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Home/NFL/Week 6/Cardinals vs Rams
Gridiron EdgeWeek 6 · 2026NFC West rivalry

Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16

Final. The rematch: Rams vs Cardinals, Week 10 →Upset: Cardinals closed +600 and won. Every 2026 upset, by closing line →

Updated · model ratings

Sunday, October 18, 2026 · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Quick Answer

Final (Sunday, October 18, 2026): Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 — NFL Week 6, 2026. Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 12.5 (87% to win); the Cardinals won, so that call missed. The last Kalshi price we archived before kickoff had the Rams at 87c. The graded recap below covers how it happened and how each player call on our board resolved.

Every NFL edge on the board →

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Settled

Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16Final

Model call: MISS

Our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 12.5 (87% to win). The Cardinals won — that call missed.

Closing-line value on the Rams: +1c — we archived the Rams at 86c on Oct 11; the last Kalshi price before kickoff was 87c on Oct 18. The market moved toward our side before kickoff.

Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →See how the model has done vs Kalshi →

Kickoff board How to read the Kickoff Board →

Week 6 · 2026-10-19

No actionable edge on this game — 1 market priced and every one inside our tolerance.

MarketPriceModelCall¼ Kelly
Cardinals moneylineModel 13% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 13% on ARI — kept as the pre-game record.13c13%Pass—

Edge is model probability minus the market's implied probability, in percentage points. Prop rows show our tier, and our odds only where our probabilities are calibrated; props carry no Kelly stake. One published number per market: where our sources disagreed we publish the most conservative defensible figure, and where they disagreed by more than 15 points the row is a conflict and carries no stake. ¼ Kelly is the share of a bankroll quarter-Kelly would put on the row at the published price — click it to size against your own bankroll on our Kelly calculator, or call kelly_size from our MCP server inside your own agent.

Data quality & caveats
  • • Kalshi is not quoting this game yet — the board covers derivative markets only.

Cardinals 18, Rams 16: Chad Ryland’s sixth field goal, a 43-yarder as time expired, beat the double-digit favorites at SoFi Stadium

Arizona scored all 18 of its points on Ryland field goals and held a Rams offense that came in leading the league in total yards to 286. Los Angeles lost kicker Blake Grupe to a knee injury on a first-quarter kickoff, turned it over on downs twice in the second half and lost a Tyler Higbee fumble in Arizona territory. Matthew Stafford still led an 86-yard drive that ended in Colby Parkinson’s six-yard touchdown, awarded on review with 47 seconds left, and punter Ethan Evans kicked the go-ahead extra point. Jacoby Brissett then moved Arizona 40 yards in five plays and Ryland won it. ESPN’s archived DraftKings line had the Rams −13.5 at both the open and the close; 34 points finished under a total archived at 46.5 and 51.5.

Cardinals 18—Rams 16

Final✗ Call missed

The chip reads a miss. It grades our stored probability, which had the Rams at 86.6%: the market’s own number, anchored at weight zero (w = 0) from a 12.5-point line, and Arizona won outright. The model’s own read was the Rams by 9.54, a 2.96-point lean toward Arizona, tier WATCH, and Arizona won by two: the lean was right, and it is graded apart from the record as every WATCH row is. The quarterback gate read PASS. The ledger holds no position. Its two rows on this game were Arizona moneylines, and both were voided before kickoff (a LOW row on 2026-10-07 under the never-published rule, and a MODERATE row on 2026-10-12 as no longer an edge), so the upset counts in neither direction. The final pre-kickoff board carried no PLAY rows. Fifteen visible WATCH rows went 14-1. Puka Nacua under 6.5 and 7.5 catches won on six, Kendrick Bourne over 2.5 and 3.5 catches won on five, Michael Wilson’s three unders won on four, and the Kyren Williams, Parkinson, Higbee and Elijah Higgins overs all won. The one loss was Davis Allen over 0.5 catches: he caught none. Six rows on suppressed stats (four Stafford passing-yards rungs, Brissett passing yards and a Nacua anytime touchdown) were never displayed and count in neither direction.

Opening and closing line

DraftKings via ESPN, one book. Not the Kalshi price — that block reads our own tape.

Spread
Rams −13.5 → Rams −13.5
Total
46.5 → 51.5
Moneyline
ARI +500 / LAR −700 → ARI +600 / LAR −900

The spread did not move. The total rose 5 to 51.5; the game landed on 34.

