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Home/NFL/Week 9/Bills vs Vikings
Gridiron EdgeWeek 9 Β· 2026

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings

Updated Β· model ratings

Line held β€” QB decision pending

Monday, November 9, 2026 Β· U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Quick Answer

Line held: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 9 2026. We don't publish a model line, lean or pick until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, and one isn't yet. This updates the moment both starters are confirmed.

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Win probability held until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed.

Run this matchup yourself β†’ Full PWR board for all 32 β†’ Player prop gaps for this game β†’

54%

Madden 27

46%

Madden 27

Run the numbers yourself

All tools β†’
Price GapsPROWhere the best price is right now β€” Kalshi vs Polymarket vs the books.β†’Combo Edge BuilderFREEPrice a same-game combo for this slate β€” true joint probability, free, no leg cap.β†’NFL Win ProbabilityFREETurn any spread and total into a win probability and projected score.β†’Prop BoardLIVEEvery listed player prop, model number against the Kalshi price.β†’

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The Ladder β€” Bills at Vikings

All ladders β†’

Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Bills at VikingsSpreadQB HOLD

Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.

    Market
    β€”

    The starting quarterback is not confirmed, so we publish no model number on this game. The market prices are shown as they are.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100Β’
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; β€œpays” is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
    Go Pro Β· $150/yr, $111 your first year β†’

    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β€” a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

    Share this Oracle Ladder

    Bills at Vikings Kalshi spread ladder for Week 9: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Bills–Vikings spread ladder β€” free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Bills vs Vikings power ratings (Week 9)

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Buffalo Bills+2.46thPlayoff
    Minnesota Vikings+0.015thAverage

    Bills and Vikings season outlook

    BUFMIN
    Average wins10.910.9
    Make playoffs77%76%
    Win division43%44%
    Win Super Bowl6.3%4.1%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β€” real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β†’

    Line held until the starting QB is known

    Line held: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 9 2026. We don't publish a model line, lean or pick until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, and one isn't yet. This updates the moment both starters are confirmed. Quarterback is the one input big enough to swamp every other term in a game line, so we don't post a number until we know who's throwing.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β€” you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Bills vs Vikings on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN
    Market-implied (Vikings)
    not listed yet
    Our ratings line (Vikings)
    held β€” QB pending
    Model vs market
    β€”

    Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV09BUFMIN yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Vikings at 32c or below, or the Bills at 58c or below β€” a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.

    Every Kalshi NFL market we track β†’

    Where Bills vs Vikings trades

    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

    VenueVikingsTrade
    Kalshinot listed on Kalshi yet β€” opens week of the gameTrade on Kalshi β†’
    Novignot yet listed on Novig β€” $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our linkSign-up offer β†’
    Polymarketno captured price for this game β€” international bookSign-up offer β†’
    Polymarket USno captured price for this game β€” US exchangeSign-up offer β†’
    Robinhoodsame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Robinhood β†’
    Coinbasesame Kalshi contractsame Kalshi contract, not listed yetOpen Coinbase β†’
    DraftKings Predictionsprice not available β€” sign-up offer β†’Sign-up offer β†’
    FanDuel Predictsprice not available β€” sign-up offer β†’Sign-up offer β†’
    Fanatics Marketsprice not available β€” sign-up offer β†’Sign-up offer β†’

    A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.

    Embed this game on your site

    A live tile locked to Bills vs Vikings, Week 9 β€” our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" β€” for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

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    Watch the breakdown: Bills vs Vikings

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    Bills vs Vikings β€” frequently asked

    Who is favored in Bills vs Vikings, NFL Week 9 2026?

    Line held: Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings, NFL Week 9 2026. We don't publish a model line, lean or pick until both starting quarterbacks are confirmed, and one isn't yet. This updates the moment both starters are confirmed.

    Trade this game on Kalshi β†’Vikings hub β†’Bills hub β†’Kalshi NFL hub β†’Week 9 edge board β†’NFL predictions hub β†’

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    After this one

    Bills: Week 10 at JetsModel line β†’Vikings: Week 10 at PackersModel line β†’

    More Week 9 matchups

    Jaguars at RavensRavens βˆ’1Bengals at FalconsevenBroncos at PanthersevenCowboys at ColtsColts βˆ’0.5Jets at ChiefsChiefs βˆ’6Lions at DolphinsLions βˆ’3.5Browns at SaintsSaints βˆ’2.5Giants at EaglesEagles βˆ’5.5Rams at CommandersRams βˆ’4Texans at ChargersevenRaiders at 49ers49ers βˆ’10Packers at PatriotsPatriots βˆ’4.5Cardinals at SeahawksSeahawks βˆ’12Buccaneers at BearsBears βˆ’4.5

    Full Week 9 board β†’Next: NFL Week 10 predictions β†’

    Same model, inside your AI agent

    The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server β€” every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.

    See the in-season NFL tools β†’

    Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β€” not financial advice. Trade responsibly.

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