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Home/NFL/Week 6/Commanders vs 49ers
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026

Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23

Final. 49ers' next game: 49ers vs Raiders, Week 9 →

Updated · market price

Monday, October 19, 2026 · Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Quick Answer

Final (Monday, October 19, 2026): Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 7.5 (75% to win); the 49ers won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the 49ers at 77c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

New to these pages? Watch the 4-minute guide →

Settled

Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 7.5 (75% to win). The 49ers won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the 49ers: -1c — we archived the 49ers at 78c on Oct 13; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 77c on Oct 19. The market moved against our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Commanders moneylineModel 25% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 23% on WAS — kept as the pre-game record.23c25%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

49ers 23, Commanders 17: Christian McCaffrey scored twice, and Washington’s last three drives ended in 49ers territory without a point

San Francisco led 20-3 at halftime on Monday night and did not score after Eddy Pineiro’s 33-yard field goal midway through the third quarter. George Kittle caught an 11-yard touchdown from Brock Purdy on the opening drive and McCaffrey ran in twice from the 1, the second with 13 seconds left in the half. Jayden Daniels threw touchdowns to Stefon Diggs and Rachaad White to make it 23-17 with 9:22 left, and then the 49ers defense held: a fourth-down throw to Treylon Burks fell incomplete at the San Francisco 17 with 1:54 to go, and Washington’s final drive reached the 28 before an intentional-grounding penalty and a sack ended the game. DraftKings opened the 49ers as 5.5-point home favorites and closed them −7.5; they won by six, and 40 points finished under both the opening 50.5 and the closing 51.5.

Commanders 17—49ers 23

Final✓ Call hit

The chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had San Francisco at 74.7%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 7.5-point 49ers line. San Francisco won. The model’s own read had the 49ers by 7.1, a lean of under half a point toward Washington, tier NONE: the model and the market had the same game, so there was no lean to grade. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position: its two Commanders moneyline rows were voided on October 11 and on October 19, about 90 minutes before kickoff, and its game-total row on October 18 (no longer an edge), and they count in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff player run carried no PLAY rows on this game. It carried seven WATCH rows, graded apart as always and never folded into the record. Three are suppressed stats the board never displays (Purdy under 224.5, 249.5 and 274.5 passing yards) and they count in neither direction. The four visible rows went 3-1: Purdy under 2.5 touchdown passes (he threw one), Austin Ekeler over 1.5 catches (two) and Rachaad White over 14.5 receiving yards (30) were right, and Daniels under 1.5 touchdown passes lost when he threw two.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
49ers −5.5 → 49ers −7.5
Total
50.5 → 51.5
Moneyline
WAS +205 / SF −250 → WAS +320 / SF −410

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 1 to 51.5; the game landed on 40.

How it happened

Q1

Kittle on the opening drive, then McCaffrey from 1 after Mike Evans’ 54-yard catch

San Francisco went 64 yards in nine plays to open the game and Purdy found Kittle from 11 yards at 10:53. Drew Stevens answered with a 51-yard field goal, and on the next 49ers drive Evans caught a 54-yard pass to the Washington 18 and McCaffrey scored from the 1. Pineiro pushed the extra point wide right, so it stayed 13-3. Terry McLaurin was hurt on a Daniels sack later in the quarter.

Opening drive
9 plays · 64 yds · 4:07
Stevens
51-yard FG, 8:48 Q1
Evans
54-yard catch to WAS 18
End of first quarter
49ers 13, Commanders 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

A stop on fourth down at the 13, a McCaffrey fumble, then his second touchdown with 13 seconds left

Washington drove to the San Francisco 13 and Daniels’ fourth-and-2 throw fell incomplete. The 49ers gave the ball back when K’Lavon Chaisson forced a McCaffrey fumble that Frankie Luvu recovered at the Washington 19, San Francisco’s only turnover. Their next drive went 14 plays and 69 yards over 6:13, through two offensive holding penalties, and McCaffrey scored from the 1 for a 20-3 halftime lead.

Fourth-down stop
4th & 2 at SF 13, incomplete
Fumble
forced by Chaisson, recovered by Luvu at WAS 19
McCaffrey TD drive
14 plays · 69 yds · 6:13
Halftime
49ers 20, Commanders 3

ESPN — play-by-play

Q3

Pineiro from 33, then Daniels to Diggs and to White to make it a one-score game

Pineiro’s 33-yard field goal at 5:56 of the third made it 23-3. Washington answered with an 11-play, 65-yard drive and Daniels hit Diggs from the 1 with 15 seconds left in the quarter. Early in the fourth, a muffed punt the 49ers recovered at the Washington 20 was overturned on replay, and Daniels then led a 10-play, 80-yard drive that ended with a 9-yard touchdown to White: 23-17 with 9:22 left.

Pineiro
33-yard FG, 5:56 Q3
Diggs TD drive
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:41
White TD drive
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:43
Score
49ers 23, Commanders 17 (9:22 Q4)

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

A 31-yard touchdown called back, a fourth-down miss at the 17, and a last drive that ended in a sack

Jeremy McNichols ran 31 yards for what would have been the go-ahead touchdown with 4:19 left, but a face-mask penalty on Washington wiped it out. The drive reached the 17 and Daniels’ fourth-and-3 throw to Burks was incomplete with 1:54 to go. After a San Francisco punt and a fair-catch-interference penalty, Washington started at its 46 with 52 seconds left and got to the 49ers 28; an intentional-grounding penalty with a 10-second runoff moved it back to the 40, and Daniels was sacked on the final play.

Final
49ers 23, Commanders 17
Purdy
21 of 29 · 264 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
Daniels
29 of 40 · 300 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · 4 sacks
McCaffrey
16 carries · 64 yds · 2 TD · 9 catches · 53 yds
Penalties
WAS 7 for 66 · SF 11 for 88

ESPN — box score

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game, and holds no live row for it: both Commanders moneyline rows and the game-total row were voided before kickoff. Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_MNF_RECAP_2026-10-20/prop-reconciliation-was-sf-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • No wire story was on the ESPN event when this was written, so this recap quotes no one and attributes nothing to postgame comments.
  • ESPN reported Terry McLaurin was carted off with a knee injury in the first quarter and that the 49ers ruled Mike Evans out after the play-by-play logged him hurt late in the second quarter (ESPN’s headline says Achilles). The severity of either, and of the injuries the play-by-play logs for Javon Kinlaw and S. Cosmi, was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know why the DraftKings line moved from San Francisco −5.5 at the open to −7.5 at the close, and claims no cause.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-20. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · ESPN — Commanders’ Terry McLaurin carted off field with knee injury, ruled out for MNF · ESPN — 49ers rule out Mike Evans due to Achilles injury

The 49ers are 5-0 and getting thinner by the week; Washington has the one quarterback profile that stresses what they have left

San Francisco finishes drives better than anyone in football — first on third down, first in red-zone touchdown rate — and does it behind a line that has allowed three sacks all season. The case against them on Monday is not the numbers, it is the roster that has to post them: Deebo Samuel is out for weeks, Dre Greenlaw’s suspension was upheld, and Nick Bosa, Kyle Juszczyk and James Thompson Jr. have “a chance” rather than a clearance. Jayden Daniels is back, ran for 103 yards in his first game off a dislocated elbow, and scrambles more than any quarterback in the league but Josh Allen. This is our published position of the week on this game, and this is the honest case for and against it.

Injury and availability picture · 49ers

Samuel out, Greenlaw suspended, Bosa and Juszczyk “have a chance”: the 49ers’ roster on Monday is not the one that went 5-0

Edge: Commanders

Start with what is certain. Deebo Samuel pulled a hamstring on an end-around in Seattle, the MRI confirmed a multi-week absence, and Brandin Cooks — signed off the practice squad two weeks ago — is the club’s stated answer. Dre Greenlaw’s one-game suspension for head-butting a helmetless Ernest Jones IV was upheld on appeal Tuesday; he sits Monday and is eligible back the next day. Then the maybes: Shanahan grouped Nick Bosa, Kyle Juszczyk and James Thompson Jr. together — “they’ve all got a chance, but definitely not saying they’re good to go right now” — and Bosa has now missed three games with a left calf. Safety Marques Sigle is reported out for at least a month with a high-ankle sprain. Christian Kirk is on injured reserve, and Ricky Pearsall was reported out for the season before any of this. The 49ers have been winning without most of these men, which is the point: a 5-0 built on Purdy, McCaffrey, Kittle and Mike Evans is still a 5-0, but the margin for one more injury is gone.

Out Monday
Deebo Samuel (hamstring, multi-week) · Dre Greenlaw (suspension upheld 10/13) · Marques Sigle (high-ankle, ~1 month) · Christian Kirk (IR)
“A chance”, not cleared (Shanahan, 10/12)
Nick Bosa (calf, 3 games missed) · Kyle Juszczyk (knee) · James Thompson Jr. (ankle)
What Samuel was
16-206-3 receiving, 9 carries for 78, and all 11 of the 49ers’ kick returns with a 25.5 average

Source: 49ers.com — After Further Review: Shanahan on the win over Seattle; injury updates (2026-10-12)

Commanders run game · 49ers run defense

Jayden Daniels’ legs against the one below-average part of the 49ers defense

Edge: Commanders

The 49ers are a top-eight defense by almost any measure and sacked Sam Darnold five times last week; the single place they grade below the middle is run-stop win rate, 22nd. Daniels is the quarterback that exposes that. In three starts he has 21 carries for 203 yards at 9.7 a carry, and in his first game back from the elbow he ran nine times for 103 with touchdowns of 38 and 26 yards, scrambling on 18.9% of his dropbacks — second in the league that week behind Josh Allen. Washington ran for 7.0 a carry against the Giants as a team. The 49ers linebacker who would normally be the answer to a scrambling quarterback is Greenlaw, and he is suspended; Fred Warner will have Jaden Dugger beside him. This is the one dimension of the matchup where Washington has a structural edge rather than a hope, and it is also the dimension most exposed to a single hit on an elbow that was dislocated four weeks ago.

Daniels on the ground
21 carries, 203 yards, 2 TD, 9.7 per carry in three starts · 9-103-2 and an 18.9% scramble rate in Week 5
49ers run defense
29% run-stop win rate, 22nd · 3.7 yards per carry allowed · Greenlaw (team’s second-leading tackler) suspended
Washington run game vs the Giants
202 rushing yards, 7.0 per carry; Croskey-Merritt 11 touches for 82 and a score

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Commanders vs 49ers Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar)

49ers pass protection · Commanders pass rush

Three sacks allowed all season against a Washington rush that is better than its record

Edge: 49ers

Purdy has been sacked three times on 145 dropbacks, all three of them in Seattle, and the line behind that number ranks fifth in pass-block win rate and fourth in run-block win rate. Washington’s front is the respectable half of its defense — ninth in pass-rush win rate, nine sacks, K’Lavon Chaisson and Odafe Oweh with four and a half of them between them — but it has turned pressure into sacks at a below-average clip, and Charles Omenihu was a non-participant with a groin last week. The reverse matchup is where the gap opens: Washington’s offensive line ranks last in the league in run-block win rate and 26th overall, Daniels has been sacked six times in 82 dropbacks, and the 49ers’ line ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate even with Bosa out, with Keion White at three sacks. If Bosa plays, that unit gets its best player back against a line that already gives up pressure at a 7% sack rate.

49ers protection
Purdy sacked 3 times on 145 dropbacks (2.1%), all in Week 5 · 56% pass-block win rate, 5th · 76% run-block win rate, 4th
Commanders pass rush
53% pass-rush win rate, 9th · 9 sacks (Chaisson 2.5, Oweh 2.0) · 4.5% sack rate
Commanders protection
67% run-block win rate, 32nd · 26th-ranked line · Daniels sacked 6 times in 82 dropbacks (7.3%)

Source: Baltimore Sports and Life — 2026 NFL Week 6 preview (ESPN line win rates through Week 5)

Situational · both sides

The finishing gap: the league’s best red-zone offense against the league’s worst red-zone defense

Edge: 49ers

This is the market’s case, and it is a strong one. San Francisco converts 51.9% of third downs and scores a touchdown on 87.5% of red-zone trips, first in the league in both; Washington converts 31.9% of its own third downs, 29th, and allows a touchdown on 83.3% of opponent red-zone trips, 32nd. The second-half numbers say the same thing from a different angle — Washington has been outscored by 34 points after halftime and has allowed a league-high 55 fourth-quarter points, which is how a two-touchdown lead over the Giants became a tie. San Francisco has outscored opponents by 31 in the second half. On the other side of the ball the 49ers’ defense allows a touchdown on half of opponents’ red-zone trips and has seven takeaways, four of them in Seattle. Washington’s one path through this is to score touchdowns early and have Daniels’ legs extend drives late; its five games say that second part has not happened yet.

