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Home/NFL/Week 3/Titans vs Giants
Gridiron EdgeWeek 3 · 2026

Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12

Final. Giants' next game: Giants vs Eagles, Week 9 →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, September 27, 2026 · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, September 27, 2026): Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 — NFL Week 3, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Giants by 2.5 (59% to win); the Giants won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Giants at 56c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Giants by 2.5 (59% to win). The Giants won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Giants: -16c — we archived the Giants at 72c on Sep 21; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 56c on Sep 27. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Every game · Week 3

The best play from every Week 3 game, and where to get in

This game is a pass (QB-adjusted). Here is what we are watching instead.

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 3 · 2026-09-28

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Giants moneylineModel 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on NYG — kept as the pre-game record.56c59%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

New York 12, Tennessee 7: four Zvada field goals in a nor’easter, and Holland’s end-zone interception with 17 seconds left

In their first game without Jaxson Dart, the Giants ran it 33 times for 138 yards, did not turn it over, got four field goals from Dominic Zvada and needed every one of them. Tennessee was held off the board until Cam Ward found Wan’Dale Robinson from four with 5:35 left, then drove 70 yards to the New York 7 before Jevon Holland picked Ward off in the end zone — Holland’s third straight game with an interception. New York may have lost Brian Burns to a right knee injury in the fourth quarter; Chimere Dike fumbled the opening kickoff; Jeffery Simmons had seven tackles in the first half alone.

Titans 7—Giants 12

Final✓ Call hit

The chip grades the stored probability, which had the Giants at 58.8% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from a 2.5-point line — and the Giants won, so it reads a hit. The model’s own read was the Giants by 0.2, a 2.3-point lean toward Tennessee at WATCH, and the QB gate on this row read ADJUSTED, Jameis Winston for Dart: the board publishes no moneyline position off a corrected rating and Saturday’s article called the game a Pass for that reason. New York won by five and covered, so the model’s lean toward the Titans was wrong; nothing traded on it. The ledger does carry one row here and it is the largest edge on any Week 3 game row: 2026_03_TEN_NYG_total, a MODERATE under at the 34.5 rung (ticker KXNFLTOTAL-26SEP27TENNYG-35), the model pricing the over at 49.5% against a Kalshi price of 61c, an 11.5-point edge to the under, the NO side costing 38.5c on Thursday 2026-09-24 (17:04 UTC) with the YES at 61.5c, and the YES closing 60.5c for a one-cent CLV in our favour. The game produced nineteen points, fifteen and a half under the rung. DraftKings agreed with the direction and not the size: its total fell eight points from 45.5 to 37.5, the largest total move of the day, and the game landed eighteen and a half under even that. The player board’s one visible call also cleared — NYG Cam Skattebo under 69.5 rushing yards, HIGH, the YES at 35.5c so the NO cost 64.5c, the YES closing 36.5c, CLV minus 1c — and he ran for 60 on 20 carries. The article had named Skattebo at two or more catches as the closest look, sitting on WATCH; he caught three, and that row is graded apart with the rest of the WATCH rows — twenty-one of them, 14-6, with Devin Singletary (inactive) ungraded.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Giants −3 → Giants −2.5
Total
45.5 → 37.5
Moneyline
TEN +145 / NYG −175 → TEN +114 / NYG −135

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 8 to 37.5; the game landed on 19.

How it happened

Q1

Dike fumbled the opening kickoff, New York could not cash it, and Zvada opened the scoring from 39

Tennessee’s first possession never happened: Dike, an All-Pro returner as a rookie, lost the opening kickoff and Malik Harrison recovered at the Titans 37. The Giants went backwards and punted, then put together an eight-play, 50-yard drive for Zvada’s first field goal. Tennessee’s three first-quarter possessions gained five, seven and one yards, in rain and wind that shaped everything either offense did.

After one
Giants 3, Titans 0
Tennessee first-quarter drives
3 punts · 13 total yards
Conditions
Nor’easter — rain and wind (AP)

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Zvada from 27 and from 39 at the horn; Joey Slye missed the one chance Tennessee made for itself

An 11-play, 44-yard drive that took 7:10 ended in Zvada’s 27-yarder. Tennessee, which the AP says nearly became the first team in eight years without a first down before halftime, reached the New York 41 in the final two minutes and Slye missed. The Giants then went 30 yards in 41 seconds for Zvada’s third, 9-0 at the break. Simmons had a sack and seven first-half tackles, a career high — no other defensive tackle has had that many in a half this season.

