New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, December 21, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Patriots

64%

model win prob

Chiefs

36%

model win prob

Model line

Patriots −5

Kalshi (Chiefs)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Patriots — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

New England Patriots+3.32ndPlayoff

Kansas City Chiefs-4.031stBelow Avg

The prediction-market read

In Week 15, the New England Patriots travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Chiefs 31st of 32 (Below Avg tier, -4.0) and the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier, +3.3). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Patriots by 5 — a 64% win probability for the Patriots.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 36% (Chiefs) / 64% (Patriots) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Patriots vs Chiefs — frequently asked

Who is favored in Patriots vs Chiefs in Week 15?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Patriots by 5 points and gives them a 64% win probability over the Chiefs. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Patriots vs Chiefs?

Home win probability 36% (Chiefs), away 64% (Patriots). That comes from a power-rating differential of -7.4 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Chiefs rate 31st of 32 (Below Avg tier), the Patriots 2nd (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Patriots vs Chiefs on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.