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Home/NFL/Week 2/Lions vs Bills
Gridiron EdgeWeek 2 · 2026

Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41

Final. Bills' next game: Bills vs Ravens, Week 8 →

Updated · model ratings

Thursday, September 17, 2026 · Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY

Quick Answer

Final (Thursday, September 17, 2026): Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 5.5 (69% to win); the Bills won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Bills at 68c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

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Settled

Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41Final

Model call: HIT

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 5.5 (69% to win). The Bills won — that call landed.

Closing-line value on the Bills: +5c — we archived the Bills at 63c on Sep 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 68c on Sep 16. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Buffalo 41, Detroit 31: Josh Allen opened the new building with five touchdowns and the Bills never trailed

Buffalo scored on each of its first four possessions, led 21-0 inside the first eighteen minutes and 27-10 at the break, and Detroit never got closer than ten the rest of the way. Allen threw three touchdowns and ran for two in the first regular-season game at the new Highmark Stadium. James Cook ran for 135 on 21 carries, Buffalo converted nine of twelve third downs and went five-for-five in the red zone, and the seventy-two combined points cleared a closing total of 54.5 by seventeen and a half.

Lions 31—Bills 41

Final✓ Call hit

Two different claims live on this page and the honest version is that one of them is not ours. The chip grades our stored pre-game probability, which had Buffalo at 68.7%, and Buffalo won, so it reads a hit. That row is model_version v2.3-anchored-moneyline with the anchoring weight at zero, which means the fair margin is the market margin — the 68.7% is the closing number restated, and crediting the model for it would be crediting it for agreeing with a price it copied. The model’s own read is the separate figure on the same row: Buffalo by 3.9 points, roughly a 65% side. That read picked the right team and understated the result by six points; the market’s own 5.5 was closer and still four and a half light. The ledger carries no position on this game. There is no nfl_weekly_edges row for 2026_02_DET_BUF — the anchored probability sat on top of the Kalshi moneyline, nothing cleared the 2pp net-of-spread floor, and under the v2.3 rules the board withheld a recommendation and published the read in points instead. That is the system working as designed after Week 1, and it means there is no entry, no close and no CLV to report here. What did get published was editorial, and it split. Wednesday’s market read named the Lions moneyline at 32c as the site’s call on this game, sized as a two-point read against a 35% unanchored number; Detroit lost, so that call lost, and we are not going to quietly leave it off the page because it never became a ledger row. The other published call cashed, and unlike the moneyline it is a graded one. The over 54.5 went up as the Play of the Day at 51c. Seventy-two points settled it. The Kalshi contract finalized YES and the play graded a win at +49c gross, which is on the track record with everything else. The player board was the worst of it. Eight visible calls, all eight UNDERs, all eight lost: Dalton Kincaid under 49.5 and under 59.5 receiving yards against 95, James Cook under 69.5, under 79.5 and under 89.5 rushing yards against 135, Josh Allen under 2.5 passing touchdowns against three, and Allen under 29.5 and under 39.5 rushing yards against 69. That is not eight independent misses. Five of the eight were Buffalo skill players and every one of them was the same view expressed eight ways — a game script in which Buffalo stopped scoring; Buffalo scored on its first four drives, held the ball for 33:45 and ran for 203 yards against a Detroit front missing bodies, and the whole room broke together. Three Jared Goff passing-yards strikes also sit in the ledger and lost on his 327, and none of them count — pass_yds is suppressed, the board never showed them, and a call nobody could see is not a record either way. Thirteen surfaceable WATCH rows went four and nine and are graded apart, as always. Our projections were Cook 54.0 rushing, Allen 24.7 rushing and 1.6 passing touchdowns, Kincaid 49.5 receiving; the game was not close to any of them.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Bills −3 → Bills −5.5
Total
52.5 → 54.5
Moneyline
DET +136 / BUF −162 → DET +200 / BUF −245

The spread moved toward the side that won. The total rose 2 to 54.5; the game landed on 72.

How it happened

Q1

Allen scored the first points in the new stadium, then found Palmer wide open for 43

Buffalo took the opening drive into the end zone on a one-yard Allen run 5:51 into the quarter — the first regular-season touchdown in the $2.1 billion building across the street from the old one. The second possession ended with Joshua Palmer uncovered down the field for 43. Detroit did not score in the quarter and did not lead at any point in the game.