Halftime
Giants 9, Titans 0
Slye
0/1 FG
Simmons
10 tackles · 1 sack · 2 TFL (7 tackles in the first half)

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

A 12-play, 59-yard drive for three more, then Tennessee turned it over on downs at the New York 7

The Giants opened the second half with twelve plays and 8:04 of clock for Zvada’s fourth field goal, 12-0. Tennessee finally moved the ball — twelve plays, 68 yards — and stalled on fourth down at the 7. Ward also missed Carnell Tate wide open in the end zone on the day, per the AP, which does not say on which drive. New York held the ball for 34:26 and ran it 33 times, Skattebo 20 for 60 and Najee Harris 9 for 52, with no turnovers on a wet ball.

Possession
NYG 34:26 · TEN 25:34
Giants rushing
33 carries · 138 yds (Skattebo 20-60, Harris 9-52)
Zvada
4/4 FG (39, 27, 39, 30) · 12 points

ESPN — box score

Q4

Robinson from 4 with 5:35 left, Burns down, and Holland in the end zone with 17 seconds to go

Tennessee went 91 yards in thirteen plays, Ward finding Robinson from four for the game’s only touchdown. New York punted, and the Titans went 70 more yards in thirteen plays to the 7 — where Holland stepped in front of Ward’s throw in the end zone with 17 seconds left. Burns hurt his right knee in the quarter and faces an MRI. Winston: “Today is the only day that we have, and today it was enough.”

Ward
23/36 · 181 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT
Robinson
7 rec · 57 yds · 1 TD on 11 targets
Winston
14/22 · 118 yds (box score)

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has graded this game’s position: 2026_03_TEN_NYG_total graded WIN (plus 62c) at 2026-09-28 00:55 UTC (20:55 ET Sunday), via the canonical settle pass (gridiron_edge/scripts/capture_edge_clv.py --season 2026 --week 3 --mode settle --tables game), run by Cowork once Kalshi had finalized the contracts — the same code the Tue/Wed launchd schedule runs. That grade matches the outcome stated above; the P/L figure is the ledger’s number, not this page’s. The prop rows on this page are not yet graded by the ledger — the Tue/Wed launchd pass owns them (--tables prop was not run) — so every prop grade above is derived from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W3_SUNDAY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w03-sunday.csv), never by hand; entry_price on a NO or UNDER row is the YES price, so that side’s cost is 100 minus it, and no P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The ADJUSTED gate withholds the moneyline position; the total row was created Thursday 2026-09-24 after Dart’s injury was known. Whether that MODERATE under was displayed on a public board before kickoff was not verified — the article did not mention it — and it is reported as the ledger row it is.
  • Winston’s passing line conflicts: the AP says 12 of 18 for 117, ESPN’s box score says 14 of 22 for 118. The box score is used and the conflict is left in the open.
  • Which drive Ward’s miss of Tate came on is not stated by the AP; it is left unplaced above. The opening-kickoff fumble is ESPN’s zero-play possession plus the fumbles table (Dike charged, Harrison recovering), and the AP confirms Dike fumbled the opening kickoff.
  • The weather description comes from the AP; ESPN’s summary carried no weather block. Attendance (79,919) is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • Burns’ knee had no confirmed severity beyond “some hope” pending an MRI (Harbaugh). Fernando Carmona (ankle, first offensive play) and Tyjae Spears (ankle) left for Tennessee.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entry and close quoted are the ledger’s captures, the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close, and the prop grade is a resolution against the box score, not a settlement read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-27. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Giants hold on to beat the Titans 12-7 in their first game without quarterback Jaxson Dart · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

QB-adjusted: Jameis Winston has the Giants job for the rest of the season, and the market has already moved for it

New York confirmed on Wednesday that Jaxson Dart will miss the remainder of the regular season and that Winston starts — a change the market priced days ago and our rating had not. That makes this a QB-adjusted game on our board: one line, carrying a correction, and no position published off it. Underneath the quarterback news, Tennessee arrives 0-2 with both of its running backs held out of Wednesday’s practice.

