Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
Monday, September 28, 2026 · Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 1.5 in Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears, NFL Week 3 2026 — 55% to win, and Bears 10th of 32, Eagles 7th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bears at 50c or below (or Eagles at 40c or below) is where the model would take a position.
PHI
+2.5
CHI
+1.5
Eagles
45%
model win prob
Bears
55%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bears at 50c or below, or the Eagles at 40c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bears at +1.5 (10th of 32, Average tier) against the Eagles at +2.5 (7th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bears by 1.5 and 55% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.5 (17th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.8, 5th), a 0.2-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Eagles offense grades +0.5 (17th of 32) against a Bears defense at -0.9 (19th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Bears offense (+1.9, 8th) meets the Eagles defense (+1.8, 5th), a 0.2-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.9 projected wins for the Bears against 9.7 for the Eagles, favored in 11 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles'. Nothing on the Eagles' schedule projects harder than this one.
Recent history, for context only: 13 regular-season meetings since 2002, 8-5 in the Eagles' favour, plus 4 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Bears won 24-15 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Bears at 55% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 55% / 45% — the tradable window is narrow: Bears at 50c or below, Eagles at 40c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Eagles vs Bears — frequently asked
Who is favored in Eagles vs Bears in Week 3?
Our power-rating model favors the Bears by 1.5 points, a 55% win probability over the Eagles. The Bears rate 10th of 32 (+1.5) and the Eagles 7th (+2.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Eagles vs Bears?
Eagles offense (+0.5, 17th of 32) against Bears defense (-0.9, 19th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Eagles vs Bears?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP28PHICHI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bears at 50c or below, or the Eagles at 40c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bears host the Eagles?
Philadelphia Eagles visit the Chicago Bears on Monday, September 28, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 3, at Soldier Field, Chicago, IL.
What does the model project for the Bears and Eagles this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bears at 8.9 wins (favored in 11) and the Eagles at 9.7 (favored in 11). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Bears' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Eagles', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 55% on a team like the Bears?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Bears at 55% over the Eagles sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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