How Kalshi markets settle
Half the edge in prediction markets is knowing exactly how a contract resolves — which data print counts, the exact metric, the rounding, the date boundary. We read the official resolution rules of every series we track and write down the traps. One page per series, updated when the rules change.
Commodities
The contract resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold, observed at exactly the settlement time on the settlement date, is strictly above the threshold (in USD/t.oz).
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for silver at the specified time on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold (USD per troy ounce).
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the official daily settlement price for the named WTI crude oil futures contract on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold price in USD/Bbl.
3 resolution traps →
Crypto
The contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second BRTI prints in the minute ending at the settlement time falls strictly within the named price range (inclusive of both endpoints) on the named settlement date.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the 60-second simple average of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) immediately before the settlement time exceeds the threshold on the settlement date.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the simple average of the 60 one-second readings from CF Benchmarks' Ethereum Real-Time Index (ERTI) in the minute preceding the settlement time on the settlement date is strictly above the threshold price.
4 resolution traps →
Entertainment
The contract resolves YES if the named subject wins the Outstanding Comedy Series award at the specified Emmy Awards ceremony.
2 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the named subject wins the Outstanding Drama Series award at the specified Emmy Awards ceremony.
2 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the named subject wins the Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series Emmy at the specified Emmy Awards ceremony.
2 resolution traps →
Macro & economics
The contract resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted CPI-U for All Items less Food and Energy (core CPI) for the settlement month, as published by the BLS, shows a month-over-month increase strictly above the threshold.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the BLS-reported 12-month CPI change ending on the settlement month, rounded to one decimal place, is strictly greater than the threshold.
3 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website exceeds the threshold following the named FOMC meeting date.
3 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the BEA's Advance Estimate of real seasonally adjusted annualized GDP growth exceeds the threshold for the named period.
3 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the change in total non-farm payroll employment for the named month, as reported in the BLS Monthly Employment Situation Report, comes in strictly above the threshold.
3 resolution traps →
Sports
Weather & climate
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named station for the settlement date falls within the specified temperature range, as reported by The Weather Company.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named Chicago station on the settlement date is strictly less than the threshold, according to The Weather Company.
3 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named station for the settlement date strictly exceeds the threshold, as reported by The Weather Company.
3 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named Los Angeles station (CLILAX) exceeds the threshold on the settlement date, as reported by The Weather Company.
3 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named station for the settlement date falls within the specified °F range, according to The Weather Company as the sole data source.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named station for the settlement date falls within the specified degree-Fahrenheit range, according to The Weather Company as the sole data source.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named station on the settlement date falls within the specified degree-Fahrenheit range, per The Weather Company as the sole data source.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum daily temperature recorded at the named station for the settlement date falls within the specified °F range, according to The Weather Company data.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the maximum temperature recorded at the named station on the settlement date falls within the specified temperature range, according to The Weather Company as the sole data source.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the official maximum temperature for the named subject on the settlement date, as recorded by the specified station and sourced from The Weather Company, falls within the stated temperature range (inclusive of both bounds).
4 resolution traps →
This contract resolves YES if more than 1 hurricane (Category 1 or above) forms in the named basin during the defined season window, as confirmed by the designated weather authority.
4 resolution traps →
The contract resolves YES if the number of named storms in the named region exceeds the threshold during the defined season window, as confirmed by the National Weather Service or an equivalent authority.
3 resolution traps →
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "how it settles" mean on a prediction market?
Settlement is the rule that decides whether a contract pays $1 or $0. It names the exact data source, the exact metric, the exact window, and the rounding. Two contracts that look like the same question can settle differently — which is why the rule, not the headline, is what you are actually trading.
Why do resolution rules matter more than the price?
Because the price is public and the rule is not read. Most avoidable losses in prediction markets come from a contract resolving on a different print, a different station, or a different boundary than the trader assumed — not from being wrong about the world.
Where do these summaries come from?
Kalshi publishes the official resolution rules for every market. We read them daily and extract the settlement criterion in one sentence plus the non-obvious traps. Each page links the series so you can read the source rules yourself.
Is this the same as trading advice?
No. These pages describe how a contract resolves, not whether to take a position. Where we have a graded record on a series, the page shows it — wins, losses and net result — so you can judge the model rather than take our word for it.
Resolution summaries are our reading of Kalshi’s published rules, not a substitute for them — always read the contract before taking a position. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only.