggest disagreements between us and the market
The ten teams where our number and the market price are furthest apart, what would have to be true for us to be right, and how you would know we were wrong.
- 04
The 2026 Power Board — all 32, ranked
Every team by PWR — points per game above an average team on a neutral field — split into offense, defense and special teams.
- 05
Win totals: where we would take the other side
All 32 win-total ladders with the live market price beside our simulated probability, and the size of every gap.
- 06
Playoff odds against the market
Playoff, division, conference and Super Bowl probabilities from 10,000 simulated seasons, priced against the live contracts.
- 07
The MVP market
Every quarterback the market is pricing for MVP, our probability next to theirs, and the handful the market is sleeping on.
- 08
The 32 team chapters
Two pages per team: the rating, the schedule, the win distribution, the market disagreement, and the one thing that would change our mind.
- 09
The Draft Kit — 153 players ranked
A half-PPR board through ADP 180, with our projection, floor, ceiling and bye week beside where the room is actually taking each player.
- 10
Sleepers, busts and the ADP steals
The players our model and consensus ADP disagree about most, argued one at a time rather than listed.
- 11
Bye weeks and the injury-risk board
Every bye week by team, and which draftable players carry the highest chance of missing four or more games.
- 12
Week 1: all 16 games, priced
The opening slate with our win probability against the live market price on every game.
- 13
The tools that stay current after this book does not
A printed book is a snapshot. Every board in here has a live version on the site, free, and this chapter maps one to the other.
- 14
Plain-English glossary
Short on purpose. Every term the book uses, defined without math.
- 15
Appendix: for the people who want the math
How the model is built, what the backtest measured, and what we deliberately do not publish.
Two ways to get the guide
There is no email wall on this. Either you have a membership and the PDF is yours, or you buy the book outright on Kindle.
Included with Pro
$14.99 a month — the guide is free
A Pro membership includes the PDF plus every Pro tool on the site: the arb scanner, the mispricing scanner, Thee Oracle, the edge alerts, and the live version of every board printed in the book. Cancel any time.
Go Pro and download it →Buy it outright
Kindle edition — $9.99
The whole book, one payment, readable on any Kindle app. No membership, no account here, and no access to the live boards — if you want those, the membership is the better deal.
Coming to Kindle shortly
Free sample · Chapter 3
The ten biggest disagreements between us and the market
Every row below is a place where our number and the market's number are far enough apart that one of us is wrong. We are not going to pretend we know which one every time. What we can tell you is where the gap is, how big it is, and what would have to be true for us to be right. These are win-total contracts, so read each one as a question with a price attached rather than as a line.
| # | Team | The question | Market | Us | Gap | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | 4 or more wins | 54% | 91% | +37 | We are higher |
| 2 | Arizona Cardinals | 4 or more wins | 55% | 89% | +35 | We are higher |
| 3 | Cleveland Browns | 6 or more wins | 49% | 82% | +33 | We are higher |
| 4 | Los Angeles Chargers | 11 or more wins | 43% | 16% | -27 | We are lower |
| 5 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 or more wins | 52% | 77% | +26 | We are higher |
| 6 | Minnesota Vikings | 9 or more wins | 56% | 30% | -25 | We are lower |
| 7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 11 or more wins | 46% | 22% | -23 | We are lower |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 11 or more wins | 54% | 32% | -22 | We are lower |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10 or more wins | 52% | 30% | -22 | We are lower |
| 10 | Washington Commanders | 7 or more wins | 47% | 66% | +19 | We are higher |
Market and model probabilities as of August 29, 2026. A gap this size usually means one of two things: the market is slow to react to something we picked up, or we are missing something it already knows. The live board is at /nfl/win-totals.
Free sample · Chapter 4
The 2026 Power Board — the top 12
PWR is points per game above an average team on a neutral field, and it is the sum of our offense, defense and special-teams ratings. The book ranks all 32 and breaks each one into its three parts; here are the top 12.
Contender · 8.8 projected wins
Contender · 9.8 projected wins
Contender · 10 projected wins
Contender · 9.6 projected wins
Playoff · 8.7 projected wins
Playoff · 7 projected wins
Playoff · 11 projected wins
Playoff · 10.5 projected wins
Playoff · 8.6 projected wins
Playoff · 9.7 projected wins
Playoff · 9 projected wins
Playoff · 11 projected wins
The engine behind every number
DAEPA, graded on 3,266 games
Defense-Adjusted EPA adjusts a team's per-play efficiency for the quality of the opponents it faced. It was graded walk-forward over 3,266 regular-season games from 2013–2024 — the model never sees a future season when pricing a game, and no market price is among its inputs, so it is a genuinely independent second opinion rather than a repackaged line.
