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Home/NFL/Week 3/Eagles vs Bears
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27

Final. Bears' next game: Bears vs Seahawks, Week 8 →Upset: Bears closed +154 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · market price

Forked Tue 9/22 – Sat 9/26 on Caleb Williams; ruled OUT Sat 9/26. Keenum expected, Bagent available.

Monday, September 28, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL

Quick Answer

Final (Monday, September 28, 2026): Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Eagles by 3.5 (62% to win); the Bears won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Eagles at 65c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Eagles by 3.5 (62% to win). The Bears won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Eagles: +1c — we archived the Eagles at 64c on Sep 22; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 65c on Sep 28. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game is a pass until Chicago names its quarterback. Fourteen other calls inside.

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Bears moneylineModel 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 35% on CHI — kept as the pre-game record.35c38%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Bears 27, Eagles 7: third-string QB Case Keenum threw two touchdowns, ran for a third, and Chicago took the ball away three times

Chicago opened as a 1.5-point favorite, lost Caleb Williams to a hamstring and Tyson Bagent to the concussion protocol, and closed as a 3-point underdog with a 38-year-old who had not started a regular-season game in 1,009 days. Keenum went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdowns with no sacks and no turnovers, and was 11 of 11 against the blitz per ESPN. The Bears held Philadelphia to 248 yards, forced a fumble, intercepted two passes and kept the ball for 36:53. The 34 combined points stayed under a closing DraftKings total of 42.5.

Eagles 7—Bears 27

Final✗ Call missed

Two claims sit on this page and they point at different teams. First, the chip. It grades our stored pre-game probability, Philadelphia at 62.2%, and Chicago won by 20 — a miss. That row is v2.3-anchored-moneyline with the anchoring weight at zero, so the 3.5-point fair margin behind the 62% is the market’s own number restated. The model’s independent read on the same row was Philadelphia by 1.8, a lean of 1.7 points toward Chicago. That is the right direction, and it was nowhere near big enough: the QB gate had this game ADJUSTED for Keenum, the lean tiered NONE, and it did not publish. We are not claiming credit for a lean nobody was told to act on. Second, the position. The ledger held one game-line row: MODERATE, the Chicago moneyline contract, entered at 50c on Sep 16 — before Williams was ruled out. The book moved roughly 18 points on the quarterback news, so the row was voided before kickoff. Chicago won, so that contract would have paid $1. It is a VOID, not a win, and it does not count in either direction; the lesson is the entry timing, not the result. On the player board, one row published: Saquon Barkley under 14.5 receiving yards, HIGH. Barkley caught one pass for −2 yards, so it resolved our way. It was live on this page Monday afternoon while the page’s own copy called the game a pass — two calls on one page, which is the thing we have said we will not do. It is reported here as the one visible call and graded 1-0. Twenty-one WATCH rows went 8-13 on the box score and are graded apart, as always, never folded in: Rome Odunze and Luther Burden receptions overs hit, the Barkley rushing-under ladder went 2-4 as he ran for 82, and all three Cole Kmet overs lost — he was targeted once and caught nothing.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bears −1.5 → Eagles −3
Total
46.5 → 42.5
Moneyline
PHI −102 / CHI −118 → PHI −185 / CHI +154

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 4 to 42.5; the game landed on 34.

How it happened

Q1

Keenum converted fourth-and-1 on the opening drive and found Luther Burden for the first score

Chicago’s first series went 66 yards in 11 plays and 6:13. On fourth-and-1 at the Philadelphia 32, Keenum hit Sam Roush for 16, and three plays later Burden caught an eight-yard touchdown on third-and-2. On the Eagles’ next chance, Austin Booker forced a fumble out of Tank Bigsby’s hands at the Philadelphia 15 and Xavier Woods recovered.

After one
Bears 7, Eagles 0
Opening drive
11 plays · 66 yds · 6:13
Takeaway
Booker forced fumble, Woods recovery at PHI 15

ESPN — box score

Q2

A 95-yard Eagles drive ended in a Dalton interception while Hurts was being checked

Chicago got nothing from the fumble — Colston Loveland’s touchdown was reversed to the 1 on review and Keenum threw incomplete on fourth-and-goal from the 3. Philadelphia then drove from its own 3 to the Chicago 2 in 12 plays. Hurts left after a hard sideline hit by linebacker D’Marco Jackson and was checked for a concussion, per ESPN, and on third-and-goal Andy Dalton’s pass for Dontayvion Wicks was intercepted by Dillon Thieneman in the end zone. Hurts returned and scored on a one-yard run as the half ended, 10-7.