Giants pass offense · Titans coverage

Jameis Winston, for the rest of the season

Close to even

The Giants announced on Wednesday afternoon that Dart will miss the rest of the regular season and that they will "build a game plan for Jameis to suit his skillset." Winston’s relief appearance last week was 11-of-27 for 111 yards with an interception, which is a small and not especially encouraging sample. The receiver he most needs is not at full strength either: Malik Nabers, still working back from an ACL tear, was limited Wednesday with a shoulder and has seven catches for 70 yards through two games.

Giants announcement
2026-09-23 — Dart out for the rest of the regular season, Winston starts
Winston in relief, Week 2
11/27, 111 yds, 1 INT
Malik Nabers (shoulder)
Limited Wednesday, full in the latest report; 7 rec, 70 yds

Source: giants.com — Dart to miss rest of regular season; Winston to start

Titans offense · Giants defense

Cam Ward’s legs against a Giants pass defense ranked 25th

Edge: Titans

Ward is not on the Titans’ injury report and has been careful with the football — 32-of-52 for 323 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions, plus two rushing scores. He faces a New York pass defense ranked 25th that will be without or limited in several places: Brian Burns (ankle) had not practised in either official session, and Deonte Banks (calf), Tyler Nubin (calf) and Shelby Harris (toe) were all limited. Burns is the pass rush; if he does not go, the 25th-ranked number gets worse rather than better.

Cam Ward, two games
32/52, 323 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 rush TD
Giants pass defense
25th in the NFL
Brian Burns (ankle)
DNP in both official sessions
Andrew Thomas (LT, groin)
DNP Thursday

Source: giants.com — Week 3 injury report

Titans run offense · Giants front

Tennessee held both of its running backs out of practice

Edge: Giants

Tony Pollard (ankle) and Tyjae Spears (ankle) both sat out on Wednesday; by Friday Pollard had no injury designation and Spears was listed questionable, so at least one of the two is expected to play. That matters against a Giants run defense that has been the more reliable half of a unit ranked 25th against the pass. New York’s own run game is led by Cam Skattebo, who managed 12 carries for 36 yards against the Rams and gets a softer matchup here — Tennessee allows 120.5 rushing yards a game, 21st in the league.

Titans RBs (Friday)
Pollard no designation; Spears questionable
Titans run defense
120.5 yds/game allowed — 21st
Cam Skattebo, Week 2
12 carries, 36 yds

Source: tennesseetitans.com — Week 3 injury report: Titans at Giants

What this read does not know

  • This game is QB-adjusted, and that is a weaker read than a normal one. Winston is confirmed, but he is not the quarterback New York’s rating was built on, so the model line carries a flat league-average correction rather than a Winston-specific one. We publish no game-line position on a QB-adjusted game, and the model lean here is never described as stronger than a watch.
  • Dart’s specific diagnosis and roster status are reported, not confirmed by the club. The team announced he is out for the rest of the regular season and that Winston starts. The MCL characterisation and the season-ending surgery come from network reporting, and the head coach declined to confirm surgery specifics; the Giants officially placed Dart on injured reserve on Thursday. The part that matters for this page — Winston starts — is the part the club said itself.
  • Pollard is available and Spears is questionable. Tennessee’s run plan against this defense depends more on Spears than the headline suggests; the inactives list is the ruling.
  • Brian Burns’s ankle is unresolved — no practice in the official sessions — and he is the Giants’ pass rush. Left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin) also missed Thursday.
  • We publish no position on this game — beyond the QB-adjusted rule, the model rows for it sit in held stat families on a run with a systemic one-way lean. See the week’s handoff.

Reporting verified 2026-09-25. Further sources: giants.com — Dart to miss rest of regular season; Winston to start · giants.com — Week 3 injury report · tennesseetitans.com — Week 3 injury report: Titans at Giants · tennesseetitans.com — Cam Ward preparing to face the Giants defense · amNewYork — Giants-Titans Week 3 preview · NFL.com — official Week 3 injury report (latest practice participation) · ESPN — NFL injuries, Friday 09-25 designations

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 3 MODEL LINE
Sun, Sep 27
AWAY TEN -4.9
vs NYG -2.5
HOME NYG -0.7
Fair (books) · NYG 59% home win prob
Kalshi · NYG — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 East Rutherford, NJ PASS — no position

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Titans

41%

fair value (books)

