Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, December 6, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Quick Answer
As of July 30, 2026, our model favors the Lions by 0 in Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons, NFL Week 13 2026 — 51% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 2.7 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06DETATL yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Falcons at 44c or below (or Lions at 46c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DET
+2.4
ATL
-0.3
Lions
51%
model win prob
Falcons
49%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26DEC06DETATLhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Falcons at 44c or below, or the Lions at 46c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Lions–Falcons is a coin flip on our numbers
There is almost nothing between these two on our numbers. The Falcons rate -0.3 (16th of 32), the Lions +2.4 (8th) — 2.7 points apart before home field, inside the error bar of any preseason rating. The split comes out 49%/51%, and this rates as the 1st-closest game of the 14 in Week 13. When the model has no opinion worth holding, the price has to supply the edge.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Falcons at 8.6 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13) — 1.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Falcons' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Lions'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Lions offense grades +1.2 (10th of 32) against a Falcons defense at -0.6 (17th) — 1.8 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Falcons offense (+0.2, 19th) meets the Lions defense (+0.6, 7th), a 0.4-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Lions +0.6 (11th of 32) to +0.1 (28th).
On the calendar, the Lions are on 10 days and the Falcons are on 7 days. The Lions come in off the Bears, the Falcons off the Vikings. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Recent history, for context only: 12 regular-season meetings since 2002, 7-5 in the Falcons' favour. They last met in 2023: Lions won 20-6 in September. Over their last 4 meetings the Falcons are 2-2. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Lions at 51% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26DEC06DETATL is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 49% / 51% — the tradable window is narrow: Falcons at 44c or below, Lions at 46c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Lions vs Falcons — frequently asked
Who is favored in Lions vs Falcons in Week 13?
Our power-rating model favors the Lions by 0 points, a 51% win probability over the Falcons. The Falcons rate 16th of 32 (-0.3) and the Lions 8th (+2.4); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26DEC06DETATL yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Falcons (-0.3, 16th) and Lions (+2.4, 8th) are only 2.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 49%/51%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Lions vs Falcons?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26DEC06DETATL on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Falcons at 44c or below, or the Lions at 46c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Falcons host the Lions?
Detroit Lions visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, December 6, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 13, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA.
What does the model project for the Falcons and Lions this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Falcons at 8.6 wins (favored in 8) and the Lions at 9.8 (favored in 13). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Falcons' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Lions', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 51% on a team like the Lions?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Lions at 51% over the Falcons sit in that band, off a 0-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.