Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers
Updated · model ratings
Monday, January 4, 2027 · Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Packers by 3.5 in Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 17 2026 — 62% to win, and Packers 5th of 32, Texans 9th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 57c or below (or Texans at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+2.0
GB
+3.0
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Texans
38%
model win prob
Packers
62%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
43%
Madden 27
57%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 57c or below, or the Texans at 33c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Texans at Packers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Packers −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Packers −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Week 17 warning: what the Packers line does not know
Week 17 is where the standings start doing the talking, and the model does not know what either team will still be playing for. It prices the Packers by 3.5 (62%) from ratings alone — +3.0 for the Packers, +2.0 for the Texans. Late-season numbers are the least reliable of the year for exactly that reason: a team that has locked its seed and a team with nothing left both play differently than the ratings assume. Treat this as a starting point, then check what is actually at stake.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.7 projected wins for the Packers against 9.3 for the Texans, favored in 13 and 12 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 10th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Texans'. Nothing on the Texans' schedule projects harder than this one.
No unit matchup in this game separates by even a point on our scale. The Packers grade +3.3 on offense (5th of 32) and -0.5 on defense (14th); the Texans -1.3 (25th) and +2.6 (1st). Evenly-graded units on both sides of the ball is exactly the profile that produces a model line built from nothing but home field, though special teams does tilt to the Texans (+0.7, 8th).
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
One team has owned this series: the Packers are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Packers won 24-22 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Packers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 62%, Texans 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 57c or below and Texans contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Packers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB
- Market-implied (Packers)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Packers)
- 62%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Packers at 57c or below, or the Texans at 33c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Texans vs Packers trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Packers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Texans vs Packers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Packers in Week 17?
Our power-rating model picks the Packers by 3.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Texans, for a projected score of Packers 24, Texans 20 on a ratings-implied 44.0-point total. The Packers rate 5th of 32 (+3.0) and the Texans 9th (+2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Do Week 17 lines account for teams resting starters?
Ours does not. The model prices the Packers by 3.5 from 2026 power ratings and home field, with no knowledge of playoff seeding, elimination, or who is being held out. Late-season contracts often move on exactly that information, so treat this number as the ratings baseline and check what each team still has to play for before taking a position.
How do you take a position on Texans vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 57c or below, or the Texans at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Green Bay Packers on Monday, January 4, 2027 — a Monday game in NFL Week 17, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.7 wins (favored in 13) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12). This game ranks 10th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Packers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Packers at 57c or below or the Texans at 33c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Texans vs Packers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 17 game market is KXNFLGAME-27JAN04HOUGB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Packers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Packers at 62% over the Texans sit in that band, off a 3.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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