Drive finishing
49ers 51.9% third down (1st), 87.5% red-zone TD rate (1st) · Commanders 31.9% third down (29th), 50% red-zone TD rate
Red-zone defense
Commanders allow a TD on 83.3% of trips, 32nd · 49ers allow a TD on 50%
Second halves
Commanders outscored by 34 after halftime, 55 fourth-quarter points allowed (most in NFL) · 49ers +31 after halftime

Source: Pro Football Reference — 2026 Washington Commanders and 2026 San Francisco 49ers team pages (conversions tables)

What this read does not know

  • Our model and the market agree on this game to within a point, so the published position is a price read, not a model disagreement — and the matchup facts give it a thinner why than the Week 5 Bengals–Dolphins position had. That case rested on a visiting offense missing its top two receivers and unable to run; this one rests on the 49ers playing without Samuel, Greenlaw and possibly Bosa, and on Daniels’ scrambling against a run defense that is merely average. Both are real. Neither is as large. The position is MODERATE for that reason, and if Bosa, Juszczyk and Thompson are all cleared Friday the roster half of the case shrinks to Samuel and Greenlaw.
  • No official practice report exists for either club at writing. Monday games file their first report Thursday afternoon. Everything above about availability is Shanahan’s Monday remarks, the league’s Tuesday appeal ruling, and Week 5 reports. Friday’s designations resolve Bosa, Juszczyk, Thompson and Jacob Cowing for San Francisco, and Stefon Diggs (hamstring, out Week 5), Omenihu, Nick Cross and Tyler Owens for Washington. Terry McLaurin played through a hamstring listing last week and caught all four targets; Diggs’ status moves the slot work to Antonio Williams.
  • Daniels’ elbow is the input the whole Washington case rests on, and the backup situation behind it is as thin as it gets. He dislocated the left elbow on 20 September, declined surgery, missed two games and returned to full participation last week. Marcus Mariota, who started those two games, is out with a knee injury, and the next man is Athan Kaliakmanis, whose one NFL appearance was 15-of-33 for 186 yards in the London loss. A quarterback who gains his edge by running is also the quarterback most likely to take the hit that re-tests the joint. If Daniels leaves, this game has no priced model behind it.
  • Pressure rate is not available for either team from the sources we could reach, and the Seattle sack count disagrees by outlet. The pass-rush framing rests on ESPN win rates and PFR sack totals; the “five sacks of Darnold” figure comes from two secondary sources and the club’s own recap does not give a count. Treat the pass-rush edges above as directional.
  • The 49ers’ 5-0 includes two one-score wins and a Seattle game they won on takeaways rather than offense. The Cardinals game was 36-30, the Seahawks game 32-29 with four Seattle turnovers and the offense posting a negative expected-points contribution for the first time all season. That is not evidence the 49ers are worse than their record — the defense earned those takeaways — but it is evidence that the margin in a given 49ers game can be smaller than the season numbers suggest, which is the only kind of evidence a long-price position ever has.
  • Monday kickoff means three more days of information, and this read should be re-run rather than patched. Friday designations first, then a Sunday-night check once the rest of Week 6 has been played and nothing about this game has.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: 49ers.com — After Further Review: Shanahan on the win over Seattle; injury updates (2026-10-12) · ESPN — Niners LB Dre Greenlaw’s appeal of suspension rejected, will sit vs. Commanders (2026-10-13) · NBC Sports Bay Area — Bosa optimistic about returning against the Commanders (2026-10-09) · Heavy via Yahoo Sports — 49ers get encouraging injury news ahead of Commanders game (2026-10-13) · ABC7 News — 49ers lose WR Deebo Samuel to hamstring injury vs. Seahawks · KOMO News — Seahawks lose to 49ers after Purdy leads two late scoring drives (2026-10-11) · KSAT (AP) — Daniels and Commanders settle for 27-27 tie with Giants after botching final play of OT (2026-10-11) · Newsweek — Jayden Daniels could return a lot sooner than Commanders expected (elbow, September 2026) · Sharp Football Analysis — Commanders vs 49ers Week 6 worksheet (Rich Hribar) · Baltimore Sports and Life — 2026 NFL Week 6 preview (ESPN line win rates through Week 5) · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Washington Commanders · Pro Football Reference — 2026 San Francisco 49ers

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Mon, Oct 19
AWAY WAS -1.8
vs SF -7.5
HOME SF +2.7
Fair (books) · SF 75% home win prob
Kalshi · SF 98¢ yes mid
Edge -22.8pp fair − Kalshi
📍 Santa Clara, CA PASS — no position

