Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Cowboys

43%

model win prob

Texans

57%

model win prob

Model line

Texans −2.5

Kalshi (Texans)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Texans — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Dallas Cowboys+1.08thPlayoff

Houston Texans+1.17thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 4, the Dallas Cowboys travel to face the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Texans 7th of 32 (Playoff tier, +1.1) and the Cowboys 8th (Playoff tier, +1.0). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Texans by 2.5 — a 57% win probability for the Texans.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 57% (Texans) / 43% (Cowboys) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Cowboys vs Texans — frequently asked

Who is favored in Cowboys vs Texans in Week 4?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Texans by 2.5 points and gives them a 57% win probability over the Cowboys. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Cowboys vs Texans?

Home win probability 57% (Texans), away 43% (Cowboys). That comes from a power-rating differential of +0.0 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Texans rate 7th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Cowboys 8th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Cowboys vs Texans on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.