Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings
Monday, November 9, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Quick Answer
As of August 1, 2026, our model favors the Bills by 4.5 in Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 9 2026 — 62% to win, and Vikings 27th of 32, Bills 4th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Vikings at 33c or below (or Bills at 57c or below) is where the model would take a position.
BUF
+4.2
MIN
-2.6
Bills
62%
model win prob
Vikings
38%
model win prob
KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMINhasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Vikings at 33c or below, or the Bills at 57c or below — a five-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
Power-rating comparison
Monday night's number, and what would make it a position
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings kicks off on Monday — the only game on the schedule that day. The model's read: the Vikings at -2.6 (27th of 32, Average tier) against the Bills at +4.2 (4th, Playoff tier), which after home field comes out Bills by 4.5 and 62% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 4.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 2.3-point gap.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Bills offense grades +4.0 (2nd of 32) against a Vikings defense at -0.5 (16th) — 4.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Vikings offense (-2.5, 29th) meets the Bills defense (-0.2, 11th), a 2.3-point gap.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4 of 17) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13) — 3.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 6th-hardest game on the Vikings' schedule and the 8th-hardest on the Bills'.
One team has owned this series: the Bills are 4-2 in 6 regular-season meetings since 2002. They last met in 2022: Vikings won 33-30 in November. Over their last 4 meetings the Vikings are 2-2. Worth saying plainly — the model does not know any of that. It reads 2026 ratings and nothing else, so a lopsided series is a story, not a number on this page.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favourites went 59%. The 62% on the Bills here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Vikings 38%, Bills 62%. Applying our five-point threshold, that makes Vikings contracts a buy at 33c or below and Bills contracts a buy at 57c or below — anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Bills vs Vikings — frequently asked
Who is favored in Bills vs Vikings in Week 9?
Our power-rating model favors the Bills by 4.5 points, a 62% win probability over the Vikings. The Vikings rate 27th of 32 (-2.6) and the Bills 4th (+4.2); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Bills vs Vikings?
Bills offense (+4.0, 2nd of 32) against Vikings defense (-0.5, 16th) — 4.6 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game.
How do you take a position on Bills vs Vikings?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Vikings at 33c or below, or the Bills at 57c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Vikings host the Bills?
Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on Monday, November 9, 2026 — a Monday game in NFL Week 9, at U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.
What does the model project for the Vikings and Bills this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Vikings at 7.1 wins (favored in 4) and the Bills at 10.3 (favored in 13). This game ranks 6th-hardest on the Vikings' schedule and 8th-hardest on the Bills', by model win probability.
How often does the model win when it is 62% on a team like the Bills?
59% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 60-65% range 666 times, and those teams won 59% of them. The Bills at 62% over the Vikings sit in that band, off a 4.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
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