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Home/NFL/Week 5/Colts vs Steelers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 5 · 2026

Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34

Final. Steelers' next game: Steelers vs Browns, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 11, 2026): Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — NFL Week 5, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Steelers by 2.5 (59% to win); the Steelers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Steelers at 60c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Steelers by 2.5 (59% to win). The Steelers won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Steelers: +3c — we archived the Steelers at 56c on Oct 4; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 60c on Oct 11. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 5 · 2026-10-12

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Colts to winModel 41% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 40% on IND — kept as the pre-game record.40c41%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Steelers 34, Colts 22: Jaylen Warren’s 80-yard catch and 50-yard run answered five Spencer Shrader field goals

Indianapolis pulled within a point three times and never got in front after the first quarter. Warren finished with 188 yards from scrimmage, 101 rushing and 87 receiving, and per the AP became the first player since Herschel Walker in 1986 with a 50-yard touchdown run and an 80-yard touchdown catch in the same game. Shrader made all five of his field goals, from 57, 56, 22, 40 and 28 yards, and the Colts scored one touchdown in three red-zone trips. DraftKings opened Pittsburgh −2.5 and closed −3, and 56 points went over both the opening 47.5 and the closing 42.5.

Colts 22—Steelers 34

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. Our stored probability had Pittsburgh at 58.8%, the market’s own number anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 2.5-point line, and Pittsburgh won by 12. The model’s own read was Pittsburgh by 2.2, a 0.3-point lean toward Indianapolis, tier NONE, and the Steelers won by 12: the lean was wrong, though at a third of a point it barely leaned at all. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no live position: a HIGH Steelers game winner was voided on 2026-10-07 and a total at the 38 rung was voided Sunday at 15:34 UTC, and neither counts in either direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried one PLAY row: Daniel Jones under 1.5 touchdown passes, MODERATE, YES at 35¢ (so the NO cost 65¢), closed 32.5¢. Jones threw for 267 yards and no touchdowns, the Colts’ only touchdown coming on a Tyler Warren run, so it won. Fourteen visible WATCH rows went 10-4 and are graded apart from the record. Jonathan Taylor’s under ladder from 59.5 to 99.5 rushing yards won all five rungs on 45 yards, Jones under 9.5 and 14.5 rushing yards won on four, and Taylor under 3.5 catches, Laquon Treadwell over 1.5 catches and Darnell Washington under 2.5 catches won. Taylor under 2.5 catches lost on three, and all three Jaylen Warren receiving unders lost: he caught six for 87. Four suppressed rows, two on Jones’ passing yards and two anytime-touchdown rows, count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Steelers −2.5 → Steelers −3
Total
47.5 → 42.5
To win
IND +114 / PIT −135 → IND +136 / PIT −162

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total fell 5 to 42.5; the game landed on 56.

How it happened

Q1

Shrader from 57, Rodgers to Warren for 80 on the next snap, Shrader from 56

Indianapolis opened the scoring with Shrader’s 57-yard field goal. On Pittsburgh’s first play after the touchback, Aaron Rodgers threw a short pass to Warren while taking a hit from Grover Stewart, and Warren went 80 yards. Shrader answered from 56. Per the AP it was Rodgers’ ninth career touchdown pass of 80 yards or more, tying Ben Roethlisberger’s NFL record.

Warren touchdown
1 play · 80 yds · 0:12
After one
Steelers 7, Colts 6

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Freiermuth from 1, then Tyler Warren on fourth-and-goal

Pittsburgh went 80 yards in 12 plays and 8:38, and Rodgers found Pat Freiermuth from a yard out for 14-6. The Colts answered with 11 plays and 71 yards: Treadwell’s 22-yard catch reached the 2, three runs gained one yard, and Tyler Warren scored on fourth-and-goal from the 1. Chris Boswell’s 48-yarder with 21 seconds left sent Pittsburgh in ahead by four.

Halftime
Steelers 17, Colts 13
Colts touchdown drive
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:34

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Shrader from 22, then Jaylen Warren for 50

Indianapolis opened the half with nine plays and 56 yards and stalled again, Shrader kicking from 22 for 17-16. A short kickoff was placed at the Pittsburgh 40, and five plays later Warren ran 50 yards for a touchdown. Shrader’s 40-yarder cut it to five.

