New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears

Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 9 Chicago home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 37°F with 6 mph of wind, and 78% of them were at or below 40°F — the coldest in the sample read 29°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +1.5 for the Bears, -2.4 for the Saints, and lands on the Bears by 6.5 (68%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.

The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bears offense grades +1.9 (8th of 32) against a Saints defense at -0.5 (14th) — 2.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Saints offense (-1.6, 27th) meets the Bears defense (-0.9, 19th), a 0.7-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Bears +0.5 (14th of 32) to -0.3 (32nd).

Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bears at 8.9 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Saints at 7.7 (favored in 7) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Bears' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Saints'.

One team has owned this series: the Saints are 9-4 in 13 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 3 times in the playoffs. They last met in 2025: Bears won 26-14 in October. Over their last 4 meetings the Bears are 1-3. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 68% on the Bears here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.

Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV22NOCHI, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bears 68%, Saints 32%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bears contracts a buy at 63c or below and Saints contracts a buy at 27c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.