Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns
Updated · model ratings
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH
Quick Answer
As of September 1, 2026, our model favors the Texans by 1.5 in Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns, NFL Week 10 2026 — 54% to win, and Browns 26th of 32, Texans 9th. Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE yet, so there is no price to compare: when it opens, Browns at 41c or below (or Texans at 49c or below) is where the model would take a position.
HOU
+2.0
CLE
-2.3
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Texans
54%
model win prob
Browns
46%
model win prob
Run this matchup yourself → Full PWR board for all 32 → Player prop gaps for this game →
54%
Madden 27
46%
Madden 27
KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE hasn't opened yet, so there is no price to compare. When it does, the model buys the Browns at 41c or below, or the Texans at 49c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The market column fills in automatically.
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The Ladder — Texans at Browns
All ladders →Our margin distribution against every Kalshi spread strike listed for this game. A single line says we lean one way; the ladder says whether that is about the middle of the distribution or its tail.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
| Rung | Market | Model | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns −0.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Browns −1.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Browns −2.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Browns −3.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Browns −4.5 | — | 🔒 | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Browns −6.5 | — | outside range | — | not listed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 more rungsBrowns −7.5 → Browns −14.5 · outside our published band, market only
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Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Power-rating comparison
Season outlook
10,000 simulated seasons on our preseason power ratings — real NFL tiebreakers, real 2026 schedule, no injuries or market prices. The season sim fits its own home-field (2.0 points, from played games); the game model above uses +2.5. How it works →
What the model sees in Texans at Browns
The Texans travel to face the Browns in Week 10. Our power ratings put the Browns 26th of 32 at -2.3 (Below Avg tier) and the Texans 9th at +2.0 (Playoff tier) — a 4.3-point gap that home field narrows to a 1.5-point line on the Texans, 54% to win. It rates as the 14th-widest of the 14 games in Week 10.
The defense wins the headline matchup here: the Texans grade +2.6 on that side of the ball (1st of 32) against a Browns offense at -4.0 (31st) — 6.5 points the wrong way for the offense. Going the other direction, the Texans offense (-1.3, 25th) meets the Browns defense (+1.9, 3rd), a 3.1-point gap. Special teams adds to it: the Texans grade +0.7, 8th in the league, against -0.2 (31st) on the other side — close to a point of hidden margin.
Zoom out to the full season and the model projects the Browns at 7.8 wins (favored in 6 of 17) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12) — 1.5 wins apart across the year. By win probability this is the 8th-hardest game on the Browns' schedule and the 9th-hardest on the Texans'.
The series is dead level: 7-7 across 14 regular-season meetings since 2002. They have also met 1 time in the playoffs. They last met in 2023: Browns won 36-22 in December. Over their last 4 meetings the Browns are 4-0. History says these two are hard to separate, which is the one place it agrees with the ratings.
Wind is the variable at this venue: Cleveland home games in November have run a median 16 mph across 11 games since 2015, at a median 42°F. Wind moves kicking and the deep passing game more than temperature does, and our model has no term for either — this is context to apply on top of the 54% number, not something already inside it.
Calibration check, because a near-even number is the easiest kind to overtrust: across 3266 walk-forward games (2013-2024) the model gave a side 50-55% in 870 of them, and those sides won 52%. The Texans at 54% are in that band. A margin that thin is why we would rather wait for a price than call it a lean.
No price exists for this game yet; KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE is not listed, and a model number is not a market number. Because the model is close to even here — 46% / 54% — the tradable window is narrow: Browns at 41c or below, Texans at 49c or below, and a pass on everything between. On near-coin-flips the opening price usually lands inside that window, which is why most games like this end up as no-position. Week 1's KXNFLGAME contracts opened in May 2026 and the rest of the slate lists as the season gets closer; this page picks up the price automatically when it does.
Prediction markets are not sportsbooks — you trade a contract that settles at $1 or $0, not a wager against a house line. Informational only; trade responsibly.
Texans vs Browns on Kalshi
- Kalshi event
- KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE
- Market-implied (Browns)
- not listed yet
- Our model (Browns)
- 46%
- Model vs market
- —
Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week and has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game to quote. When it opens, the model buys the Browns at 41c or below, or the Texans at 49c or below — a 5-point threshold either way. The numbers above fill in on their own.
Where Texans vs Browns trades
Each venue’s own price where we have one; Robinhood and Coinbase resell the Kalshi contract. Home-side price shown.
| Venue | Browns | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | not listed on Kalshi yet — opens week of the game | Trade on Kalshi → |
| Novig | not yet listed on Novig — $25 credit on a $10 deposit through our link | Sign-up offer → |
| Polymarket | no captured price for this game — international book | Sign-up offer → |
| Robinhoodsame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Robinhood → |
| Coinbasesame Kalshi contract | same Kalshi contract, not listed yet | Open Coinbase → |
| DraftKings Predictions | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| FanDuel Predicts | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
| Fanatics Markets | price not available — sign-up offer → | Sign-up offer → |
A price under a venue name is that venue’s own; Robinhood and Coinbase list the same Kalshi contract. DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts and Fanatics Markets run on exchanges we have no price feed for, so they carry an offer and no number. We earn a referral credit or commission when you sign up through these links; it never changes the price or the model. Disclosure.
Texans vs Browns — frequently asked
Who is favored in Texans vs Browns in Week 10?
Our power-rating model picks the Texans by 1.5 points, a 54% win probability over the Browns, for a projected score of Texans 19, Browns 18 on a ratings-implied 37.0-point total. The Browns rate 26th of 32 (-2.3) and the Texans 9th (+2.0); Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE yet, so the model line is the only number on the board.
What is the biggest mismatch in Texans vs Browns?
Browns offense (-4.0, 31st of 32) against Texans defense (+2.6, 1st) — 6.5 points of separation on our scale, the widest unit gap in the game. Special teams also tilts to the Texans (+0.7, 8th).
How do you take a position on Texans vs Browns?
The contract will be KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states. It has not opened yet; when it does, the model would take the Browns at 41c or below, or the Texans at 49c or below. There is no point spread — you buy a yes or no contract on a team and it settles at $1 or $0.
When and where do the Browns host the Texans?
Houston Texans visit the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, November 15, 2026 — a Sunday game in NFL Week 10, at Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH.
What does the model project for the Browns and Texans this season?
Across all 17 games the model projects the Browns at 7.8 wins (favored in 6) and the Texans at 9.3 (favored in 12). This game ranks 8th-hardest on the Browns' schedule and 9th-hardest on the Texans', by model win probability.
What are the Kalshi odds for Texans vs Browns?
Kalshi has not listed KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE yet, so there is no Kalshi price for this game — anyone quoting one is quoting something else. Kalshi opens NFL game markets week by week. When it opens, our model would take the Browns at 41c or below or the Texans at 49c or below, off a 1.5-point line.
Can you trade Texans vs Browns on Kalshi?
Yes — as an event contract, not a point spread. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to traders in all 50 states, and the Week 10 game market is KXNFLGAME-26NOV15HOUCLE. You buy a YES or NO contract on a team between 1c and 99c and it settles at $1 or $0, so the price you pay is the break-even probability. There is no vig baked into a line, and you can exit before kickoff at whatever the market is then paying.
How often does the model win when it is 54% on a team like the Texans?
52% of the time. Over 3266 walk-forward games from 2013-2024 — trained only on prior seasons, no market line as an input — the model put a team in the 50-55% range 870 times, and those teams won 52% of them. The Texans at 54% over the Browns sit in that band, off a 1.5-point model line. Straight-up across all 3266 graded games the model picked winners at 59.6%, with a Brier score of 0.236 against 0.25 for a coin flip.
Why read this pick instead of a preview from a big sports outlet?
Two things a bigger outlet does not do. The number is posted before kickoff against the live Kalshi price, so you can see where the model and the market disagree while it still matters. And the page keeps the call after the game — result, hit or miss, closing-line value — so the record is public. Every graded call is at predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record.
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See the in-season NFL tools →Prediction markets carry risk. Contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
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