Giants

59%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

39%

Madden 27

61%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Titans at Giants How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Titans at GiantsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Titans at Giants Kalshi spread ladder for Week 3: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Titans–Giants spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Titans vs Giants power ratings (Week 3) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Tennessee Titans-4.932ndBelow Avg
    New York Giants-0.720thAverage

    Titans and Giants season outlook

    TENNYG
    Average wins4.59.8
    Make playoffs2%66%
    Win division2%60%
    Win Super Bowl0.1%3.2%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Titans vs Giants — player pages

    All players →

    Malik Nabers

    WR

    Cam Skattebo

    RB

    Tony Pollard

    RB

    Carnell Tate

    WR

    Wan'Dale Robinson

    WR

    Isaiah Likely

    TE

    Calvin Ridley

    WR

    Tyjae Spears

    RB

    Cam Ward

    QB

    Gunnar Helm

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Titans–Giants is a coin flip on our numbers

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 — the graded call is above.

    There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Giants rate -0.7 (20th of 32), the Titans -4.9 (32nd) — 4.2 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 51%/49%, and this rates as the 13th-closest game of the 16 in Week 3. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge. One input in this line is not a rating: the Giants are without their usual starting quarterback (Jameis Winston starts), and our QB-out term moves the line 6.5 points toward the Titans — already inside the number above.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Giants at 9.8 wins (favored in 7 of 17) and the Titans at 4.5 (favored in 1) — 5.3 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Giants' schedule and the 7th-hardest on the Titans'. It is the softest spot on the Giants' entire schedule.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Giants offense grades +0.7 (13th of 32) against a Titans defense at -2.3 (26th) — 3.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Titans offense (-2.9, 31st) meets the Giants defense (-1.4, 19th), a 1.4-point gap.

    One team has owned this series: the Titans are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Giants won 21-20 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Giants are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 9 New York home games in September since 2015, the median temperature was 71°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Giants at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Titans vs Giants on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG
    Market-implied (Giants)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Giants)
    59%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 59% for the Giants. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Titans vs Giants trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueGiantsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig56% 56cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Titans vs Giants, Week 3 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/titans-vs-giants-week-03-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    The Oracles on this market

    The 7 Oracles on this market — Jameis Winston's targets — Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields — and the Giants' Kalshi prices. The 7 Oracles. Watch the full video →

    Watch the breakdown: Titans vs Giants

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    Titans vs Giants — frequently asked

    Who won Titans vs Giants in Week 3?

    Tennessee Titans 7, New York Giants 12 — final, played Sunday, September 27, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Giants by 2.5 (59% to win), and the Giants won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Titans vs Giants before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Giants by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Titans. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    Why does the model call this a toss-up?

    Because the Giants (-0.7, 20th) and Titans (-4.9, 32nd) are only 4.2 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 59%/41%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.

    How do you take a position on Titans vs Giants?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Giants at 57c or below, or the Titans at 39c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Giants host the Titans?

    Tennessee Titans visit the New York Giants on Sunday, September 27, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 3, at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.

    What does the model project for the Giants and Titans this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Giants at 9.8 wins (favored in 7) and the Titans at 4.5 (favored in 1). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Giants' schedule and 7th-hardest on the Titans', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Titans vs Giants?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Titans vs Giants on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 3 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP27TENNYG has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Giants?

    52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Giants at 51% over the Titans sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Giants moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 59% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 56% on NYG — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Giants hub →Titans hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 3 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    Next up for each team

    Titans: Week 4 at RavensModel line →Giants: Week 4 vs CardinalsModel line →

    More Week 3 matchups

    Falcons at PackersModel: Packers −6Chargers at BillsModel: Bills −7.5Panthers at BrownsModel: Browns −1.5Jets at LionsModel: Lions −6Texans at ColtsModel: Colts −1.5Patriots at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −0.5Chiefs at DolphinsModel: Chiefs −1Bengals at SteelersModel: Steelers −2Seahawks at CommandersModel: Seahawks −8Cardinals at 49ersModel: 49ers −7.5Vikings at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −2.5Ravens at CowboysModel: Ravens −0.5Raiders at SaintsModel: Saints −5Rams at BroncosModel: Rams −0.5Eagles at BearsModel: Eagles −2

    Full Week 3 board →Next: NFL Week 4 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

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    One of 64 games in the first-quarter report

    Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →

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