Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills
Updated · market price
Thursday, September 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Quick Answer
As of September 13, 2026, Kalshi implies 61% for the Bills in Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Bills by 4 (63% to win) — a 2.7pp agreement. No actionable edge — we pass.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-13No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
DET
+2.5
BUF
+3.8
Our number and the market agree on this one — the gaps are elsewhere on the board. Get the full Week 2 card free, every game priced against our model.
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Lions
37%
model win prob
Bills
63%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
49%
Madden 27
51%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Lions at Bills
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
We agree with the market about the middle and disagree about the tail. The gap changes sign near -1.8.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 more rungsBills +14.5 → Bills +4.5 · outside our published band, market only
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills +3.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills +2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills +1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | NO → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −1.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −2.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −3.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −4.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −5.5 | 🔒 | — | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −6.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −7.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −9.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −10.5 | 🔒 | 🔒 | 🔒 | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bills −13.5 | 🔒 | outside range | — | YES → | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bills at +3.8 (4th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Lions at +2.5 (7th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bills by 4 and 63% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Lions defense at +0.7 (6th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 1.9-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.1 (2nd of 32) against a Lions defense at +0.7 (6th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+1.3, 10th) meets the Bills defense (-0.7, 16th), a 1.9-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.1 projected wins for the Bills against 9.8 for the Lions, favored in 13 and 13 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 7th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Lions'. Nothing on the Lions' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Lions are on a 4-day turnaround and the Bills are on a 4-day turnaround. The Lions come in off the Saints, the Bills off the Texans. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF contract implies 61% for the Bills against our 63% — a 2.7-point gap. That is inside our 5-point threshold, so we pass — the market and the model are telling the same story.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Bills on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF
- Market-implied (Bills)
- 61c · 61%
- Our model (Bills)
- 63%
- Model vs market
- +2.7pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 61c on the Bills is an implied 61% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 63%, a 2.7pp agreement. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Lions vs Bills trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Bills | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61% 61c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 62% 62c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 61% 61c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 61% 61c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Lions vs Bills — frequently asked
Who is favored in Lions vs Bills in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Bills by 4 points, a 63% win probability over the Lions, for a projected score of Bills 27, Lions 23 on a ratings-implied 49.4-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF market implies 61% for the Bills — a 2.7pp agreement with the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Bills?
Bills offense (+4.1, 2nd of 32) against Lions defense (+0.7, 6th) — 3.4 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Lions vs Bills?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Bills YES is quoted around 61c against our 63% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Bills host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, September 17, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 2, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
What does the model project for the Bills and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 10.1 wins (favored in 13) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 7th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Lions', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Bills?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF. The Bills YES contract sits around 61c, which is an implied 61% — against our model's 63%. That is a 2.7pp agreement, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Lions vs Bills on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Bills?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bills at 63% over the Lions sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Bills moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 63% against a market price implying 61%, an edge of +2.7 points. Model 63% vs market 61% on BUF. We pass — no position.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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