How Kalshi markets settle
Half the edge in prediction markets is knowing exactly how a contract resolves β which data print counts, the exact metric, the rounding, the date boundary. We read the official resolution rules of every series we track and write down the traps. One page per series, updated when the rules change.
Commodities
Resolves YES if the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the top of the window) is greater than or equal to the Pyth GOLD 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (15 minutes earlier), both in USD.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM ET on the settlement date is strictly above the strike, in USD/t.oz. Kalshi names the settlement source in series metadata as "Pyth - Gold".
6 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold at 5:00 PM EDT on the settlement date, as observed on the unnamed platform's chart, is strictly above the threshold of USD/t.oz.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the end of the 15-minute window (the minute ending at the settlement time) is at least (β₯) the Pyth SILVER 1-minute candlestick close price at the start of the 15-minute window (the minute 15 minutes prior), both in USD, on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver at 5:00 PM ET on the settlement date is strictly above the strike, in USD/t.oz. Kalshi names the settlement source in series metadata as "Pyth - Silver".
6 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver on the settlement date at 5:00 PM EDT is strictly above the threshold USD/troy oz.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the WTI crude oil daily settlement price (for the relevant contract month) on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold in USD per barrel.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the 1-minute candlestick close price of WTI Oil on Pyth (PYTHOIL) at the end of the settlement window is greater than or equal to the 1-minute candlestick close price of PYTHOIL at the start of that window, denominated in USD per unit.
4 resolution traps β
Crypto
Each contract resolves on the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour: YES if that average is above, below, or inside the contract's price range (depending on the variant). A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI ending just before the earlier settlement time on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps β
Each contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second prints of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) in the minute before the top of the hour is strictly above the strike at that hour. A new event settles every hour, around the clock, and the contract text names the hour (e.g. 5 PM EDT).
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI ending before the later window's cutoff is at least (β₯) the 60-second simple average ending before the earlier window's cutoff, both on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second ERTI prints in the 60 seconds before 8 AM EDT on the settlement date exceeds 2,439.99 (strictly above the threshold), as published by CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI).
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI ending before the later window's boundary is at least (β₯) the 60-second simple average ending before the earlier window's boundary, both on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' XRPUSDRTI ending just before the later settlement time is greater than or equal to the 60-second simple average ending just before the earlier settlement time (15 minutes prior) on the settlement date.
3 resolution traps β
Entertainment
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the nominated show wins Outstanding Comedy Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, and NO otherwise.
0 resolution traps β
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the nominated show wins Outstanding Drama Series at the 78th Emmy Awards.
0 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the nominated show wins Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series at the 78th Emmy Awards.
2 resolution traps β
Macro & economics
Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally adjusted CPI-U All Items Less Food and Energy (core CPI) month-over-month change for the relevant reference month exceeds the threshold (strictly above the threshold, e.g. strictly above 0.7%).
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the 12-month CPI change ending August 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the median projected federal funds rate for year-end 2026 in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) released at the settlement-date FOMC meeting is strictly above the threshold.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate, as published on the Federal Reserve's official website, is strictly greater than the threshold following the settlement-date FOMC meeting.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the month-over-month increase in total non-farm payroll employment reported in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for August 2026 exceeds the threshold (strictly above, not equal to).
3 resolution traps β
Sports
Weather & climate
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Austin station CLIAUS by The Weather Company falls within the specific range or direction defined for that contract (between-inclusive, strictly greater than, or strictly less than the threshold) on the designated settlement date.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago station CLIMDW on the settlement date meets the variant's threshold condition (between a range, strictly above, or strictly below the threshold) according to The Weather Company.
4 resolution traps β
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Denver station CLIDEN by The Weather Company falls within the specific range, above the threshold, or below the threshold defined for that contract's variant on its designated date.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles station CLILAX on the settlement date falls within the range, above the upper threshold, or below the lower threshold (depending on the variant) as reported by The Weather Company.
4 resolution traps β
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Miami station CLIMIA on the settlement date meets the variant's specific threshold condition (between a range, strictly greater than, or strictly less than the threshold), as reported by The Weather Company.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at New York City station CLINYC by The Weather Company meets the contract's specified condition (between a range, strictly above, or strictly below the threshold) on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta station CLIATL on the contract's settlement date falls within the contract's specified range or comparison threshold (inclusive or exclusive depending on variant), according to The Weather Company.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Boston station CLIBOS by The Weather Company meets the contract's specific threshold condition (between a range, strictly greater than, or strictly less than the threshold) for the designated date.
3 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas station CLIDFW on the contract's settlement date falls within the variant's specified range or threshold (between, strictly greater than, or strictly less than the threshold), per The Weather Company.
4 resolution traps β
Each contract in this series resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at Phoenix station CLIPHX, per The Weather Company, falls within the specific range, above the threshold, or below the threshold defined for that contract's settlement date.
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the number of hurricanes meeting the specified category threshold in the named Pacific basin, during the May 15βDecember 1 season, strictly exceeds the threshold count, as confirmed by the National Weather Service (or equivalent).
4 resolution traps β
Resolves YES if the number of named storms in the specified basin (Central Pacific: more than 7; Eastern Pacific: more than 26) is confirmed by the National Weather Service during the May 15βDecember 1 season.
4 resolution traps β
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "how it settles" mean on a prediction market?
Settlement is the rule that decides whether a contract pays $1 or $0. It names the exact data source, the exact metric, the exact window, and the rounding. Two contracts that look like the same question can settle differently β which is why the rule, not the headline, is what you are actually trading.
Why do resolution rules matter more than the price?
Because the price is public and the rule is not read. Most avoidable losses in prediction markets come from a contract resolving on a different print, a different station, or a different boundary than the trader assumed β not from being wrong about the world.
Where do these summaries come from?
Kalshi publishes the official resolution rules for every market. We read them daily and extract the settlement criterion in one sentence plus the non-obvious traps. Each page links the series so you can read the source rules yourself.
Is this the same as trading advice?
No. These pages describe how a contract resolves, not whether to take a position. Where we have a graded record on a series, the page shows it β wins, losses and net result β so you can judge the model rather than take our word for it.
Resolution summaries are our reading of Kalshiβs published rules, not a substitute for them β always read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only.