Warren touchdown drive
5 plays · 60 yds · 3:17
After three
Steelers 24, Colts 19

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Warren converted fourth-and-1, Freiermuth scored from 17, and the Colts turned it over on downs twice

Shrader’s fifth field goal, from 28, made it 24-22 with 11:42 left. Pittsburgh answered with 64 yards in 10 plays, Warren gaining a yard on fourth-and-1 at the Indianapolis 22 before Rodgers hit Freiermuth for a 17-yard touchdown. Boswell added a 54-yarder, and both remaining Colts drives ended on downs.

Final
Steelers 34, Colts 22
Jaylen Warren
15 carries · 101 yds · 1 TD; 6 catches · 87 yds · 1 TD
Rodgers
22 of 31 · 235 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
Jones
24 of 44 · 267 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
Shrader
5 of 5 FG (57, 56, 22, 40, 28)
Colts red zone
1 TD in 3 trips

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (the Steelers game winner was voided on 2026-10-07 and the 38-rung total on Sunday at 15:34 UTC), and grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W5_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-12/prop-reconciliation-w05-sunday.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The time of Freiermuth’s 17-yard touchdown is left out: ESPN’s scoring summary has 6:35 left and the AP recap has 6:40.
  • The Herschel Walker comparison and the Roethlisberger record for 80-yard touchdown passes are the AP’s alone and were not checked against a second source.
  • Ben Skowronek (calf, per the AP; ESPN’s injury list says leg) and Roman Wilson (hand, per the AP; ESPN’s list says finger) left in the second quarter, and T.J. Watt was treated for a facial injury. An ESPN headline says Wilson is expected to miss multiple weeks; that is one source, and the other severities were not known when this was published.
  • The DraftKings total fell five points, from 47.5 to 42.5, and the game went over both. ESPN’s core-odds endpoint carries no timestamp for the open, and this recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game.

Reporting verified 2026-10-12. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jaylen Warren’s brilliance leads the Steelers past the Colts 34-22

The two worst passing offenses in the league, and the coverage that Aaron Rodgers least wants to see

Pittsburgh is 29th in passing EPA and Indianapolis is 30th, which makes this the single least efficient passing matchup on the Week 5 board. What makes it worth watching anyway is a specific collision: Rodgers already faces man coverage more than any quarterback in football and handles it badly, and Indianapolis plays more man than almost anyone. The counterweight is that when the Colts’ coverage breaks, it breaks for thirty yards.

Steelers pass offense · Colts coverage

Aaron Rodgers against man coverage, for the fifth week running

Edge: Colts

Rodgers has seen man coverage on 47.4% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate of any quarterback in the league, and he has not solved it: 47.3% completions, 6.0 yards an attempt, a 5.4% touchdown rate, all middling to poor. Indianapolis plays man on 29.9% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL. So the one thing that has troubled him is the one thing he is about to get, from a defense that will not have to change anything to give it to him. The broader picture is the same story: Rodgers throws a lot — 41.8 dropbacks a game, sixth — and completes only 37.7% of his attempts travelling ten or more yards downfield, a figure worse than every quarterback in the league except Malik Willis. Pittsburgh has passed 6.6% more often than situation would predict, fourth-most. They are committed to a thing they are not good at.

Rodgers vs man coverage
Faces it on 47.4% of dropbacks — most in the NFL · 47.3% completions (25th), 6.0 Y/A, 5.4% TD rate
Colts man-coverage rate
29.9% — 3rd-highest in the league
Rodgers downfield
37.7% completions on throws 10+ yards (20 of 53) — better than only Malik Willis

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Colts–Steelers Week 5 worksheet

Colts defense · Steelers pass offense

Indianapolis has given up more thirty-yard plays than anyone, and takes the ball away less than anyone

Edge: Steelers

The price Indianapolis pays for playing that much man is the biggest explosive-play leak in the league. They have allowed twelve plays of thirty or more yards, a league high, while generating a takeaway on 4.3% of opponent possessions, a league low. They allow 8.1 yards an attempt (28th) and 13.3 yards per completion (30th), and they are 31st in defensive yards per play at 6.2. That is a defense that wins a lot of individual snaps and loses the games on four of them. Against Rodgers, who is attempting plenty and connecting downfield rarely, the shape of this is reasonably clear: a lot of stalled drives punctuated by the one throw that beats the man coverage clean. Pittsburgh does not have to be efficient to win this game. They have to hit twice.

