Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 2 in Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 14 2026 — 56% to win, and Dolphins 28th of 32, Bears 10th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 39c or below (or Bears at 51c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+1.4
MIA
-3.3
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Bears
56%
model win prob
Dolphins
44%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
63%
Madden 27
37%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 39c or below, or the Bears at 51c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Bears at Dolphins
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dolphins −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dolphins −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dolphins −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dolphins −4.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 more rungsDolphins −6.5 → Dolphins −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Bears at Dolphins
The Bears travel to face the Dolphins in Week 14. Our power ratings put the Dolphins 28th of 32 at -3.3 (Below Avg tier) and the Bears 10th at +1.4 (Playoff tier) — a 4.7-point gap that home field narrows to a 2-point line on the Bears, 56% to win. It rates as the 15th-widest of the 15 games in Week 14.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +2.0 (8th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 4.7 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Bears defense (-1.1, 19th), a 0.3-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 2 of 17) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11) — 2.1 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 13th-hardest on the Bears'.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Dolphins won 35-32 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 13 Miami home games in December since 2015, the median temperature was 80°F and the median wind 9 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bears at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 44% / 56% — the tradable window is narrow: Dolphins at 39c or below, Bears at 51c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Dolphins on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA
- Market-implied (Dolphins)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Dolphins)
- 44%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Dolphins at 39c or below, or the Bears at 51c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Bears vs Dolphins trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Dolphins | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Bears vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bears vs Dolphins in Week 14?
Our power-rating model picks the Bears by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Dolphins, for a projected score of Bears 25, Dolphins 23 on a ratings-implied 48.3-point total. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.3) and the Bears 10th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Bears vs Dolphins?
Bears offense (+2.0, 8th of 32) against Dolphins defense (-2.7, 28th) — 4.7 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 39c or below, or the Bears at 51c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 2) and the Bears at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bears vs Dolphins?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Dolphins at 39c or below or the Bears at 51c or below, off a 2-point line.
Can you trade Bears vs Dolphins on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 14 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Bears?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bears at 56% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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