Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 3.5 (62% to win); the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Seahawks at 66c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 3.5 (62% to win). The Seahawks won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Seahawks: -2c — we archived the Seahawks at 68c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 66c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Lock, starting with Sam Darnold out, hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 82 yards on the first drive and again from seven and twelve, and Seattle held Arizona to 151 total yards and 81 through the air. DraftKings opened Seattle by ten and closed it at three and a half; the team the market spent the week backing away from won by twenty-four. Jacoby Brissett threw for 95 yards on 28 attempts.
Seahawks 31—Cardinals 7
Final✓ Call hitThe chip grades the stored probability, which had Arizona at 37.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 3.5-point Seattle margin — and Seattle won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was Seattle by 5.8, the right team and a point and three-quarters stronger than the anchor; the game finished twenty-four apart. No position was published: the lean sat on the same side as the price, no weekly-edges ledger row exists for 2026_02_SEA_ARI, and the board published the read in points. The thing worth recording about the market on this page is the move. DraftKings opened Seattle minus 10 and closed minus 3.5, six and a half points toward Arizona, with the total falling from 44.5 to 40.5 — a move of the size that usually means a quarterback, and this recap does not know from its sources whether Darnold’s status was the whole of it. The verdict the code writes on that move is toward-loser: the line spent the week walking toward the team that lost by twenty-four. The Wednesday article did not touch the game. The player board had one visible call and it lost: Lock under 1.5 passing touchdowns at 36.5c, STRONG, on a 0.9 projection, and he threw three, all to Smith-Njigba. Two passing-yards strikes also sit in the ledger, a Lock under at 199.5 that lost on his 235 and a Brissett over at 224.5 that lost on his 95; neither counts. Three WATCH rows went none and three and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 4 to 40.5; the game landed on 38.
Q1
Two and a half minutes in, Lock found Smith-Njigba for an 82-yard touchdown and a 7-0 lead. Seattle would hold the ball for 36:33 on the day, run forty times for 162 yards, and outgain Arizona 381 to 151.
Q2
Brissett hit Trey McBride from two three seconds into the second quarter for 7-7, and nobody scored again before the half. It was Arizona’s only red-zone trip and its only touchdown; McBride caught eight of ten targets for 41 yards, and no other Cardinal had more than eighteen.
Q3
Lock hit Smith-Njigba from seven with 12:27 left in the third and Jason Myers added a 33-yarder for 17-7. Brissett would finish 17 of 28 for 95 yards with the touchdown and an interception, sacked twice; Arizona netted 81 passing yards and converted three of twelve third downs.
Q4
Lock’s third touchdown to Smith-Njigba, from twelve with 12:40 left, made it 24-7, and Barner scored from the one with 1:11 to play. Smith-Njigba finished with nine catches for 155 on eleven targets; Lock was 19 of 26 for 235 and three touchdowns without an interception. Emanuel Wilson carried 21 times for 92.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Seattle arrives in Glendale as the defending Super Bowl LX champion and the consensus No. 1 team in most national power rankings — without Sam Darnold, who was ruled out with a glute injury, putting Drew Lock under center for the second straight week. Arizona is 1-0 under first-year head coach Mike LaFleur with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback after Kyler Murray was released in March and signed with Minnesota. Seattle has won nine straight in the series, but Arizona's opener at the Chargers was the biggest upset of Week 1 and the Cardinals' defensive interior is trending the wrong way on the practice report.
Seahawks pass rush · Cardinals protection
Seattle got home three times on Drake Maye in the opener and pressured him on 38.1% of dropbacks while blitzing on only 31% — the same four-man-rush formula that produced a 41.1% combined pressure rate across Super Bowl LX and Week 1. Arizona's line is essentially new: Isaac Seumalo (three years, $31.5M), right tackle Elijah Wilkinson and center Hjalte Froholdt alongside LT Paris Johnson Jr., with right guard unsettled after second-round rookie Chase Bisontis went to IR in the preseason and Isaiah Adams missed the opener (Jon Gaines II started all 75 snaps in his place). Seumalo (shoulder) was a DNP Wednesday before returning to full participation Thursday; Adams (knee) was limited both days, so the right guard spot is still genuinely open.
Cardinals pass rush · Seahawks protection
Seattle returns all five 2025 starters — LT Charles Cross, LG Grey Zabel, C Jalen Sundell, RG Anthony Bradford, RT Abraham Lucas — the first time the franchise has done that since 2003, and all five played 100% of snaps in Week 1. It was not a clean night: Seattle committed 10 penalties for 98 yards including multiple false starts, and PFF charted pressures allowed by Sundell, Cross and Lucas, though Lock was sacked just once behind them. Arizona's edge group is a committee — Josh Sweat (12 sacks in 2025) played only 29 of 55 snaps in the opener, with Baron Browning and Zaven Collins at 27 apiece — and the Cardinals still sacked Justin Herbert three times. Sweat was a rest DNP Wednesday and full Thursday.
Source: Seahawks Wire — Seahawks return entire starting five OL for first time since 2003
Cardinals passing attack · Seahawks secondary
Arizona's Week 1 production came from the middle of the field: Trey McBride caught nine of 12 targets for 95 yards and the go-ahead touchdown, and slot receiver Kendrick Bourne caught eight passes for 75 yards, while Marvin Harrison Jr. was held to one catch for 33 yards on three targets. Seattle's corners in the opener were Devon Witherspoon (70 of 71 snaps) and Josh Jobe (70), with Nehemiah Pritchett at 53 (75%) as the nickel; Jobe sealed the game with an end-zone interception and Pritchett got the first pick of his career. Witherspoon lined up in five different alignments in 2025 — slot, outside, box and on the line — so which receiver he travels with is not something reporting has confirmed for this game. McBride (rest/back) and safety Budda Baker (rest) were Wednesday DNPs and returned to full participation Thursday.
