How many seats will Republicans win in the 2026 House election?
2274k contracts traded · 1584k open
Real-money positioning across two cycles. Ranked by where the volume actually is — 2028 presidential candidate ladder first (highest dollar volume on Kalshi), then 2026 House control (the closest binary), then the 2028 Senate field (33 states), governor races, and the next-Speaker contender ladder. All Kalshi, CFTC-regulated.
By far the highest-volume political market on Kalshi today. Each row is a candidate-specific YES contract — price is the implied probability that candidate wins the 2028 presidential election. Long-tail names (single-digit prices) are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 6¢ contender is a 16% relative repricing.
20 candidates · sorted by 30-day trading volume · prices update every 5 min
The closest binary on this page — Nov 2026. Distributions for how many House seats each party wins after the midterms, plus the “will Republicans lose majority before January 2027” binary. These aggregate every individual House race into a single chamber-level probability.
2274k contracts traded · 1584k open
922k contracts traded · 676k open
39k contracts traded · 19k open
The single highest-volume political market on Kalshi. Each contract is a triplet of who wins each chamber and the White House. Democratic Sweep and Republican Sweep dominate the book — split scenarios price how strong the down-ballot counterweight is.
327k contracts traded · 202k open
Every state in the 2028 Senate cycle, sorted by lifetime trading volume. Each event has a Republican-wins and Democratic-wins binary. Look for tight spreads (40¢/60¢) — those are the races where the market hasn’t made up its mind.
Ohio Senate winner? (2028)
16k contracts traded · 4.3k open
Arizona Senate winner? (2028)
15k contracts traded · 7.6k open
North Carolina Senate winner? (2028)
11k contracts traded · 5.0k open
South Carolina Senate winner? (2028)
7.7k contracts traded · 3.0k open
Wisconsin Senate winner? (2028)
7.5k contracts traded · 3.6k open
Pennsylvania Senate winner? (2028)
7.0k contracts traded · 3.9k open
Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)
6.6k contracts traded · 3.6k open
Vermont Senate winner? (2028)
6.5k contracts traded · 4.0k open
Florida Senate winner? (2028)
5.1k contracts traded · 1.6k open
Washington Senate winner? (2028)
3.7k contracts traded · 2.2k open
Alaska Senate winner? (2028)
2.9k contracts traded · 2.4k open
Louisiana Senate winner? (2028)
2.9k contracts traded · 290 open
Idaho Senate winner? (2028)
2.7k contracts traded · 868 open
North Dakota Senate winner? (2028)
2.6k contracts traded · 1.4k open
Utah Senate winner? (2028)
2.6k contracts traded · 1.3k open
Indiana Senate winner? (2028)
2.4k contracts traded · 1.0k open
Nevada Senate winner? (2028)
2.1k contracts traded · 1.3k open
Georgia Senate winner? (2028)
2.0k contracts traded · 1.2k open
New York Senate winner? (2028)
2.0k contracts traded · 1.4k open
California Senate winner? (2028)
1.9k contracts traded · 1.3k open
Maryland Senate winner? (2028)
1.7k contracts traded · 664 open
Iowa Senate winner? (2028)
1.6k contracts traded · 800 open
Kansas Senate winner? (2028)
1.5k contracts traded · 448 open
Missouri Senate winner? (2028)
1.5k contracts traded · 981 open
Oregon Senate winner? (2028)
1.3k contracts traded · 687 open
Arkansas Senate winner? (2028)
1.2k contracts traded · 918 open
New Hampshire Senate winner? (2028)
825 contracts traded · 87 open
South Dakota Senate winner? (2028)
682 contracts traded · 216 open
Oklahoma Senate winner? (2028)
608 contracts traded · 42 open
Illinois Senate winner? (2028)
315 contracts traded · 170 open
Colorado Senate winner? (2028)
300 contracts traded · 100 open
Alabama Senate winner? (2028)
258 contracts traded · 148 open
Connecticut Senate winner? (2028)
200 contracts traded · 169 open
Governorships shape 2030 redistricting and Senate-vacancy appointments. The market reads several of these as locked (NH, MO, MT) but Indiana and North Carolina have real two-way action.
New Hampshire Governor winner? (2028)
13k contracts traded · 6.4k open
West Virginia Governor winner? (2028)
8.6k contracts traded · 1.4k open
Missouri Governor winner? (2028)
7.8k contracts traded · 3.3k open
Vermont Governor winner? (2028)
5.9k contracts traded · 1.9k open
North Carolina Governor winner? (2028)
3.6k contracts traded · 986 open
Montana Governor winner? (2028)
3.4k contracts traded · 1.4k open
North Dakota Governor winner? (2028)
3.1k contracts traded · 648 open
Utah Governor winner? (2028)
2.7k contracts traded · 1.3k open
Indiana Governor winner? (2028)
1.9k contracts traded · 661 open
Delaware Governor winner? (2028)
91 contracts traded · 61 open
Multi-binary contender ladder. The market fairly heavily favors a single name, but the long-tail prices are where the operator alpha lives — every 1¢ move on a 14¢ contender is a 7% relative repricing.
30k contracts traded · 12k open
Kalshi’s House-control market prices this in real time — the board above shows the current implied probability for each party. Control comes down to a handful of toss-up districts, so the number moves with generic-ballot polling and candidate recruitment; read today’s price off the live board rather than a static poll.
Each contract is a binary YES/NO on a specific outcome — for example “Republicans control the House after the 2026 election” — that settles at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn’t. Kalshi resolves them from the certified election result, so the live price is the market-implied probability of that outcome.
Next-Speaker markets are candidate-specific contracts on who will hold the Speaker’s gavel in the next Congress. Because the Speaker is elected by the majority caucus, they track both which party wins the House and the internal leadership fight — the contender ladder above lists each named candidate’s live price.
In 2024, prediction markets tracked the balance of power closely — the eventual Senate flip was priced from coin-flip to favorite well before most forecasters moved. Our full race-by-race audit is in the 2024 accuracy breakdown linked below.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, so you can take a position on congressional-control and Speaker contracts directly — no sportsbook, just a contract that settles at $1 or $0. Every row above links straight to its live market.
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