Real-money positioning across two cycles. Ranked by where the volume actually is — 2028 presidential candidate ladder first (highest dollar volume on Kalshi), then 2026 House control (the closest binary), then the 2028 Senate field (33 states), governor races, and the next-Speaker contender ladder. All Kalshi, CFTC-regulated.
By far the highest-volume political market on Kalshi today. Each row is a candidate-specific YES contract — price is the implied probability that candidate wins the 2028 presidential election. Long-tail names (single-digit prices) are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 6¢ contender is a 16% relative repricing.
21 candidates · sorted by 30-day trading volume · prices update every 5 min
The single highest-volume political market on Kalshi. Each contract is a triplet of who wins each chamber and the White House. Democratic Sweep and Republican Sweep dominate the book — split scenarios price how strong the down-ballot counterweight is.
475k contracts traded · 284k open
Every state in the 2028 Senate cycle, sorted by lifetime trading volume. Each event has a Republican-wins and Democratic-wins binary. Look for tight spreads (40¢/60¢) — those are the races where the market hasn’t made up its mind.
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)
30k contracts traded · 16k open
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)
22k contracts traded · 9.4k open
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)
19k contracts traded · 8.1k open
Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028)
10k contracts traded · 5.0k open
Wisconsin Senate winner? (2028)
9.9k contracts traded · 4.0k open
Florida Senate winner? (2028)
5.4k contracts traded · 1.6k open
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)
3.5k contracts traded · 953 open
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)
3.0k contracts traded · 1.4k open
Nevada Senate winner? (2028)
2.9k contracts traded · 1.4k open
California Senate winner? (2028)
2.3k contracts traded · 1.7k open
Maryland Senate winner? (2028)
1.8k contracts traded · 567 open
Missouri Senate winner? (2028)
1.7k contracts traded · 1.1k open
Multi-binary contender ladder. The market fairly heavily favors a single name, but the long-tail prices are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 14¢ contender is a 7% relative repricing.
45k contracts traded · 15k open
Kalshi’s House-control market prices this in real time — the board above shows the current implied probability for each party. Control comes down to a handful of toss-up districts, so the number moves with generic-ballot polling and candidate recruitment; read today’s price off the live board rather than a static poll.
Each contract is a binary YES/NO on a specific outcome — for example “Republicans control the House after the 2026 election” — that settles at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Kalshi resolves them from the certified election result, so the live price is the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Next-Speaker markets are candidate-specific contracts on who will hold the Speaker’s gavel in the next Congress. Because the Speaker is elected by the majority caucus, they track both which party wins the House and the internal leadership fight — the contender ladder above lists each named candidate’s live price.
In 2024, prediction markets tracked the balance of power closely — the eventual Senate flip was priced from coin-flip to favorite well before most forecasters moved. Our full race-by-race audit is in the 2024 accuracy breakdown linked below.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, so you can take a position on congressional-control and Speaker contracts directly — no sportsbook, just a contract that settles at $1 or $0. Every row above links straight to its live market.
33 of the 100 Senate seats are on the 2028 ballot, the regular Class II cycle. Kalshi lists a Republican-wins and Democratic-wins contract for each state, so the sorted-by-volume list above doubles as a map of where the money sees a real contest — most states are lopsided, but a handful trade close to 50/50.
218 seats is the threshold for House control, and it's the same number baked into the Kalshi contract language for the 2026 midterm markets above. The board prices the probability each party clears that bar, updating in real time as redistricting fights, retirements, and recruitment news shift the generic-ballot picture.
Every 5 minutes — that's the refresh cycle for every price on this board, pulled directly from Kalshi's live order books. Unlike a poll that's days or weeks stale, these contracts reprice continuously as news breaks, so the number you see is the market's current implied probability, not a snapshot from last week's survey.
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