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2026 Midterm + 2028 Congressional Prediction Markets

Real-money positioning across two cycles. Ranked by where the volume actually is — 2028 presidential candidate ladder first (highest dollar volume on Kalshi), then 2026 House control (the closest binary), then the 2028 Senate field (33 states), governor races, and the next-Speaker contender ladder. All Kalshi, CFTC-regulated.

2028 Presidential Race — Candidate Leaderboard

18 candidates · ranked by 30d volume

By far the highest-volume political market on Kalshi today. Each row is a candidate-specific YES contract — price is the implied probability that candidate wins the 2028 presidential election. Long-tail names (single-digit prices) are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 6¢ contender is a 16% relative repricing.

18 candidates · sorted by 30-day trading volume · prices update every 5 min

House Control — 2026 Midterm Outcome

1 markets

The closest binary on this page — Nov 2026. Distributions for how many House seats each party wins after the midterms, plus the “will Republicans lose majority before January 2027” binary. These aggregate every individual House race into a single chamber-level probability.

2028 Trifecta — House × Senate × Presidency

8 sweep scenarios

The single highest-volume political market on Kalshi. Each contract is a triplet of who wins each chamber and the White House. Democratic Sweep and Republican Sweep dominate the book — split scenarios price how strong the down-ballot counterweight is.

Governor Races — 2028

10 states

Governorships shape 2030 redistricting and Senate-vacancy appointments. The market reads several of these as locked (NH, MO, MT) but Indiana and North Carolina have real two-way action.

Next Speaker of the House

3 contenders

Multi-binary contender ladder. The market fairly heavily favors a single name, but the long-tail prices are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 14¢ contender is a 7% relative repricing.

How to Read These Markets

Price = ProbabilityA 72¢ Yes price means the market implies a 72% probability the event happens. If it does, the contract pays $1.
Open Interest = SkinOpen interest is how many contracts are currently held. Higher OI = more traders with capital at risk and a tighter book.
Volume = ConvictionLifetime contracts traded. Far-out cycles have low 24h volume but real lifetime volume — that’s the operator’s read on consensus.

Congressional Markets — frequently asked

Which party is favored to win the House in 2026?

Kalshi’s House-control market prices this in real time — the board above shows the current implied probability for each party. Control comes down to a handful of toss-up districts, so the number moves with generic-ballot polling and candidate recruitment; read today’s price off the live board rather than a static poll.

How do Kalshi congressional control markets settle?

Each contract is a binary YES/NO on a specific outcome — for example “Republicans control the House after the 2026 election” — that settles at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Kalshi resolves them from the certified election result, so the live price is the market-implied probability of that outcome.

What are next-Speaker markets?

Next-Speaker markets are candidate-specific contracts on who will hold the Speaker’s gavel in the next Congress. Because the Speaker is elected by the majority caucus, they track both which party wins the House and the internal leadership fight — the contender ladder above lists each named candidate’s live price.

How accurate were prediction markets on Congress in 2024?

In 2024, prediction markets tracked the balance of power closely — the eventual Senate flip was priced from coin-flip to favorite well before most forecasters moved. Our full race-by-race audit is in the 2024 accuracy breakdown linked below.

Where can US traders take positions on Congress markets?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, so you can take a position on congressional-control and Speaker contracts directly — no sportsbook, just a contract that settles at $1 or $0. Every row above links straight to its live market.

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