Bills vs Vikings Prediction — Week 9, Mon Nov 9
Updated · market price
Monday, November 9, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of October 30, 2026, Kalshi implies 45% for the Vikings in Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 9 2026, while the market line has the Bills by 2.5 (59% to win) — a 3.3pp gap. Value side: the Bills. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Vikings by 1.0 against a market line of Bills by 2.5 — a 3.3-point lean toward the Vikings, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →
Week 9 · 2026-10-301 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 3.3pp on Bills moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
BUF
+2.3
MIN
+0.6
Bills
59%
fair value (books)
Vikings
41%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game → Whose number this is →
54%
Madden 27
46%
Madden 27
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The Ladder — Bills at Vikings How to read the Ladder →
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Bills vs Vikings power ratings (Week 9) What PWR measures →
Bills and Vikings season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Bills vs Vikings — player pages
All players →James Cook
RB
Justin Jefferson
WR
Josh Allen
QB
DJ Moore
WR
Jordan Mason
RB
Jordan Addison
WR
Kyler Murray
QB
Dalton Kincaid
TE
Aaron Jones
RB
Khalil Shakir
WR
Jauan Jennings
WR
T.J. Hockenson
TE
Keon Coleman
Ty Johnson
Gavin Bartholomew
BUF Bills D/ST
Dawson Knox
Jackson Hawes
Joshua Palmer
Keleki Latu
Ray Davis
MIN Vikings D/ST
Tai Felton
One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Bills–Vikings is a coin flip on our numbers
The better team here is the visitor, and it still is not favored. The Bills rate +2.3 (7th of 32) against +0.6 for the Vikings (14th) — but 2.5 points of home field is larger than the 1.7-point gap between them, so the model lands at 52% for the Vikings anyway. That is the whole story of this line: venue, not talent. It rates as the 3rd-closest of the 15 games in Week 9, and a game this tight is decided by the price, not the model.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 11.6 projected wins for the Vikings against 11.2 for the Bills, favored in 10 and 11 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 9th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bills'.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.5 (1st of 32) against a Vikings defense at +2.4 (1st) — 2.1 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.4, 30th) meets the Bills defense (-2.8, 28th), a 0.4-point gap.
Scheduling note: this is a Monday game — the only one on the schedule that day — so it sits outside the main Sunday slate.
One team has owned this series: the Bills are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Vikings won 33-30 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Vikings at 52% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN contract implies 45% for the Vikings against a fair value (books) of 41% — a 3.3-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Bills as the value side at 56c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Vikings on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN
- Market-implied (Vikings)
- 45c · 45%
- Fair value — books (Vikings)
- 41%
- Fair value vs market
- -3.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 45c on the Vikings is an implied 45% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 41%, a 3.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Bills vs Vikings line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Bills −3 (DraftKings). The median across 5 books now is the Bills −2.5. On Kalshi the Bills trade at 55¢ to win, a 55% implied chance.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Bills −3 · O/U 48.5Sep 13 | Bills −2.5 · O/U 47.5 | |
| FanDuel | Bills −2.5 · O/U 48.5Oct 27 | Bills −2.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Caesars | Bills −3.5 · O/U 49.5Sep 13 | Bills −2.5 · O/U 47.5 | |
| BetRivers | Bills −2.5 · O/U 48Oct 27 | Bills −2.5 · O/U 48 | |
| Novig | Bills −2.5 · —Oct 27 | Bills −2.5 · O/U 48.5 | |
| Kalshi | a contract, not a spread | Bills 55¢ to win |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. “Earliest line we archived” is our first capture, which is not necessarily the market’s open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchange’s own moneyline contract.
Where Bills vs Vikings trades Why the venues differ →
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Vikings | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 45% 45c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 45% 45c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket USPolymarketPartnerUS exchange — separate book | 45% 45c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 45% 45c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 45% 45c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Kalshi vs Polymarket US: Bills at Vikings
Same contracts on both venues · cost to buy after fees · as of 11:12 AM ET
| Game lines | Kalshi11:14 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner11:12 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills to win | 57¢58.7¢ after fees | 55.8¢57.5¢ after fees | Polymarket US1.3¢ less |
| Vikings to win | 46¢47.7¢ after fees | 45.8¢47.5¢ after fees | Even |
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US lists 400 other markets for this game that we haven’t matched to a Kalshi contract (first score, first touchdown, double result, exact margin, race to points).
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same question: the same team, the same line, the same player, stat and threshold. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 6.95% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max $1.74 per 100. The best-price column compares those costs; it needs a two-sided book on both venues, and a price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
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Watch the breakdown: Bills vs Vikings
Bills vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who will win Vikings vs Bills?
The market line has the Bills at 59% to beat the Vikings in Week 9.
Who is favored in Bills vs Vikings in Week 9?
The market line has the Bills by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Vikings (our model's own line: Vikings by 1). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN market implies 45% for the Vikings — a 3.3pp gap versus the market line.
Why does the model call this a toss-up?
Because the Vikings (+0.6, 14th) and Bills (+2.3, 7th) are only 1.7 rating points apart. The 2.5-point home-field adjustment is larger than the gap between the teams, so home field is effectively the entire margin and the split lands at 41%/59%. In games like this the model is not the deciding input — the contract price is.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Vikings?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. Vikings YES is quoted around 45c against a fair value (books) of 41%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on Monday, November 9, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 9, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 11.6 wins (favored in 10) and the Bills at 11.2 (favored in 11). This game ranks 9th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 5th-hardest on the Bills', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Bills vs Vikings?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN. The Vikings YES contract sits around 45c, which is an implied 45% — against our books-anchored fair value of 41%. That is a 3.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Bills vs Vikings on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 9 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 52% on a team like the Vikings?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Vikings at 52% over the Bills sit in that band, off a 1-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Bills vs Vikings ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
Is Bills moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 56%, an edge of +3.3 points. Model 59% vs market 55% on BUF. We rate it a position, sized at 1.8% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
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After this one
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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