Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 4, 2026 · NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 2.5 in Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans, NFL Week 4 2026 — 58% to win, and Texans 9th of 32, Cowboys 11th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Texans at 53c or below (or Cowboys at 37c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DAL
+1.4
HOU
+2.0
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Cowboys
42%
model win prob
Texans
58%
model win prob
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52%
Madden 27
48%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Texans at 53c or below, or the Cowboys at 37c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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What the model sees in Cowboys at Texans
The Cowboys travel to face the Texans in Week 4. Our power ratings put the Texans 9th of 32 at +2.0 (Playoff tier) and the Cowboys 11th at +1.4 (Playoff tier) — a 0.6-point gap that home field widens to a 2.5-point line on the Texans, 58% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 4.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Texans offense grades -1.3 (25th of 32) against a Cowboys defense at -3.5 (32nd) — 2.2 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cowboys offense (+4.1, 3rd) meets the Texans defense (+2.6, 1st), a 1.5-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 9.3 projected wins for the Texans against 8.8 for the Cowboys, favored in 12 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Cowboys'.
Recent history, for context only: 7 regular-season meetings since 2002, 4-3 in the Cowboys' favour. They last met in 2024: Texans won 34-10 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Texans are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Texans at 58% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 58% / 42% — the tradable window is narrow: Texans at 53c or below, Cowboys at 37c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Cowboys vs Texans on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU
- Market-implied (Texans)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Texans)
- 58%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Texans at 53c or below, or the Cowboys at 37c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Cowboys vs Texans trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Texans | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Cowboys vs Texans — frequently asked
Who is favored in Cowboys vs Texans in Week 4?
Our power-rating model favors the Texans by 2.5 points, a 58% win probability over the Cowboys. The Texans rate 9th of 32 (+2.0) and the Cowboys 11th (+1.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Cowboys vs Texans?
Texans offense (-1.3, 25th of 32) against Cowboys defense (-3.5, 32nd) — 2.2 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Cowboys vs Texans?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Texans at 53c or below, or the Cowboys at 37c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Texans host the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys visit the Houston Texans on Sunday, October 4, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 4, at NRG Stadium, Houston, TX.
What does the model project for the Texans and Cowboys this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Texans at 9.3 wins (favored in 12) and the Cowboys at 8.8 (favored in 11). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Texans' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Cowboys', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Cowboys vs Texans?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Texans at 53c or below or the Cowboys at 37c or below, off a 2.5-point line.
Can you trade Cowboys vs Texans on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 4 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT04DALHOU. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 58% on a team like the Texans?
57% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 55-60% range 797 times, and those teams won 57% of them. The Texans at 58% over the Cowboys sit in that band, off a 2.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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