How it happened

Q1

Brissett was intercepted, Grupe kicked a 44-yarder, and then hurt his knee making the tackle

Brissett’s first-quarter throw for Trey McBride was intercepted at the Arizona 32, and Grupe made a 44-yard field goal. On the ensuing kickoff Grupe had to make the tackle himself on a 40-yard return and was injured on the play, leaving the Rams without a kicker. Ryland answered with field goals from 34 and 30 yards.

Grupe
44-yard FG, then injured covering the kickoff
Ryland
34 and 30 yards

ESPN — play-by-play

Q2

Stafford to Blake Corum for 15, a failed two-point try, and 9-9 at the half

The Rams went 73 yards in 12 plays and Stafford hit Corum for a 15-yard touchdown, but with no kicker they went for two and Stafford was sacked. Ryland’s 22-yarder with 46 seconds left in the half tied it at 9.

Rams touchdown drive
12 plays · 73 yds · 6:28
Two-point try
Stafford sacked, failed
Halftime
Cardinals 9, Rams 9

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Two long Arizona drives for field goals, a Higbee fumble and two Rams turnovers on downs

Arizona opened the second half with a 15-play, 56-yard drive for Ryland’s 38-yarder, and after the Rams turned it over on downs it went 64 yards in 14 plays for a 27-yarder and a 15-9 lead. On the Rams’ next possession Cody Simon forced a Higbee fumble that Arizona recovered at its own 25, and the Rams’ following drive ended on downs too.

Arizona drives
15 plays · 56 yds · FG; 14 plays · 64 yds · FG
Rams second-half possessions before the last
downs, fumble, downs
Time of possession
ARI 34:52 · LAR 25:08

ESPN — play-by-play

Q4

Nacua for 43, Parkinson’s touchdown on review, Evans’ extra point, then Ryland from 43 at the gun

The Rams took over at their 14 with 2:48 left, and Stafford found Nacua for 43 yards to the Arizona 34. Parkinson was ruled down at the 1 with 47 seconds left before review reversed it to a six-yard touchdown, and Evans kicked the extra point for a 16-15 lead. Brissett hit Jalen Brooks for 21, an unnecessary-roughness penalty on Josh Wallace added 15, and Ryland made the 43-yarder as time expired.

Final
Cardinals 18, Rams 16
Ryland
6 of 6 field goals
Stafford
25 of 33 · 222 yds · 2 TD
Brissett
24 of 35 · 218 yds · 1 INT
Total yards
ARI 338 · LAR 286

AP via ESPN — Cardinals beat Rams 18-16 on Chad Ryland’s 6th field goal as time expires

What this recap does not know

  • The ledger has not graded this game. There is no live nfl_weekly_edges row for it (both Arizona moneyline rows were voided before kickoff). Grading runs Tue/Wed on the Mac-mini launchd schedule because Kalshi IP-blocks the GitHub runner. Every outcome above is derived from the ESPN box score and play-by-play, and the prop grades come from a script run against the box score (handoffs/artifacts/NFL_W6_SUNDAY_RECAPS_2026-10-18/prop-reconciliation-w06.csv), never by hand. If the ledger ever disagrees, the ledger is right and this page is wrong.
  • ESPN’s archived DraftKings line reads Rams −13.5 at both the open and the close, with moneylines of −700 and −900 and a total that moved from 46.5 to 51.5, while our stored anchor was a 12.5-point line. These are printed as archived; this recap has not confirmed them against a second source and does not treat the total move as real.
  • Two details differ between the AP story and ESPN’s play-by-play: the AP gives Nacua’s catch as 42 yards and the Higbee fumble at 7:47 to play, while the play-by-play has 43 yards and 8:05. This recap uses the play-by-play.
  • The severity of Grupe’s knee injury and Walter Nolen III’s ankle was not known when this was published.
  • This recap does not know what the Kalshi book did during the game. Nothing above is a live price.

