Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
Updated · model ratings
Monday, September 28, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 2 in Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 3 2026 — 56% to win, and Bears 10th of 32, Eagles 8th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bears at 51c or below (or Eagles at 39c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PHI
+2.4
CHI
+1.4
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Eagles
44%
model win prob
Bears
56%
model win prob
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52%
Madden 27
48%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bears at 51c or below, or the Eagles at 39c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bears at +1.4 (10th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Eagles at +2.4 (8th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bears by 2 and 56% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 0.3-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 0.3-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Bears against 9.6 for the Eagles, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles'. Nothing on the Eagles' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 8-5 in the Eagles' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Bears won 24-15 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bears at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 56% / 44% — the tradable window is narrow: Bears at 51c or below, Eagles at 39c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Eagles vs Bears on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI
- Market-implied (Bears)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Bears)
- 56%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Bears at 51c or below, or the Eagles at 39c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Eagles vs Bears trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bears | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Eagles vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Eagles vs Bears in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Bears by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Eagles. The Bears rate 10th of 32 (+1.4) and the Eagles 8th (+2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Eagles vs Bears?
Eagles offense (+0.4, 17th of 32) against Bears defense (-1.1, 19th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Eagles vs Bears?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 51c or below, or the Eagles at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Eagles?
Philadelphia Eagles visit the Chicago Bears on Monday, September 28, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 3, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Eagles this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Bears?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Bears at 51c or below or the Eagles at 39c or below, off a 2-point line.
Can you trade Eagles vs Bears on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Bears?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bears at 56% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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