Colts explosive plays allowed
League-high 12 plays of 30+ yards; league-low 4.3% takeaway rate on opponent possessions
Colts pass defense
8.1 Y/A allowed (28th) · 13.3 yards per completion (30th) · 6.2 defensive yards per play (31st)
Steelers pass commitment
66.1% pass rate (3rd) and 6.6% above expectation (4th)

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Colts–Steelers Week 5 worksheet

Colts run offense · Steelers run defense

The one genuinely good unit on the field is the Indianapolis run game

Edge: Colts

Everything else about Indianapolis’s offense is bad — 4.5 yards a play, 30th, and one offensive play of thirty-plus yards all season, tied for the league low — but the running game is second in the league in rushing EPA at plus 11.80, and it is the reason they score 25.5 points a game despite the passing. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has not scored a rushing touchdown this season and runs on only 33.9% of plays, 30th. So the ground game runs one direction here, and the game-script implications matter more than usual: Pittsburgh keeps opponent play counts down better than anyone except one team (57.0 opponent plays a game, second in the league), which is exactly the thing an efficient Indianapolis run game would otherwise exploit over four quarters. Jonathan Taylor was a limited participant Wednesday, which is the detail that could unmake this entire unit.

Colts rushing EPA
+11.80 — 2nd in the league, against 25.86 NEGATIVE passing EPA (30th)
Steelers run game
No rushing touchdown this season · 33.9% rush rate (30th)
Steelers drive suppression
57.0 opponent plays per game — 2nd-fewest in the league

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Colts–Steelers Week 5 worksheet

What this read does not know

  • Jonathan Taylor was limited on Wednesday and the best unit in this game is his. The Colts’ run game is the second-most efficient in football by EPA and it is carrying an offense that is 30th in yards per play. A limited Wednesday is not a designation and Friday will say more, but if Taylor is reduced, our read on this game is built on a unit that is not on the field. The Colts’ Wednesday report also left the injury column blank for every player on it, so we do not even know what is wrong with him.
  • Nobody has a game-status designation yet, on either team. Today is Thursday; designations land Friday. Charvarius Ward and Keenan Allen were limited, Arden Key, Akeem Davis-Gaither, Jaylon Carlies, Ashton Dulin and Tanor Bortolini did not participate — and for Indianapolis none of those carries a stated injury on the club report.
  • Pittsburgh’s secondary is missing pieces and our pass-defense numbers predate the absences. The Steelers allow 68.4% completions (26th) and 7.9 yards a target (25th) as a four-week aggregate. Jalen Ramsey (wrist) and Jamel Dean (ankle) were both non-participants Wednesday, with Dean reported out multiple weeks, and Derrick Harmon is on injured reserve. Cameron Heyward was also down for rest. The aggregate is not a forecast of this personnel.
  • The man-coverage collision is the cleanest thing on this page and it is still two aggregates multiplied together. "Rodgers is bad against man" and "Indianapolis plays man" are both four-week team-level rates, and neither accounts for who Indianapolis will actually have on the field or for the fact that a defense leaking a league-high twelve thirty-yard plays may already be the version of man coverage that loses. We state the collision because it is real and specific; we do not claim to know which side of it wins.
  • Rico Dowdle’s toe is unresolved and it is the only way Pittsburgh changes shape. He was limited Wednesday after being ruled out in Week 4 and described as making progress. A Pittsburgh team with a functioning run game is a different opponent for a Colts defense that is 31st in yards per play; a Pittsburgh team without one keeps throwing into man coverage. We do not know which shows up.
  • Our market anchor on this game is on the modal book line and that is worth saying. The anchor and the consensus agree at Pittsburgh by two and a half, which is not true of every game on this slate — MIN–NO and HOU–TEN both carry anchors away from the modal number this week. This one does not need re-pulling for that reason, only for the ordinary reason that Friday moves lines.

Reporting verified 2026-10-08. Further sources: Sharp Football Analysis — Colts–Steelers Week 5 worksheet · steelers.com — Week 5 injury report vs the Colts (2026-10-07) · Sharp Football Analysis — Week 5 practice reports, all 32 teams (2026-10-07) · Sports Illustrated — Week 5 start ’em, sit ’em quarterbacks (2026-10-07) · Yahoo Sports — 2026 NFL Week 5 injury report (2026-10-06) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Indianapolis Colts · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Pittsburgh Steelers

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 5 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 11
AWAY IND -1.6
vs PIT -2.5
HOME PIT -0.1
Fair (books) · PIT 59% home win prob
Kalshi · PIT — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Pittsburgh, PA PASS — no position

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Colts

41%

fair value (books)

Steelers

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

48%

Madden 27

52%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Colts at Steelers How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Colts at SteelersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Colts at Steelers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Colts–Steelers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Colts vs Steelers power ratings (Week 5) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Indianapolis Colts-1.624thAverage
    Pittsburgh Steelers-0.117thAverage

    Colts and Steelers season outlook

    INDPIT
    Average wins6.79.9
    Make playoffs14%58%
    Win division10%23%
    Win Super Bowl0.9%2.6%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Colts vs Steelers — player pages

    All players →

    Jonathan Taylor

    RB

    Tyler Warren

    TE

    Jaylen Warren

    RB

    DK Metcalf

    WR

    Rico Dowdle

    RB

    Josh Downs

    WR

    Daniel Jones

    QB

    Aaron Rodgers

    QB

    Pat Freiermuth

    TE

    Keenan Allen

    Darnell Washington

    Germie Bernard

    Seth McGowan

    RB

    Laquon Treadwell

    Will Mallory

    PIT Steelers D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: A 3-day rest edge, sized: Colts at Steelers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — the graded call is above.

    The Steelers come in with 3 more days off — 10 days' rest for the Steelers against 7 days' rest for the Colts. We measured what that is worth across 3,120 games since 2013: about a tenth of a point per day, so roughly 0.3 points here. The market already charges for rest — closing lines move about 0.14 points per day of it — and rested teams have not beaten the close for it. The rest gap is real but small. What moves this game is the 1.5-point ratings gap, which has the Steelers by 2, 56% to win.

    The Colts come in off the Commanders, the Steelers off the Browns. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Steelers offense grades -0.2 (19th of 32) against a Colts defense at -1.8 (22nd) — 1.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Colts offense (-0.6, 21st) meets the Steelers defense (-0.4, 14th), a 0.1-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Steelers at 9.9 wins (favored in 10 of 17) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7) — 3.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Steelers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Colts'. It is the softest spot on the Steelers' entire schedule.

    One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 10-4 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 27-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Steelers at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Colts vs Steelers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT
    Market-implied (Steelers)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Steelers)
    59%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Steelers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Colts vs Steelers trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueSteelersTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig59% 59cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Colts vs Steelers — frequently asked

    Who won Colts vs Steelers in Week 5?

    Indianapolis Colts 22, Pittsburgh Steelers 34 — final, played Sunday, October 11, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Steelers by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Steelers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Colts vs Steelers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Steelers by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Colts. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Does the rest advantage change the model line?

    Barely. The Steelers have 3 more days off, and across 3,120 games since 2013 a rest day has been worth about a tenth of a point, so roughly 0.3 points here — not the point or two it is often credited with. Closing lines already charge about 0.14 points per rest day, and teams with the edge have not beaten the close for it (48.5% against the spread in the 10-days-vs-7 spot, n=301). The 2-point line and 59% win probability are driven by the ratings gap.

    How do you take a position on Colts vs Steelers?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 57c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Steelers host the Colts?

    Indianapolis Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.

    What does the model project for the Steelers and Colts this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 9.9 wins (favored in 10) and the Colts at 6.7 (favored in 7). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Colts', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Colts vs Steelers?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Colts vs Steelers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 5 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Steelers?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Steelers at 56% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Colts to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 41% against a market price implying 40%, an edge of +1.3 points. Model 41% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 40% on IND — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Colts: Week 6 vs TitansModel line →Steelers: Week 6 at BuccaneersModel line →

    More Week 5 matchups

    Buccaneers at CowboysModel: Cowboys −9Eagles at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −3Bengals at DolphinsModel: Bengals −2Raiders at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8Vikings at SaintsModel: Saints −0.5Browns at JetsModel: Jets −1Texans at TitansModel: Texans −1.5Giants at CommandersModel: Commanders −6.5Broncos at ChargersModel: Broncos −0.5Lions at CardinalsModel: Lions −1.5Bears at PackersModel: Packers −4.549ers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −4.5Ravens at FalconsModel: Falcons −4.5Bills at RamsModel: Rams −3

    Full Week 5 board →Next: NFL Week 6 predictions →

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