Reporting verified 2026-10-18. Further sources: ESPN — box score · ESPN — play-by-play · AP via ESPN — Cardinals beat Rams 18-16 on Chad Ryland’s 6th field goal as time expires

Two left tackles are gone, Myles Garrett is out, and Arizona has to cover Matthew Stafford with its safeties missing

Both quarterbacks are confirmed, so the gate has nothing to add. What matters is who is blocking and who is covering: the Rams lose Alaric Jackson to a two-game suspension on the same week Garrett stays on injured reserve, and the Cardinals arrive with a seventh-round rookie at left tackle, Marvin Harrison Jr. traded to Houston, and three safeties who did not practise Wednesday against the quarterback leading the league in passing yards. Our lean sits with Arizona against the number, at WATCH tier — and the most likely explanation is that the rating cannot see any of that.

Rams pass offense · Cardinals coverage

Stafford against the worst pass defense in football, which practised Wednesday without three safeties

Edge: Rams

This is the market’s case and it is a strong one. Arizona allows a league-high 0.72 passing points per attempt, a league-high 9.1 yards per attempt and a league-high 10.1% touchdown rate, and the man coming in has thrown for 300-plus yards in four straight games and leads the NFL in completions, attempts and yards. Arizona also answers two-tight-end sets with base personnel on 78% of snaps, and Stafford against base this year is 38-of-55 for 9.1 a throw with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Then Wednesday happened: Budda Baker sat for rest, Wydett Williams is in the concussion protocol and Andrew Wingard’s knee kept him out, which is the entire safety room, with Kitan Crawford limited in his first work since going on injured reserve after Week 1. Puka Nacua caught a career-high 17 balls against Buffalo on Monday night; Davante Adams has four touchdowns on 27 catches. The Rams are 16-3 against Arizona under McVay.

Cardinals pass defense
0.72 passing points per attempt, 9.1 Y/A and a 10.1% TD rate allowed — all league-worst
Stafford, five games
139/216, 1,572 yards (NFL lead), 300+ in four straight · vs base personnel 38/55, 9.1 Y/A, 4 TD, 0 INT
Arizona safeties, Wednesday
Baker (rest) DNP · Wydett Williams (concussion) DNP · Wingard (knee) DNP · Crawford (IR) limited

Source: Sharp Football Analysis — Cardinals–Rams Week 6 worksheet

Cardinals pass rush · Rams pass protection

The Rams lose Alaric Jackson for two games the same week Garrett stays out — Arizona’s case

Edge: Cardinals

Here is the part the number may not be carrying. Stafford has been sacked seven times on 216 dropbacks, the lowest rate of any starter, and a large share of that is a left side anchored by Jackson — who, after Monday’s overtime loss, followed Bradley Chubb through the jersey exchange and punched him. The league handed him two games, so he is out against Arizona and Las Vegas, and no replacement was named by the club this week. On the other side of the ball the Rams still do not have Garrett, who had knee surgery in September; McVay said Tuesday he will not practise this week and will not play Sunday. Without him the Rams have eight sacks in five games, Byron Young carrying 3.5 of them, and Aaron Donald — 35, back from retirement — has played three games with no sacks and sat out last week’s report with a back injury. Arizona’s rush is modest, eleven sacks spread across nine players, but it has pressured people: Josh Sweat and Baron Browning sat Wednesday for rest, not injury. A blind-side rookie against a rested veteran edge is a very different proposition from a Pro Bowl tackle.

Alaric Jackson
Suspended two games for striking Bradley Chubb post-game 10/12 — out Weeks 6 (ARI) and 7 (LV); replacement unnamed
Rams pass protection to date
7 sacks allowed on 216 attempts (3.1%) — the league’s lowest rate, built with Jackson at left tackle
Rams pass rush without Garrett
8 team sacks in 5 games · Byron Young 3.5 · Donald 0 in 3 games, DNP (back) on the Week 5 report

Source: Yahoo Sports — Rams–Cardinals injury report: LA in great shape to start Week 6 (2026-10-14)

Both run offenses · both run defenses

Kyren Williams into a run defense that just allowed 163 to Detroit, while Arizona may not have Jeremiyah Love

Edge: Rams

Arizona’s run defense gave up 163 rushing yards to the Lions and 140 to San Francisco, and sits at 4.4 yards a carry allowed on the season; Kyren Williams is at 4.9 a carry with four rushing touchdowns and Blake Corum at 4.8 behind him. Going the other way the Rams are not good against the run either — 4.6 a carry allowed, 26th, and Buffalo ran for 234 on Monday — but Arizona cannot exploit it the way Buffalo did. Love, the rookie first-round back, did not practise Wednesday with a left ankle he hurt in Week 4 and played through against Detroit for 12 carries and 22 yards; LaFleur said the staff is resting him and will "see how the week goes". Tyler Allgeier behind him is at 3.4 a carry. And the man who would open those lanes, Paris Johnson Jr., tore his left biceps in New York and is out for the year; seventh-round rookie Jayden Williams took the job, with Jedrick Wills Jr. signed off Buffalo’s practice squad as cover. A rookie left tackle and a hobbled back is not the roster to grind out a road game against a defense that is third in yards allowed.

