Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Updated · model ratings
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Broncos by 7 in Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos, NFL Week 13 2026 — 69% to win, and Broncos 12th of 32, Dolphins 28th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Broncos at 64c or below (or Dolphins at 26c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIA
-3.3
DEN
+1.2
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Dolphins
31%
model win prob
Broncos
69%
model win prob
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28%
Madden 27
72%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Broncos at 64c or below, or the Dolphins at 26c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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What the model sees in Dolphins at Broncos
The Dolphins travel to face the Broncos in Week 13. Our power ratings put the Broncos 12th of 32 at +1.2 (Playoff tier) and the Dolphins 28th at -3.3 (Below Avg tier) — a 4.5-point gap that home field widens to a 7-point line on the Broncos, 69% to win. It rates as the 14th-widest of the 14 games in Week 13.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a Dolphins defense at -2.7 (28th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Dolphins offense (-1.4, 26th) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 1.8-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Dolphins grade +0.8, 6th in the league, against +0.2 (25th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9 of 17) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2) — 2.4 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 16th-hardest game on the Broncos' schedule and the 4th-hardest on the Dolphins'.
Recent history, for context only: 9 regular-season meetings since 2002, 5-4 in the Dolphins' favour, plus 1 playoff game. They last met in 2023: Dolphins won 70-20 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Broncos are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
On conditions: Denver home games in December have run a median 48°F and 3 mph of wind across 11 games since 2015, with 36% at or below 40°F and a low of 16°F. Our model has no weather term, so treat that as an input it has not priced.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 69% on the Broncos here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Broncos 69%, Dolphins 31%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Broncos contracts a buy at 64c or below and Dolphins contracts a buy at 26c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Dolphins vs Broncos on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN
- Market-implied (Broncos)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Broncos)
- 69%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Broncos at 64c or below, or the Dolphins at 26c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Dolphins vs Broncos — frequently asked
Who is favored in Dolphins vs Broncos in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Broncos by 7 points, a 69% win probability over the Dolphins. The Broncos rate 12th of 32 (+1.2) and the Dolphins 28th (-3.3); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Dolphins vs Broncos?
Broncos offense (+0.6, 16th of 32) against Dolphins defense (-2.7, 28th) — 3.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Dolphins (+0.8, 6th).
How do you take a position on Dolphins vs Broncos?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Broncos at 64c or below, or the Dolphins at 26c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Broncos host the Dolphins?
Miami Dolphins visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO.
What does the model project for the Broncos and Dolphins this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Broncos at 9.1 wins (favored in 9) and the Dolphins at 6.7 (favored in 2). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Broncos' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Dolphins', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Dolphins vs Broncos?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Broncos at 64c or below or the Dolphins at 26c or below, off a 7-point line.
Can you trade Dolphins vs Broncos on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 13 game market is KXNFLGAME-26DEC06MIADEN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the Broncos?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Broncos at 69% over the Dolphins sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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