Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills
Thursday, September 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 4.5 in Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 2 2026 — 62% to win, and Bills 4th of 32, Lions 8th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Bills at 57c or below (or Lions at 33c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DET
+2.4
BUF
+4.2
Lions
38%
model win prob
Bills
62%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUFhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Bills at 57c or below, or the Lions at 33c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bills at +4.2 (4th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Lions at +2.4 (8th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bills by 4.5 and 62% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Lions defense at +0.6 (7th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.2, 10th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 1.4-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Lions defense at +0.6 (7th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.2, 10th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 1.4-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.3 projected wins for the Bills against 9.8 for the Lions, favored in 13 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 7th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Lions'. Nothing on the Lions' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Lions are on a 4-day turnaround and the Bills are on a 4-day turnaround. The Lions come in off the Saints, the Bills off the Texans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Bills 62%, Lions 38%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Bills contracts a buy at 57c or below and Lions contracts a buy at 33c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Lions vs Bills in Week 2?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 4.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Lions. The Bills rate 4th of 32 (+4.2) and the Lions 8th (+2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Bills?
Bills offense (+4.0, 2nd of 32) against Lions defense (+0.6, 7th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Lions vs Bills?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 57c or below, or the Lions at 33c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, September 17, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 2, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.3 wins (favored in 13) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Lions', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Bills?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bills at 62% over the Lions sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.