Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Thursday, September 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Lions

40%

model win prob

Bills

60%

model win prob

Model line

Bills −3.5

Kalshi (Bills)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Bills — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Detroit Lions+1.28thPlayoff

Buffalo Bills+2.25thPlayoff

The prediction-market read

In Week 2, the Detroit Lions travel to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Bills 5th of 32 (Playoff tier, +2.2) and the Lions 8th (Playoff tier, +1.2). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Bills by 3.5 — a 60% win probability for the Bills.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 60% (Bills) / 40% (Lions) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Lions vs Bills — frequently asked

Who is favored in Lions vs Bills in Week 2?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Bills by 3.5 points and gives them a 60% win probability over the Lions. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Lions vs Bills?

Home win probability 60% (Bills), away 40% (Lions). That comes from a power-rating differential of +1.1 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Bills rate 5th of 32 (Playoff tier), the Lions 8th (Playoff tier).

Can you trade Lions vs Bills on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.