Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Updated · market price
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
As of September 13, 2026, Kalshi implies 74% for the Buccaneers in Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL Week 2 2026, while our model has the Buccaneers by 4 (63% to win) — a 10.3pp gap. Value side: the Browns.
Kickoff board
Week 2 · 2026-09-131 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 10.3pp on Browns moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
CLE
-2.3
TB
-0.6
Browns
37%
model win prob
Buccaneers
63%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
38%
Madden 27
62%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Browns at Buccaneers
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −6.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −7.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −9.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −10.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −13.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
| Buccaneers −14.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed |
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Browns at Buccaneers
The Browns travel to face the Buccaneers in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Buccaneers 18th of 32 at -0.6 (Average tier) and the Browns 26th at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) — a 1.7-point gap that home field widens to a 4-point line on the Buccaneers, 63% to win. It rates as the 16th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Buccaneers grade -1.1 on that side of the ball (20th of 32) against a Browns offense at -4.0 (31st) — 2.8 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (+0.4, 18th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 1.4-point gap.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 8.3 projected wins for the Buccaneers against 7.8 for the Browns, favored in 7 and 6 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 16th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Browns'.
One team has owned this series: the Buccaneers are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Browns won 23-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Buccaneers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 63% on the Buccaneers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB contract implies 74% for the Buccaneers against our 63% — a 10.3-point gap. That clears our 5-point threshold, which flags the Browns as the value side at 26c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Browns vs Buccaneers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB
- Market-implied (Buccaneers)
- 74c · 74%
- Our model (Buccaneers)
- 63%
- Model vs market
- -10.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 74c on the Buccaneers is an implied 74% — no odds conversion needed. Our model has 63%, a 10.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Browns vs Buccaneers trades
2 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Buccaneers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 74% 74c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 73% 73c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 74% 74c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 74% 74c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Browns vs Buccaneers — frequently asked
Who is favored in Browns vs Buccaneers in Week 2?
Our power-rating model picks the Buccaneers by 4 points, a 63% win probability over the Browns, for a projected score of Buccaneers 22, Browns 18 on a ratings-implied 39.7-point total. Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB market implies 74% for the Buccaneers — a 10.3pp gap versus the model.
What is the biggest mismatch in Browns vs Buccaneers?
Browns offense (-4.0, 31st of 32) against Buccaneers defense (-1.1, 20th) — 2.8 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Browns vs Buccaneers?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Buccaneers YES is quoted around 74c against our 63% model number. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Buccaneers host the Browns?
Cleveland Browns visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
What does the model project for the Buccaneers and Browns this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 8.3 wins (favored in 7) and the Browns at 7.8 (favored in 6). This game ranks 16th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 4th-hardest on the Browns', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Browns vs Buccaneers?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB. The Buccaneers YES contract sits around 74c, which is an implied 74% — against our model's 63%. That is a 10.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Browns vs Buccaneers on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 2 game market is KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 63% on a team like the Buccaneers?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Buccaneers at 63% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 4-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Browns moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 37% against a market price implying 27%, an edge of +10.3 points. Model 37% vs market 27% on CLE. We rate it attack, sized at 3.5% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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