Updated · model ratings
Sunday, September 20, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, September 20, 2026): Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 — NFL Week 2, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Buccaneers by 8 (76% to win); the Browns won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Buccaneers at 79c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19Final
Model call: MISSOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Buccaneers by 8 (76% to win). The Browns won — that call missed.
Closing-line value on the Buccaneers: -1c — we archived the Buccaneers at 80c on Sep 14; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 79c on Sep 20. The market moved against our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 3 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
Deshaun Watson went 24 of 30 for 238 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover — his best game since September 2023 — and threw the go-ahead 17-yarder to Blake Whiteheart with 3:51 left. Tampa Bay was driving at the Cleveland 28 when lightning stopped the game at the two-minute warning for two hours and twelve minutes; it resumed in heavy rain, a holding penalty pushed the Buccaneers back, and Baker Mayfield’s fourth-and-10 throw to Emeka Egbuka in the end zone was out of reach. Cleveland was an eight-and-a-half-point underdog at the close.
Browns 23—Buccaneers 19
Final✗ Call missedThe mirror image of the Eagles-Titans page, and both halves get stated. The chip grades the stored probability, which had Tampa Bay at 76.1% — the market’s number, anchored at weight zero from an 8-point margin — and Tampa Bay lost, so the chip reads a miss. The published position was Cleveland, and it won. The ledger carries 2026_02_CLE_TB_moneyline, a MODERATE position at ticker KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB-CLE: the model’s own margin was Tampa Bay by 4.3 against a market at 7.5, a 3.2-point lean toward the Browns that put their fair probability at 25.3% against a Kalshi price of 21.5c, a 3.8-point edge. It was entered at 21.5c on the morning of the game (2026-09-20 12:07 UTC), the last archived price before kickoff was the same 21.5c for zero CLV, and Cleveland won outright. So the page shows a chip that missed on a number the model did not generate and a position that won on a number it did — the model still had the wrong team, and the position was never a call that Cleveland would win; it was a call that 21.5c was too cheap for a team that would win about a quarter of the time, and this was one of the quarter. The player board had a clean afternoon here: Jerry Jeudy under 2.5 receptions at 48.5c cleared on none, Mayfield under 1.5 passing touchdowns at 50.5c and under 2.5 at 22.5c both cleared on one, and Bucky Irving over 3.5 receptions at 24.5c, STRONG, cleared on exactly four — visible calls four for four. Three Mayfield passing-yards unders also sit in the ledger and would have cleared on his 182; they do not count, pass_yds is suppressed. Fourteen WATCH rows went ten and four and are graded apart.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread moved toward the side that lost. The total fell 1 to 41.5; the game landed on 42.
Q1
Chase McLaughlin opened with a 59-yarder, Andre Szmyt answered from 50, and McLaughlin hit from 45 with 4:02 left for 6-3. The two kickers would go seven for seven between them on the day. Tampa Bay reached the red zone four times and came away with one touchdown.
Q3
Trailing 9-6 at the half, Mayfield willed the opening drive of the third quarter into the end zone — a stiff-arm for a first down on third-and-9, then a sack escaped and a five-yard throw to Egbuka, who had slipped and made the catch from the turf, for 16-6 with 9:33 left. It was Tampa Bay’s only touchdown. Mayfield finished 21 of 34 for 182 with the touchdown and an interception.
Q3
Szmyt’s 34-yarder cut it to 16-9 with 3:45 left in the third, and with 1:23 to go Watson hit Boston on a slant; he broke three tackles and finished a 55-yard touchdown for 16-16. Boston finished with five catches for 95. Cleveland managed 44 rushing yards on 23 carries and did not need them.
Q4
McLaughlin’s second 31-yarder put Tampa Bay up 19-16 with 9:58 left. Watson converted four third downs on the answer and found Whiteheart from 17 with 3:51 to play for 23-19. The Buccaneers had second-and-4 at the Cleveland 28 when the game was suspended at the two-minute warning; when it resumed, in heavy rain, Irving ran twice and a Mayfield throw to Ted Hurst reached the 13 before a holding penalty. From the 20, fourth-and-10, the throw to Egbuka was out of his reach.
