Updated · model ratings
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
Quick Answer
Final (Sunday, October 25, 2026): Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 — NFL Week 7, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 3 (60% to win); the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Seahawks at 59c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.
Settled
Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20Final
Model call: HITOur pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 3 (60% to win). The Seahawks won — that call landed.
Closing-line value on the Seahawks: +4c — we archived the Seahawks at 55c on Oct 19; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 59c on Oct 25. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.
Next: NFL Week 8 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →
No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.
Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.
Kansas City came into Sunday night unbeaten and left with a field goal. Seattle outgained the Chiefs 410 to 213, held the ball for 35:51 and converted 11 of 16 third downs. Sam Darnold threw for 257 yards and a 28-yard touchdown to Smith-Njigba, and Emanuel Wilson ran 24 times for 100 yards, including the 21-yard touchdown that made it 20-3 with 3:47 left. Patrick Mahomes went 19 of 33 for 165 yards with an interception, Kenneth Walker III was held to 36 yards on 14 carries, and Harrison Butker made one of three field goals. Seattle went 0 for 3 in the red zone and still won by 17. DraftKings had the Seahawks as 3-point home favorites at the open and the close; 23 points finished well under both the opening 45.5 and the closing 43.5.
Chiefs 3—Seahawks 20
Final✓ Call hitThe chip reads a hit. It grades our stored probability, which had Seattle at 60.5%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 3-point Seahawks line. Seattle won. The model’s own read had the Seahawks by 4.9, a 1.9-point lean toward Seattle, tier NONE, and they won by 17: the lean was right, below the size we grade as a call. The quarterback gate read PASS on both sides. The ledger holds no position: three Seahawks moneyline rows (HIGH on October 17, then MODERATE twice) were voided on October 19, 20 and 21 when the edge was gone, and they count in neither direction. The preview on this page made two claims. Seattle’s pass rush against Kansas City’s banged-up tackles produced only one sack, though Mahomes averaged 5.0 yards a pass: half right at best. Its other claim, that Seattle could not run the ball, was wrong: the Seahawks ran for 153 yards and Wilson for 100. The final pre-kickoff player run carried no PLAY rows on this game. It carried eight WATCH rows, graded apart as always and never folded into the record. Two are suppressed touchdown rows the board never displays (Walker and Smith-Njigba to score) and they count in neither direction. The six visible rows went 3-3: Mahomes under 14.5 and 19.5 rushing yards (14) and Rashid Shaheed over 1.5 catches (two) were right; Mahomes under 9.5 rushing yards, Shaheed over 2.5 catches and Wilson over 1.5 catches (one) lost.
DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.
The spread did not move. The total fell 2 to 43.5; the game landed on 23.
Q2
Neither team scored in the first quarter. Seattle started at its own 7 late in the period and went 15 plays and 86 yards over 8:26, with a 33-yard throw to Smith-Njigba getting them inside the red zone, per the AP, and Jason Myers kicked a 25-yard field goal.
Q2
Okada picked off Mahomes’ throw for Jalen Royals at the Seattle 34. The Seahawks went 66 yards in ten plays, and Smith-Njigba’s 28-yard catch, first ruled out of bounds at the 1, was changed to a touchdown on review with 1:44 left in the half.
Q2
Smith-Njigba’s 28-yard catch put Seattle at the Kansas City 2 with under a minute left, and from the 3 Williams intercepted Darnold’s throw for Shaheed deep in the end zone and returned it to the Seattle 44. Butker’s 58-yard attempt to end the half came up short.
Q4
Myers and Butker traded field goals in the third quarter, from 35 and 50 yards. Kansas City’s first drive of the fourth went 60 yards in 11 plays and ended with Butker missing from 45, wide right. Seattle answered with nine plays and 65 yards, and Wilson ran in from 21 with 3:47 left.
Reporting verified 2026-10-27. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 150 receiving yards and a score in the Seahawks’ 20-3 win over the Chiefs
An undefeated Kansas City leads the league in yards and in net yards per play; Seattle leads it in total yards and passing yards allowed and wins pass-rush snaps at a higher rate than anyone. The cleanest unit-versus-unit collision of the week, with one thumb on the scale: Kansas City’s two starting tackles both sat out Wednesday, and Seattle’s edge is precisely where Kansas City is thin. Both quarterback rooms clear our gate.
Chiefs offense · Seahawks defense
Kansas City leads the league in yards at 414.0 a game and in net yards per play at plus 1.9, and scores 28.0. Seattle allows 237.3 total yards, first, and 141.3 passing, first. There is no clever read available here: whoever wins early-down efficiency wins the game, and both units have been the best in the league at exactly that. The reason to think Kansas City can still do it is that Seattle’s number is built on preventing passing yards rather than on preventing points, and the Kansas City offense is the one built to take what a defense concedes rather than to force a shape onto it.
Source: Fox Sports — 2026 NFL defense rankings, team pass-rush stats (updated 2026-10-20)
Seahawks pass rush · Chiefs pass protection
Seattle wins pass-rush snaps at a sixty-nine percent rate, first in the league and five points clear of second, and is second in quick-pressure rate. Kansas City had both starting tackles out of Wednesday’s session: Josh Simmons with a back and a non-injury personal designation, and Jaylon Moore in concussion protocol, with Joshua Ezeudu expected to start at right tackle. Rashee Rice was also down with a hamstring and a knee, and Travis Kelce was limited with an ankle. The specific danger of this combination is not the sack count; it is that quick pressure is the one thing that takes the Kansas City passing game out of rhythm, and Seattle generates it better than anyone.
