Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Giants by 5 in Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants, NFL Week 3 2026 — 65% to win, and Giants 22nd of 32, Titans 29th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Giants at 60c or below (or Titans at 30c or below) is where the model would take a position.
TEN
-3.7
NYG
-1.3
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Titans
35%
model win prob
Giants
65%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
39%
Madden 27
61%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Giants at 60c or below, or the Titans at 30c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Titans at Giants
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Giants −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Giants −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Titans at Giants
The Titans travel to face the Giants in Week 3. Our power ratings put the Giants 22nd of 32 at -1.3 (Average tier) and the Titans 29th at -3.7 (Below Avg tier) — a 2.4-point gap that home field widens to a 5-point line on the Giants, 65% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 3.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.8 (14th of 32) against a Titans defense at -1.5 (21st) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.8, 29th) meets the Giants defense (-2.2, 27th), a 0.6-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Titans +0.6 (12th of 32) to +0.1 (29th).
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.7 projected wins for the Giants against 6.7 for the Titans, favored in 6 and 3 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Titans'.
One team has owned this series: the Titans are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Giants won 21-20 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 New York home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 71°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 65% on the Giants here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Giants 65%, Titans 35%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Giants contracts a buy at 60c or below and Titans contracts a buy at 30c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Titans vs Giants on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG
- Market-implied (Giants)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Giants)
- 65%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Giants at 60c or below, or the Titans at 30c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Titans vs Giants trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Giants | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Titans vs Giants — frequently asked
Who is favored in Titans vs Giants in Week 3?
Our power-rating model picks the Giants by 5 points, a 65% win probability over the Titans, for a projected score of Giants 25, Titans 20 on a ratings-implied 45.7-point total. The Giants rate 22nd of 32 (-1.3) and the Titans 29th (-3.7); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Titans vs Giants?
Giants offense (+0.8, 14th of 32) against Titans defense (-1.5, 21st) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Titans (+0.6, 12th).
How do you take a position on Titans vs Giants?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 60c or below, or the Titans at 30c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Giants host the Titans?
Tennessee Titans visit the New York Giants on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
What does the model project for the Giants and Titans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 7.7 wins (favored in 6) and the Titans at 6.7 (favored in 3). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Titans', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Titans vs Giants?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Giants at 60c or below or the Titans at 30c or below, off a 5-point line.
Can you trade Titans vs Giants on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 3 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 65% on a team like the Giants?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Giants at 65% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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