59.6%
Straight-up winners
0.236
Brier (a coin flip is 0.25)
0.664
Log loss
3,266
Games graded
The result worth knowing is not the headline number, it is the gradient: the model gets more accurate as its own stated confidence rises, monotonically, across every bucket.
| The model's stated edge | Games | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Toss-up (under 5%) | 870 | 51.6% |
| Lean (5–10%) | 797 | 57.2% |
| Solid (10–20%) | 1,114 | 62.5% |
| Strong (over 20%) | 485 | 71.5% |
Those figures grade DAEPA on its own. PWR is a different aggregation of the same engine and ranks teams differently — the full graded record, updated as the season runs, is free at /nfl/calibration.
Everything in the book, live and free
A printed book is a snapshot. These are the boards it was printed from, and they keep moving after it stops.
Win totals board
All 32 ladders, our probability against the live price
Power ratings
PWR for all 32, split into offense, defense and special teams
Weekly game edges
Every game where our line and the market disagree
Playoff & title odds
Playoff, division, conference and Super Bowl probabilities
MVP market
Our MVP probabilities against the live contracts
Player props
Our projection beside the live prop line
Fantasy draft kit
The sleepers and busts chapter, live and free
Predictions hub
Model win probability on every game, all 18 weeks
The graded record
How the model has actually scored, published in full
All 32 team hubs
The live version of every team chapter in the book
Full schedule
All 18 weeks with our line on every game
How DAEPA works
The methodology behind every number in the guide
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the NFL 2026 Market Guide?
It is a 61-page guide to the 2026 NFL season that puts our model next to the live prediction market on every team. Fifteen chapters: the ten biggest disagreements between us and the market, a power board of all 32 teams, win totals, playoff odds, the MVP market, a two-page chapter on every team, a 153-player half-PPR draft board, sleepers and busts, bye weeks, and all 16 Week 1 games priced.
How do I get the guide?
Two ways. A PredictionMarketsPicks Pro membership is $14.99 a month and includes the PDF at no extra cost, along with every Pro tool on the site. Or buy the Kindle edition outright on Amazon. The membership is the cheaper path if you want the guide plus the live boards it links to.
Is the guide free?
It is included free with a Pro membership rather than given away to everyone. The sample on this page — the table of contents, the ten biggest disagreements, and the top of the power board — is free and needs no account.
What is PWR and how should I read it?
PWR is points per game above an average team on a neutral field. PWR = Off PR + Def PR + ST PR. A team at +7 or better is elite, +4 is a contender, +1 is a playoff team, and anything under -5 is rebuilding. The guide prints all three components for every team so you can see whether a rating is carried by offense, defense or special teams.
How accurate is the model behind the guide?
The engine is DAEPA — Defense-Adjusted EPA. Graded over 3,266 regular-season games from 2013–2024, walk-forward and with no market price among its inputs, it picks winners 59.6% straight up. Its accuracy climbs with its own stated confidence: games it calls close land near a coin flip, and games where it claims a large edge hit 71.5%. The full graded record is public and free.
Do the numbers in the guide go stale?
Yes, and the book says so on its first page. Prices were live on August 29, 2026 and they move. What holds up far longer than an exact number is the direction of a disagreement. Every board in the guide has a live version on this site, free, and the book links to it from the page where it appears.
Which fantasy scoring format is the draft board?
Half-PPR, ranked through ADP 180, which comes to 153 draftable players. Each row carries our projection, a floor, a ceiling, the bye week and where the room is actually taking the player, so you can see the gap rather than take our word for it.
Are prediction markets the same as an oddsboard?
No. On an oddsboard you take a price the house sets and the house builds in its margin. On a prediction market you buy a contract that pays one dollar if something happens, you trade against other people, and you can sell the position before the season ends. The price is the probability — 70 cents means the market thinks it happens about seven times in ten. That is why this guide can put our number and the market number in the same column.
61 pages, 32 teams, 153 players
Included with a Pro membership at $14.99 a month, alongside every Pro tool and the live version of every board in the book.