Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL

Bears

51%

model win prob

Dolphins

49%

model win prob

Model line

Bears −0.5

Kalshi (Dolphins)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bears — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Chicago Bears+0.910thAverage

Miami Dolphins-2.026thAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 14, the Chicago Bears travel to face the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Dolphins 26th of 32 (Average tier, -2.0) and the Bears 10th (Average tier, +0.9). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bears by 0.5 — a 51% win probability for the Bears.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 49% (Dolphins) / 51% (Bears) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Bears vs Dolphins — frequently asked

Who is favored in Bears vs Dolphins in Week 14?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bears by 0.5 points and gives them a 51% win probability over the Dolphins. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Bears vs Dolphins?

Home win probability 49% (Dolphins), away 51% (Bears). That comes from a power-rating differential of -2.9 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Dolphins rate 26th of 32 (Average tier), the Bears 10th (Average tier).

Can you trade Bears vs Dolphins on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.