Halftime
Bears 10, Eagles 7
Eagles drive
12 plays · 95 yds · ended in a touchback INT
Chicago goal-line stand
Stopped on 4th-and-goal from the 3

ESPN — QB3 Case Keenum, Bears defense shock Eagles in MNF rout

Q3

Kalif Raymond for 41 made it two scores, and Hurts threw a pick on fourth down

Cairo Santos hit from 48 after a three-and-out. Two Eagles possessions later, Keenum found Raymond over the middle for a 41-yard touchdown on first down to make it 20-7. Philadelphia went for it on fourth-and-5 at the Chicago 46 and T.J. Edwards intercepted Hurts at the 42.

After three
Bears 20, Eagles 7
Raymond
6 rec · 90 yds · 1 TD on 7 targets
Eagles third down
2 of 9 · 0 of 2 on fourth down

ESPN — box score

Q4

An 8:04 drive, a neutral-zone flag on fourth-and-2, and Keenum’s first rushing TD since 2019

Chicago took over at its 42 and ran 13 plays over 8:04. Moro Ojomo’s neutral-zone infraction on fourth-and-2 at the Philadelphia 39 kept it alive, and Keenum finished it himself from a yard out for 27-7. Philadelphia turned it over on downs on its next series, and D’Andre Swift’s 15-yard run on fourth-and-1 let Chicago kneel it out.

Final
Bears 27, Eagles 7
Keenum
24 of 34 · 247 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · 0 sacks
Time of possession
CHI 36:53 · PHI 23:07

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game’s player rows. Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The Barkley PLAY row was seen live on this page Monday afternoon, while the page copy called the game a pass. Whether it was still on the Kickoff board at kickoff was not seen directly; after the game the board shows only the moneyline row. If it had come off before kickoff, it is not a record and the 1-0 is wrong.
  • ESPN’s game story says the Bears intercepted two Jalen Hurts passes; ESPN’s box score credits one interception to Hurts and one to Andy Dalton, thrown while Hurts was being evaluated. This page uses the box score.
  • DraftKings moved from Bears −1.5 to Eagles −3 and from Bears −118 to Bears +154 between open and close. ESPN’s core-odds record gives the two numbers, not when they moved. The Williams ruling (Sat 9/26) and the Keenum reports point the same way, but this recap does not claim that caused it.
  • total_centre is NULL on the stored fair-value row, so the house holds no model total for this game and graded nothing on the 34 points against DraftKings’ 42.5.
  • Every moment above comes from one outlet — ESPN’s box score and ESPN’s game story (Courtney Cronin and Tim McManus). The 1,009-days and 11-of-11-against-the-blitz figures are ESPN’s and are not independently confirmed.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price, and the prop outcomes are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-29. Further sources: ESPN — QB3 Case Keenum, Bears defense shock Eagles in MNF rout (Courtney Cronin and Tim McManus) · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

An Oracle Fork on Caleb Williams: Chicago has three quarterbacks, two of them hurt, and no decision until the weekend

Williams strained a hamstring scrambling late against Minnesota, his backup went into the concussion protocol two days later, and the only quarterback who practised on Wednesday was a 38-year-old who has not started a game since 2023. Rather than hold a number back, we publish both — one line with Williams, one without him — in the fork block above. Ben Johnson has declined to name a starter, and because Chicago plays Monday, the official designation does not arrive until Saturday.

Bears quarterback · the unresolved input

The fork: Caleb Williams, or whoever is standing

Close to even

Williams has a Grade 1 right hamstring strain from a fourth-quarter scramble against the Vikings. The MRI was, in Ben Johnson’s word, "somewhat encouraging"; the team called him week-to-week and Johnson said he did not expect him to practise this week while pointedly refusing to rule him out — "This guy’s a little bit different than the average human being… He gets back a lot faster than what people can anticipate." He did not practise Wednesday but was at the walkthrough and is described as actively involved. Behind him: Tyson Bagent entered the concussion protocol on Tuesday and was not in the building, and Case Keenum, the 38-year-old third option, took the preparation reps as the only quarterback practising. Rookie Miller Moss is on the practice squad and Chicago has said it has no plans to sign or elevate anyone. Johnson’s summary is the fork in one sentence: "We’ve got three guys that can play ball in this league… we’re at a point right now [where we’re] not sure who the starter’s going to be on Monday night."

