New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Sunday, December 27, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 7 in New England Patriots vs New York Jets, NFL Week 16 2026 — 69% to win, and the second AFC East meeting of the year. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27NENYJ yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jets at 26c or below (or Patriots at 64c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.4
NYJ
-4.0
Patriots
69%
model win prob
Jets
31%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC27NENYJhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jets at 26c or below, or the Patriots at 64c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
The rematch: what the model sees the second time around
This is the second meeting. The Patriots and Jets already played in Week 6, and now the Patriots make the return trip in Week 16. Familiarity does not show up in a power rating, so the model prices it the same way it prices everything else: -4.0 against +5.4, plus home field, equals the Patriots by 7 (69%). Where a rematch does matter is the standings — a division sweep is worth more than the two wins suggest.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +3.9 (4th of 32) against a Jets defense at -2.2 (27th) — 6.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Jets offense (-3.1, 30th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 6th), a 4.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jets grade +1.3, 1st in the league, against +0.2 (27th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, AFC East games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 6, so a season sweep is on the table here on the AFC East race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15) — 4.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Jets' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Patriots'.
One team has owned this series: the Patriots are 39-9 in 48 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Patriots won 42-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Jets are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27NENYJ, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jets 31%, Patriots 69%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jets contracts a buy at 26c or below and Patriots contracts a buy at 64c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the AFC East hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Jets — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Jets in Week 16?
Our power-rating model favors the Patriots by 7 points, a 69% win probability over the Jets. The Jets rate 31st of 32 (-4.0) and the Patriots 2nd (+5.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC27NENYJ yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a AFC East result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two AFC East teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 6. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Patriots by 7 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Jets?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC27NENYJ on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jets at 26c or below, or the Patriots at 64c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jets host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the New York Jets on Sunday, December 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 16, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Jets and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jets at 6.5 wins (favored in 4) and the Patriots at 11.0 (favored in 15). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Jets' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Patriots?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Patriots at 69% over the Jets sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 6. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Patriots–Jets, Week 6 →
More Week 16 matchups
Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.