Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks
Updated · market price
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, Kalshi implies 56% for the Seahawks in Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks, NFL Week 7 2026, while the market line has the Seahawks by 2.5 (59% to win) — a 2.3pp gap. Value side: the Seahawks. The PredictionMarketsPicks model's own line is Seahawks by 6.0 against a market line of Seahawks by 2.5 — a 3.5-point lean toward the Seahawks, graded separately from any position.
Kickoff board
Week 7 · 2026-10-141 actionable market of 1 priced — largest edge 2.3pp on Seahawks moneyline.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
KC
+0.4
SEA
+3.9
Chiefs
41%
fair value (books)
Seahawks
59%
fair value (books)
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
50%
Madden 27
50%
Madden 27
Run the numbers yourself
All tools →Go Pro · 26% off your first year
Every NFL line that moves before kickoff — before the market catches up
Pro is the layer around the free game edges: fair value against the live Kalshi price on every market, edge alerts in Discord the moment a gap opens, and the full win-total, championship and projection boards.
$111 for the first year, then $150/yr. Code applies automatically. Ends Dec 31. Monthly is $14.99/mo.
Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
The Ladder — Chiefs at Seahawks
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Share this Oracle Ladder
Chiefs vs Seahawks power ratings (Week 7)
Chiefs and Seahawks season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
Chiefs–Seahawks, 53 games in
These two have played 53 times going back through the record we hold, and the modern-era series is 4-2 to the Chiefs since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +3.9 against +0.4, Seahawks by 6, 66% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +0.5 (14th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -1.0 (18th) — 1.5 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (+1.1, 12th) meets the Seahawks defense (+2.2, 1st), a 1.2-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.2, 1st in the league, against +0.3 (19th) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.3 projected wins for the Seahawks against 10.4 for the Chiefs, favored in 15 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Chiefs'. Nothing on the Chiefs' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Chiefs are on 7 days and the Seahawks are on 10 days. The Chiefs come in off the Chargers, the Seahawks off the Broncos. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 Seattle home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 58°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 448 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 65-70% range. Those favourites went 68%. The 66% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history backs it.
Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA contract implies 56% for the Seahawks against a fair value (books) of 59% — a 2.3-point gap. That clears our floor for a position (2 points net of the book's spread), which flags the Seahawks as the value side at 57c.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Chiefs vs Seahawks on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA
- Market-implied (Seahawks)
- 56c · 56%
- Fair value — books (Seahawks)
- 59%
- Fair value vs market
- +2.3pp
Kalshi lists this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA. A contract price in cents is already a probability, so 56c on the Seahawks is an implied 56% — no odds conversion needed. Our books-anchored fair value has 59%, a 2.3pp gap. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 and you can exit before kickoff.
Where Chiefs vs Seahawks trades
3 venues price this game on their own exchange; the rest resell the Kalshi contract or list it without a price we can quote. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 56% 56c | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 57% 57c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket USUS exchange — separate book | 57% 57c | Open Polymarket US → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | 56% 56c | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | 56% 56c | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Embed this game on your site
A live tile locked to Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — our model's win probability against the Kalshi price for this one game, not "whichever game is closest today" — for a team blog, a newsletter or a Discord landing page. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
The MPU (300×250) and Leaderboard (728×90) sizes are IAB standard ad units — paste one where an ad already goes. Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×320
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026/hero" width="560" height="320" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×340
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="340" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
MPU · ad slot · 300×250
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026/mpu" width="300" height="250" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Leaderboard · ad slot · 728×90
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-game/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026/leaderboard" width="728" height="90" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 prediction — model vs Kalshi from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-game">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Embed this game’s spread ladder
A live card locked to Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.
Every NFL prediction-market widget.
Article width · 560×300
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026/hero" width="560" height="300" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Sidebar · 320×280
<iframe src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nfl-ladder/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026/sidebar" width="320" height="280" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" title="Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 — model vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks"> </iframe> <p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 Kalshi spread ladder from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nfl/chiefs-vs-seahawks-week-07-2026?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nfl-ladder">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>
Watch the breakdown: Chiefs vs Seahawks
41:41NFL Week 4 Picks: Derrick Henry TD Ladder, Chiefs-Raiders, Falcons-Saints | Fade The Field Ep. 19Oct 1, 2026
4:11Why Jadarian Price will win NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award (and why you should buy NOW)Sep 9, 2026
ShortWhy the #Seattle #Seahawks WILL NOT Win 11 Games! #predictionmarkets #nflJul 9, 2026Chiefs vs Seahawks — frequently asked
Who will win Seahawks vs Chiefs?
The market line has the Seahawks at 59% to beat the Chiefs in Week 7.
Who is favored in Chiefs vs Seahawks in Week 7?
The market line has the Seahawks by 2.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Chiefs (our model's own line: Seahawks by 6). Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA market implies 56% for the Seahawks — a 2.3pp gap versus the market line.
What is the all-time record between the Chiefs and Seahawks?
Our records hold 53 meetings. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 4-2 for the Chiefs over 6 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
How do you take a position on Chiefs vs Seahawks?
The contract is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. Seahawks YES is quoted around 56c against a fair value (books) of 59%. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Seahawks host the Chiefs?
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
What does the model project for the Seahawks and Chiefs this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.3 wins (favored in 15) and the Chiefs at 10.4 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Chiefs', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Chiefs vs Seahawks?
Kalshi prices this game as event KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA. The Seahawks YES contract sits around 56c, which is an implied 56% — against our books-anchored fair value of 59%. That is a 2.3pp gap, and a contract price in cents is already a probability, so no odds conversion is needed.
Can you trade Chiefs vs Seahawks on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 7 game market is KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
Is Seahawks moneyline worth a position?
Our model puts it at 59% against a market price implying 57%, an edge of +2.3 points. Model 59% vs market 56% on SEA. We rate it a position, sized at 1.3% of bankroll at quarter Kelly.
Every Thursday before kickoff: the full Week 7 card, market price vs our number. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
After this one
More Week 7 matchups
Patriots at BearsPatriots −3.5
Steelers at SaintsSteelers −2.5
49ers at Falconseven
Bengals at RavensBengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersPanthers −7
Giants at TexansTexans −9
Colts at VikingsVikings −3.5
Dolphins at JetsJets −5
Browns at TitansBrowns −1.5
Broncos at CardinalsBroncos −3
Packers at LionsLions −2
Rams at RaidersRams −3.5
Cowboys at EaglesEagles −3Same model, inside your AI agent
The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
More NFL model boards
- NFL Week 6 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 7 predictions — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 5 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale