Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, January 3, 2027 · EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Jaguars by 6.5 in Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL Week 17 2026 — 67% to win, and Jaguars 6th of 32, Commanders 23rd. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Jaguars at 62c or below (or Commanders at 28c or below) is where the model would take a position.
WAS
-1.5
JAX
+2.6
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Commanders
33%
model win prob
Jaguars
67%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
44%
Madden 27
56%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Jaguars at 62c or below, or the Commanders at 28c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Commanders at Jaguars
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −13.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Jaguars −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Week 17 warning: what the Jaguars line does not know
Week 17 is where the standings start doing the talking, and the model does not know what either team will still be playing for. It prices the Jaguars by 6.5 (67%) from ratings alone — +2.6 for the Jaguars, -1.5 for the Commanders. Late-season numbers are the least reliable of the year for exactly that reason: a team that has locked its seed and a team with nothing left both play differently than the ratings assume. Treat this as a starting point, then check what is actually at stake.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Jaguars at 9.4 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3) — 1.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Jaguars' schedule and the 1st-hardest on the Commanders'. Nothing on the Commanders' schedule projects harder than this one.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Jaguars offense grades +1.7 (9th of 32) against a Commanders defense at -2.8 (29th) — 4.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Commanders offense (+1.0, 13th) meets the Jaguars defense (0.0, 9th), a 1.0-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Jaguars grade +0.9, 3rd in the league, against +0.4 (20th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
One team has owned this series: the Commanders are 5-1 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Commanders won 28-22 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Jaguars are 0-4. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 67% on the Jaguars here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Jaguars 67%, Commanders 33%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Jaguars contracts a buy at 62c or below and Commanders contracts a buy at 28c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Commanders vs Jaguars on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC
- Market-implied (Jaguars)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Jaguars)
- 67%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Jaguars at 62c or below, or the Commanders at 28c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Commanders vs Jaguars trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Jaguars | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Commanders vs Jaguars — frequently asked
Who is favored in Commanders vs Jaguars in Week 17?
Our power-rating model picks the Jaguars by 6.5 points, a 67% win probability over the Commanders, for a projected score of Jaguars 28, Commanders 22 on a ratings-implied 49.5-point total. The Jaguars rate 6th of 32 (+2.6) and the Commanders 23rd (-1.5); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Do Week 17 lines account for teams resting starters?
Ours does not. The model prices the Jaguars by 6.5 from 2026 power ratings and home field, with no knowledge of playoff seeding, elimination, or who is being held out. Late-season contracts often move on exactly that information, so treat this number as the ratings baseline and check what each team still has to play for before taking a position.
How do you take a position on Commanders vs Jaguars?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Jaguars at 62c or below, or the Commanders at 28c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Jaguars host the Commanders?
Washington Commanders visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, January 3, 2027 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 17, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL.
What does the model project for the Jaguars and Commanders this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Jaguars at 9.4 wins (favored in 11) and the Commanders at 7.6 (favored in 3). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Jaguars' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Commanders', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Commanders vs Jaguars?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Jaguars at 62c or below or the Commanders at 28c or below, off a 6.5-point line.
Can you trade Commanders vs Jaguars on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 17 game market is KXNFLGAME-27JAN03WASJAC. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 67% on a team like the Jaguars?
68% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 65-70% range 448 times, and those teams won 68% of them. The Jaguars at 67% over the Commanders sit in that band, off a 6.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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