Reporting verified 2026-09-20. Further sources: ESPN — AP recap: Deshaun Watson outplays Baker Mayfield, leading the Browns to a 23-19 win over the Buccaneers · ESPN — box score · ESPN — core odds, opening and closing DraftKings line
Two 0-1 teams meet at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET, and both arrive from losses that broke in opposite ways: Cleveland's defense surrendered scores on six of Jacksonville's first seven drives, while Tampa Bay lost four fumbles and still finished within a touchdown at Cincinnati ([247Sports](https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/longformarticle/-takeaways-from-browns-34-10-loss-to-the-jags-that-was-not-that-close-d-gives-up-six-scores-in-first-7-drives-289913089/), [Buccaneers.com](https://www.buccaneers.com/news/browns-buccaneers-top-storylines-key-matchups-in-week-two-2026)). Myles Garrett is no longer a Brown — he was traded to the Rams in the offseason for edge rusher Jared Verse and three picks ([NFL.com](https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-network-browns-trading-myles-garrett-to-rams-jared-verse)). Deshaun Watson keeps the Cleveland job for Week 2 despite the opener, and Baker Mayfield faces the franchise that drafted him first overall ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/sports/nfl/browns-announce-week-2-quarterback-decision-on-deshaun-watson-12440899), [Buccaneers.com](https://www.buccaneers.com/news/2026-game-preview-browns-buccaneers-week-2)).
Browns pass rush · Buccaneers protection
This is the Garrett trade made literal — Cleveland's return piece lining up against the best left tackle in the league. Verse is listed at right defensive end on Cleveland's chart, which puts him across from Wirfs on base downs. Tampa Bay's own preview frames this as the game's marquee trench duel, citing Verse's 80 pressures last season. Verse was quiet in the opener with four tackles and a tackle for loss, and Cleveland managed one sack as a team.
Source: Buccaneers.com — 5 Bucs to Watch
Buccaneers pass rush · Browns protection
Cleveland rebuilt its entire offensive line this offseason — a first-round rookie at left tackle, two free-agent signings, a trade acquisition and a third-round rookie who has taken the starting right guard job outright — and it graded 30th in PFF's Week 1 line rankings after allowing five sacks in Jacksonville. But Tampa Bay's front did not look dangerous either: the Bucs managed one sack against Cincinnati, and it came from a rookie inside linebacker, not the edge group they invested in. Rookie right guard Austin Barber was Cleveland's highest-graded lineman in the opener at 82.6.
Source: PFF 2026 OL rankings
Buccaneers passing game · Browns coverage
Tampa Bay's own preview names this as the headline coverage matchup. Ward was Cleveland's one genuinely excellent defender in the opener, posting a 90.5 PFF grade with a 90.8 coverage mark plus five tackles and a forced fumble. Egbuka led the Bucs with 63 receiving yards on five catches at Cincinnati. Ward is listed at left cornerback, so he does not automatically travel; Egbuka is listed as the WR3/slot-capable piece on the Week 2 chart, which complicates a pure side-by-side read.
Browns passing game · Buccaneers coverage
Tampa Bay's Week 2 chart lists Zyon McCollum at left corner and Jacob Parrish at right corner, with Benjamin Morrison and rookie Keionte Scott behind them. Parrish has a back sprain and was a limited participant Wednesday and Thursday; Todd Bowles called it soreness and day-to-day. Morrison filled in at Cincinnati and allowed 34 yards on seven targets, and Tampa Bay's own preview pairs him with Cleveland rookie KC Concepcion. Cleveland's receiver room is young — rookie Denzel Boston caught a 46-yard touchdown in the opener, and Jerry Jeudy was the target on Watson's interception.
Buccaneers run game · Browns run defense
Irving is unambiguously the lead back and the passing-game back: he out-snapped Kenneth Gainwell 62% to 46% in Week 1 and took a 26% target share to Gainwell's 4%. He turned eight carries into 45 yards (5.6 per carry) and added seven catches for 48 yards. Cleveland allowed 126 rushing yards in Jacksonville, and Tampa's own preview sets Irving against Schwesinger, the 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year. The caveat cuts against Tampa: the Bucs ran for just 89 yards as a team because three straight lost fumbles took the game away from them.
Browns run game · Buccaneers run defense
Judkins is the clear RB1 on the depth chart in Cleveland ahead of Raheim Sanders and Jaleel McLaughlin, but he got nothing going in the opener — 12 carries for 33 yards, with Deshaun Watson leading the team in rushing at 38 yards. Cleveland's 87 team rushing yards came behind a line that was starting a rookie at left tackle and a rookie at right guard. Tampa Bay's interior is Vita Vea flanked by Calijah Kancey and A'Shawn Robinson, with Trotter — who had 10 tackles, two for loss, a sack and a pick-six in his debut — behind them.
