Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of September 15, 2026, Kalshi implies 34% for the Cardinals in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 2 2026, while our market-anchored fair value has the Seahawks by 6 (65% to win) — a 1.0pp agreement. Inside our floor for a position — no position. The model's own line is Seahawks by 5.8 against a market line of Seahawks by 4.5 — a 1.3-point lean toward the Seahawks, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-15No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
SEA
+5.5
ARI
-3.7
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Seahawks
65%
model win prob
Cardinals
35%
model win prob
Market-anchored fair value: ARI 35% (+1.4pp) Combo Edge Builder →
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Seahawks at Cardinals
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. The gap changes sign near -2.9.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals +13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +5.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cardinals −3.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 more rungsCardinals −4.5 → Cardinals −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
NFC West math: Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 9. The model has the Seahawks by 6 (65%) off a -3.7 to +5.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 5.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 2.7-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against -0.1 (30th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 9, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16) — 4.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the Seahawks' favour. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 44-22 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 65% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI contract implies 34% for the Cardinals against our 35% — a 1.0-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Cardinals on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI
- Market-implied (Cardinals)
- 34c · 34%
- Our model (Cardinals)
- 35%
- Model vs market
- +1.0pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 34c on the Cardinals is an implied 34% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 35%, a 1.0pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Seahawks vs Cardinals trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cardinals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% 34c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 34% 34c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 34% 34c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 34% 34c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Seahawks vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Cardinals in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Seahawks by 6 points, a 65% win probability over the Cardinals, for a projected score of Seahawks 26, Cardinals 20 on a ratings-implied 46.6-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI market implies 34% for the Cardinals — a 1.0pp agreement with the model.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 9. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 6 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Cardinals?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Cardinals YES is quoted around 34c against our 35% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Cardinals?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI. The Cardinals YES contract sits around 34c, which is an implied 34% — against our model's 35%. That is a 1.0pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Seahawks vs Cardinals on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Seahawks?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 65% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 6-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Cardinals moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 35% against a market price implying 34%, an edge of +1.0 points. Model 35% vs market 34% on ARI. We pass — no position.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 2 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
The rematch
They run it back in Week 9. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Seahawks–Cardinals, Week 9 →
More Week 2 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale