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Home/NFL/Week 4/Cowboys vs Texans
Gridiron EdgeWeek 4 · 2026

Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30

Final. Texans' next game: Texans vs Chargers, Week 9 →Upset: Cowboys closed +130 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 4, 2026): Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 — NFL Week 4, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 3 (60% to win); the Cowboys won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Texans at 59c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 3 (60% to win). The Cowboys won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Texans: +2c — we archived the Texans at 56c on Sep 28; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 59c on Oct 4. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 4 · 2026-10-05

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Texans to winModel 60% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 59% on HOU — kept as the pre-game record.59c61%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Dallas 34, Houston 30: CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes, the last a 12-yard touchdown with 40 seconds left, and the Texans are 0-4

Houston led 16-6 at the half on Nico Collins’ touchdown and three Ka’imi Fairbairn field goals, with Brandon Aubrey missing from 62 (blocked) and 65. Javonte Williams then ran for three second-half touchdowns, a career high. Woody Marks put Houston ahead 30-27 with 2:23 left after a hook-and-ladder on third-and-14, and Dak Prescott went 74 yards in 11 plays, converting a fourth down, to Lamb for the win. Lamb’s 17 catches for 189 yards were a career high.

Cowboys 34—Texans 30

Final✗ Call missed

The chip reads a miss. The stored probability had Houston at 60.5% — the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero from a 3-point Texans line — and Dallas won. The model’s own read was Houston by 2.4, a 0.6-point lean toward Dallas, tier NONE, and Dallas won outright: right side, small lean. The ledger’s position was on Houston. 2026_04_DAL_HOU_moneyline is a MODERATE row on the Texans, entered at 49.5c on Tuesday 2026-09-22; as stored it carries Houston at 60.5% against a Kalshi price of 57.5c, a 2.97-point edge to Houston. That edge is the books’ price against Kalshi’s, not the model’s read. The contract closed at 58.5c, a CLV of plus 9c, and Houston lost, which the score grades a loss — a position that beat the closing price and lost the game. Saturday’s article passed on this game, noting C.J. Stroud’s rushing over sat on WATCH. The final player board held no PLAY row here. The one WATCH row that counts, Lamb under 5.5 receptions, lost to 17 catches.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Texans −2.5 → Texans −3
Total
47.5 → 48.5
To win
DAL +114 / HOU −135 → DAL +130 / HOU −155

The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total rose 1 to 48.5; the game landed on 64.

How it happened

Q1

Collins went 45 yards on Houston’s first play and finished the drive

Collins’ 45-yard catch-and-run opened the game, and he caught the seven-yard touchdown at 10:01. Aubrey and Fairbairn traded field goals from 39 and 51.

After one
Texans 10, Cowboys 3

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Will Anderson blocked Aubrey from 62, Aubrey missed from 65, and Fairbairn kept making them

Aubrey made a 50-yarder for 10-6. Anderson blocked his 62-yard try about four and a half minutes before the half, Fairbairn hit from 39, Aubrey’s 65-yarder sailed wide left, and Fairbairn closed the half from 54.

Halftime
Texans 16, Cowboys 6
Fairbairn
3 FG (51, 39, 54)

ESPN — AP recap

Q3

Williams scored twice in the third, the second after two Lassiter penalties at the 1

A 30-yard catch by Lamb set up Williams’ eight-yard run on the opening drive, 16-13. Jaylin Noel’s 53-yard kickoff return set up Collins’ 22-yard touchdown, 23-13. George Pickens caught a 53-yarder over Kamari Lassiter, Lassiter was flagged for pass interference at the 1 and then for holding on fourth down, and Williams scored from a yard at 6:49.

After three
Texans 23, Cowboys 20
Collins
7 rec · 118 yds · 2 TD

ESPN — AP recap

Q4

A hook-and-ladder put Houston ahead; Prescott went 74 yards to Lamb

Williams’ two-yard run gave Dallas its first lead, 27-23, at 11:17. On third-and-14 Houston ran a hook-and-ladder, Dalton Schultz catching for two and David Montgomery running 19, and Marks scored from six at 2:23. Prescott went 74 yards in 11 plays, converting a fourth down, and hit Lamb from 12 with 40 seconds left. Stroud’s last pass fell incomplete.

Winning drive
11 plays · 74 yds · 1:43
Lamb
17 rec · 189 yds · 1 TD
Prescott · Stroud
32/45 · 335 yds · 1 TD · 21/31 · 347 yds · 2 TD

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. 2026_04_DAL_HOU_moneyline carried no result, pnl_cents or graded_at when this was written (2026-10-04, 22:10 UTC); the outcome above is derived from the final score, and the prop grades from the ESPN box score by script (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W4_SUNDAY_EARLY_2026/prop-reconciliation-w04-sunday-early.csv), never by hand. No P/L is summed on this page. If the ledger ever disagrees with anything above, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • The Houston game-winner row was captured 2026-09-22, twelve days before kickoff. The preview on this page carries no game-line call. Whether the row showed on the edges board on Sunday morning was not checked against a page snapshot.
  • Jaylin Smith (hamstring) and Jaden Crumedy (shoulder) left the game; severity was not confirmed when this was published.
  • DraftKings’ archived opening total is 47.5 at -110 both ways, the same figure ESPN served for three other games in this window; it may be a look-ahead number rather than an opening market. The 48.5 close is not in doubt.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price; the entries and closes quoted are the ledger’s captures and the DraftKings numbers are ESPN’s archived open and close.

Reporting verified 2026-10-04. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: CeeDee Lamb’s late TD caps a wild Cowboys rally to beat winless Texans 34-30 · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

The league’s second-best sack rate against an offense that has not been sacked enough to notice

Houston is 0-3 with the defense doing all the work — second in the NFL in sack rate, and still losing games by three and by two. Dallas is 1-2 with an offense ranked fourth in EPA per play and a defense that has registered two sacks in three weeks, both of them in the opener. Both quarterbacks are confirmed and neither is on the injury report, which leaves the secondary Dallas has been patching since Week 1 — and traded a 2028 second-round pick to patch again, twelve hours before we pulled this.

Quarterback rooms · the injury and practice picture

The quarterback question is settled here; Dallas’s secondary is not

Edge: Texans

Start with what is not a question. Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud are both confirmed starters and neither appears on his club’s Wednesday practice report at all, so nothing on this page is QB-adjusted and no backup is in the frame. What is actually hurt is the Dallas secondary, and it has been for three weeks: safety Jalen Thompson is out four to six weeks with a hamstring, P.J. Locke is on injured reserve with a foot injury for at least four more, Cobie Durant (hamstring) and Shavon Revel Jr. (knee/ankle) did not practise, and Malik Hooker was limited on a fractured forearm. DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) sat out too, which leaves rookie Jaishawn Barham wearing the green dot. Dallas answered late Wednesday night by sending Pittsburgh a 2028 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth for cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who has not played a down this season. Houston’s report is much longer and much softer — thirteen names, nine of them limited — and the two that matter are Nico Collins (hamstring), on the practice field for the first time in three weeks, and Will Anderson Jr. (ankle).

Cowboys, Wednesday 9/30
Durant, Overshown, Revel DNP; Hooker limited (forearm)
Texans, Wednesday 9/30
13 names — Al-Shaair, Brooks, Brown DNP; Collins and Anderson limited
Joey Porter Jr.
Acquired 9/30 for a 2028 2nd and a 2027 6th — no 2026 snaps

Source: houstontexans.com — Week 4 Injury Report: Texans vs. Cowboys (Wednesday 09-30-2026)

Texans pass rush · Cowboys protection

Will Anderson Jr. against the line that just had its best day of the year

Edge: Texans

This is the one thing Houston does better than almost anybody. Anderson has four sacks in three games, 2.5 of them at Indianapolis along with a forced fumble and double-digit pressures, and the league handed him its Way to Play award for the week. Behind him sit Danielle Hunter and a knee-managed Jadeveon Clowney, and the unit as a whole pressures on 39.4 percent of dropbacks — ninth in football — and converts at a 10.3 percent sack rate, which is second. Dallas arrives with a line that had its best complete performance of the season in Brazil, 148 rushing yards and a single sack allowed against a defense that entered Week 3 among the league leaders in pressure rate, and that is ranked ninth this week. The reward if the protection holds is real: Houston keeps Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter on the outside, but the coverage has been beaten underneath and is giving up the seventh-most passing yards a game, and CeeDee Lamb has gone over 100 in two of three.

Will Anderson Jr.
4 sacks in 3 games — 2.5 and a forced fumble at Indianapolis
Texans team sacks
10 through three games
Texans secondary
Stingley, Lassiter, Bullock — Stingley already has an interception

Source: Blogging The Boys — Cowboys Week 4 opponent: Who are the 2026 Houston Texans?

Cowboys pass rush · Texans offense

Two sacks in three games, against the one quarterback who needs to be hurried

Close to even

Dallas spent a year rebuilding this front — a trade for Rashan Gary, Von Miller signed, Malachi Lawrence in the first round — and has two sacks to show for three games, both in the opener and none since. The club’s own site puts the Cowboys 30th in sacks, tied 23rd in pressure percentage and 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt. That matters more than usual here, because Stroud has thrown no interceptions all season and is a quarterback whose errors arrive when he is rushed; a front that never gets home is the single most helpful thing Houston could meet. The counterweight is that Houston cannot run the ball at all. Its backs are averaging 84.7 rushing yards a game at 3.6 a carry, and Next Gen Stats has them hit at the line of scrimmage on 66.7 percent of carries — the highest rate in the league by eight points — with a 33 percent stuff rate and the only negative yards-before-contact figure in football. Dallas is also the defense opponents choose to run at more than any other, so the question is whether Houston can take the invitation.

Cowboys sacks
2 in three games — 30th; both came in Week 1
Cowboys pressure percentage
14.4% — tied 23rd (Pro Football Reference)
Yards allowed per pass attempt
7.4 — 24th

Source: dallascowboys.com — Mailbag: How can the pass rush get better?

What this read does not know

  • Joey Porter Jr. landed in Dallas about twelve hours before we pulled this, and nobody knows whether he plays. He has not taken a snap in 2026 — placed on PUP in early August with a back issue during a contract impasse, inactive for all three Pittsburgh games, and already ruled out of the Steelers’ Thursday night game before the trade went through. Dallas confirmed the deal on Thursday morning and there is no extension attached to it. He appears on no Week 4 injury report, because he was not on this roster when the report was filed, so we have no practice line for him at all. Reporting says plainly that it remains to be seen whether he is ready for Sunday. Nothing in the reads above assumes he is on the field, and if he starts, the third unit changes shape.
  • Nico Collins is the largest single swing on this board and all we have is a practice line. He strained a hamstring in practice before Week 2, missed two games, and was limited on Wednesday — his first work in three weeks. DeMeco Ryans has been publicly optimistic and a league source put it at "a decent chance", which is not a status. With him, Houston has an outside receiver again and Dallas’s thinned secondary has a genuine problem; without him, Dalton Schultz and Jaylin Noel carry the passing game and the whole offense looks different. We cannot price that difference from a Wednesday participation column.
  • Houston’s two load-bearing defenders are both unresolved, and one of them is the unit’s reason for existing. Will Anderson Jr. was limited with an ankle three days after the best game of his season; the second read above is substantially weaker if he is restricted. Azeez Al-Shaair, who leads the team in tackles, did not practise with a groin, and Jake Hansen (calf) was limited behind him, so Houston could be short at linebacker against a team that would like to run. None of that is settled before Friday.
  • Our injury feed is practice participation, not game-status designations. The Week 4 report is practice participation only and was fetched 2026-10-01T12:01Z, which is Thursday — Sunday’s OUT, DOUBTFUL and QUESTIONABLE designations do not exist yet, and anything either club filed after that window is not in it. Treat every body named above as Wednesday-accurate and no more. The underlying data also disagrees with itself: the league’s own Week 4 page listed the same players with no injury descriptions at all on the day the clubs itemised every one of them.
  • The power ratings behind the model line are this week’s board (as-of 2026-09-30, written by the Week 4 pipeline run; an earlier version of this read called them stale, which was a freshness label on our own tool, fixed on 2026-10-01). Houston’s rating is still being carried by an 0-3 record built from a six-point loss, a fourteen-point loss and a two-point loss, which is the profile a ratings grid is worst at reading.
  • Two numbers in this game are published more than one way, and we took the conservative version of each. Houston’s team sack total is reported as 10 through three games by the outlet we cited and as 11 elsewhere; we used 10. Dallas’s pressure rate is 14.4 percent and tied 23rd on the club’s own site, citing Pro Football Reference, and 33.7 percent and 22nd in a Week 4 analytics worksheet — different definitions reaching the same verdict, so we quoted the club. One secondary tracker also had this game on the wrong date entirely; where reporting conflicted, we used the team.

Reporting verified 2026-10-01. Further sources: houstontexans.com — Week 4 Injury Report: Texans vs. Cowboys (Wednesday 09-30-2026) · NFL.com — official Week 4 injury report (latest practice participation) · dallascowboys.com — Mailbag: How can the pass rush get better? · dallascowboys.com — Zero to 100: Key stats on Pickens, Barham and more · dallascowboys.com — Updates, September 2026 (Locke to IR, Hooker, Overshown, Durant) · dallascowboys.com — Cowboys agree to terms on trade for Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. · Sports Illustrated — Dallas Cowboys trade for Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. · Sports Illustrated — Steelers trade Joey Porter Jr. to Cowboys · Bleacher Report — Joey Porter Jr. traded to Cowboys following Steelers contract standoff · The Dallas Morning News — Cowboys acquire Joey Porter Jr. from Steelers · Blogging The Boys — Cowboys Week 4 opponent: Who are the 2026 Houston Texans? · Blogging The Boys — The Cowboys secondary has become depleted (Thompson, Locke, Revel) · Blogging The Boys — Report card: grading Week 3 vs. the Ravens (Barham, health) · Sharp Football Analysis — Cowboys at Texans Week 4 worksheet (pressure and sack rate, team ranks) · 4for4 — NFL offensive line rankings, Week 4: matchups to exploit · TSN — Can the 0-3 Texans defy history again? (Next Gen Stats run-game detail) · Sports Illustrated — Cowboys vs. Texans Week 4 preview (team EPA per play and efficiency ranks) · Sportsnaut — Week 4 NFL defense rankings (Will Anderson Jr., Week 3 detail) · FantasyPros — CeeDee Lamb player notes, Week 4 (Stingley matchup, passing yards allowed) · Yahoo Sports — Texans news: Will Anderson Jr. ankle injury puts a damper on Nico Collins return · PrizePicks Playbook — Nico Collins injury update: is the Texans WR playing in Week 4?

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 4 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 4
AWAY DAL -0.6
vs HOU -3
HOME HOU +0.5
Fair (books) · HOU 60% home win prob
Kalshi · HOU — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Houston, TX PASS — no position

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Cowboys

40%

fair value (books)

Texans

60%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

52%

Madden 27

48%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Cowboys at Texans How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Cowboys at TexansSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Cowboys at Texans Kalshi spread ladder for Week 4: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Cowboys–Texans spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Cowboys vs Texans power ratings (Week 4) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Dallas Cowboys-0.619thAverage
    Houston Texans+0.515thAverage

    Cowboys and Texans season outlook

    DALHOU
    Average wins8.07.3
    Make playoffs32%24%
    Win division25%15%
    Win Super Bowl1.9%1.8%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Cowboys vs Texans — player pages

    All players →

    CeeDee Lamb

    WR

    Nico Collins

    WR

    Javonte Williams

    RB

    David Montgomery

    RB

    Woody Marks

    RB

    George Pickens

    WR

    Marvin Harrison Jr.

    WR

    Dak Prescott

    QB

    Jake Ferguson

    TE

    C.J. Stroud

    QB

    Dalton Schultz

    TE

    Ryan Flournoy

    WR

    Brevyn Spann-Ford

    Tyler Goodson

    DAL Cowboys D/ST

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: What the model sees in Cowboys at Texans

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 — the graded call is above.

    The Cowboys travel to face the Texans in Week 4. Our power ratings put the Texans 15th of 32 at +0.5 (Average tier) and the Cowboys 19th at -0.6 (Average tier) — a 1.1-point gap that home field widens to a 2.5-point line on the Texans, 57% to win. It rates as the 6th-widest of the 16 games in Week 4.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Texans offense grades +0.4 (16th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -4.6 (32nd) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+3.5, 3rd) meets the Texans defense (-0.4, 13th), a 4.0-point gap.

    Season-long, the model can barely split them: 7.3 projected wins for the Texans against 8.0 for the Cowboys, favored in 10 and 6 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 14th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Cowboys'.

    Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Cowboys' favour. They last met in 2024: Texans won 34-10 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Texans at 57% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Cowboys vs Texans on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU
    Market-implied (Texans)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Texans)
    60%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 60% for the Texans. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Where Cowboys vs Texans trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueTexansTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig57% 57cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Cowboys vs Texans, Week 4 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/cowboys-vs-texans-week-04-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

    Watch the breakdown: Cowboys vs Texans

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    Cowboys vs Texans — frequently asked

    Who won Cowboys vs Texans in Week 4?

    Dallas Cowboys 34, Houston Texans 30 — final, played Sunday, October 4, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Texans by 3 (60% to win), and the Cowboys won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Cowboys vs Texans before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Texans by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Cowboys. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Cowboys vs Texans?

    Texans offense (+0.4, 16th of 32) against Cowboys defense (-4.6, 32nd) — 5.0 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

    How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Texans?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 58c or below, or the Cowboys at 38c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Texans host the Cowboys?

    Dallas Cowboys visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.

    What does the model project for the Texans and Cowboys this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 7.3 wins (favored in 10) and the Cowboys at 8.0 (favored in 6). This game ranks 14th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Cowboys', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Cowboys vs Texans?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Cowboys vs Texans on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 4 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 57% on a team like the Texans?

    57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Texans at 57% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Texans to win worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 61% against a market price implying 59%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 60% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 59% on HOU — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    Next up for each team

    Cowboys: Week 5 vs BuccaneersModel line →Texans: Week 5 at TitansModel line →

    More Week 4 matchups

    Steelers at BrownsModel: Browns −2Colts at CommandersModel: Colts −5Titans at RavensModel: Ravens −7.5Patriots at BillsModel: Bills −2.5Jets at BearsModel: Bears −2.5Jaguars at BengalsModel: Jaguars −0.5Cardinals at GiantsModel: Cardinals −0.5Rams at EaglesModel: Rams −0.5Packers at BuccaneersModel: Packers −3.5Dolphins at VikingsModel: Vikings −5Chiefs at RaidersModel: Chiefs −0.5Chargers at SeahawksModel: Seahawks −8Broncos at 49ersModel: 49ers −3.5Lions at PanthersModel: evenFalcons at SaintsModel: Saints −2

    Full Week 4 board →Next: NFL Week 5 predictions →

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