Caleb Williams
Hamstring — ruled OUT Saturday 9/26
Tyson Bagent
Cleared the concussion protocol Sunday 9/27; no injury designation
Case Keenum
Expected starter per Jay Glazer (Fox, 9/27); last regular-season start December 2023

Source: chicagobears.com — Caleb Williams week-to-week with hamstring injury

Bears run offense · Eagles run defense

The league’s best rushing offense against Philadelphia’s 24th-ranked run defense

Edge: Bears

This is the matchup that matters most precisely because of the quarterback question: the less Chicago trusts whoever is throwing, the more this game runs through it. The Bears lead the league in rushing at 212.5 yards a game, with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combining for 316 yards through two weeks. Philadelphia allows 127.0 rushing yards a game, 24th, and gave up a 27-yard run on third-and-22 last week — after which Vic Fangio said only, "We gotta play it better, obviously." A quarterback with limited mobility behind a run game this productive is a coherent plan, not a fallback.

Bears rushing offense
212.5 yds/game — 1st in the NFL
Swift + Monangai, two games
316 combined rushing yards
Eagles run defense
127.0 yds/game allowed — 24th

Source: PhillyVoice — Eagles-Bears preview: five things to watch

Eagles pass offense · Bears secondary

Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson against a Philadelphia offense missing its tight end

Edge: Eagles

Chicago’s outside corners have allowed a combined 141.7 opposing passer rating through two games, with Stevenson also charged for four missed tackles — the same weakness that showed up in Week 1 and has not been fixed. Philadelphia arrives 2-0 but not intact: Dallas Goedert has an MCL sprain expected to cost him a few games, and Saquon Barkley is working through a stinger picked up against Tennessee, where he finished with four carries for nine yards. Jalen Hurts has been steady rather than spectacular — 26-of-37 for 264 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in the win over the Titans, which he sealed with a touchdown pass with fourteen seconds left.

Bears outside CBs
141.7 combined opposing passer rating
Dallas Goedert
MCL sprain — expected to miss a few games
Saquon Barkley
Stinger; 4 carries for 9 yards vs Tennessee

Source: Forbes — Week 3 fantasy injuries: Saquon Barkley, Malik Nabers and more

What this read does not know

  • The fork is the blind spot, published as two numbers instead of hidden. Chicago had not named a starter as of Friday: Williams and Bagent both sat out Thursday and Friday, and because this is a Monday game the official game-status designation does not arrive until Saturday. The fork collapses to one line then, and this page keeps a one-line history of having been forked.
  • The second line is "without Williams", not "with a named backup", and that is deliberate. Our quarterback adjustment is a single flat number applied to any starter who is not the quarterback the rating was built on. Bagent, Keenum and Moss all take exactly the same adjustment, so the second line would be identical whichever of them starts. Naming one of them would imply a precision the model does not have — particularly this week, when the most likely name has changed twice in three days.
  • That flat adjustment is probably too small here, and the market says so. The market has moved a long way on this news and is priced beyond our no-Williams line. A league-average backup adjustment does not distinguish a rookie, a career backup and a 38-year-old who last started in 2023. Read the gap between our two lines as the shape of the uncertainty, not as a measurement of these specific quarterbacks.
  • Update, Monday: Williams is out, and Case Keenum is expected to start. Chicago ruled Williams out on Saturday with the hamstring injury. Jay Glazer reported on Sunday that Keenum gets the start over Tyson Bagent, who cleared the concussion protocol that day, but the Bears’ own injury update still calls it a possible game-time decision. Neither is a starter-caliber quarterback in our model, so the line is the same whichever of them plays.
  • The game line carries no position. With the rating’s quarterback out, the gate reads ADJUSTED: our number is the book consensus, and a spread, moneyline or total position publishes only when both quarterback rooms are fully vetted. On its own the model sits closer to the Bears than the market does, but by less than any lean we publish.
  • Player contracts are back on the board. Our projection slate now carries Keenum as Chicago’s starter, so Bears and Eagles player contracts are priced again, and the Kickoff board below carries the ones that clear our gates. Keenum’s own numbers are a placeholder, league-median efficiency on Chicago’s team passing volume, because he has not thrown an NFL pass since 2023, so anything priced off him is marked WATCH.
  • Philadelphia’s skill players are managed, not ruled. Saquon Barkley (stinger) and DeVonta Smith (hamstring) both took part in Friday’s practice after limited or no Thursday work; Dallas Goedert (knee) did not practise Thursday. The Eagles’ designations also land Saturday.