Cardinals run defense
4.4 yards per carry allowed · 163 rushing yards to DET, 140 to SF, 162 to SEA
Rams run game vs Rams run defense
Kyren Williams 70 att, 343 yds, 4.9, 4 TD · LAR allows 4.6 per carry (26th), 234 to Buffalo
Arizona backfield and left tackle
Love (ankle) DNP, 12-22 vs DET · Allgeier 3.4 per carry · Paris Johnson Jr. on IR (biceps), rookie Jayden Williams starts

Source: Pro Football Reference — 2026 Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals pass offense · the quarterback picture

Brissett is the starter by design, and he is now throwing to McBride, Wilson and whoever is left

Edge: Rams

Brissett starting is not a Week 6 story, it is a March one: Arizona released Kyler Murray on 11 March rather than carry a $52.7m cap number, and LaFleur, hired from McVay’s staff, built around the 34-year-old who made twelve starts in 2025. He is completing 66% but at 5.6 yards an attempt, last among qualifiers, with nine touchdowns and five picks, and he was sacked 43 times in twelve starts last year behind a better line than this one. The receiver room thinned on Monday: Harrison, inactive against Detroit while the deal was finalised, went to Houston for a 2027 second- and sixth-rounder. What remains is a tight-end-first offense — Trey McBride leads the team with 56 targets and three scores, Michael Wilson has 51, and a one-game tight end named Teagan Quitoriano caught two touchdowns last week. The one thing Arizona does well is hold the ball: five giveaways in five games against the Rams’ eight. If the Cardinals cover this, it is because the Rams keep handing it back behind a backup left tackle, not because Arizona moves it.

Brissett, five games
132/199 (66.3%), 1,110 yds, 9 TD, 5 INT, 5.6 Y/A (last among qualifiers), sacked 12
Targets after the Harrison trade
McBride 56 tgt, 42-308, 3 TD · Wilson 51 tgt, 29-288 · Bourne 22 tgt · Harrison (5-85-1) traded to HOU 10/12
Giveaways
Arizona 5 in five games · Rams 8 (6 INT, 2 fumbles)

Source: Pro Football Reference — 2026 Arizona Cardinals

What this read does not know

  • Our lean points at Arizona against the number, at WATCH tier, and the most likely reason is staleness, not edge. The rating does not know Harrison was traded, that three safeties sat Wednesday or that a seventh-round rookie is at left tackle — all of which cut against the Cardinals, not for them. It also may not fully price the Jackson suspension and Garrett’s absence, which cut the other way. Two unmodelled shocks pointing in opposite directions is not a read, it is noise. We publish no position.
  • Jackson’s suspension is sourced to a reporter, not a league release. Ari Meirov reported two games and Yahoo’s Wednesday report repeats it; we did not locate the NFL’s own announcement or any word on an appeal. If the ban is reduced or stayed, the Rams’ protection unit this read is built on changes before kickoff.
  • The Rams did not practise Wednesday, so their report is an estimate — Davis Allen (foot) DNP, Landman, Parkinson and Josh Wallace limited, nobody at left tackle named. Thursday is the first real look. Arizona’s Wednesday table is genuine, but no game-status designation exists yet for Love, Williams or Wingard; those land Friday.
  • Brissett’s job is safe this week by the coach’s word, and only this week. LaFleur said he would not change quarterbacks; the worksheet we read says Arizona "may consider" a change and nothing is imminent. A 1-4 team with a new staff and a three-touchdown road loss is exactly where mid-season changes happen. The backup was not confirmed this session.
  • Arizona’s points-allowed figure is partly a quarterback-opponent artefact. They have faced Drew Lock, Brock Purdy, Jameis Winston and Jared Goff and given up 31, 36, 36 and 45; one of those four is not like the others and still scored 31. We did not adjust for it, and neither should the reader assume Stafford is capped by it.
  • The Rams changed kickers this week. Harrison Mevis went 5-of-9 and McVay called the kicking game "not even close to good enough" after it decided Monday night; the club replaced him with Blake Grupe. In a game the market expects to be decided by three scores this is a footnote. In a game decided by one it is the whole thing, and we have no sample on Grupe.

Reporting verified 2026-10-15. Further sources: Arizona Sports — Cardinals–Rams Week 6 injury report: Jeremiyah Love not participating Wednesday (2026-10-14) · Yahoo Sports — Rams–Cardinals injury report: LA in great shape to start Week 6 (2026-10-14) · therams.com — Rams injury updates (McVay on Garrett, 2026-10-13) · therams.com — From the podium: McVay and Stafford react to the overtime loss to Buffalo (2026-10-12) · Spectrum News / AP — Rams LT Alaric Jackson strikes Bills LB Bradley Chubb after OT game (2026-10-13) · Raising Zona — Cardinals vs. Rams Week 6: how to watch, injury news, storylines (LaFleur on Brissett, 2026-10-14) · Arizona’s Family — Paris Johnson Jr. out for the season, LaFleur says (2026-10-05) · Arizona’s Family — Cardinals agree to terms on trade sending Marvin Harrison Jr. to Texans (2026-10-12) · azcardinals.com — Free-agent primer 2026: quarterback (Murray release plan, Brissett’s 2025 line) · Sharp Football Analysis — Cardinals–Rams Week 6 worksheet · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Arizona Cardinals · Pro Football Reference — 2026 Los Angeles Rams

Every defense's injury load this week, by unit: the defensive injury cluster board.

PMP · WK 6 MODEL LINE
Sun, Oct 18
AWAY ARI -4.4
vs LAR -12.5
HOME LAR +3.0
Fair (books) · LAR 87% home win prob
Kalshi · LAR — yes mid
Edge — fair − Kalshi
📍 Inglewood, CA PASS — no position

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Cardinals

13%

fair value (books)

Rams

87%

fair value (books)

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30%

Madden 27

70%

Madden 27

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The Ladder — Cardinals at Rams How to read the Ladder →

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Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.

Cardinals at RamsSpreadMARKET READ

This ladder is settled: the rungs above are the pre-kickoff record, not a live quote.

    Market
    —

    Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30–70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.

    Legend
    • Kalshi YES mid, 0–100¢
    • book consensus (no-vig)
    • Oracle line (Pro) · hollow = outside the 30–70% band
    • YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; “pays” is 100¢ ÷ cost.
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    Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright — a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.

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    Cardinals at Rams Kalshi spread ladder for Week 6: the Kalshi price at every spread strike
    The Cardinals–Rams spread ladder — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

    Cardinals vs Rams power ratings (Week 6) What PWR measures →

    TeamRatingRankTier
    Arizona Cardinals-4.431stBelow Avg
    Los Angeles Rams+3.03rdPlayoff

    Cardinals and Rams season outlook

    ARILAR
    Average wins6.08.8
    Make playoffs4%42%
    Win division1%9%
    Win Super Bowl0.1%3.7%

    10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →

    Cardinals vs Rams — player pages

    All players →

    One page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.

    Before kickoff: Why the model has the Rams by 9.5

    How this read is built →

    Written before the game and kept as published. Final: Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 — the graded call is above.

    The model does not think this one is close. The Rams rate 3rd of 32 at +3.0, the Cardinals 31st at -4.4, and once home field is applied the line lands on the Rams by 9.5 — 75% to win. That is the widest gap among the 14 games on the Week 6 board. A preseason rating spread this size is not a promise: it says nothing about turnovers, health, or a defense that shows up different than last year. What it does say is that the Cardinals need the price to be wrong, not the matchup.

    The sharpest unit gap in the game runs one way: the Rams offense grades +2.9 (5th of 32) against a Cardinals defense at -3.8 (30th) — 6.6 points of separation on our scale, and the single biggest reason the line sits where it does. Going the other direction, the Cardinals offense (-0.6, 22nd) meets the Rams defense (+0.3, 6th), a 0.8-point gap.

    Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Rams at 8.8 wins (favored in 13 of 17) and the Cardinals at 6.0 (favored in 2) — 2.8 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 17th-hardest game on the Rams' schedule and the 2nd-hardest on the Cardinals'. It is the softest spot on the Rams' entire schedule.

    On the standings side, NFC West games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next — so the value of this result is not just the win column. They meet again in Week 10, which makes a sweep the outcome with real leverage on the NFC West race.

    Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 28-20 in the Rams' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Rams won 37-20 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Rams are 3-1. It is not an input to the line — rosters turn over faster than series records do.

    A note on confidence this high: the model has only been this sure 312 times in 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024. Teams it put in the 70-75% range won 71% of those. So a 75% Rams number is well supported by the record, and still loses about 29 times in 100 — which is exactly why the position is a price question, not a certainty question.

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18ARILAR, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Full division picture on the NFC West hub.

    Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.

    Cardinals vs Rams on Kalshi

    Kalshi event
    KXNFLGAME-26OCT18ARILAR
    Market-implied (Rams)
    not listed yet
    Fair value — books (Rams)
    87%
    Fair value vs market
    —

    This game has been played, so nothing above is a live market. Our pre-game market-anchored line number was 87% for the Rams. Those are kept as the record of what the model said before kickoff, not as a quote you can act on — the contract has settled at $1 or $0.

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    Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.

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    Kalshigame played — market settledTrade on Kalshi →
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    Watch the breakdown: Cardinals vs Rams

    Cardinals vs Rams — frequently asked

    Who won Cardinals vs Rams in Week 6?

    Arizona Cardinals 18, Los Angeles Rams 16 — final, played Sunday, October 18, 2026; our pre-game market-anchored line had the Rams by 12.5 (87% to win), and the Cardinals won, so that call missed. The full graded recap, with every player call resolved, is on this page.

    Who did the model favor in Cardinals vs Rams before kickoff?

    Before kickoff the market line favored the Rams by 12.5 points, a 87% win probability over the Cardinals. That number is kept on this page as the record of the call; Kalshi's KXNFLGAME-26OCT18ARILAR market has since settled, so no price on it is live.

    What would it take for the Cardinals to win?

    The 9.5-point line comes from a 7.4-point rating gap, 2.5 points of home field, and a single-game margin has roughly a 14.4-point standard deviation around it — which is why the Cardinals still project at 13% rather than zero. Their best structural path is the Cardinals defense (-3.8, 30th of 32) holding up. Ratings do not price injuries or turnover luck, which is where most upsets actually come from.

    How do you take a position on Cardinals vs Rams?

    The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26OCT18ARILAR on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Rams at 85c or below, or the Cardinals at 11c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.

    When and where do the Rams host the Cardinals?

    Arizona Cardinals visit the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, October 18, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 6, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA.

    What does the model project for the Rams and Cardinals this season?

    Across all 17 games the model projects the Rams at 8.8 wins (favored in 13) and the Cardinals at 6.0 (favored in 2). This game ranks 17th-hardest on the Rams' schedule and 2nd-hardest on the Cardinals', by win probability.

    What are the Kalshi odds for Cardinals vs Rams?

    Kalshi listed this game as KXNFLGAME-26OCT18ARILAR, and the contract has settled now that the game has been played. The last price we archived before kickoff is in the settled-market section on this page; there is no live price and no position left to take.

    Could you trade Cardinals vs Rams on Kalshi?

    This game has been played, so the Week 6 market KXNFLGAME-26OCT18ARILAR has settled — there is no position left to take on it. While it was open it traded as an event contract rather than a point spread: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, you bought a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c, and it settled at $1 or $0, so the price paid was the break-even probability. Kalshi lists the next week's games on the same terms.

    How often does the model win when it is 75% on a team like the Rams?

    71% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 70-75% range 312 times, and those teams won 71% of them. The Rams at 75% over the Cardinals sit in that band, off a 9.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.

    Is Cardinals moneyline worth a position?

    Our model puts it at 13% against a market price implying 13%, an edge of +0.4 points. Model 13% vs the last Kalshi price before kickoff, 13% on ARI — kept as the pre-game record. We pass — no position.

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    The rematch

    They run it back in Week 10. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. Cardinals–Rams, Week 10 →

    Next up for each team

    More Week 6 matchups

    Full Week 6 board →Next: NFL Week 7 predictions →

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