Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
Updated · market price
Monday, September 28, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 43% for the Bears in Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 3 2026, while our model has the Bears by 2 (56% to win) — a 13.6pp gap. A gap past our 12pp ceiling against a liquid price is more likely our error than the market's — no call.
Kickoff board
Week 3 · 2026-09-151 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 13.6pp on Bears moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
PHI
+2.4
CHI
+1.4
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 3 card free, every game priced against our model.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Eagles
44%
model win prob
Bears
56%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
52%
Madden 27
48%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Eagles at Bears
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Bears −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsBears −10.5 → Bears −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bears at +1.4 (10th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Eagles at +2.4 (8th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bears by 2 and 56% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 0.3-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.4 (17th of 32) against a Bears defense at -1.1 (19th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+2.0, 8th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.7, 4th), a 0.3-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.8 projected wins for the Bears against 9.6 for the Eagles, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles'. Nothing on the Eagles' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 8-5 in the Eagles' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Bears won 24-15 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bears at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI contract implies 43% for the Bears against our 56% — a 13.6-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Bears as the value side.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Eagles vs Bears on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI
- Market-implied (Bears)
- 43c · 43%
- Our model (Bears)
- 56%
- Model vs market
- +13.6pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 43c on the Bears is an implied 43% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 56%, a 13.6pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Eagles vs Bears trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bears | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 43% 43c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 43% 43c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 43% 43c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Eagles vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Eagles vs Bears in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Bears by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Eagles, for a projected score of Bears 24, Eagles 22 on a ratings-implied 45.8-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI market implies 43% for the Bears — a 13.6pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Eagles vs Bears?
Eagles offense (+0.4, 17th of 32) against Bears defense (-1.1, 19th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Eagles vs Bears?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Bears YES is quoted around 43c against our 56% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Eagles?
Philadelphia Eagles visit the Chicago Bears on Monday, September 28, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 3, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Eagles this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.8 wins (favored in 11) and the Eagles at 9.6 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Eagles vs Bears?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI. The Bears YES contract sits around 43c, which is an implied 43% — against our model's 56%. That is a 13.6pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Eagles vs Bears on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Bears?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bears at 56% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Bears moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 56% against a market price implying 43%, an edge of +13.6 points. Model 56% vs market 43% on CHI. We rate it attack, sized at 5.9% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 3 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 3 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale