Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Seahawks by 6.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals, NFL Week 2 2026 — 68% to win, and a NFC West game. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Cardinals at 27c or below (or Seahawks at 63c or below) is where the model would take a position.
SEA
+5.2
ARI
-3.6
Seahawks
68%
model win prob
Cardinals
32%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARIhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Cardinals at 27c or below, or the Seahawks at 63c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
NFC West math: Seahawks at Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals is a NFC West game, the first of two meetings, with the rematch in Week 9. The model has the Seahawks by 6.5 (68%) off a -3.6 to +5.2 rating gap. Division games carry weight the model does not price: head-to-head is the first tiebreaker in the NFC West, so a win here is worth more in January than the standings column shows.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +2.3 (7th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -2.9 (29th) — 5.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.7, 23rd) meets the Seahawks defense (+1.8, 4th), a 2.4-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 2nd in the league, against -0.1 (30th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 9, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3 of 17) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16) — 4.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Cardinals' schedule and the 11th-hardest on the Seahawks'.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 30-17 in the Seahawks' favour. They last met in 2025: Seahawks won 44-22 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Cardinals are 0-4. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Cardinals 32%, Seahawks 68%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Cardinals contracts a buy at 27c or below and Seahawks contracts a buy at 63c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC West hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Seahawks vs Cardinals — frequently asked
Who is favored in Seahawks vs Cardinals in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Seahawks by 6.5 points, a 68% win probability over the Cardinals. The Cardinals rate 30th of 32 (-3.6) and the Seahawks 3rd (+5.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
How much does a NFC West result matter here?
Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker between two NFC West teams and division record is the next, so this result carries more than one game of standings weight. These two also meet in Week 9. Our model does not adjust for any of that — it prices the Seahawks by 6.5 on ratings and home field alone.
How do you take a position on Seahawks vs Cardinals?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20SEAARI on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Cardinals at 27c or below, or the Seahawks at 63c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Cardinals host the Seahawks?
Seattle Seahawks visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ.
What does the model project for the Cardinals and Seahawks this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Cardinals at 6.4 wins (favored in 3) and the Seahawks at 10.8 (favored in 16). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Cardinals' schedule and 11th-hardest on the Seahawks', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 68% on a team like the Seahawks?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Seahawks at 68% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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The rematch
They run it back in Week 9. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Seahawks–Cardinals, Week 9 →
More Week 2 matchups
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