Buccaneers pass offense · Browns pass defense
Mayfield was accurate at Cincinnati — 23 of 28 for 216 yards plus a rushing touchdown — but was sacked four times and fumbled three times. Otton is a near-every-down piece, playing 56 of 57 offensive snaps and running 31 routes on 36 dropbacks, though he only caught three of five targets for 26 yards. Cleveland's first-year coordinator Mike Rutenberg watched Trevor Lawrence throw four touchdowns on an 18-of-23, 245-yard, 150.6-rating line, with three of the scores uncontested at the catch point. Mike Evans is not part of this — he signed with San Francisco in March after 12 seasons in Tampa.
Reporting verified 2026-09-18. Further sources: Buccaneers.com — 5 Bucs to Watch · Cleveland Browns — 10 numbers · PFF 2026 OL rankings · Buccaneers.com — Top Storylines Week 2 · BrownsZone — revamped OL · Yahoo Sports — Browns Week 1 PFF grades · Buccaneers.com — Week 2 depth chart · Buccaneers.com — Week 2 injury report Sept. 17 · PewterReport — Bucs Intel Week 2 · DraftSharks — Irving vs. Gainwell Week 1 split · FOX Sports box score — CLE at JAX · Buccaneers.com — Week 1 recap
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
CLE
-0.9
TB
-0.6
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Browns
24%
fair value (books)
Buccaneers
76%
fair value (books)
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38%
Madden 27
62%
Madden 27
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 — the graded call is above.
The Browns travel to face the Buccaneers in Week 2. Our power ratings put the Buccaneers 20th of 32 at -0.6 (Average tier) and the Browns 23rd at -0.9 (Average tier) — a 0.3-point gap that home field widens to a 4.5-point line on the Buccaneers, 62% to win. It rates as the 12th-widest of the 16 games in Week 2.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Buccaneers grade -0.1 on that side of the ball (12th of 32) against a Browns offense at -2.4 (29th) — 2.3 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Buccaneers offense (-0.7, 24th) meets the Browns defense (+1.4, 3rd), a 2.1-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Buccaneers at 6.9 wins (favored in 8 of 17) and the Browns at 8.9 (favored in 8) — 2.0 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 15th-hardest game on the Buccaneers' schedule and the 5th-hardest on the Browns'.
One team has owned this series: the Buccaneers are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Browns won 23-17 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Buccaneers are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Buccaneers here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
There is no market to compare against yet — Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB — and we are not going to invent a price. What the model will say when it opens: Buccaneers YES is only worth buying at 74c or below, which is a demanding ask on a side the model already has at 76%. The likelier position on a game this lopsided is the Browns at 22c or below, where the payoff does the work. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 76% for the Buccaneers. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Buccaneers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 78% 78c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 — final, played Sunday, September 20, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Buccaneers by 8 (76% to win), and the Browns won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Buccaneers by 8 points, a 76% win probability over the Browns. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Browns offense (-2.4, 29th of 32) against Buccaneers defense (-0.1, 12th) — 2.3 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Buccaneers at 74c or below, or the Browns at 22c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Cleveland Browns visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 2, at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Buccaneers at 6.9 wins (favored in 8) and the Browns at 8.9 (favored in 8). This game ranks 15th-hardest on the Buccaneers' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Browns', by win probability.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Buccaneers at 74c or below or the Browns at 22c or below, off a 4.5-point line.
This game has been played, so the Week 2 market KXNFLGAME-26SEP20CLETB has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Buccaneers at 62% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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Lions at BillsBills −4
Panthers at FalconsFalcons −4
Saints at RavensRavens −5.5
Vikings at BearsBears −6
Bengals at TexansTexans −4
Steelers at PatriotsPatriots −7
Packers at JetsPackers −2.5
Eagles at TitansEagles −3
Jaguars at BroncosBroncos −0.5
Raiders at ChargersChargers −6.5
Seahawks at CardinalsSeahawks −6
Commanders at CowboysCowboys −4.5
Dolphins at 49ers49ers −6.5
Colts at ChiefsChiefs −2.5
Giants at RamsRams −7.5The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
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One of 64 games in the first-quarter report
Every Week 1–4 game, with the opening and closing line, in one book. Read the report →
