Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, Kalshi implies 18% for the Cardinals in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Seahawks by 7 (68% to win) — a 13.5pp gap. Value side: the Cardinals.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-011 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 13.5pp on Cardinals moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
SEA
+5.5
ARI
-3.7
Seahawks
68%
model win prob
Cardinals
32%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
53%
Madden 27
47%
Madden 27
Preseason offer
Gridiron Edge Pro — 50% off your first payment
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$75 for the first year, or $7.50 for the first month. Code applies automatically. Ends Sep 10.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. How it works →
NFC West math: Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 9. The model has the Seahawks by 7 (68%) off a -3.7 to +5.5 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (30th) — 5.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 22nd) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.9, 2nd), a 2.7-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against -0.1 (30th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 9, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16) — 4.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the Seahawks' favour. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 44-22 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI contract implies 18% for the Cardinals against our 32% — a 13.5-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Cardinals as the value side at 18c.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Cardinals on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI
- Market-implied (Cardinals)
- 18c · 18%
- Our model (Cardinals)
- 32%
- Model vs market
- +13.5pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 18c on the Cardinals is an implied 18% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 32%, a 13.5pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Seahawks vs Cardinals trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Cardinals | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 18% 18c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 18% 18c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 18% 18c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Seahawks vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Cardinals in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 7 points, a 68% win probability over the Cardinals. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI market implies 18% for the Cardinals — a 13.5pp gap versus the model.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 9. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 7 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Cardinals?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Cardinals YES is quoted around 18c against our 32% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.5 wins (favored in 3) and the Seahawks at 10.9 (favored in 16). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Seahawks vs Cardinals?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI. The Cardinals YES contract sits around 18c, which is an implied 18% — against our model's 32%. That is a 13.5pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Seahawks vs Cardinals on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Seahawks?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 68% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Is Cardinals moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 32% against a market price implying 18%, an edge of +13.5 points. Model 32% vs market 18% on ARI. We rate it attack, sized at 4.1% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
Week 1 model card — all 16 games, our number vs the market. Sent Wednesday Sept 9. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
The rematch
They run it back in Week 9. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Seahawks–Cardinals, Week 9 →
More Week 2 matchups
Drafting this month? Same model, fantasy side.
The 2026 projection engine behind these numbers also runs a free fantasy draft desk inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor — the ranked board, the best available at your pick, sleepers and busts vs consensus ADP, and a who-do-I-draft call mid-draft. 8 tools, no account.
Open the fantasy draft assistant →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale