Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins
Sunday, December 13, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Bears by 2 in Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins, NFL Week 14 2026 — 56% to win, and Dolphins 28th of 32, Bears 10th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Dolphins at 39c or below (or Bears at 51c or below) is where the model would take a position.
CHI
+1.5
MIA
-3.0
Bears
56%
model win prob
Dolphins
44%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIAhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Dolphins at 39c or below, or the Bears at 51c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
What the model sees in Bears at Dolphins
The Bears travel to face the Dolphins in Week 14. Our power ratings put the Dolphins 28th of 32 at -3.0 (Average tier) and the Bears 10th at +1.5 (Average tier) — a 4.5-point gap that home field narrows to a 2-point line on the Bears, 56% to win. It rates as the 12th-widest of the 15 games in Week 14.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +1.9 (8th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.5 (28th) — 4.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Bears defense (-0.9, 19th), a 0.3-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bears at 8.9 (favored in 11) — 2.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 11th-hardest game on the Dolphins' schedule and the 13th-hardest on the Bears'.
One team has owned this series: the Dolphins are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Dolphins won 35-32 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Dolphins are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 13 Miami home games in December since 2015, the median temperature was 80°F and the median wind 9 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Bears at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 44% / 56% — the tradable window is narrow: Dolphins at 39c or below, Bears at 51c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bears vs Dolphins — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bears vs Dolphins in Week 14?
Our power-rating model favors the Bears by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Dolphins. The Dolphins rate 28th of 32 (-3.0) and the Bears 10th (+1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Bears vs Dolphins?
Bears offense (+1.9, 8th of 32) against Dolphins defense (-2.5, 28th) — 4.4 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Bears vs Dolphins?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC13CHIMIA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Dolphins at 39c or below, or the Bears at 51c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Dolphins host the Bears?
Chicago Bears visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, December 13, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 14, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL.
What does the model project for the Dolphins and Bears this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Dolphins at 6.7 wins (favored in 4) and the Bears at 8.9 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Dolphins' schedule and 13th-hardest on the Bears', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Bears?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Bears at 56% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.