Cardinals run game · Seahawks run defense
Arizona's backfield split in Week 1 leaned veteran: Tyler Allgeier took 17 carries for 61 yards (3.6 avg) on 41 snaps, while No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love took 11 for 41 with his first NFL touchdown on 32 snaps, still working back from an ankle sprain. Love is now completely off the Week 2 injury report. Seattle's run defense held New England's Rhamondre Stevenson to 2.8 yards on 18 carries out of light boxes, the same profile PFF flagged as the 2025 unit's signature. Both Arizona backs averaged under four yards per carry in the opener; LaFleur has said neither back is a 100% workload player.
Source: BYU Daily Universe — Allgeier leads Cardinals in Week 1
Seahawks run game · Cardinals run defense
Seattle replaced Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III — who left for Kansas City in free agency — with first-round rookie Jadarian Price (No. 32 overall), and Zach Charbonnet is on PUP after a January ACL tear. Price went 10 carries for 52 yards (5.2 avg) in his debut with George Holani adding eight carries for 29; Seattle rushed for 97 yards total on only 48 plays. Arizona's answer up front is thinning: starting nose tackle Roy Lopez went from limited Wednesday to a full DNP Thursday with a groin injury, and his backup Andrew Billings was added to the report Thursday with a knee issue, leaving 2025 first-rounder Walter Nolen III and Dante Stills as the load-bearing interior.
Quarterback play · both directions
Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed.** Seattle's Sam Darnold was ruled out for Week 2 with a glute injury suffered on the opening drive of the opener (a hip fracture was ruled out; Mike Macdonald said the team has no plans to add a quarterback), so Drew Lock starts. Lock went 16-of-22 for 187 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions and a 113.3 rating after entering cold, including the 45-yard fourth-and-1 touchdown to Jaxon Smith-Njigba that tied the game. **Arizona's quarterback is Jacoby Brissett, not Kyler Murray** — Murray was released March 11 and signed with Minnesota, where he is the Vikings' Week 1 starter. Brissett went 27-of-37 for 277 yards, one touchdown and no picks, plus six carries for 14 yards.
Coaching staffs · Week 2 availability
Mike Macdonald calls Seattle's defense himself with Aden Durde as coordinator; Brian Fleury, promoted after Klint Kubiak left to become the Raiders' head coach, called his first NFL game in Week 1. Arizona's staff is brand new outside of defense: Mike LaFleur (hired Feb. 2 from the Rams) with Nathaniel Hackett at offensive coordinator, while Nick Rallis was retained as defensive coordinator. On availability, Seattle's only two Thursday DNPs were Darnold (glute) and safety Ty Okada (hamstring); Nick Emmanwori was limited both days with an ankle/hip issue after July ankle surgery, Tory Horton (hamstring) was full both days and would play his first snap in 318 days, and Cooper Kupp (back) went from limited to full. Arizona had 12 players on Thursday's report, with Lopez the lone DNP.
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: PFF — Drake Maye's pressure problems resurface · Cards Wire — Cardinals Week 1 offensive snap counts · FTN Fantasy — 2026 Offensive Line Rankings · Seahawks Wire — Seahawks return entire starting five OL for first time since 2003 · Seahawks on SI — Week 1 snap counts · Cards Wire — Cardinals Week 1 defensive snap counts · Fantasy Footballers — Cardinals Week 1 news · Seattle Sports — Thursday injury report · BYU Daily Universe — Allgeier leads Cardinals in Week 1 · PFF — Week 1 statistical review, Patriots vs. Seahawks · Bo Brack (PHNX Cardinals) — Arizona first Week 2 injury report · Fantasy Footballers — Price efficient in Week 1 win
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
SEA
+4.1
ARI
-4.4
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Seahawks
62%
fair value (books)
Cardinals
38%
fair value (books)
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53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7 — the graded call is above.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 9. The model has the Seahawks by 6 (66%) off a -4.4 to +4.1 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +0.6 (14th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -3.8 (30th) — 4.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.6, 22nd) meets the Seahawks defense (+2.3, 2nd), a 2.9-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.1, 1st in the league, against -0.0 (29th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 9, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.0 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.1 (favored in 14) — 4.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 7th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 12th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the Seahawks' favour. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 44-22 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 66% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 38% for the Cardinals. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cardinals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 35% 35c | Open Novig → |
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| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
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45:52NFL Win Totals 2026: Jets, Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns & Raiders | Fade the Field Ep. 14Jul 28, 2026Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 3.5 (62% to win), and the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Seahawks by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Cardinals. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 9. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 6 on ratings and home field alone.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 36c or below, or the Seahawks at 60c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Seattle Seahawks visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.0 wins (favored in 2) and the Seahawks at 10.1 (favored in 14). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 12th-hardest on the Seahawks', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 66% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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They run it back in Week 9. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Seahawks–Cardinals, Week 9 →
Lions at BillsModel: Bills −4
Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4
Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5
Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6
Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4
Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7
Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5
Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5
Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5
Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