Source: chiefs.com — Week 7 injury report, Chiefs vs Seahawks (2026-10-21)
Seahawks run offense · Chiefs run defense
This is the reason a 3-3 team with the league’s best defense is a 3-3 team. Seattle is last in the league in rushing expected points at minus 27.51, thirtieth by a second measure, and has averaged ninety-six rushing yards a game across a 1-3 stretch. Kansas City allows 88.8 on the ground, sixth, and 16.6 points, second. So Seattle’s path is to win a low-scoring game with its defense and its passing game — which is viable, and is roughly what the board thinks — but it has no way to control the game on the ground against this particular front, and that puts the whole burden on the unit in the first section.
Source: seahawks.com — 2026 Week 7 injury report, Chiefs at Seahawks (2026-10-21)
Reporting verified 2026-10-22. Further sources: chiefs.com — Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21) · seahawks.com — 2026 Week 7 injury report (2026-10-21) · Fox Sports — 2026 defense rankings, updated 2026-10-20 · SI — Chiefs vs Seahawks, Week 7 preview (2026-10-21) · SI / OnSI — The Seahawks’ pass rush is elite, the numbers back that up (2026-10-07) · SI / OnSI — Eight embarrassing stats about the Seahawks after Week 6 (2026-10-20) · FootballDB — 2026 team offense totals · Pro Football Talk — Week 7 2026 power rankings, records (2026-10-20)
Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.
KC
+0.4
SEA
+4.1
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Chiefs
40%
fair value (books)
Seahawks
60%
fair value (books)
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50%
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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 — the graded call is above.
These two have played 53 times going back through the record we hold, and the modern-era series is 4-2 to the Chiefs since 2002. History is not a handicapping input for us — rosters turn over and the model only reads 2026 ratings — but it is the reason this game gets attention the ratings alone would not justify. The number: +4.1 against +0.4, Seahawks by 5, 63% to win.
The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Seahawks offense grades +0.6 (14th of 32) against a Chiefs defense at -1.0 (16th) — 1.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Chiefs offense (+1.3, 12th) meets the Seahawks defense (+2.3, 2nd), a 1.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Seahawks grade +1.1, 1st in the league, against +0.2 (22nd) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Season-long, the model can barely split them: 10.1 projected wins for the Seahawks against 10.6 for the Chiefs, favored in 14 and 10 of their 17 respectively. Two teams heading for the same neighborhood in the standings tend to produce exactly this kind of line. This game sits 13th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Chiefs'. Nothing on the Chiefs' schedule projects harder than this one.
On the calendar, the Chiefs are on 7 days and the Seahawks are on 10 days. The Chiefs come in off the Chargers, the Seahawks off the Broncos. Rest measures at about a tenth of a point per day (2013-2025), and the closing line already charges for it, so a normal-week gap is not where an edge comes from.
Conditions are unlikely to be the story: across 8 Seattle home games in October since 2015, the median temperature was 58°F and the median wind 5 mph. That is a neutral-weather profile, which is worth knowing mostly because it removes an excuse from both sides.
Does the model earn this number? In 666 of the 3266 walk-forward games it has been graded on (2013-2024, no market line used), it landed in the 60-65% range. Those favorites went 59%. The 63% on the Seahawks here sits in that same band, and the history runs slightly behind the claim.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 60% for the Seahawks. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Seahawks | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | game played — market settled | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | 59% 59c | Open Novig → |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game — US exchange | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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ShortWhy the #Seattle #Seahawks WILL NOT Win 11 Games! #predictionmarkets #nflJul 9, 2026Kansas City Chiefs 3, Seattle Seahawks 20 — final, played Sunday, October 25, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Seahawks by 3 (60% to win), and the Seahawks won, so that call hit. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.
Before kickoff the market line favored the Seahawks by 3 points, a 60% win probability over the Chiefs. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA market has since settled, so no price on it is live.
Our records hold 53 meetings. Since 2002 the regular-season series is 4-2 for the Chiefs over 6 games. The model does not use series history — it prices the 2026 ratings only.
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Seahawks at 58c or below, or the Chiefs at 38c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
Kansas City Chiefs visit the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, October 25, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 7, at Lumen Field, Seattle, WA.
Across all 17 games the model projects the Seahawks at 10.1 wins (favored in 14) and the Chiefs at 10.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 13th-hardest on the Seahawks' schedule and 1st-hardest on the Chiefs', by win probability.
Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.
This game has been played, so the Week 7 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT25KCSEA has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.
Our model puts it at 61% against a market price implying 59%, an edge of +1.5 points. Model 60% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 59% on SEA — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.
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Patriots at BearsModel: Bears −2.5
Steelers at SaintsModel: Steelers −2.5
49ers at FalconsModel: 49ers −2
Bengals at RavensModel: Bengals −1.5
Buccaneers at PanthersModel: Panthers −3
Giants at TexansModel: Texans −5
Colts at VikingsModel: Vikings −4
Dolphins at JetsModel: Jets −4.5
Browns at TitansModel: Browns −1
Broncos at CardinalsModel: Broncos −2.5
Packers at LionsModel: Lions −1.5
Rams at RaidersModel: Rams −2.5
Cowboys at EaglesModel: Cowboys −1The engine behind these numbers is callable from Claude, ChatGPT or Grok through our MCP server — every Kalshi prop this week priced venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.
See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
