Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Friday, November 27, 2026 · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Steelers by 1 in Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers, NFL Week 12 2026 — 52% to win, and effectively a toss-up — the teams are 1.7 rating points apart. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV27DENPIT yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Steelers at 47c or below (or Broncos at 43c or below) is where the model would take a position.
DEN
+1.2
PIT
-0.5
Broncos
48%
model win prob
Steelers
52%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV27DENPIThasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Steelers at 47c or below, or the Broncos at 43c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Broncos–Steelers is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Broncos rate +1.2 (13th of 32) against -0.5 for the Steelers (19th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.7-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Steelers anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 16 games in Week 12, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.2 projected wins for the Steelers against 9.0 for the Broncos, favored in 10 and 9 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 11th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Broncos'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Broncos offense grades +0.6 (16th of 32) against a Steelers defense at -0.5 (13th) — 1.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Steelers offense (-0.5, 21st) meets the Broncos defense (+0.4, 8th), a 0.9-point gap.
On the calendar, the Broncos are on a 5-day turnaround and the Steelers are on a 5-day turnaround. The Broncos come in off the Raiders, the Steelers off the Eagles. None of that is in the model line — our rating model prices teams and home field, nothing else — so rest and travel are yours to weigh on top of the number, not inside it.
Scheduling note: this is a Friday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Steelers at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV27DENPIT is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 52% / 48% — the tradable window is narrow: Steelers at 47c or below, Broncos at 43c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Broncos vs Steelers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Broncos vs Steelers in Week 12?
Our power-rating model favors the Steelers by 1 points, a 52% win probability over the Broncos. The Steelers rate 19th of 32 (-0.5) and the Broncos 13th (+1.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV27DENPIT yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Steelers (-0.5, 19th) and Broncos (+1.2, 13th) are only 1.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 52%/48%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Broncos vs Steelers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV27DENPIT on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Steelers at 47c or below, or the Broncos at 43c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Steelers host the Broncos?
Denver Broncos visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Friday, November 27, 2026 — a Friday game in NFL Week 12, at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA.
What does the model project for the Steelers and Broncos this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Steelers at 8.2 wins (favored in 10) and the Broncos at 9.0 (favored in 9). This game ranks 11th-hardest on the Steelers' schedule and 6th-hardest on the Broncos', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Steelers?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Steelers at 52% over the Broncos sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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