Reporting verified 2026-09-28. Further sources: chicagobears.com — Caleb Williams week-to-week with hamstring injury · NBC Chicago — Ben Johnson says he’s not sure who the Bears’ quarterback will be Monday · Sports Illustrated — Bears injury updates from Wednesday’s practice · FOX Sports — Case Keenum practices for Bears amid Williams, Bagent uncertainty · Chicago Sun-Times — Tyson Bagent reports concussion symptoms · PhillyVoice — Eagles-Bears preview: five things to watch · Forbes — Week 3 fantasy injuries: Saquon Barkley and more · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Mon, Sep 28
AWAY PHI -1.6
vs PHI -3.5
HOME CHI +3.2
Fair (books) · CHI 38% home win prob
Kalshi · CHI 60¢ yes mid
Edge -21.7pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Chicago, IL PASS — no position

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Eagles

62%

fair value (books)

Bears

38%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

52%

Madden 27

48%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →

The Ladder — Eagles at Bears How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Eagles at BearsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Eagles at Bears Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Eagles–Bears spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Eagles vs Bears power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Philadelphia Eagles-1.623rdAverage
    Chicago Bears+3.22ndPlayoff

    Eagles and Bears season outlook

    PHICHI
    Average wins6.610.7
    Make playoffs13%73%
    Win division10%25%
    Win Super Bowl0.7%6.4%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Eagles vs Bears — player pages

    All players →

    Saquon Barkley

    RB

    DeVonta Smith

    WR

    D'Andre Swift

    RB

    Rome Odunze

    WR

    Colston Loveland

    TE

    Luther Burden III

    WR

    Caleb Williams

    QB

    Makai Lemon

    WR

    Kyle Monangai

    RB

    Dallas Goedert

    TE

    Tanner McKee

    Darius Cooper

    Hollywood Brown

    CHI Bears D/ST

    Kalif Raymond

    Roschon Johnson

    Sam Roush

    Zavion Thomas

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Monday night's number, and what would make it a position

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 — the graded call is above.

    Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bears at +3.2 (2nd of 32, Playoff tier) against the Eagles at -1.6 (23rd, Average tier), which after home field and the QB-out term comes out Eagles by 2 and 55% to win. One input in this line is not a rating: the Bears are without their usual starting quarterback (Case Keenum starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 9.1 points toward the Eagles — already inside the number above.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.5 (6th of 32) against a Eagles defense at -1.2 (18th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Eagles offense (-0.8, 24th) meets the Bears defense (+0.2, 7th), a 1.0-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bears at 10.7 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Eagles at 6.6 (favored in 9) — 4.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Bears' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Eagles'. Nothing on the Eagles' schedule projects harder than this one.

    Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 8-5 in the Eagles' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Bears won 24-15 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 Chicago home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 69°F and the median wind 4 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Eagles at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI contract implies 60% for the Bears against a fair value (books) of 38% — a 21.7-point gap. No position on this game.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Eagles vs Bears on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI
    Market-implied (Bears)
    60c · 60%
    Fair value — books (Bears)
    38%
    Fair value vs market
    -21.7pp

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Bears. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Eagles vs Bears trades Why the venues differ →

    2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBearsTrade
    Kalshi60% 60cTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig37% 37cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract60% 60cOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contract60% 60cOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Eagles vs Bears

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    Eagles vs Bears — frequently asked

    Who won Eagles vs Bears in Week 3?

    Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27 — final, played Monday, September 28, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Eagles by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Bears won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Eagles vs Bears before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Eagles by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Bears. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Eagles vs Bears?

    Bears offense (+2.5, 6th of 32) against Eagles defense (-1.2, 18th) — 3.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

    How do you take a position on Eagles vs Bears?

    The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Bears YES is quoted around 60c against a fair value (books) of 38%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Bears host the Eagles?

    Philadelphia Eagles visit the Chicago Bears on Monday, September 28, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 3, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.

    What does the model project for the Bears and Eagles this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 10.7 wins (favored in 14) and the Eagles at 6.6 (favored in 9). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Bears?

    Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI. The Bears YES contract sits around 60c, which is an implied 60% — against our books-anchored fair value of 38%. That is a 21.7pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

    Could you trade Eagles vs Bears on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Eagles?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Eagles at 55% over the Bears sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Bears moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 38% against a market price implying 35%, an edge of +2.8 points. Model 38% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 35% on CHI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Eagles: Week 4 vs RamsModel line →Bears: Week 4 vs JetsModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Titans at GiantsModel: evenBengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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    Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →

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