After one
Bills 14, Lions 0
Palmer
1 rec · 43 yds · 1 TD on 3 targets
Attendance
60,644 at Highmark Stadium

ESPN — AP recap

Q2

Two tight-end scores, a missed extra point, and a 27-10 half

Dawson Knox scored from a yard out to make it 21-0 with 11:48 left in the half, which is where the eight UNDERs on this board stopped being defensible. Jahmyr Gibbs answered with an eleven-yard catch, Dalton Kincaid scored from sixteen and Tyler Bass missed the extra point, and Jake Bates hit from 31 as the half expired. Buffalo had scored on four of its first five possessions.

Halftime
Bills 27, Lions 10
Kincaid
7 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD on 8 targets
Buffalo red zone
5 for 5 on the night

ESPN — box score

Q3

Detroit cut it to ten, and Allen took the answer back inside eight minutes

Amon-Ra St. Brown scored from two with 9:29 left in the quarter to make it 27-17, the first time the game looked like a game. Allen ran it in from two with 1:07 on the clock to restore the seventeen. Buffalo finished nine of twelve on third down against four of eleven for Detroit, which is the whole explanation for a 33:45 to 26:15 possession split.

After three
Bills 34, Lions 17
Third down
BUF 9/12 · DET 4/11
Allen
20/31 · 248 yds · 3 pass TD · 14 car · 69 rush yds · 2 rush TD

ESPN — box score

Q4

A three-and-out from the Detroit 10, and Cook put it away

Sam LaPorta scored from a yard with 10:53 to play for 34-24 and the Lions had the game inside two scores. Backed up at their own 10 on the next series, Detroit went three-and-out with Deone Walker tipping two Goff passes and Gibbs stopped for nothing. Cook ran in from a yard with 2:50 left for 41-24; St. Brown’s 27-yarder with 1:42 left closed it at 41-31 and pushed the combined total to seventy-two.

Cook
21 car · 135 yds · 1 TD
Buffalo rushing
203 yards on the night
Combined points
72 against a closing total of 54.5

ESPN — AP recap

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. result, pnl_cents and graded_at were null on every Week 2 row when this was written — grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every grade above is derived from the ESPN box score. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • There is no nfl_weekly_edges row for 2026_02_DET_BUF, and Wednesday’s article nonetheless named the Lions moneyline at 32c as "the site’s published call on this game". This recap cannot tell from the ledger whether that row was never written or was never meant to be one, and does not invent a position to resolve it. It reports the article’s call as an article’s call and the ledger as empty.
  • The AP recap and the ESPN box score disagree on two rushing lines: AP has Allen at 72 yards and Cook at 134, the box score has 69 and 135. Grades above are taken from the box score. No call above changes on either number — the relevant strikes were 39.5 and 89.5.
  • total_centre is NULL on the stored fair-value row, so the house holds no model total for this game. The 48.8-point figure that appeared in Wednesday’s article is a derivation off the published power ratings, retired from publication as a position on 2026-09-16, and is not the number any of the total contracts above were priced against.
  • The over 54.5 is graded at one price and one only: the Play of the Day went up at 51c, and 51c is what settled — a win at +49c gross. Any other number quoted for this contract elsewhere is not the ledger number and does not belong in the record.
  • ESPN’s summary carried no weather block for this game, so nothing here states conditions. Attendance is ESPN’s figure and is not independently confirmed.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price, and the prop grades are resolutions against the box score, not settlements read off the exchange.

Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Josh Allen opens the Bills’ new stadium with a 5-TD outing · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line

PMP · WK 2 MODEL LINE
Thu, Sep 17
AWAY DET +0.6
vs BUF -5.5
HOME BUF +2.3
Fair (books) · BUF 69% home win prob
Kalshi · BUF — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Orchard Park, NY PASS — no position

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Lions

31%

fair value (books)

Bills

69%

fair value (books)

Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →

49%

Madden 27

51%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

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The Ladder — Lions at Bills How to read the Ladder →

All ladders →

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Lions at BillsSpreadQB HOLD

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Lions at Bills Kalshi spread ladder for Week 2: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Lions–Bills spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Lions vs Bills power ratings (Week 2) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Detroit Lions+0.613thAverage
    Buffalo Bills+2.37thPlayoff

    Lions and Bills season outlook

    DETBUF
    Average wins9.711.2
    Make playoffs56%83%
    Win division19%55%
    Win Super Bowl3.3%7.2%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Lions vs Bills — player pages

    All players →

    Jahmyr Gibbs

    RB

    Amon-Ra St. Brown

    WR

    James Cook

    RB

    Josh Allen

    QB

    Jameson Williams

    WR

    DJ Moore

    WR

    Jared Goff

    QB

    Khalil Shakir

    WR

    Sam LaPorta

    TE

    Dalton Kincaid

    TE

    Dawson Knox

    Keon Coleman

    Brock Wright

    DET Lions D/ST

    Isaac TeSlaa

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Thursday night's number, and what would make it a position

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 — the graded call is above.

    Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills kicks off on Thursday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Bills at +2.3 (7th of 32, Playoff tier) against the Lions at +0.6 (13th, Average tier), which after home field comes out Bills by 4 and 61% to win.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.5 (1st of 32) against a Lions defense at -2.0 (24th) — 6.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Lions offense (+2.1, 9th) meets the Bills defense (-2.8, 28th), a 4.8-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Bills at 11.2 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Lions at 9.7 (favored in 9) — 1.6 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 13th-hardest game on the Bills' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Lions'.

    On the calendar, the Lions are on a 4-day turnaround and the Bills are on a 4-day turnaround. The Lions come in off the Saints, the Bills off the Texans. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.

    One team has owned this series: the Bills are 6-1 in 7 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2024: Bills won 48-42 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Bills are 4-0. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.

    Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 61% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Lions vs Bills on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF
    Market-implied (Bills)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Bills)
    held — QB pending
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 69% for the Bills. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track →

    Where Lions vs Bills trades Why the venues differ →

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueBillsTrade
    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
    Novig69% 69cOpen Novig →
    Polymarket.com (international)no captured price for this game — international bookInformational
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game — US exchangeSign-up offer →
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood →
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase →
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available — sign-up offer →Sign-up offer →

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

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    Watch the breakdown: Lions vs Bills

    Thursday Night Football preview: Bills - Lions #nfl #bills #lions — video thumbnailShortThursday Night Football preview: Bills - Lions #nfl #bills #lionsSep 16, 20262026 NFL Futures Board: Win Totals, Division Winners & MVP Odds | Fade The Field Ep. 16 — video thumbnail55:162026 NFL Futures Board: Win Totals, Division Winners & MVP Odds | Fade The Field Ep. 16Sep 8, 2026​Will the #detroitlions REGRESS in 2026? 🦁 #nfl Win Total #predictions — video thumbnailShort​Will the #detroitlions REGRESS in 2026? 🦁 #nfl Win Total #predictionsAug 11, 2026

    Lions vs Bills — frequently asked

    Who won Lions vs Bills in Week 2?

    Detroit Lions 31, Buffalo Bills 41 — final, played Thursday, September 17, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Bills by 5.5 (69% to win), and the Bills won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Lions vs Bills before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Bills by 5.5 points, a 69% win probability over the Lions. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What is the biggest mismatch in Lions vs Bills?

    Bills offense (+4.5, 1st of 32) against Lions defense (-2.0, 24th) — 6.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.

    How do you take a position on Lions vs Bills?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Bills at 67c or below, or the Lions at 29c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Bills host the Lions?

    Detroit Lions visit the Buffalo Bills on Thursday, September 17, 2026 — a Thursday game in NFL Week 2, at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.

    What does the model project for the Bills and Lions this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Bills at 11.2 wins (favored in 11) and the Lions at 9.7 (favored in 9). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Bills' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Lions', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Lions vs Bills?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Lions vs Bills on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP17DETBUF has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 61% on a team like the Bills?

    59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bills at 61% over the Lions sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Trade this game on Kalshi →Bills hub →Lions hub →Kalshi NFL hub →Week 2 edge board →NFL predictions hub →

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    Next up for each team

    Lions: Week 3 vs JetsModel line →Bills: Week 3 vs ChargersModel line →

    More Week 2 matchups

    Panthers at FalconsModel: Falcons −4Saints at RavensModel: Ravens −5.5Vikings at BearsModel: Bears −6Bengals at TexansModel: Texans −4Steelers at PatriotsModel: Patriots −7Packers at JetsModel: Packers −2.5Browns at BuccaneersModel: Buccaneers −4.5Eagles at TitansModel: Eagles −3Jaguars at BroncosModel: Broncos −0.5Raiders at ChargersModel: Chargers −6.5Seahawks at CardinalsModel: Seahawks −6Commanders at CowboysModel: Cowboys −4.5Dolphins at 49ersModel: 49ers −6.5Colts at ChiefsModel: Chiefs −2.5Giants at RamsModel: Rams −7.5

    Full Week 2 board →Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →

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