Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Steelers by 2 in Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Week 5 2026 — 56% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Steelers, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Steelers at 51c or below (or Colts at 39c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
+0.0
PIT
-0.5
Kalshi hasn't priced this game yet. Get the full Week 5 card free and you'll have our number in hand the morning it opens.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Colts
44%
model win prob
Steelers
56%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
48%
Madden 27
52%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Steelers at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: model win probability against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Colts at Steelers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
| Steelers −9.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||
3 more rungsSteelers −10.5 → Steelers −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
| |||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Rest first, ratings second: Colts at Steelers
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Steelers come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 10 days' rest for the Steelers against 7 days' rest for the Colts. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Steelers by 2 (56%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Colts come in off the Commanders, the Steelers off the Browns. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +1.1 (11th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.4 (12th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 1.2-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.3 projected wins for the Steelers against 8.7 for the Colts, favored in 10 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Colts'.
One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 10-4 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 27-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Steelers at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 56% / 44% — the tradable window is narrow: Steelers at 51c or below, Colts at 39c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Steelers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT
- Market-implied (Steelers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Steelers)
- 56%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Steelers at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Colts vs Steelers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Steelers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Colts vs Steelers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Steelers in Week 5?
Our power-rating model picks the Steelers by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Colts, for a projected score of Steelers 24, Colts 22 on a ratings-implied 46.7-point total. The Steelers rate 17th of 32 (-0.5) and the Colts 15th (+0.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Steelers have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 2-point line or the 56% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Steelers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Steelers host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
What does the model project for the Steelers and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Colts at 8.7 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Steelers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Steelers at 51c or below or the Colts at 39c or below, off a 2-point line.
Can you trade Colts vs Steelers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 5 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Steelers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Steelers at 56% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 5 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
More Week 5 matchups
Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner, win probability and projected score for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale