Vikings vs Packers Prediction β Week 10, Sun Nov 15
Updated Β· model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 Β· Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Last week: Vikings play Mon 8:15 PM ET vs Bills β preview
- Last week: Packers play Sun 4:25 PM ET at Patriots β preview
Quick Answer
As of October 28, 2026, PredictionMarketsPicks' model favors the Packers by 3.5 in Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers, NFL Week 10 2026 β 59% to win, and a Green Bay November game that has run a median 35Β°F since 2015. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Packers at 54c or below (or Vikings at 36c or below) is where the model would take a position.
MIN
+0.6
GB
+1.4
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Vikings
41%
our model
Packers
59%
our model
Run this matchup yourself β Full PWR board for all 32 β Player prop gaps for this game β Whose number this is β
40%
Madden 27
60%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Packers at 54c or below, or the Vikings at 36c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record β
The Ladder β Vikings at Packers How to read the Ladder β
All ladders βOur margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Kalshi has not listed a two-sided book on this ladder yet.
Fewer than three strikes have both a two-sided Kalshi book and a model number inside our published 30β70% band, so there is no shape call here. The market prices are complete.
- Kalshi YES mid, 0β100Β’
- book consensus (no-vig)
- Oracle line (Pro) Β· hollow = outside the 30β70% band
- YES/NO buttons are the Kalshi taker cost; βpaysβ is 100Β’ Γ· cost.
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only, and a rung where our number sits more than 30 points from a liquid market is refused outright β a gap that size is a bug until proven otherwise. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
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Vikings vs Packers power ratings (Week 10) What PWR measures β
Vikings and Packers season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings β real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works β
Vikings vs Packers β player pages
All players βOne page per player: every strike Kalshi lists, the sportsbook consensus at the same threshold, the season projection and the measured range.
Cold-weather math: Vikings at Packers in November
Start with the conditions, because they are the one thing about this game we can measure historically. Across 10 Green Bay home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 35Β°F with 10 mph of wind, and 60% of them were at or below 40Β°F β the coldest in the sample read 27Β°F. Our model prices none of that: it sees +1.4 for the Packers, +0.6 for the Vikings, and lands on the Packers by 3.5 (59%). Weather is an argument you add to that number, not one already inside it.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Packers grade -0.2 on that side of the ball (10th of 32) against a Vikings offense at -2.4 (30th) β 2.1 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Packers offense (+1.6, 11th) meets the Vikings defense (+2.4, 1st), a 0.8-point gap. One more tilt worth noting: special teams favors the Vikings +0.5 (10th of 32) to +0.0 (28th).
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Packers at 9.4 wins (favored in 11 of 17) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10) β 2.2 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 12th-hardest game on the Packers' schedule and the 3rd-hardest on the Vikings'.
On the standings side, NFC North games are the ones that decide the tiebreakers. Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker between two teams in the same division, and division record is the next β so the value of this result is not just the win column. They already played in Week 1, so a season sweep is on the table here on the NFC North race.
Recent history, for context only: 48 regular-season meetings since 2002, 26-20 in the Packers' favour, plus 2 playoff games. They last met in 2025: Vikings won 16-3 in January. Over their last 4 meetings the Packers are 1-3. It is not an input to the line β rosters turn over faster than series records do.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 55-60% in 797 of them, and those sides won 57%. The Packers at 59% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB, so there is no price on the board and no edge to quote. The model's number to hold it to: Packers 59%, Vikings 41%. Applying our 5 points floor, that makes Packers contracts a buy at 54c or below and Vikings contracts a buy at 36c or below β anything between is inside the noise, and we pass. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Full division picture on the NFC North hub.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks β you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Vikings vs Packers on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB
- Market-implied (Packers)
- not listed yet
- Our ratings line (Packers)
- 59%
- Model vs market
- β
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Packers at 54c or below, or the Vikings at 36c or below β a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Vikings vs Packers line history
The earliest line we archived, on Sep 13, had the Packers β4.5 (DraftKings). The median across 2 books now is the Packers β4.5.
| Book | Earliest line we archived | Now | Spread trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | Packers β4.5 Β· O/U 45.5Sep 13 | Packers β4.5 Β· O/U 45.5 | |
| Caesars | Packers β4.5 Β· O/U 44.5Sep 13 | Packers β4.5 Β· O/U 44.5 |
Posted spreads and totals as our odds feed recorded them; a row is added only when a book moves its line. βEarliest line we archivedβ is our first capture, which is not necessarily the marketβs open. Spreads are stated for the favorite. The Kalshi price is that exchangeβs own moneyline contract.
Where Vikings vs Packers trades Why the venues differ β
Each venueβs own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Packers | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet β opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi β |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig β $50 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer β |
| Polymarket.com (international) | no captured price for this game β international book | Informational |
| Polymarket US | no captured price for this game β US exchange | Sign-up offer β |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood β |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase β |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available β sign-up offer β | Sign-up offer β |
A price under a venue name is that venueβs own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
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Who will win Packers vs Vikings?
Our model has the Packers at 59% to beat the Vikings in Week 10.
Who is favored in Vikings vs Packers in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Packers by 3.5 points, a 59% win probability over the Vikings. The Packers rate 10th of 32 (+1.4) and the Vikings 14th (+0.6); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the weather usually like for Green Bay games in November?
Across 10 Green Bay home games in November since 2015, the median kickoff temperature was 35Β°F with 10 mph wind, 60% of them at or below 40Β°F, and the coldest at 27Β°F. That is a historical profile, not a forecast for this date β and our model carries no weather term, so it is not inside the 3.5-point line.
How do you take a position on Vikings vs Packers?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Packers at 54c or below, or the Vikings at 36c or below. There is no point spread β you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Packers host the Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, November 15, 2026 β a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI.
What does the model project for the Packers and Vikings this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Packers at 9.4 wins (favored in 11) and the Vikings at 11.6 (favored in 10). This game ranks 12th-hardest on the Packers' schedule and 3rd-hardest on the Vikings', by win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Vikings vs Packers?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game β anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Packers at 54c or below or the Vikings at 36c or below, off a 3.5-point line.
Can you trade Vikings vs Packers on Kalshi?
Yes β as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15MINGB. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game β result, hit or miss, closing-line value β so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
What happens on Kalshi if Vikings vs Packers ends in a tie?
Your position is not voided. On a team contract with no Tie strike listed, Yes and No holders are each paid 50c a contract, and overtime counts toward the result. A player prop on someone who never plays settles at the last fair price rather than refunding, and a game postponed more than 48 hours resolves at a fair price. Every rule is at predictionmarketspicks.com/kalshi/settlement-rules.
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The first meeting
These two already played once in 2026, back in Week 1. Division games are the pairings the model gets two swings at, and the second line usually moves off what the first one showed. VikingsβPackers, Week 1 β
After this one
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See the in-season NFL tools βPrediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only β not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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