New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs
Updated · model ratings
Monday, December 21, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Patriots by 3.5 in New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs, NFL Week 15 2026 — 61% to win, and a Kansas City December game that has run a median 39°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Chiefs at 34c or below (or Patriots at 56c or below) is where the model would take a position.
NE
+5.5
KC
-0.6
Kalshi hasn't priced this game yet. Get the full Week 15 card free and you'll have our number in hand the morning it opens.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Patriots
61%
model win prob
Chiefs
39%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
41%
Madden 27
59%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Chiefs at 34c or below, or the Patriots at 56c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Patriots at Chiefs
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chiefs −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chiefs −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chiefs −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chiefs −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsChiefs −6.5 → Chiefs −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Cold-weather math: Patriots at Chiefs in December
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 15 Kansas City home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 39°F with 9 mph of wind, and 53% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 2°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees -0.6 for the Chiefs, +5.5 for the Patriots, and lands on the Patriots by 3.5 (61%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Patriots offense grades +4.0 (4th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -0.8 (18th) — 4.9 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (-0.2, 20th) meets the Patriots defense (+1.3, 5th), a 1.5-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15) — 2.7 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 5th-hardest game on the Chiefs' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Patriots'.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Recent history, for context only: 11 regular-season meetings since 2002, 6-5 in the Chiefs' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2023: Chiefs won 27-17 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Chiefs are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 61% on the Patriots here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Chiefs 39%, Patriots 61%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Chiefs contracts a buy at 34c or below and Patriots contracts a buy at 56c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Patriots vs Chiefs on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC
- Market-implied (Chiefs)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Chiefs)
- 39%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Chiefs at 34c or below, or the Patriots at 56c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Patriots vs Chiefs trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Chiefs | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Patriots vs Chiefs — frequently asked
Who is favored in Patriots vs Chiefs in Week 15?
Our power-rating model picks the Patriots by 3.5 points, a 61% win probability over the Chiefs, for a projected score of Patriots 25, Chiefs 22 on a ratings-implied 47.4-point total. The Chiefs rate 20th of 32 (-0.6) and the Patriots 1st (+5.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Kansas City games in December?
Across 15 Kansas City home games in December since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 39°F with 9 mph wind, 53% of them at or below 40°F, and the coldest at 2°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date — and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 3.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Patriots vs Chiefs?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Chiefs at 34c or below, or the Patriots at 56c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Chiefs host the Patriots?
New England Patriots visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday, December 21, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 15, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO.
What does the model project for the Chiefs and Patriots this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Chiefs at 8.2 wins (favored in 9) and the Patriots at 10.9 (favored in 15). This game ranks 5th-hardest on the Chiefs' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Patriots', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Patriots vs Chiefs?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Chiefs at 34c or below or the Patriots at 56c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Patriots vs Chiefs on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 15 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC21NEKC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 15 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 15 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale