Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Steelers by 2 in Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Week 5 2026 — 56% to win, and a 3-day rest edge for the Steelers, which the model does not price. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Steelers at 51c or below (or Colts at 39c or below) is where the model would take a position.
IND
-0.1
PIT
-0.5
Colts
44%
model win prob
Steelers
56%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIThasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Steelers at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Rest first, ratings second: Colts at Steelers
Rest is the first thing worth pricing here. The Steelers come in with 3 more days off than the other side — 10 days' rest for the Steelers against 7 days' rest for the Colts. Our model does not adjust for rest. It prices the Steelers by 2 (56%) off ratings and home field alone, so if you believe that 3-day gap is worth something, that is an argument the number in front of you has not already counted.
The Colts come in off the Commanders, the Steelers off the Browns. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Colts offense grades +0.9 (14th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.5 (13th) — 1.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Colts defense (-1.7, 23rd), a 1.2-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Steelers against 8.6 for the Colts, favored in 10 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Colts'.
One team has owned this series: the Steelers are 10-4 in 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 5 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Steelers won 27-20 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Steelers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Steelers at 56% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 56% / 44% — the tradable window is narrow: Steelers at 51c or below, Colts at 39c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Colts vs Steelers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Colts vs Steelers in Week 5?
Our power-rating model favors the Steelers by 2 points, a 56% win probability over the Colts. The Steelers rate 19th of 32 (-0.5) and the Colts 15th (-0.1); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Does the rest advantage change the model line?
Not in our number. The Steelers have 3 more days off, but the model prices only team ratings and home field, so that edge is not baked into the 2-point line or the 56% win probability. If you think the rest gap is worth a point or two, that is an adjustment you make on top of this number, not inside it.
How do you take a position on Colts vs Steelers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT11INDPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 51c or below, or the Colts at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Steelers host the Colts?
Indianapolis Colts visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, October 11, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 5, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
What does the model project for the Steelers and Colts this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Colts at 8.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Colts', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 56% on a team like the Steelers?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Steelers at 56% over the Colts sit in that band, off a 2-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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