Real-money positioning across two cycles. Ranked by where the volume actually is — 2028 presidential candidate ladder first (highest dollar volume on Kalshi), then 2026 House control (the closest binary), then the 2028 Senate field (33 states), governor races, and the next-Speaker contender ladder. All Kalshi, CFTC-regulated.
By far the highest-volume political market on Kalshi today. Each row is a candidate-specific YES contract — price is the implied probability that candidate wins the 2028 presidential election. Long-tail names (single-digit prices) are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 6¢ contender is a 16% relative repricing.
20 candidates · sorted by 30-day trading volume · prices update every 5 min
The single highest-volume political market on Kalshi. Each contract is a triplet of who wins each chamber and the White House. Democratic Sweep and Republican Sweep dominate the book — split scenarios price how strong the down-ballot counterweight is.
259k contracts traded · 157k open
Every state in the 2028 Senate cycle, sorted by lifetime trading volume. Each event has a Republican-wins and Democratic-wins binary. Look for tight spreads (40¢/60¢) — those are the races where the market hasn’t made up its mind.
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)
14k contracts traded · 7.1k open
Wisconsin Senate winner? (2028)
6.4k contracts traded · 2.8k open
Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028)
5.7k contracts traded · 2.6k open
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)
1.8k contracts traded · 1.2k open
Multi-binary contender ladder. The market fairly heavily favors a single name, but the long-tail prices are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 14¢ contender is a 7% relative repricing.
29k contracts traded · 11k open
Get The 7 Oracles newsletter — political market alpha, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