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Commanders

25%

fair value (books)

49ers

75%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

25%

Madden 27

75%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Commanders at 49ers How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Commanders at 49ersSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Commanders at 49ers Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Commanders–49ers spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Commanders vs 49ers power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Washington Commanders-1.825thAverage
    San Francisco 49ers+2.76thPlayoff

    Commanders and 49ers season outlook

    WASSF
    Average wins6.111.9
    Make playoffs9%89%
    Win division5%69%
    Win Super Bowl0.5%7.1%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Commanders vs 49ers — player pages

    All players →

    Christian McCaffrey

    RB

    Terry McLaurin

    WR

    Mike Evans

    WR

    Jayden Daniels

    QB

    Brock Purdy

    QB

    George Kittle

    TE

    Rachaad White

    RB

    Stefon Diggs

    WR

    Chig Okonkwo

    TE

    Deebo Samuel Sr.

    WR

    Antonio Williams

    WR

    Brandon Aiyuk

    WR

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the 49ers by 7

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 — the graded call is above.

    The model does not think this one is close. The 49ers rate 6th of 32 at +2.7, the Commanders 25th at -1.8, and once home field is applied the line lands on the 49ers by 7 — 69% to win. That is the 3rd-widest gap among the 14 games on the Week 6 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Commanders need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the 49ers offense grades +3.8 (2nd of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.4 (27th) — 6.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+0.3, 18th) meets the 49ers defense (-1.7, 21st), a 2.0-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14 of 17) and the Commanders at 6.1 (favored in 7) — 5.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 14th-hardest game on the 49ers' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Commanders'.

    Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.

    One team has owned this series: the 49ers are 8-4 in 12 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 4 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: 49ers won 27-10 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the 49ers are 3-1. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favorites went 68%. The 69% on the 49ers here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

    Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT19WASSF contract implies 98% for the 49ers against a fair value (books) of 75% — a 22.8-point gap. No position on this game.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Commanders vs 49ers on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT19WASSF
    Market-implied (49ers)
    98c · 98%
    Fair value — books (49ers)
    75%
    Fair value vs market
    -22.8pp

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 75% for the 49ers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Commanders vs 49ers trades Why the venues differ →

    2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.

    Venue49ersTrade
    Kalshi98% 98cTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig77% 77cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract98% 98cOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contract98% 98cOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Commanders vs 49ers

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    Commanders vs 49ers — frequently asked

    Who won Commanders vs 49ers in Week 6?

    Washington Commanders 17, San Francisco 49ers 23 — final, played Monday, October 19, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the 49ers by 7.5 (75% to win), and the 49ers won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Commanders vs 49ers before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the 49ers by 7.5 points, a 75% win probability over the Commanders. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT19WASSF market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Commanders to win?

    The 7-point line comes from a 4.5-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Commanders still project at 25% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Commanders defense (-2.4, 27th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Commanders vs 49ers?

    The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT19WASSF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. 49ers YES is quoted around 98c against a fair value (books) of 75%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the 49ers host the Commanders?

    Washington Commanders visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday, October 19, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 6, at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.

    What does the model project for the 49ers and Commanders this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the 49ers at 11.9 wins (favored in 14) and the Commanders at 6.1 (favored in 7). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the 49ers' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Commanders', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Commanders vs 49ers?

    Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT19WASSF. The 49ers YES contract sits around 98c, which is an implied 98% — against our books-anchored fair value of 75%. That is a 22.8pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.

    Could you trade Commanders vs 49ers on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT19WASSF has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 69% on a team like the 49ers?

    68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The 49ers at 69% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 7-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Commanders moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 25% against a market price implying 23%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 25% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 23% on WAS — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Commanders: Week 8 vs EaglesModel line →49ers: Week 7 at FalconsModel line →

    More Week 6 matchups

    Seahawks at BroncosModel: evenTexans at JaguarsModel: Jaguars −2.5Bears at FalconsModel: Falcons −0.5Ravens at BrownsModel: Browns −4.5Titans at ColtsModel: Colts −6.5Jets at PatriotsModel: Patriots −8.5Saints at GiantsModel: Giants −0.5Panthers at EaglesModel: Panthers −1.5Steelers at BuccaneersModel: Steelers −2Cardinals at RamsModel: Rams −9.5Chargers at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −5.5Bills at RaidersModel: Bills −3Cowboys at PackersModel: Packers −4.5

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

    Same model, inside your AI agent

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