Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Buccaneers

45%

model win prob

Falcons

55%

model win prob

Model line

Falcons −1.5

Kalshi (Falcons)

—

Edge

pending

Model favors the Falcons — Kalshi market opens closer to kickoff

KXNFLGAME lists this game one to two weeks out. The model read above is live; the market column fills in automatically when the contract opens.

Power-rating comparison

TeamRatingRankTier

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-0.417thAverage

Atlanta Falcons-1.122ndAverage

The prediction-market read

In Week 16, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to face the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA. Our DAEPA power-rating model rates the Falcons 22nd of 32 (Average tier, -1.1) and the Buccaneers 17th (Average tier, -0.4). After a 2.5-point home-field adjustment, the model lands on the Falcons by 1.5 — a 55% win probability for the Falcons.

Kalshi lists each game's winner market one to two weeks before kickoff, so the live price for this matchup isn't posted yet. When it opens we compare the implied probability to our 55% (Falcons) / 45% (Buccaneers) model split and flag any gap of five points or more as an edge.

This is a NFC South divisional game — both teams meet twice in 2026, and division results carry the tiebreakers that decide the NFC South race. Track the full division on the NFC South hub.

Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

Buccaneers vs Falcons — frequently asked

Who is favored in Buccaneers vs Falcons in Week 16?

Our DAEPA power-rating model favors the Falcons by 1.5 points and gives them a 55% win probability over the Buccaneers. Kalshi lists the game's win market one to two weeks before kickoff; the model line above is live now.

What does the model project for Buccaneers vs Falcons?

Home win probability 55% (Falcons), away 45% (Buccaneers). That comes from a power-rating differential of -0.8 plus 2.5 points home field, run through a Normal model (σ=13.5). The Falcons rate 22nd of 32 (Average tier), the Buccaneers 17th (Average tier).

Can you trade Buccaneers vs Falcons on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists each NFL game's winner market (KXNFLGAME), typically one to two weeks before kickoff, to traders in all 50 states. You take a yes/no position on a team that settles at $1 or $0 — no point spread, just the binary outcome.